中国流动人口的跨等级流动及其对流入城市住房选择的影响
Hierarchical migration patterns of China's floating population and their impact on the housing choices
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收稿日期: 2021-01-11 修回日期: 2021-11-17
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Received: 2021-01-11 Revised: 2021-11-17
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作者简介 About authors
穆学英(1992-), 女, 山东潍坊人, 博士生, 研究方向为城市地理、人口地理。E-mail:
妥善解决流动人口在流入城市的住房问题是实现流动人口市民化和提高新型城镇化发展质量的关键。本文基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,揭示了流动人口的跨等级流动格局,并探讨了跨等级流动对流动人口在流入城市住房选择的影响。研究发现:① 流动人口以跨等级向上流动为主,其中向上跨三级、两级流动的比例较大;② 不同流出地的流动人口在流入城市的住房选择存在显著差异,流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价越高,流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率越大;③ 流入城市的平均房价越高,流动人口获得商品房的概率越低,随着流入城市人均GDP的增加,流动人口购买商品房的概率先增后降,而购买不完全产权房的概率则恰恰相反;④ 随着流动人口跨越城市等级的增加,其获得住房产权的概率降低,而租赁正规住房的可能性增大。研究结果有助于深化理解流动人口在流入城市住房选择的地理根源,对进一步优化面向流动人口的住房政策具有参考意义。
关键词:
Access to homeownership profoundly affects floating population's social integration in the destination city and, in the long term, wealth accumulation. While housing differentiation within China's floating population has received increasing attention in the past two decades, the varied housing outcomes of the floating population experiencing different geographic mobility have been rarely investigated. Using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study employs logistic regression models to examine the association between migrants' hierarchical migration patterns and their housing outcomes in the destination city. The results show that the migration patterns of China's floating population are mostly featured by moving up along the urban hierarchy. There are significant disparities in housing outcomes among floating population with different origins and destinations. Migrants originating from cities with higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and average housing prices are more capable to afford a home in the destination city. Moving to cities with higher average housing prices implies fewer opportunities to purchase local commodity housing. As GDP per capita in destination cities increases, the probability of floating population purchasing commercial housing increases first but then decreases, while the probability of purchasing housing with incomplete property rights exhibits the opposite phenomenon. Furthermore, migrants making larger upward movements are less likely to own a home in the destination city, but more likely to rent formal housing. This study highlights the role of geographical mobility between different origins and destinations in affecting floating population's housing outcomes in the destination city and furthermore provides insight into understanding housing inequality.
Keywords:
本文引用格式
穆学英, 崔璨, 崔军茹, 王洁晶.
MU Xueying, CUI Can, CUI Junru, WANG Jiejing.
1 引言
《中国流动人口发展报告2018》显示,2017年流动人口规模达2.44亿[1]。在城乡差异和区域差异的驱动下,流动人口规模空前,同时也正经历着结构性变革。不同于以往单一的乡城流动模式,人口在不同规模和等级城市之间流动日益增加[2,3],跨越城市等级的向上、向下流动也开始受到关注[4]。如此大规模的人口流动,关乎流动人口自身的发展和流入、流出城市的人力资本积累,影响新型城镇化发展质量[5,6,7]。住房是广大居民安居乐业的基础,满足流动人口的住房需求,对推进流动人口社会融合和市民化进程、推动人口城镇化高质量发展具有重要现实意义[8,9]。深入分析不同流出地的流动人口在不同流入城市的住房选择,有助于因城施策,优化面向流动人口的住房政策。
近年来,随着产业的转型升级和高等教育的普及,流动人口在社会经济属性、流动特征等方面表现出较强异质性,在流入城市的住房自有率不断提升,住房类型趋于多样化[10]。过往关于流动人口在流入城市住房选择的研究主要关注住房权属、类型和质量,从微观的个人、家庭视角和宏观的住房市场视角,分析流动人口住房选择行为的影响因素。在微观层面,研究发现具有较高收入和受教育水平、非农户口、体制内工作、以及在外流动时间长、居留意愿强的流动人口,在流入城市的住房条件相对较好[11,12]。在宏观层面,流入地城市的住房市场、住房政策影响流动人口的住房选择[13]。相较于中小城市,大城市较高的房价收入比、收紧的房地产调控政策在不同程度上抑制了流动人口在流入城市的购房行为[14,15,16];在东部地区,城中村、小产权房等非正规住房成为流动人口的重要选择[17]。然而,流出地的空间资本以及流动跨越的城市等级等因素对流动人口在流入城市住房选择的影响尚未得到足够重视。
“地理出身”作为先赋性因素,对流动个体的认知能力、受教育水平、经济积累、社会资本、未来发展均会产生深远影响[18,19,20]。区域间的不均衡发展一定程度上造成了“社会空间等级”现象,是塑造个体地位差异的关键因素之一[21]。首先,城乡二元结构导致城乡之间在基础设施、居民收入、资源配置等方面存在较大差距,来自农村的流动人口社会经济基础较差,在社会融入、社会保障等方面面临更多障碍[22],往往较难在流入城市获得自有住房[23]。不同社会经济发展水平的城市之间也存在较大差异,流出城市的等级越高,其流出人口越可能积累更多的资源和人力资本[24]。研究表明来自发达地区的流动人口在劳动市场中的表现更为优秀,更容易获得较高的工资收入[25,26]。另外,流出地的房价水平影响流动人口经济资本的积累[27]。已有研究表明流动人口在流出地的住房投资较为普遍[28],而自有住房是个人资产的重要组成部分,从而在一定程度上影响其在流入地购房的经济能力。由此可推测,流出地的社会经济发展水平越高,赋予流动人口的资本越多,则其在流入地获得住房的概率越大。
流出地与流入地的社会经济发展差距不仅是人口流动的主因,而且影响流动人口在流入城市的住房选择。不止于城乡,城市之间的差距已然成为人口流动的重要动因,跨越城市等级向上成为人口流动的普遍模式[4]。一般而言,跨越城市等级向上流动的人口更容易从职业发展机会较少、工资水平和生活质量较低的地区迁移至职业发展机遇较多、工资水平和生活质量较高的地区,实现向上的社会流动[29,30,31,32,33]。然而,向上跨越等级越多的流动人口,其流出地与流入地的在社会经济发展上的差距越大,意味着流出地能够赋予流动人口的初始资本与流入地消费之间的差距增加,流动人口在流入地的经济压力加大,购房概率随之降低。此外,“相对剥夺感”也会随向上跨越等级的增加而愈加显著,流动人口的购房意愿也会随之降低[34]。由此可推测,向上跨越城市等级越多的流动人口,其在流入地获得自有住房的概率越小。
综上所述,流出城市属性、流入城市属性、流动跨越的城市等级等宏观因素均对流动人口的住房选择产生重要影响。本文利用2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,从地理视角出发,揭示流动人口跨等级流动格局,探讨流出地的空间资本、流入城市的经济发展水平、流出地与流入地的等级差异对流动人口住房选择的影响,以期为优化面向流动人口的住房政策、实现流动人口的城市安居梦和推动新型城镇化进程提供实证依据。
2 数据来源与研究方法
2.1 数据来源
流动人口的个体数据来源于2017年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查(China Migrants Dynamic Survey, CMDS)。该调查以2016年全员流动人口年报数据为基本抽样框,采取分层、多阶段、与流动人口规模呈比例的概率抽样方法,调查范围覆盖全国31个省(区、市)和新疆生产建设兵团。调查对象为在流入地居住一个月及以上、非本区(县、市)户口的15周岁及以上的流入人口。调查内容涵盖个人的社会经济属性、流动特征、流出地所属城市、流入地所属城市以及在流入城市的住房类型等。本文以地级及以上城市为研究单元(以下简称城市①(①本文以地级及以上城市为基本研究单元,文中所涉及的“城市”指的是“城市的行政管辖范围”,而非“实体城市”。)),关注流动人口在流入城市的住房选择,故在分析样本中剔除现居住地为村委会、住房性质为自建房②(②CMDS数据将自建房界定为由受访者出资兴建并拥有产权的住房。考虑到自建房多是当地村民在自己的宅基地或村集体建设用地上兴建,流动人口一般不太可能拥有自建房的产权,选择“自建房”的受访者可能多为租赁自建房。因无法甄别“自建房”是否为受访者所自有,故本文排除了选择“自建房”的样本。)的流动人口。去除有缺失和遗漏项的样本,本文最终筛选得到的样本来自全国291个地级及以上城市,共98992份。城市属性数据来源于《中国城市统计年鉴(2018)》和中国房价行情网。
2.2 关键变量与描述性统计
流动人口在流入城市的住房权属和住房类型是本文关注的两个因变量。住房权属分租赁住房和自有住房两类。为全面反映流动人口住房选择,根据产权性质、住房质量,将住房类型划分为4类:第一类为租赁非正规住房,包括合租房、借住房、就业场所、其他非正规场所;第二类为租赁正规住房,包括整租房、公租房和租住单位或雇主提供的住房;第三类为自购不完全产权房,包括不具有效产权证的自购小产权房和产权转移受限的自购保障性住房;第四类为自购商品房。
本文的研究重点是揭示流动人口流出城市属性、流入城市属性、流动跨越的城市等级与流入城市住房选择的关系。因此,核心解释变量为流出城市和流入城市属性、跨等级流动类型。从“户籍地所在的区县”字段获得流动人口流出地所在城市的信息,从“现居住的市”字段获得流动人口流入城市信息。为探讨流出地的空间资本、流入城市的经济发展水平对流动人口住房选择行为的影响,本文选择流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价表征流出地赋予流动人口的空间机会和空间资本;选择流入城市的人均GDP和平均房价代表流入城市的经济发展水平和住房消费成本。此外,借鉴Plane等[35]提出的跨(城市)等级流动概念,尝试刻画流动人口在城市等级体系中的流动格局。为反映流出地与流入地在社会经济等方面的差异对流动人口住房选择行为的影响,选取了与城市经济社会发展状况、住房市场和政策等因素密切关联的城市等级③(③根据“第一财经新一线城市研究所”发布的2017中国城市等级排名名单,城市被划分为6个等级(一线城市、新一线城市、二线城市、三线城市、四线城市和五线城市)
借鉴已有文献[38],本文将其他可能影响流动人口住房选择行为的因素分为3类,分别是社会经济属性、流动特征、过客心理与社会交往。如表1所示,流动人口的住房类型以租赁正规住房为主,自购商品房和租赁非正规住房次之。从社会经济属性看,男性、新生代、已婚、具有农业户口和初中学历、从事商业服务、在非体制内工作、无承包地、有宅基地的流动人口占多数。从流动特征看,流动人口呈现出明显的家庭式迁移特征(共同居住家庭成员人数平均为3.11人),离开流出地的平均年限为12 a,平均迁移次数约为2次,且以近距离的省内迁移为主。有长期居留意愿的流动人口的占比为42.53%,社会交往以“与本地人交往”为主,占比为35.42%。从地理因素来看,流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价均低于流入城市;流动人口的跨等级流动类型以同级流动为主,其次为向上跨三级和向上跨两级流动。
表1 样本基本情况(N = 98992)
Tab. 1
变量名称 | 百分比(%)/均值 | 变量名称 | 百分比(%)/均值 |
---|---|---|---|
住房类型 | 家庭月收入(元) | 7584.04 | |
租赁非正规住房 | 12.83 | 单位性质 | |
租赁正规住房 | 55.81 | 其他 | 93.12 |
自购不完全产权房 | 3.52 | 公有制 | 6.88 |
自购商品房 | 27.84 | 宅基地 | |
社会经济属性 | 有宅基地 | 55.27 | |
性别 | 无宅基地 | 44.73 | |
女性 | 49.72 | 流动特征 | |
男性 | 50.28 | 共同居住的家庭成员数(人/户) | 3.11 |
世代 | 离开流出地的时长(a) | 12.00 | |
老生代 | 37.23 | 迁移次数(次) | 1.96 |
新生代 | 62.77 | 迁移距离 | |
户口性质 | 省内迁移 | 54.70 | |
农业户口 | 80.43 | 跨省迁移 | 45.30 |
非农业户口 | 19.57 | 过客心理与社会交往 | |
婚姻状况 | 社会交往 | ||
未婚、离异或丧偶 | 18.61 | 与本地人交往 | 35.42 |
已婚 | 81.39 | 户口迁到本地的同乡 | 6.24 |
教育水平 | 户口在老家的同乡 | 10.91 | |
小学及以下 | 11.86 | 其他外来人口 | 25.55 |
初中 | 41.04 | 很少与人交往 | 21.88 |
高中及中专 | 24.42 | 长期居留意愿 | 42.53 |
大专及以上 | 22.68 | 地理因素 | |
职业类型 | 城市属性 | ||
国家机关负责人或公务员 | 2.33 | 流出城市人均GDP(元) | 22821.85 |
专业技术人员 | 9.04 | 流出城市平均房价(元/m2) | 8273.25 |
商业服务人员 | 56.12 | 流入城市人均GDP(元) | 62815.75 |
农业及产业工人 | 14.56 | 流入城市平均房价(元/m2) | 18302.82 |
无固定职业者、其他 | 3.71 | 跨等级流动类型 | |
无工作者 | 14.24 | 同级流动 | 31.27 |
承包地 | 向上跨一级流动 | 12.95 | |
没有承包地 | 51.14 | 向上跨两级流动 | 18.16 |
有承包地但没流转 | 36.88 | 向上跨三级流动 | 18.29 |
有承包地且流转 | 6.34 | 向上跨四或五级流动 | 9.49 |
不清楚 | 5.64 | 向下流动 | 9.84 |
2.3 方法
将流动人口在流入城市的住房状况按权属分为自有产权住房和租赁住房,采用二项Logistic模型分析其影响因素。模型如下:
式中:
将流动人口在流入城市的住房类型细分为租赁非正规住房、租赁正规住房、自购不完全产权房和自购商品房4类,采用多项Logistic回归模型[39],分析流动人口在流入城市住房选择的影响因素。模型如下:
式中:b为选定的参照组(以租赁非正规住房为参照组);j为住房类型的类别,j = 1, 2, …, J;
通过求解方程(2),得到流动人口在流入城市选择不同住房类型的概率:
式中:
3 实证分析与结果
3.1 流动人口的跨等级流动格局
图1
图1
2017年中国流动人口的跨等级流动格局
Fig. 1
Hierarchical migration patterns of the floating population in China, 2017
图1b展示的为城市的净迁移量占迁移总量的比例,反映了不同等级城市之间的人口迁移效率④(④人口迁移效率指流出城市、流入城市之间人口的净迁移量与流出城市、流入城市迁移总量的比值。),在一定程度上体现了不同等级城市之间的人口拉力和推力。一线城市与其他等级城市之间的迁移效率普遍较高,表明一线城市对人口的拉力明显大于推力,并且这种拉力对低等级城市(三线城市、四线城市和五线城市)人口的牵引作用尤为显著。新一线城市与四线城市之间的迁移效率最大,为90.31%。值得注意的是,从四线城市向五线城市的跨等级向下流动相对较为明显,核实数据发现,此类人群多因经商而流动。
3.2 流动人口的住房选择特征
图2展示了2017年流入不同等级城市的人口在住房选择上的差异。总体来看,中低等级城市的流入人口获得住房产权的比例较高,其中,四线城市流入人口购房的比例最高,其次为三线城市和五线城市,分别占各等级城市流入总量的39.39%、35.74%和30.45%。具体来看,流动人口购买商品房的比例与流入城市等级之间存在倒“U”型关系,流动人口在五线城市以及高等级城市购买商品房的比例较低。在获得保障性住房以及自购小产权住房上,流入中小城市人口具有一定优势,其中流入五线城市的人口获得小产权房的比例最高。有趣的是,公租房占比最高的是新一线城市,而非一线城市,整租房占比最高的是二线城市。
图2
图2
2017年中国流入不同等级城市的流动人口住房选择
Fig. 2
Floating population's housing choices in the destination city in China, 2017
跨越不同城市等级的流动人口在住房选择上同样存在明显差异(图3)。总体来看,流动人口在流入城市租房的比例随着其跨越城市等级的增加而增大,购房比例则相反,呈下降趋势。具体来看,购买商品房、保障性住房和小产权房的比例随跨越城市等级的增加而降低,在同级流动人口中的占比最大。同级流动的人口获得公租房的比例也较高。整租房的比例随跨越城市等级的增加呈先增加后下降的趋势,在向上跨三级流动中的占比最大。获得单位/雇主房的比例随着跨越城市等级的增加而增大。值得注意的是,相较于跨等级向上流动的人口,向下流动的人口在获得住房产权上并未表现出明显优势,其租赁非正规居所的比例较高,特别是借住房和就业场所。
图3
图3
2017年中国流动人口跨等级流动与住房选择
Fig. 3
Housing choices of the floating population with different hierarchical migration patterns in China, 2017
3.3 流动人口在流入城市住房选择的影响因素
使用二项Logistic模型分析流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的影响因素,结果如表2所示。在控制流动人口的社会经济属性、流动特征、过客心理与社会交往等变量的基础上,模型1加入了流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价、流入城市的人均GDP和平均房价等城市属性因子,以分析流出城市属性和流入城市属性对流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的影响。为探究流动人口的跨等级流动与住房产权获得之间的关系,模型2加入了跨等级流动类型。
表2 流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的Logistic模型结果
Tab. 2
自变量 | 模型1 | 模型2 | 自变量 | 模型1 | 模型2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
地理因素 | 单位性质为公有制(参考组:其他) | 1.135*** | 1.150*** | ||
城市属性 | 家庭月收入(对数) | 2.007*** | 1.735*** | ||
流出城市人均GDP(对数) | 1.082*** | 承包地(参考组:没有) | |||
流出城市平均房价(对数) | 1.183*** | 有承包地但没流转 | 1.282*** | 1.317*** | |
流入城市人均GDP(对数) | 1.501* | 有承包地且流转 | 1.576*** | 1.635*** | |
流入城市人均GDP(对数)的平方项 | 1.501* | 不清楚 | 0.997 | 0.981 | |
流入城市平均房价(对数) | 0.514** | 有宅基地(参考组:无宅基地) | 0.585*** | 0.564*** | |
流入城市平均房价(对数)的平方项 | 1.002 | 流动特征 | |||
跨等级流动类型(同级流动) | 共同居住的家庭成员数(人/户) | 1.140*** | 1.159*** | ||
向上跨一级流动 | 0.714*** | 离开流出地的时长(a) | 1.039*** | 1.035*** | |
向上跨两级流动 | 0.740*** | 迁移次数(次) | 0.841*** | 0.849*** | |
向上跨三级流动 | 0.599*** | 迁移距离(参考组:省内迁移) | |||
向上跨四或五级流动 | 0.460*** | 跨省迁移 | 0.746*** | 0.674*** | |
向下流动 | 0.971 | 过客心理与社会交往 | |||
社会经济属性 | 社会交往(参考组:与本地人交往) | ||||
男性(参考组:女性) | 0.950*** | 0.971* | 户口迁到本地的同乡 | 1.009 | 0.964 |
新生代(参考组:老生代) | 0.852*** | 0.862*** | 户口在老家的同乡 | 0.594*** | 0.529*** |
非农业户口(参考组:农业户口) | 1.049* | 1.041 | 其他外来人口 | 0.514*** | 0.479*** |
已婚(参考组:未婚、离异或丧偶) | 2.117*** | 2.150*** | 很少与人交往 | 0.703*** | 0.666*** |
教育水平(参考组:小学及以下) | 长期居留意愿 | 4.107*** | 3.884*** | ||
初中 | 1.408*** | 1.385*** | 常数项 | 0.001*** | 0.001*** |
高中及中专 | 1.753*** | 1.685*** | 样本数 | 98992 | 98992 |
大专及以上 | 2.640*** | 2.465*** | Pseudo R2 | 0.236 | 0.225 |
职业类型(参考组:国家机关负责人或公务员) | Log likelihood | -47022.174 | -47690.186 | ||
专业技术人员 | 0.822*** | 0.805*** | 准确预测的比率(%) | 76.71 | 76.21 |
商业服务人员 | 0.666*** | 0.685*** | Wald 检验(chi2) | 29084.31 | 27748.28 |
农业及产业工人 | 0.769*** | 0.778*** | |||
无固定职业者、其他 | 0.883* | 0.880* | |||
无工作 | 1.342*** | 1.367*** |
注:表中结果为几率比(odds ratio);* :p < 0.10,** :p < 0.05, *** :p < 0.01。
模型1结果显示,流出城市属性和流入城市属性均显著影响流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率。从流出地来看,流动人口流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价越高,其在流入城市获得住房产权的概率越大。流出城市的人均GDP每增加一个单位,流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的几率比增加8%;而流出城市的平均房价每增加一个单位,流动人口购房的几率比增加18%。这表明流出地赋予流动人口的空间机会和空间资本显著影响了流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率,验证了“地理出身”的重要性。从流入地来看,流入城市的人均GDP与流入人口获得住房产权的概率之间呈倒“U”型关系。可能的原因是在流出地相同的情况下,流向人均GDP较高城市的流动人口不仅能获得更多的职业发展机会,更容易积累人力资本,还能提高流动人口生活满意度[40,41,42],从而增加流动人口在流入城市购房的概率;而当流入城市的人均GDP超过一定阈值时,流动人口在流入城市的生活成本、经济压力、“相对剥夺感”等均显著增加,抑制了流动人口在流入城市的购房行为。流入城市的平均房价对流动人口的住房产权获得具有显著负向影响。随着流入城市房价升高,流动人口在流入城市的购房压力持续增大,购房概率也随之降低。
模型2结果显示,不同类型的跨等级流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权方面存在明显差异。向上跨越的城市等级越多,流动人口需要背负的经济负担越重,受到的制度性约束越明显,从而降低了流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率。同级流动的人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率最高,其获得住房的几率比是向上跨一级或两级流动人口的1.4倍,是向上跨三级流动人口的1.7倍,是向上跨四或五级流动人口的2.2倍。
社会经济属性、流动特征、过客心理与社会交往在一定程度上解释了流动人口在流入城市住房产权获得上的分异。在社会经济属性方面,老生代、已婚、具有非农户口和承包地、教育水平和家庭年收入较高的流动人口拥有更多的资本,更容易在流入城市购买住房。女性流动人口在住房产权获得上的优势也较为凸显。这是因为在婚姻市场中,女性具有明显的“向上匹配”偏好,倾向寻找社会经济条件较自己优越的配偶,“上嫁”到区位条件更好的地区[43]。与在流入城市已获得住房产权的当地户籍人口结婚成为女性流动人口在流入城市安居的重要途径。没有宅基地的流动人口更倾向于在流入城市购房。制度性因素对流动人口在流入城市购房具有显著影响。在公有制单位工作的流动人口更容易在流入城市获得住房产权。无工作的流动人口在住房产权获得方面有明显优势,这部分流动人口以料理家务女性、怀孕期女性、退休老人为主,其所在家庭往往积累了较多资本,有能力在流入城市购房。在流动特征方面,共同居住的家庭成员人数越多、离开流出城市时间越长、迁移次数越少,流动人口在流入城市获得住房的概率越大。与已有研究结果相似[12, 44],远距离跨省迁移的流动人口面临更多的制度性和结构性的障碍,不易在流入城市购房。从过客心理与社会交往来看,具有长期居留意愿、经常与本地人交往的流动人口在流入城市购房的概率更大。
为进一步揭示流动人口在流入城市住房类型方面的影响因素,本文采用多项Logistic模型,对流动人口的住房类型选择进行分析,以租赁非正规住房为参照组,比较其与租赁正规住房、自购不完全产权房和自购商品房的差异,结果如表3所示。模型1的结果反映了城市属性(流出城市和流入城市)对流动人口住房类型选择的影响;模型2的结果显示了跨等级流动对流动人口住房类型选择的影响。
表3 流动人口在流入城市住房类型选择的多项Logistic模型结果(参考组: 租赁非正规住房)
Tab. 3
模型1 | 模型2 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
租赁正规住房 | 不完全产权房 | 自购商品房 | 租赁正规住房 | 不完全产权房 | 自购商品房 | |
地理因素 | ||||||
城市属性 | ||||||
流出城市人均GDP(对数) | 0.958*** | 1.056* | 1.042** | |||
流出城市平均房价(对数) | 0.943* | 0.970 | 1.143*** | |||
流入城市人均GDP(对数) | 1.431 | 0.319** | 2.567*** | |||
流入城市人均GDP(对数)的平方项 | 0.986 | 1.072*** | 0.957*** | |||
流入城市平均房价(对数) | 1.807* | 0.030*** | 1.667 | |||
流入城市平均房价(对数)的平方项 | 0.967* | 1.149*** | 0.942*** | |||
跨等级流动类型(同级流动) | ||||||
向上跨一级流动 | 1.099*** | 0.778*** | 0.773*** | |||
向上跨两级流动 | 1.051 | 0.835*** | 0.766*** | |||
向上跨三级流动 | 1.137*** | 0.698*** | 0.665*** | |||
向上跨四或五级流动 | 1.060 | 0.562*** | 0.475*** | |||
向下流动 | 0.838*** | 0.844** | 0.840*** | |||
社会经济属性 | ||||||
男性(参考组:女性) | 1.052** | 0.901** | 1.001 | 1.057*** | 0.927* | 1.027 |
新生代(参考组:老生代) | 0.932*** | 0.931 | 0.787*** | 0.934*** | 0.952 | 0.797*** |
非农业户口(参考组:农业户口) | 1.016 | 0.950 | 1.080* | 1.009 | 0.934 | 1.065 |
已婚(参考组:未婚、离异或丧偶) | 1.481*** | 2.631*** | 2.947*** | 1.487*** | 2.716*** | 2.994*** |
教育水平(参考组:小学及以下) | ||||||
初中 | 1.179*** | 1.337*** | 1.679*** | 1.175*** | 1.289*** | 1.650*** |
高中及中专 | 1.345*** | 1.724*** | 2.360*** | 1.331*** | 1.592*** | 2.257*** |
大专及以上 | 1.174*** | 1.892*** | 3.230*** | 1.151*** | 1.696*** | 2.973*** |
职业类型(参考组:国家机关负责人或公务员) | ||||||
专业技术人员 | 1.138 | 1.023 | 0.905 | 1.135 | 1.018 | 0.882 |
商业服务人员 | 1.020 | 0.701** | 0.674*** | 1.028 | 0.720** | 0.699*** |
农业及产业工人 | 1.110 | 1.171 | 0.803** | 1.115 | 1.212 | 0.815** |
无固定职业者、其他 | 0.962 | 1.111 | 0.824* | 0.963 | 1.141 | 0.819* |
无工作 | 1.092 | 1.814*** | 1.393*** | 1.100 | 1.891*** | 1.425*** |
单位性质为公有制(参考组:其他) | 1.142*** | 1.582*** | 1.236*** | 1.137*** | 1.609*** | 1.247*** |
家庭月收入(对数) | 1.364*** | 1.306*** | 2.833*** | 1.327*** | 1.104** | 2.392*** |
承包地(参考组:没有) | ||||||
有承包地但没流转 | 0.942** | 1.273*** | 1.213*** | 0.945** | 1.306*** | 1.250*** |
有承包地且流转 | 1.072 | 1.797*** | 1.655*** | 1.078 | 1.903*** | 1.721*** |
不清楚 | 1.024 | 0.926 | 1.028 | 1.016 | 0.887 | 1.010 |
有宅基地(参考组:无宅基地) | 0.965 | 0.515*** | 0.578*** | 0.957* | 0.470*** | 0.557*** |
流动特征 | ||||||
共同居住的家庭成员数(人/户) | 1.058*** | 1.276*** | 1.185*** | 1.065*** | 1.306*** | 1.211*** |
离开流出地的时长(a) | 0.997** | 1.049*** | 1.034*** | 0.996** | 1.047*** | 1.030*** |
迁移次数(次) | 0.961*** | 0.805*** | 0.816*** | 0.962*** | 0.800*** | 0.825*** |
迁移距离(参考组:省内迁移) | ||||||
跨省迁移 | 0.952** | 0.545*** | 0.741*** | 0.950** | 0.518*** | 0.663*** |
过客心理与社会交往 | ||||||
社会交往(参考组:与本地人交往) | ||||||
户口迁到本地的同乡 | 0.978 | 0.728*** | 1.025 | 0.975 | 0.721*** | 0.974 |
户口在老家的同乡 | 0.870*** | 0.521*** | 0.529*** | 0.854*** | 0.480*** | 0.461*** |
其他外来人口 | 0.878*** | 0.430*** | 0.465*** | 0.870*** | 0.408*** | 0.429*** |
很少与人交往 | 0.975 | 0.619*** | 0.698*** | 0.966 | 0.590*** | 0.655*** |
长期居留意愿 | 1.061** | 4.549*** | 4.285*** | 1.051** | 4.314*** | 4.011*** |
常数项 | 0.004*** | 2.065e+08*** | 0.000*** | 0.237*** | 0.022*** | 0.000*** |
样本数 | 98992 | 98992 | ||||
Pseudo R2 | 0.150 | 0.143 | ||||
Log likelihood | -89390.46 | -90131.94 | ||||
AIC | 1.810 | 1.825 | ||||
BIC | -957787.182 | -956304.222 | ||||
Wald 检验(chi2) | 31599.78 | 30116.82 |
注:表中结果为几率比(odds ratio);*:p < 0.10;**:p < 0.05;***:p < 0.01。
模型1结果表明,不同流出城市和流入城市的流动人口在住房类型选择方面存在明显差异。从流出地来看,控制了社会经济属性、流动特征、过客心理与社会交往等变量后,流出城市的人均GDP对流动人口在流入城市的住房类型选择具有显著影响,流出城市的人均GDP每增加一个单位,流动人口在流入城市购买不完全产权房和商品房的几率比分别增加5%和4%。流出城市的人均GDP越高,表明流出地为流动人口提供的空间机会则越多,越有利于流动人口获得资源和积累社会资本,增加了流动人口在流入城市获得自有住房的概率。流出城市的平均房价对流动人口住房类型选择的影响更多地体现在获得商品房上,流出城市的平均房价每增加一个单位,流动人口可获得的经济资本随之增加,在流入城市购买商品房的几率比增加14%。从流入地来看,流入城市的人均GDP对流动人口获得不同住房类型的作用不尽相同。随着流入城市人均GDP的增加,流动人口购买商品房的概率先增后降,而购买不完全产权房的概率则恰恰相反。这是因为,流入城市的人均GDP越高,流动人口获得的职业发展机会越多,越容易积累人力资本、提升相对社会地位和生活满意度[40,41,42],从而更可能通过购买商品房实现安居;而当流入城市的人均GDP超过一定阈值时,流动人口在流入城市的生存成本提高、经济和社会等压力加大,会降低其获得商品房的概率,多数流动人口会选择小产权房和保障性住房来实现在流入城市的安居。流入城市的平均房价对流动人口住房类型选择的影响也不尽相同。流入城市的平均房价越高,流动人口购买商品房的概率越低,而购买不完全产权房的概率呈“先降后增”趋势。这在一定程度上表明,当房价过高时,不完全产权房为流动人口实现“安居梦”提供了重要途径。流动人口租赁正规住房的概率与流入城市的平均房价之间存在倒“U”型关系。这是因为当房价在阈值的左侧时,随着房价的升高,较高的住房市场化程度以及较为完善的住房保障体系会增加流动人口租赁正规住房的概率;而当房价超过某个阈值时,较高的市场租赁价格以及紧缩的住房政策在一定程度上降低了流动人口租赁整租房和获得政府提供公租房的概率。
跨越不同城市等级的流动人口在住房类型选择方面存在较大差异(表3模型2)。总体来看,向上跨越的城市等级越高,获得不完全产权房和自购商品房的概率越低。其中,同级流动的人口在流入城市获得不完全产权房和商品房的几率比最高,分别是向上跨四或五级流动人口1.8倍和2.1倍。随着向上跨越城市等级的增加,流动人口在流入地受到的经济压力、制度性和结构性排斥增加,所感受到的“相对剥夺感”增强,降低了其购房的概率。与租赁非正规住房相比,向上跨越城市等级越高的流动人口越有可能流向一个市场化程度高、住房保障体系完善的城市,增加了其租赁正规住房的可能性。另外,相较于同级流动的人口,向下流动的人口更倾向于租赁非正规住房。这是由于向下流动的人口中经商比例较大,为降低住房成本,就业场所、借住房等非正规住房成为这部分流动人口住房的主要选择。
社会经济属性、流动特征、过客心理与社会交往也影响着流动人口在流入地的住房类型选择。老生代、已婚、高学历以及在公有制单位工作的流动人口在住房类型选择方面有明显优势,容易租赁正规住房或购房。相较于男性流动人口,女性流动人口更有可能与当地户籍人口结婚,在一定程度上增加了其获得不完全产权房的概率。与表2中的模型结果相似,无工作的流动人口在购买商品房和不完全产权房方面具有突出优势。承包地对流动人口住房类型选择的影响较为复杂。一方面,流动人口的承包地具有社会保障功能,增加了流动人口购房的可能性,农地流转也减少了流动人口与农村、农业的刚性联系,提高了其在城市就业的稳定性[38],进一步提升流动人口购买不完全产权房和商品房的概率;另一方面,对于那些有承包地且需自营的流动人口,他们的城市身份认同感相对较低[45],更倾向以较低的成本解决住房问题,不太容易租赁正规住房。拥有宅基地的流动人口较少获得自有住房,租赁非正规住房成为常态。在流动特征方面,共同居住的家庭成员人数越多、离开流出地的时间越长,流动人口越有容易在流入城市积累更多的社会经济资本、实现安居梦。而具有较多迁移次数和远距离跨省迁移的流动人口在流入城市不太容易租赁正规住房、获得自有产权房,可能与受到的制度性和结构性排斥较大相关。从过客心理与社会交往来看,有长期居留意愿、经常与本地人交往的流动人口则倾向于购买住房或租赁正规住房。
4 结论与讨论
4.1 结论
不同城市在社会经济发展水平、住房市场和政策制度等方面存在的差异对流动人口的住房选择有着较强的解释力。本文从地理视角出发,刻画了流动人口跨等级流动格局,探讨了流动人口的跨等级流动与住房权属和类型选择之间的关系。利用2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据进行了实证检验,主要结论如下:
(1)流动人口的跨等级流动格局呈现出明显的阶梯性,以跨等级向上流动为主。流动人口的迁移占比随跨越城市等级的增加呈“先上升后下降”趋势,向上跨越三个等级和两个等级的流动人口占比较大。区域之间在社会、经济等方面的差异是人口流动的首要原因[46],乡—城流动仍然是流动人口的主要流动形式。不同等级城市对人口的拉力和推力不同,相较于新一线城市和二线城市,一线城市对低等级城市(三线城市、四线城市和五线城市)的拉力尤为显著。跨等级向下流动主要表现为人口从五线城市向四线城市的流动。
(2)流出城市属性对流动人口在流入城市的住房选择有显著影响,反映了“地理出身”的重要性。研究表明,流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价越高,流动人口在流入城市获得商品房的概率越大。这表明城市之间空间资本的差异影响了流动人口的资本积累,从而影响在流入城市获得住房的概率。人均GDP和房价越高的城市赋予流动人口的空间机会和空间资本越多,越有利于流动人口积累资源、提升人力资本利用效率,从而可以增加其获得住房的概率。
(4)跨等级流动类型是解释流动人口住房选择的重要视角,不同类型跨等级流动人口的住房选择明显不同。向上跨越的城市等级越多,意味着流出城市赋予流动人口的初始资本与流入城市消费水平之间差距越大,流动人口在流入城市的经济压力和感受到的相对剥夺感也随之增大,从而降低了其获得不完全产权房和自购商品房的概率。而随着向上跨越城市等级的增加,流动人口越容易流向一个市场化程度较高、住房保障体系较为完善的城市,增加其在流入城市租赁正规住房的概率。
4.2 讨论
住房是透视社会结构的重要视角,已有的研究多从生命历程理论、市场转型论和权利持续论的视角对流动人口的住房进行探究,揭示微观层面的个体因素对流动人口住房选择的影响。本文将地理因素纳入住房研究的框架中,通过分析流出地、流入地以及跨等级流动类型与流动人口住房选择之间的关系,探讨影响流入人口住房选择的地理根源,揭示空间属性的内在含义。对应于根植于家庭背景的先赋性因素——社会出身[49],“地理出身”也是一种先赋性因素,源于地区之间发展的不均衡,并深深嵌于个人的社会经济属性中,关系到个人的认知能力、受教育水平、经济积累和社会关系等,深刻影响着流动人口的住房选择。地理流动成为人口摆脱自然禀赋锁定、经济禀赋锁定,提升个体或家庭社会经济地位的重要途径。同级流动(乡—城、城—城)的人口不仅能获得更好的发展机会,还更有可能在流入城市购买自有产权房,从而实现安居梦。
探讨流出地的空间资本、流入城市的经济发展水平、流出地与流入地的等级差异与流动人口住房选择之间的关系,对完善流动人口的住房政策具有启发意义:① 从流出地来看,需正视区域差异背后的空间结构和出生地效应,加强对落后地区基础教育和设施的投入,缓解资源和机会在社会成员中配置的不均衡,缩小不同地区流动人口的资本禀赋差异;② 从流入地来看,需要从“点”入手、因城施策,引导不同等级城市完善流动人口的住房保障政策、持续提升公共服务均等化水平。
本文尚存几个值得继续深入探讨的问题:① 文中以地级及以上城市为研究单元,只关注流动人口的流出地(户籍地)和当前流入地(现居地),之后可借鉴与流动过程或再次流动相关的研究[50,51],完善流动人口的流动格局;② 文中采用城市等级这一综合性指标构建了城市等级体系,未来可结合城市规模、城市行政等级尝试建立其他类型的城市等级体系;③ 文中采用的微观个体数据(CMDS数据)的代表性存在一定的局限,未来可探索抽样更为完备的其他数据集,如人口普查数据等,来更为精准地刻画人口流动格局;④ 流动人口的定居意愿与住房选择密切相关,有必要进一步探究两者之间的复杂关系;⑤ 需加强群体异质性和影响机制分析,进一步探究新生代与老生代流动人口在住房选择上的差异、承包地与宅基地对流动人口住房选择的影响机制。
参考文献
Spatial distribution, flowing rules and forming mechanism of inter-cities floating population in China
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The population flow between cities not only reflects the choice of the urban population who voted with their feet based on different development levels of urban economy, society, and public services, but also exerts a direct bearing on the success of rational and orderly movement of population, coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and the new-type urbanization strategies. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the spatial flowing laws and driving mechanism of urban-to-urban population flows in China for realizing rational and orderly distribution of population and the new-type urbanization strategy. In the context of the increasing amounts of urban-to-urban floating population in China, this paper discusses the results, processes, and causes of the spatial mobility of floating population in urban areas based on data of population census and dynamic monitoring of floating population. In addition, it studies the spatial distribution, flow trajectory and forming mechanism of urban-to-urban floating population. This paper uses Arcgis to visualize the spatial distribution and main flow trajectories of inter-cities floating population, then uses regression equations to analyze the main factors driving population movement between cities. The results of this paper indicate that the urban-to-urban floating population tends to flow to developed regions and metropolises, during the process of which the proximity of destination is considered; gaps among regions in terms of economic development, employment opportunities, and high levels of education and medical facilities are the internal impetus to the flow of urban-to-urban floating population, while comprehensive consideration will be given to obstacles such as money costs and psychological pressure generated by space friction; at the same time, the existing urban-to-urban floating population will reduce the flow costs, and stimulate the flow of urban-to-urban floating population according to existing routes by reducing the cost of inflows, and providing living and employment information. According to the stage division of population flow in the developed countries, it is discovered that the population movement in China is still transforming from the stage where people move from small cities and towns to metropolises. At this time point, the government should encourage the flow of population to large cities according to the natural law of population movement, decentralize the functions of the central area through the development of sub-centers and satellite cities, and promote the development of urban suburbanization, which are in line with the natural logic of urban development.
中国城城流动人口的空间分布、流动规律及其形成机制
Spatial distribution of population migration in China in the 1990s'
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China is being at the stage of rapid urbanization. Based on the fifth census data, this paper analyzes the migration structure of China in different administrative and scale cities in the 1990s. The result shows that it is the prefecture cities that plays important role in the Chinese population migration in the 1990s, in which the big cities, especially the mega-cities, take a more significant position. It is also found that there are differences in the migration scale between county-level cities. The average migration scale of county-level city in East China is more than in West and Middle China. For the prefecture and above level cities is more important in the process of China′s urbanization at present and in the future, this article further examines the patial distribution pattern of inner-provincial and inter-provincial migration. It is showed that there are three ladder-like levels for prefecture cities in the spatial distribution pattern of inter-provincial migration: the first level includes the Zhujiang River Delta agglomeration, Changjiang River Delta city group, west bank cities, Beijing-Tianjin-Henan city agglomeration, the core cities of Liaodong Peninsula and a few of provincial capitals in middle-west area. The second level includes most of provincial capitals in middle-west area: Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration and other eastern cities which are close to Beijing-Tianjin-Henan area, Changjiang River and Zhujiang River. The third level includes other provincial cities of middle west area and other cities which are far away from the core cities of three metropolises in the eastern area. Besides, the circle structure is obvious in the southeast coastal area, while the peak structure is more evident in the mid-west area. With regard to the spatial distribution pattern of inner-provincial migration, it shows that there are great similarities among prefecture-level in population spatial distribution pattern. The first gathering cities are each provincial capital cities. The ESDA technology is used to study the spatial distribution features of migration in cities in China. The result shows strong concentration for spatial distribution. The Zhujiang River Delta agglomeration, Changjiang River Delta city group are the main gather cities in both of inner and inter provincial migration. Furthermore, the migration gathering city range in Zhujiang River Delta area is larger than the Changjiang River Delta. On the contrary, the cities with small migration scales are located in agricultural provinces such as Anhui, Henan, and Sichuan, etc.
20世纪末中国迁移人口空间分布格局: 基于城市的视角
Moving down the urban hierarchy: Turning point of China's internal migration caused by age structure and Hukou system
Beyond spatial segregation: Neo-migrants and their social networks in Chinese cities
中国城市“新移民”社会网络与空间分异
The impact of migrants' access to urban public services on their urban settlement intentions: A study from the perspective of different-sized cities
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[本文引用: 1]
In recent years, urbanization has been attached an increasing importance in China's overall development strategies. Migrants' settlement intention in cities has played an important role in affecting the urbanization trend in China. In such a context, both scholars and policy makers have increasingly attempted to understand the settlement intention of migrants in China. However, few studies so far have examined the role of migrants' access to urban public services in affecting their settlement intention from the perspective of different-sized cities. Based on the data from "the 2016 national dynamic monitoring survey of migrant population" in Shanghai Municipality and Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong provinces, this paper aims to address this issue. We utilize a composite index consisting of three dimensions to measure migrants' settlement intention, namely the long-term residence intention, the hukou transfer intention, and the urban housing purchase intention. We divide urban public services into two types, namely employment-related public services and social (non-employment) public services. The paper then explores the differences in the supply of the two types of urban public services and their impacts on migrants' urban settlement intention of different-sized cities. The results show that the bigger the size of a city is, the greater the likelihood that migrants get access to urban pubic services and the higher their level of urban settlement intention is. Migrants with easier access to the urban public services are more likely to settle down in cities. Through the ordered logistic regression model analysis, we also find that, after controlling for the effects of individual characteristics, family features, and migration characteristics, the two types of urban public services provided by cities for migrants have played a critical role in affecting migrants' urban settlement intention. However, the impacts of access to urban public services on migrants' urban settlement intention are different among different-sized cities. This is reflected in the following facts. First, migrants with easier access to unemployment insurance, medical insurance and housing security are more likely to settle down in cities, but this positive effect is limited to large cities. Second, in all size cities, migrants who are more likely to be covered by resident health records and receive more health education are more likely to settle down in cities. Finally, in small cities, only those covered by resident health records and receiving more health education have great effects on urban settlement intention.
基本公共服务对不同规模城市流动人口居留意愿的影响效应
Spatial variation of the determinants of China's urban floating population's settlement intention
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202002003
[本文引用: 1]
It is demonstrated that the determinants of China's urban floating population's settlement intention are different among geographic units, which seems to be ignored by previous researches. Based on the data from the 2015 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey (CMDS) and related statistics, this article uses the Semiparametric Geographically Weighted Regression (SGWR) model and k-means cluster method to examine the spatial variation of the factors influencing floating population's settlement intention in 282 prefecture- and provincial- level cites of China. Results provide the following conclusions. (1) The settlement intention of urban floating population is mainly influenced by the floating population characteristics instead of the destination characteristics. (2) Social and economic factors are closely related to the floating population's settlement intention. Meanwhile, the demographic, family and mobility factors exert a significant impact on such an intention. To be specific, there exists an inhibitory effect on floating population's settlement intention in factors such as income, marriage, and cross provincial mobility. However, housing expenditure, participation rate, number of children and other factors can effectively contribute to such intention. (3) Zonal spatial differentiation patterns of the influencing factors' coefficients are illustrated by the SGWR model, which can be further divided into four categories ("E-W", "N-S", "NE-SW" and "SE-NW"): The positive influences of ethnic and family factors are decreasing from the northern to southern regions, while the influence of employment ratio in the secondary industry is declining from the northwest to the southeast regions, and the impacts of factors such as the number of children and per capita GDP are diminishing from the northeast to the southwest regions. In eastern developed areas, the settlement intention of floating population with higher income is comparatively lower, while migrants with higher housing expenditure in southern China have a stronger intention to settle down. (4) Four influencing zones are detected by the k-means method: Floating population's settlement intention in North China, Central China and East China is significantly affected by multiple factors; In the northwest region and part of the southwest region, migrants' settlement intention is mainly influenced by demographic and social factors; The northeast region and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia's floating population's willingness to stay is mainly related to economic and family factors; Apart from housing expenditure, coefficients of other factors are relatively small in southern China and part of the central, eastern and southwestern regions. Additionally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the service and management of the floating population in China.
中国城市流动人口居留意愿影响因素的空间分异特征
A literature review of recent progress on western urban housing behavior: Implications for China's housing studies
西方城市居住行为研究进展及其对中国的启示
The spatial patterns of housing conditions of the floating population in China based on the sixth census data
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[本文引用: 1]
China's rapid urbanization and economic development have given rise to the fast growth of the floating population, and housing is a key issue in the process of their integration into the destination cities. This paper intends to explore this topic by analyzing the spatial patterns of housing conditions of the floating population. Based on the sixth census data, the paper selects six indicators to measure housing conditions of the floating population: the home-ownership rate, the rental-housing rate, the floor area index, the housing facilities index (constructed by summing up the situation of five variables: availability of running water, washroom, bathroom, kitchen, and the type of fuel), the index of privacy (constructed by summing up the situation of two variables: the function of the dwelling and the number of the dwelling's floors), and the housing consumption index. It uses the methods of Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster to examine the spatial distribution and agglomeration patterns of the floating population's housing conditions. The results of the calculation show that compared with urban permanent residents, members of the floating population are much more likely to live in rental homes;their housing conditions are generally worse;and their rental expenses are higher. The spatial variation of the homeownership rate, the rental-housing rate, and the housing facilities index is mainly manifested as north-south differences;the floor area index, and the index of privacy show marked difference between eastern and western China. The low-value centers of the housing consumption index are located in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Hubei and Anhui provinces, while the high-value centers are located in Beijing. Furthermore the results of Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis demonstrate that there is a significant positive spatial correlation in the indicators of the floating population's housing conditions on a national scale, and identify the phenomenon of their spatial clustering and the centers of such spatial clustering. The analysis of Hierarchical Clustering identifies the housing conditions of the floating population into four distinctive groups, and suggests that the housing conditions of the floating population in the inner and east parts of China are better than those in the outer and west parts, and such a spatial variation extends from the north to the south. Finally, on the basis of the above findings, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for improving the housing conditions of the floating population.
基于六普数据的中国流动人口住房状况的空间格局
Housing career disparities in urban China: A comparison between skilled migrants and locals in Nanjing
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Living conditions of the floating population in urban China
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Housing source of migrants and its associated factors
制度要素与流动人口的住房保障
Migrant household homeownership outcomes in large Chinese cities: The sustained impact of Hukou
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The determinants of housing inequality in urban household: Hukou, endowment or urban characteristic? Based on generalized ordered model and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition
城市家庭住房不平等:户籍、禀赋还是城市特征? 基于广义有序模型与Oaxaca-Blinder分解
Housing tenure choices of rural migrants in urban destinations: A case study of Jiangsu province, China
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Rural migrants' homeownership in Chinese urban destinations: Do institutional arrangements still matter after Hukou reform?
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The housing pattern selection and impact mechanism of the new generation of migrant workers
新生代农民工住房模式选择及影响机制
The acute effect of local homicides on children's cognitive performance
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Spatial foundations of inequality: A conceptual model and empirical overview
Why does birthplace matter so much?
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Does Hukou still matter? The household registration system and its impact on social stratification and mobility in China
户口还起作用吗: 户籍制度与社会分层和流动
Research on the assimilation of the floating population in China
中国流动人口的社会融入研究
Housing migrants in Chinese cities: Current status and policy design
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Home in the big city: Does place of origin affect homeownership among the post-80s generation in Shanghai
The economics of immigration
Why does birthplace matter so much?
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Urban residential order and spatial segregation from the perspective of spatial capital difference: A comparative study based on two types of communities
空间资本差异视角下的城市居住秩序和空间区隔: 基于两类社区的比较研究
The characteristics and determinants of the floating population's housing investment in the places of origin: Evidence from a survey in Fujian province
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[本文引用: 1]
China’s floating population is the biggest mobile population in the world. Most of its members are not able to settle down and be fully integrated into the destination cities, need to circulate between the places of origin and destination, and adopt multi-locational livelihood strategies. The bi-local or even multi-local housing arrangement is an important part of the floating population’s multi-locational livelihood strategies, and a growing body of literature has been devoted to understanding their housing conditions and their determinants in the destination cities in such a context. Nevertheless, within this growing body of literature, far less attention has been given to understanding the housing investment and its determinants of the floating population in the places of origin. Using data from a survey of the floating population in Fujian Province in 2015, this article intends to fill this gap by examining two forms of the floating population’s housing investment in their places of origin, namely village home renovation and housing purchase. The article estimates two binary logistic regression models to examine the underlying factors affecting the decision and location selection of the floating population’s housing investment in their places of origin, and the main conclusions are as follows: 1) Housing investment in the places of origin is quite common among members of the floating population, with village home renovation being more widespread than housing purchase as the form of housing investment. 2) The floating population’s housing investment at their places of origin has been significantly affected by the periods of the investment and the life course of the investors, resulting from the interaction among China's macroeconomic situation, relevant government policies, and life events of individual members of the floating population. 3) Life courses of individual members of the floating population, their multi-locational livelihoods strategies, and community characteristics of their places of origin jointly determine both the decision and location selection of the floating population’s housing investment in their places of origin. The individual life course is the direct force determining floating population’s housing investment in their places of origin, and the community environment in the places of origin is the external driving force for such investment. The average annual amount of remittances and the times of returning home of the floating population play important and positive roles in promoting the housing investment of floating population in the places of origin, but the familization of the floating population’s migration and participation in the transfer of land use rights have a negative effect on the floating population’s housing investment in their places of origin.
流动人口流出地住房投资特征及影响因素: 基于福建省的调查
The American Occupational Structure
The American occupational structure
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Migration destinations in the urban hierarchy in China: Evidence from Jiangsu
Relative deprivation and internal migration in the United States: A comparison of black and white men
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Place stratification, mobility of talents, and attractive power of cities: A theoretical exploration of the relationship between geographical mobility and social mobility
地方分层、人才流动与城市人才吸引力: “地理流动与社会流动”理论探究之二
The effects of local factors on the housing purchase intention of floating population in cities
地方性因素对流动人口流入地购房意愿的影响
Migration up and down the urban hierarchy and across the life course
Spatial differentiation of housing price growth in China and its impact mechanism
中国城市住房价格增长的空间差异及其影响机制
Study on the influencing factors and the heterogeneity of floating population's housing rental and purchase choice
[D].
流动人口住房租购选择的影响因素及其异质性研究
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Farmland circulation, housing choice and peasant-workers' citizenization
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农地流转、住房选择与农民工市民化意愿
The flow direction selection of the new generation highly educated floating population and the influence mechanism of the selection
新生代高学历流动人口的流向选择及影响机制
Migration and the metropolis: An empirical and theoretical analysis of inter-regional migration to and from South East England
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Ambition, human capital acquisition and the metropolitan escalator
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The impact of urban development on the life satisfaction of young people
城市发展对青年生活满意度的影响
Spatial patterns of marriage matching and marriage migration among Chinese labour
中国劳动力婚姻匹配与婚姻迁移的空间模式研究
Housing outcomes of family migrants at the place of destination
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201704003
[本文引用: 2]
Nowadays family migration has become the main migration pattern of floating population in China, which may raise new requirements for residential independence, tenure and quality in the cities. For some researchers, the migrant households were generally considered as passive recipients of housing inequality, and the institutional barrier of Hukou were no doubt still the decisive factors for migrants' housing outcomes. However, other researchers start to challenge this perspective, and argue that migrants should be considered as enabling agents with coping strategies in the housing market since the influence of Hukou system in migrants' housing outcomes is declining. Under this context, this paper tries to explore the role of family strategy in family migrants' housing outcomes, and whether this conclusion differentiates among various households. Based on a questionnaire survey which covered 2394 migrants and their households in 12 cities of the Bohai Rim Region, the Yangtze River Delta Region, the Pearl River Delta Region, and the Chengdu-Chongqing Region, this paper uses logistic regression model to explore family migrants' urban housing outcome in terms of housing tenure and quality and the mechanism for this. The result shows, different household arrangements lead to diversification of housing outcome, which means that the ownership and housing quality differs significantly among sole migrants, couple migrants, two-generation migrants, and three-generation migrants. The three-generation migrant households, as expected, have the highest ownership percentage and residential quality among all types of migrant households, while the sole and couple migrants suffer from the poor residential conditions. This housing outcome should be explained by factors such as socio-economic characteristics, household arrangements, geographic environment, migrants' connection with the original hometown and adaptation to current destination. Especially, when considering the effect of migrants' sense of belonging, plan to settle down in the destination and connection with hometown, the effect of Hukou is weakened. Different household arrangements have different barriers and strategies, which leads to the divergence of housing outcomes. The implication from this research is that the governments should make gradient regulation policy for the diverse family migrants, and lead them to settle stably step by step.
家庭式迁移的流动人口住房状况
Housing property, residential location and migrants' assimilation in China
住房属性、居住区位与流动人口城市融入
Spatial pattern and influencing mechanism of interprovincial migration's Hukou transfer intention in China
DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.11.003
[本文引用: 1]
Based on data from migration dynamic micro survey 2016, this article first construct the network of interprovincial Hukou transfer intention in China. Then, with the use of some spatial analysis methods, including global Moran’s I coefficient and hot spot, we explore the spatial pattern of such network. Considering network autocorrelation in our data, Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Gravity Model (ESFGM) is applied for analyzing the driving factors. Main results reveal that: 1) The network shows a concentrating spatial pattern, and migrating flows with high ranks are mainly from the undeveloped areas to developed regions. That is to say, the willingness of transferring Hukou differs from regions to regions, showing heterogeneity. 2) Although there exists a random spatial pattern of Hukou attractiveness, such pattern of out-migration is concentrating. Furthermore, provinces in the west and northwest are the hot spot areas of Hukou emigration intention, while the cold spot areas are the mid-east regions in China. 3) From the macro perspective, population of destination shows a negative impact on Hukou transfer intention, while the size of population in an origin is not highly correlated; per capita GDP of both origin and destination, as well as export of foreign-invested firms, influence the intention positively and notably. But among all macro factors, the average wage of employees in urban areas leads to relatively higher impact. 4) From the micro perspective, generally speaking, migrants’ individual and family factors have strong ties with their Hukou transfer intention. A migrant, with higher education level, smaller age and larger scale of family in the destination, tends to transfer his (or her) Hukou to the immigration place. In the meantime, impacts of house condition and migration reason cannot be ignored: a migrant with lower intention of buying a local house or migrating for business, is likely to have a lower intention of transferring Hukou.
中国省际流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响机制分析
Housing for rural migrant workers: Consumption characteristics and supply policy
DOI:10.1080/08111140802301757 URL [本文引用: 1]
Determinants of changes in housing sources for migrant workers in urban China: An empirical study based on a twelve-city migrant survey
进城务工人员的住房变动及其影响因素: 基于十二城市问卷调查的实证分析
Social origins and educational attainment: A historical analysis based on 70 birth cohorts from CGSS datasets
社会出身与教育获得: 基于CGSS 70个年龄组数据的历史考察
On the laddering migration of China's floating population
对中国流动人口“梯次流动”的理论思考
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