The statistical definition of migration in China is attached with its unique household registration (hukou) system, the migrants so defined are also called the floating population. A new analytical paradigm is needed to deal with the complexity of sub-flows in the floating population. The paper classifies five types of the floating population in census context by referring the UN migration criteria, and constructs a new paradigm for analyzing the floating population in China. As a particular provincial-level region (hereafter province) is concerned, the inflow and outflow people belong to different hukou groups balanced by their own counter-flow, namely, inflow vs back-inflow (both have no hukou of the province), outflow vs back-outflow (both have hukou of the province). With the clue of inter-census migration cohort, a sub-flows model is constructed to identify the inter-provincial migration based on the retention rate. The annual retention rate of the inter-provincial migration cohort from 2010 to 2020 is 88.7%. Based on the provincial retention rates, an all-increment table of population change by province in China is made by modelling simulation. The paper surfaces new characteristics of population growth and inter-provincial migration: (1) Provincial population changes are divided into five types, among which the inflow-leading increase type is mainly found in municipalities and the eastern coastal areas, while the fertility-leading increase type and the fertility-overriding increase type are mainly in the western provinces and the agricultural provinces in the middle, and the outflow-overriding decrease type and the outflow-leading decrease type in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and the northeastern provinces. (2) The mechanical growth of population can be divided into four types: rapid increase, equilibrium, outflow-overriding decrease and dual decrease (both hukou and non-hukou migration are negative). A "W"-shaped mechanical growth rate profile from northwest to southeast is found with the equilibrium belt standing in its middle. (3) Population floating is divided into three types. The counter-flows are highly-correlated: inflow rate and outflow rate are negatively correlated while the inflow-back-inflow and outflow-back-outflow are significant positively correlated. The analytical paradigm and model of floating population in China can be further extended to the study of "citizenship seeking migration" including international migration, and even further to identity migration including migrations with status changing such as enrollment, employment and marriage.
Understanding the spatial segregation and social integration of immigrants and local residents is highly significant in summarizing the historical experience of Chinese modernization. Additionally, it serves as a crucial foundation for promoting a people-centered new urbanization, fostering spatial fairness and justice, and achieving common prosperity. However, current research on residential spatial differentiation primarily focuses on analyzing the spatial distribution characteristics, differentiation patterns, and indicator calculations of various groups, and has limited investigation into social integration issues. This paper explores this social and spatial differentiation phenomenon in Hangzhou, usingthe initial residence registration information and mobile phone signalling data to analyze the characteristics and mechanisms of living space differentiation. Additionally, this article combines a small sample of questionnaires with a bottom-up exploration of social integration under spatial differentiation. From the research, four key findings emerge: (1) The majority of residents in the city are migrants. There is a clear difference in the distribution of living spaces between immigrants and local residents, with local residents mainly concentrated in the old city area, while the distribution of immigrants is more scattered. Compared to the typical "immigrant city" in the United States, Hangzhou has less spatial differentiation between immigrants and local residents. (2) The residential space differentiation between immigrants and local residents in the city presents a combination pattern of " multi-nuclei, sectoral, concentric zone". However, unlike the centrifugal diffusion trend of the local people in the United States, the local residents in Hangzhou tends to gather towards the center, while immigrants choose centrifugal diffusion and peripheral aggregation. (3) The spatial differentiation of living spaces is mainly caused by the competition for spatial resources between immigrants and local residents under urban expansion. However, behind the phenomenon of "local residents live in the old city", immigrants are no longer a disadvantaged group. Some intelligent new immigrants actively choose to live in high-quality peripheral areas. (4) The integration between immigrants and local residents is satisfactory, but it is more cautious about the issue of intermarriage. Additionally, residential spatial segregation has not had a negative impact on social integration. There are four main reasons for this. To begin with, the majority of the population consists of immigrants, and urban residents no longer pay attention to identity labels in their daily interactions. Besides, there is relatively little cultural difference within ethnic groups, and the assimilation between immigrants and local residents is increasing. And then, interactions between individuals in workplace and third place can alleviate the negative impacts caused by residential spatial segregation. Finally, China's coordinated development and people-oriented social system can also create favorable conditions for social integration.
In the wake of unprecedented global urbanization, an alarming trend of shrinking cities has emerged worldwide, presenting a profound challenge to conventional urban-regional planning approaches, primarily centered on growth scenarios. This trend has also bestowed upon Chinese geographers and urban and rural planning practitioners a new mandate in this evolving era. One region that exemplifies this predicament is Northeast China, experiencing the most severe population decline and the highest concentration of shrinking cities in the country. How to rationally recognize and properly deal with this phenomenon (or problem) of regional urban shrinkage has become the core scientific issue to be focused on in the comprehensive implementation of regional coordinated high-quality development, Chinese-style modernization of common prosperity for all and all-round revitalization of Northeast China in the new era. This paper delves into a logical speculation and practical discussion to understand the underlying causes and implications of regional urban shrinkage in Northeast China: Initially, it examines the original concept of regional shrinking cities within the context of urbanization, critically evaluating the rationality of such shrinkage in light of the broader national strategic objectives. Subsequently, the generation logic of regional urban shrinkage in Northeast China is explored through three key factors: the "pull" effect of regional spatial correlation, the "extrusion" effect of urban shrinkage at a regional level, and the "catalyst" effect of transportation and communication technology development in reducing the cost of factor flow. Moreover, this study draws on the market-led shrewd contraction theory and the government-led vitality regeneration governance logic. It takes into account the governance objectives of achieving "regional coordinated high-quality development, people-oriented new urbanization, efficiency and fairness, and comprehensive security concept". With a systematic perspective that considers scale heterogeneity, development context relevance, factor differentiation, and multidisciplinary integration, the paper outlines a governance model and strategy for addressing regional urban shrinkage in Northeast China. By emphasizing the alignment of governance approaches with national development goals, this research underscores that regional urban shrinkage goes beyond a mere outcome of market-driven population migration. The presence of underlying "market failures" severely impacts the vision of the five major securities (national defense, food, ecology, energy, industry) advocated by Chinese President Xi Jinping for the Northeast China region. The findings of this study offer valuable insights to guide Northeast China's pursuit of high-quality development and contribute to the region's revitalization efforts.
Fostering coordination among the economy, society, resources and environment is a crucial requirement for high-quality urbanization. This work developed an indicator system for the degree of coordination involving urbanization-economy, urbanization-society, urbanization-resources and urbanization-environment based on the dynamic evolution of urbanization and time series analysis. Using counties as the statistical unit, the study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution process and impact mechanism of the multidimensional coordinated urbanization from 2000 to 2020 on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Urbanization-resource coordination was found to be the highest overall. The levels of coordination between urbanization-economy and urbanization-society were relatively low, whereas the coordination degree for urbanization-environment was moderate and essentially consistent. The measurements described above showed a convergent tendency between 2000 and 2020. The levels of coordination between Qinghai and southern Gansu generally decreased, and the rate of urbanization outpaced that of economic growth, placing significant strain on the environment and resources. The overall degree of coordination improved in Xizang, western Sichuan, and Yunnan, despite the fact that their individual coordination levels were on the decline. The regression findings showed that the industrial development, which is primarily influenced by the industrial structure, is a crucial element in enhancing the degree of urbanization-economy coordination. The financial capacity of the government has a significant impact on the degree to which urbanization and society are coordinated. As the scale of fiscal spending expands, it correspondingly rises the degree of coordination. Furthermore, economic development and government fiscal spending have a negative effect on the coordination degree of urbanization-resources and urbanization-environment. When industrial proportion and government fiscal spending capacity increase, the coordination degree of urbanization-resources and urbanization-environment declines, indicating the plateau's dilemma between economic development and environmental protection. However, if the industrial enterprises are primarily larger than the designated size and the scale of the center town agglomeration is enormous, it is conducive to strengthen the coordination degree of urbanization-resources and urbanization-environment.
Urban housing prices are influenced by various factors, encompassing macroeconomic conditions, urban planning strategies, and the specific characteristics of housing. These elements play a crucial role in shaping urban planning and development. Nonetheless, the regression analysis depicting the interplay between urban housing prices and their influencing factors reveals significant spatial non-stationarity and intricate nonlinear characteristics. Addressing the limitations of Euclidean distance in delineating spatial proximity for housing price modeling and the challenges encountered by the geographically weighted regression model (GWR) in capturing complex nonlinear features, this study introduces travel duration (TD) as a spatial distance metric and integrates it with a spatially weighted neural network to establish a geographically neural network weighted regression model with travel duration (TD-GNNWR) to estimate housing prices. In an empirical experiment using 2019 second-hand house data in Wuhan, the TD-GNNWR model demonstrates a 16% enhancement in fitting accuracy compared to the GWR model. The TD-GNNWR model notably enhances accuracy within sparsely sampled regions and better mimics their spatial distribution. Moreover, it adeptly captures spatial non-stationarity, offering a more precise elucidation of factors influencing housing prices in Wuhan and the resultant spatial discrepancies stemming from urban zoning. Our findings underscore the comprehensive impact of various factors on housing prices in Wuhan, such as building characteristics, neighborhood attributes, and transportation accessibility. Factors like greening rates, property fees, proximity to primary schools, universities, and public transportation exert substantial influence on housing prices in Wuhan, with varying directions and strengths across different areas, signifying clear spatial differentiation. The TD-GNNWR model clearly elucidates the mechanisms underlying housing price determinants while illustrating the inherent spatial non-stationarity, which is beneficial for urban planning departments and real estate managers in policy formulation, macro-control, urban planning, and investment decision-making. This work can also serve as a valuable reference for tackling challenges in urban analysis and modeling, thereby enriching methodologies within real estate research.
With the acceleration of urbanization, traditional large-scale remote sensing image and economic statistical methods cannot accurately depict the dynamics of urban economic development from a fine scale. Streetscape images can reflect the material spatial features of the urban built environment. And based on this, economic development indicator (EDI) can be predicted at a finer scale. The study proposes an improved Deeplabv3_MEP semantic segmentation model for streetscape images to extract the percentage of streetscape elements. Then, graph neural network (GCN) and convolutional neural network (CNN) are used separately with streetscape factor index and streetscape images as inputs to predict EDI. And the XGBoost model is used to analyze the driving factors of EDI. The carbon sinks are calculated and a Lasso regression model is constructed to evaluate the effectiveness of green economic development in administrative regions. The results show that: (1) At the city-level division scale, the economic indicator of Jinan city shows a trend of high concentration towards the city center and a gradual decrease towards the outskirts. (2) At the district-level division scale, Lixia district has the highest level of economic development. And the development level in sporadic areas in the east is very high, while that in other areas is lower. (3) At the street-level division scale, the closer the street is to the district or county center, the higher the average income level of residents, and the closer the street is to the city center, the higher the average income level of residents. (4) Driving factors such as wall, sky, road, and car, contribute more to EDI, while factors such as pole and motorcycle contribute less, with bus being the lowest. (5) There is a phenomenon of mismatch between the green economic development index and the level of economic development.
Evolutionary economic geography has proposed the principle of relatedness. According to the degree of relatedness, the regional industrial development paths can be divided into related diversification and unrelated diversification. However, the current studies neglect the symmetrical nature of relatedness. According to the degree of symmetry between two related industries, related diversification can be divided into symmetrically related diversification and asymmetrically related diversification. Using Chinese industrial enterprises database from 1998 to 2012, this paper investigates symmetrically related diversification and asymmetrically related diversification's relationship with regional economic complexity. The result shows that: (1) The regional industrial development paths are dominated by related diversification rather than unrelated diversification. The number of related new industries in China accounted for about 60%-70% of the total number of new industries from 1998 to 2012. In terms of related diversification, positively asymmetrically related diversification takes the largest part, while symmetrically related diversification takes the second largest part. The number of positively asymmetrically related new industries accounts for about 60% of the total number of related new industries, and the number of symmetrically related new industries accounts for about 35% of the total number of related new industries over the time period from 1998 to 2012. (2) Industries with higher technological complexity show stronger symmetry in their related diversification, while industries with lower technological complexity show stronger positive asymmetry in their related diversification. (3) Regions with higher economic complexity usually have more unrelated diversification and its related diversification shows stronger symmetry. Regions with lower economic complexity usually have more related diversification and this related diversification shows stronger positive asymmetry. This study can contribute to the development of the principle of relatedness in evolutionary economic geography and provide suggestions for policymakers in terms of the industrial upgrading of regions.
The driving force behind coordination is that the regional coordination policies can benefit the weak. Since the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy, its actual effect has been questioned. Some negative views suggest that this policy has only benefited Beijing and Tianjin, but has not promoted the development of Hebei. In response to this question, this paper takes the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy in 2015 as a natural experiment, using synthetic control method and panel data from 2010 to 2020, empirically evaluates the policy effect and spatial heterogeneity of this policy on economic growth, industrial structure optimization and air quality improvement of Hebei. Results indicate that: (1) The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy did not significantly drive the economic growth of Hebei, but promoted the optimization of industrial structure and the improvement of air quality, showing a trend of high-quality coordinated development. (2) The policy effect on prefecture-level cities of Hebei is different due to their distance from Beijing and Tianjin, showing a "center-periphery" diffusion pattern with Beijing and Tianjin as the core. (3) The cities close to Beijing have obtained obvious effect of industrial structure optimization, and the cities close to Tianjin have obtained obvious effect of economic growth. Cities around Beijing and Tianjin are significantly better than cities in southern Hebei in terms of air quality improvement. In the future, we need to view this policy with a new concept of high-quality development, scientifically promote the industrial transfer and undertaking within the urban agglomeration, and continuously consolidate the basic conditions for economic development of Hebei. It is also necessary to achieve spatial equity and adapt to local conditions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordination.
Development zone (area) is a growth pole of economic development and a platform for institutional innovation, and its transformation and development play an important role in developing China's high-quality economy and building an innovative country. This paper takes Tianjin Economic-Technological Development Area (TEDA) as the research object, uses the comprehensive evaluation model to measure its transformation level, and the obstacle degree model to explore and analyze the obstacle factors that may affect TEDA's transformation. The results are as follows: (1) TEDA's transformation and development breaks through the limited life cycle of export processing zone (EPZ), and prolongs the life cycle with new forms and modes by transforming and upgrading the course from EPZ to comprehensive development zone, industrial new city and comprehensive new city; (2) Analysis of the overall developmental course suggests that the comprehensive transformation level of TEDA was low from 2005 to 2019, the level was on the rise from 2005 to 2013, but remained stagnant from 2014 to 2019. (3) Developmental stages are characterized by variance of development and their main obstacles. Specifically, during the period of 2005-2013, the factor-, benefit-, environment- and industry-driving forces remain relatively low, which is mainly caused by weak utilization of domestic capital, low per capita GDP, poor environmental quality, and insufficient high-tech enterprises. In contrast, during the period from 2014 to 2019, the factor-, environment- and innovation-driving forces for transformation and development are insufficient. The main obstacle factors include a decline in quality of foreign capital utilization, insufficient investment in infrastructure, scientific and technological development. Accordingly, this article raised the proposals of actively attracting foreign capital, playing the leading role of domestic capital, improving infrastructure construction to strengthen the joint protection and governance of ecological environment, increasing investment of independent innovation to promote the transformation of the development zone. The research conclusions have theoretical and reference value for the transformation development and relevant research of TEDA and other development zones.
Utilizing location data from USPTO patents spanning 1790 to 2022, this study incorporates theories from complexity science, lifecycle analysis, and geographical nature. It employs methods including urban scaling laws, scale-adjusted metropolitan indicators, and geographic detectors to construct a performance index for United States science and technology innovation (STI) centers, and analyze their spatiotemporal pattern evolution and driving mechanisms. The results reveal that: (1) Innovation scaling laws across cities have evolved into significant super-linear relationships, indicating that larger cities have higher per capita innovation outputs, thus demonstrating a pronounced scale-increasing effect of STI. (2) The performance index facilitates cross-scale comparisons of urban STI capabilities, illustrating the complete lifecycle of STI centers from incubation, expansion, decline, to revival. Throughout the study period, San Francisco CSA progressively surpassed New York CSA, Boston CSA, and Chicago CSA, becoming a leading STI center in the United States. (3) The spatial distribution of the performance index for US STI centers reveals a "north-superior, south-inferior" pattern. Factors of second nature, such as urbanization, internationalization, and socio-economic development, along with urban polycentricity, positively influence the performance index. In contrast, population density and first nature factors like climate and topography negatively correlate with the performance index. Under the influence of path dependence and cumulative causation, the performance of US STI centers exhibits a "Matthew effect", exacerbating the north-south divide.
With the continuous development and application of information technology, online shopping has emerged as a significant force, bringing immense economic potential. The convenience offered by online shopping, such as the ability to shop anytime, anywhere, and access to a vast array of products, is reshaping consumer habits and expectations. Despite the continued growth of online shopping, the role of physical stores remains significant. Physical stores offer tangible benefits that online shopping often struggle to replicate. These include the ability to see, touch, and try products before purchasing, as well as the immediacy of taking items home without having to wait for shipping. The relationship between online shopping and physical shopping remains a hot topic in academia. Although there have been relevant studies in China, most of them are based on the survey data from individual communities or cities, lacking large-scale and long-term systematic research from a national perspective. Furthermore, there is a lack of heterogeneous comparisons between different regions. Drawing on large-scale time utilization survey data of 29 provincial-level regions in 2017 and 2021, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of online shopping behavior and physical shopping behavior of China's residents, and examines the influence of online shopping on residents' physical shopping behavior. The results show that: (1) There are significant spatial differences in the characteristics of residents' online and physical shopping behaviors. The standard deviation ellipse of online shopping and physical shopping behavior shows an obvious "northeast-southwest" distribution pattern, with the gravity center gradually shifting northward during the study period. (2) In 2017, online shopping had a significant complementary effect on physical shopping. But in 2021, both complementary and neutral effects coexisted. (3) There are significant differences in the impact of online shopping on physical shopping between urban and rural residents, and residents among different regions. There is also a coexistence of complementary effects and neutral effects. This paper clarifies the relationship between online shopping and physical shopping in China, provides an in-depth understanding of the changes of urban space in the internet era, and helps promote the spatial transformation of physical commerce.
In the post-Cold War era, the global landscape has evolved towards multipolarity, and the geostrategic behavior of states has gradually shifted away from the traditional binary model of "balancing-bandwagoning" to a more flexible and diverse one called hedging strategy, and it is the current strategy that the countries surrounding the South China Sea have adopted in response to China's actions. By introducing the hedging theory of international relations, we seek to understand, from a geopolitical perspective, how these geopolitical entities employ hedging strategies. First, an analytical framework is constructed to theorize hedging strategy, consisting of driving factors, mediating factors, and strategic choices. Second, the hedging intensity is assessed quantitatively via the geopolitical risk and the relative power index of the countries surrounding the South China Sea. The evolution of it is presented through a bivariate visualization method, and the various hedging patterns are classified by utilizing the quadrant diagram. Finally, both the theoretical framework and quantitative outcomes are validated by analyzing the strategic practices of the study region. We conclude that: (1) the geopolitical risks of the countries surrounding the South China Sea have been "tending to be stable but difficult to achieve" since the beginning of the 21st century, with significant heterogeneity among these countries. The evolution of state relative power exhibits a fluctuating trend, closely linked to U.S. intervention. (2) The hedging intensity of the countries surrounding the South China Sea results from the interaction between geopolitical risk and state relative power, leading to three distinct forms, represented by Vietnam and the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia and Brunei, respectively. (3) The intrinsic logic of the hedging strategies of these countries can be seen as a strategic cognition shaped by their threat awareness and national strategic orientation. This cognition then orientates diverse hedging approaches that guide these countries in applying either cooperative or competitive tools. By understanding the intensity and nature of the strategic hedging by the countries surrounding the South China Sea, we aim to provide a unique vantage point for China's regional governance in the South China Sea.
Human settlements geography leverages the comprehensive strengths of geography that are recognized both in China and internationally. Therefore, human settlements geography represents the mature evolution of the discipline of geography through interdisciplinary integration. Human settlements geography directly responds to the public's aspirations for superior human settlements and fulfills critical national priorities. Compared to urban, economic, and behavioral geography, human settlements geography's theoretical frameworks, practical applications, and integrative development remain under-explored. To advance this field, delineating its theoretical underpinnings across the following five key dimensions is essential: foundational theories, theoretical frameworks, geographical scales, research paradigms, and thematic narratives. Central to the discipline is the exploration of human-settlements relationships, which are approached through both "three dimensions" and "three elements" perspectives. By capitalizing on the unique interplay of "three states", the discipline advocates for an open integration model, proposing a novel pathway for human settlements geography, which is poised to navigate three pivotal avenues: engaging with new scientific inquiries, adopting innovative data and methodologies, and embracing progressive development concepts. This strategy aims to transition human settlements geography from a specialized intersection of interdisciplinary study to a more encompassing and influential field, marking its significance as a major branch of geography and a substantial discipline. The synthesis of theoretical depth, practical relevance, collaborative integration, and strategic development in human settlements geography seeks to catalyze cross-disciplinary synergy and paradigmatic shifts. It aims to meet residents' diverse needs, support evidence-based national development policies, and enhance China's role and authority in shaping global human settlement policies, highlighting the country's dedication to fostering sustainable and habitable human settlements.
The nonlinear relationship and spatially heterogeneous relationship between environmental factors and criminal activities are the main reasons for both the theoretical and empirical divergence, but the relevant analysis remains fragmented and faces limitations such as linear relationship hypothesis, collinearity problems and omitted variable bias. This study uses Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) algorithm and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) interpreter in machine learning to systematically reveal the nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous relationships between 48 built and social environmental factors on violent crime in Beijing. Our research has revealed the existence of seven distinct types of nonlinear relationships between environmental factors and violent crime, each exhibiting unique trends in the direction of influence and marginal effects. Furthermore, we have found that the association between environmental factors and violent crime exhibits varying degrees of spatial heterogeneity. By utilizing K-means clustering analysis, the entire area can be segmented into six distinct regions, each characterized by different critical criminogenic factors. These findings suggest that the applicability of crime geography theories, such as the classification of crime generators, attractors, and inhibitors based on crime pattern theory, the validity of street eye theory and defensible space theory, and the impact of social attributes as proposed by social disorganization theory, may depend on the value range of environmental factors and differ across locations. In light of these findings, it is recommended that crime prevention strategies shift from universal to targeted approaches, wherein public resources are allocated to specific value ranges of environmental variables and prioritized regions.