金融供给对中国乡村高质量发展的影响
The impact of regional financial supply on high-quality rural development
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收稿日期: 2022-10-31 修回日期: 2023-08-4
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Received: 2022-10-31 Revised: 2023-08-4
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作者简介 About authors
王毅(1989-), 男, 湖北宜昌人, 副教授, 硕士生导师, 主要从事人居环境与区域发展研究。E-mail:
让金融活水“滴灌”乡村发展沃土是新时代赋予金融的使命与任务。本文全面探讨了金融供给驱动乡村高质量发展的效应及其背后的传导机制。理论上,金融可通过其功能发挥所释放的产业带动、环境美化、社会规范和民生改善等多重效应而赋能乡村高质量发展。实证上,本文测度了2005—2020年中国31个省域单元的金融供给和乡村高质量发展的综合水平,并运用面板固定效应模型和中介效应模型等方法检验了金融对乡村高质量发展的驱动效应、作用机制及其时空异质性特征。结果表明:金融供给对乡村高质量发展具有显著的正向驱动作用,这一结论在重新测算被解释变量以及借助工具变量开展稳健性检验后依旧成立。但对于东部地区以及2014年以后的时段,金融对乡村高质量的影响更为强劲,这也得到了费舍尔组合检验的证实。作用机制的分析显示,对于全部省域总样本及5类子样本,促进乡村消费升级、释放民生改善效应是金融驱动乡村高质量发展的共同渠道,而金融发展带来的产业带动效应、环境美化效应和社会规范效应只存在于部分子样本,各渠道的适用性存在差异。总体而言,本文推动了对乡村高质量发展动因以及金融赋能乡村振兴的效应、机制和时空差异的理解,丰富了金融地理学和乡村地理学的研究视角。
关键词:
It is the mission and task entrusted to finance in the new era to "drip irrigate" the fertile land for rural development. In view of this, this paper presents an initial attempt to investigate whether and how regional financial supply promotes high-quality rural development in China. We first explain the influence mechanism of financial supply on high-quality rural development at the theoretical level, and hold that finance can contribute to the high-quality development of rural areas through its multiple effects released by its functional exertion, such as industrial promotion, environmental improvement, social norms and improvement of people's livelihood. Based on this theoretical analysis, we combine panel data from 31 provincial-level regions in China during the period 2005-2020 to construct an evaluation index system of finance and the high-quality rural development. Then the driving effect, mechanism and heterogeneity of finance on high-quality rural development were tested and revealed by using panel fixed effect model and mediation effect model. The results indicate that the improvement of the regional financial supply is conducive to the high-quality rural development, and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests conducted. However, this positive effect shows obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. For the eastern region and the period after 2014, the positive impacts of finance on the high-quality rural development are stronger. This finding was also confirmed by the Fisher Permutation Test. In addition, the analysis of action mechanism shows that for the total sample of all provinces and the five sub-samples, "promoting rural consumption upgrading and releasing the effect of improving people's livelihood" is the common channel of finance driving high-quality rural development. However, the industrial driving effect, environmental improvement effect and human capital effect brought by financial development only exist in some molecular samples. In general, this paper advances the understanding of the drivers of high-quality rural development and the effects, mechanisms and regional differences of financial empowerment for rural revitalization, and enriches the research perspectives of financial geography and rural geography.
Keywords:
本文引用格式
王毅, 苗转莹, 陆玉麒, 朱英明.
WANG Yi, MIAO Zhuanying, LU Yuqi, ZHU Yingming.
1 引言
在此背景下,很多学者从土地综合整治[6]、乡村旅游发展[7]、农村宽带普及[8]、数字经济驱动[9]、人居环境优化[10]等多个视角探析了它们对乡村发展的影响程度与作用机理,由此衍生的对策建议也为乡村高质量发展提供了有效的科学支撑。然则,上述多元化的驱动路径均需要同一个要素来支撑,即金融资本。作为现代化经济体系的核心要素,金融具备资本融通、资源配置和风险管理等多重功能,可为乡村振兴解决“钱从哪里来”的问题[11],被认为是推动乡村高质量发展不可或缺的关键变量[12-13]。随着乡村振兴上升为国家战略,金融服务对乡村发展的催化剂作用愈发受到重视。自2018年起,乡村振兴连续5年成为中央一号文件的主题,而“金融”则是被历年文件频频提及的关键词,国务院还专门制定了《关于金融服务乡村振兴的指导意见》。得益于系列宏观政策的发力,中国金融支农、促农力度不断加大,农村资金短缺问题得到持续改善[14]。
金融供给是否促进了中国乡村高质量发展?如果该效应得到证实,其背后的作用机制是什么呢?这种驱动效应在不同地区又有何差异?对以上问题的探究,既有助于深刻认知金融发展的战略作用,又能丰富乡村高质量发展的理论研究和实践探索。从现有研究来看,围绕金融支撑乡村发展这一主题成果已逐渐丰富,但结论存在差异。一些学者从金融功能理论的角度出发,认为金融功能的发挥可以增加现代化、智能化的农业机械使用率,促进农业产业内部升级,提高乡村产业发展绩效[13,15 -16]。也有学者基于小额信贷理论和普惠金融理论,以印度、尼日利亚等国为例,证实金融发展能降低农村融资成本,提高农村居民收入,显著改善贫困问题[17⇓-19]。还有学者从本源与使命出发,梳理了乡村治理中的金融逻辑,指出金融是服务乡村治理的一种新路径[20]。一些研究还发现区域金融供给水平的提升能显著推动农业科技进步,缩小城乡收入差距,推动城乡高质量融合发展[21-22]。然而,也有学者对上述观点持反对意见。他们认为金融发展会使城乡收入差距进一步扩大[23],并让很多贫困人群落入更难脱贫的“贫困陷阱”[24],因此不宜高估金融要素对农村发展的贡献[25]。此外,金融对乡村发展的非线性影响也逐渐引起学者的关注,其非线性特征通常表现为规模上的边际效应递减或“U”型趋势[21],以及时间上的累积效应[26]。
综上可知,金融供给对乡村发展产生何种影响,尚未达成共识,但总体而言,持肯定态度者居多,这对探寻乡村高质量发展的金融路径具有重要指导意义。然则,在高质量发展背景下,准确评估金融供给对乡村发展影响的实证研究仍极为缺乏,且存在一些局限。① 乡村高质量发展是一个多元化、综合性的概念,但仅有的相关研究来自于金融如何影响减贫[27]、农村消费[28]、农业升级[29]、缩小城乡收入差距[30]等单一乡村高质量发展子论题。尽管可以一定程度反映出金融对乡村的内在作用规律,但可能难以把握全貌而得出有偏结论。因此,在探究其具体作用效应之前,准确界定乡村高质量发展的内涵并进行科学度量尤为必要。然而纵观已有文献,相关研究主要侧重于城市、城市群或经济带高质量发展的测度与评估[3,31⇓ -33]。② 在研究内容和视角上,围绕高质量发展这一主题,学者们倾向于实践路径探索[34-35]或者开展“指标—评价”范式的研究[1,36 -37],理论机制方面的探究比较缺乏[38-39]。具体到本文的论题,对于金融供给主要通过何种路径促进乡村高质量发展,已有研究并没有提供一个统一的框架来回答该问题。③ 从宏观层面考察金融发展的效应时,已有研究侧重于金融规模分析或突出金融的产业带动功能[26],对金融的其他维度和功效关注较少,这将很难满足新时代乡村高质量发展的金融需求。
鉴于此,本文将从以下几方面进行拓展:① 在科学内涵层面,基于乡村多功能理论并结合已有研究及相关标准,界定乡村高质量发展的科学内涵,将乡村高质量发展纳入高质量发展的视域内,以期丰富中国高质量发展的理论研究;② 在理论框架层面,基于金融功能理论尝试构建一个完整的框架,系统阐释金融供给驱动乡村高质量发展的效应及其背后的传导机制,从而为理解乡村高质量发展的重要驱动因素提供新视角;③ 在实证分析层面,从省域尺度对金融供给和乡村高质量发展进行较为全面的测度和时序演进特征分析。在此基础上,本文构建面板固定效应模型和中介效应模型,并充分考虑时空两个维度的异质性,以全面、系统地揭示金融供给促进乡村高质量发展的内在逻辑,从而为更好地从金融视角寻求乡村高质量发展的有效路径提供理论与实践支撑。
2 理论框架
2.1 乡村高质量发展的内涵与外延
广义的高质量发展是体现新发展理念的发展,是能够很好地满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要的发展[1]。这一界定提纲挈领地抓住了高质量发展的本质核心,但在研究具体区域问题时,还需对高质量发展的内涵做更具象的阐述。乡村是人类活动空间的重要组成部分[4],乡村高质量发展是中国当前及今后相当长的一段时间内根治水土环境污损化、乡村聚落空废化和区域贫困化等一系列“乡村病”的必由之路。中国以往的支农策略与路径成功地解决了农民生产积极性不高、城乡要素流动不畅等问题[40],但新时代的乡村建设更加强调高质量发展,根本在于解决乡村发展不充分以及乡村居民“满不满意”等关键问题[41-42]。由此,本文认为乡村高质量发展的科学内涵可概括为:以乡村振兴战略为引领,基于乡村独特的生产、生活、生态空间基底,通过维系乡村自然环境承载力、增强乡村经济发展内生力、扩大乡村文化影响力、强化乡村社会凝聚力、提升优质成果供给力,以全面实现农业强、农村美、农民富,满足乡村居民日益增长的美好生活需要的永续发展模式和发展状态。
乡村作为一个空间地域系统,其功能已从农业生产功能主导向生态服务、文化传承、社会稳定等综合空间演绎[43]。乡村高质量发展目标的实现离不开乡村功能的支撑,乡村高质量发展的过程实则也是乡村自身功能不断拓展和强化的过程[44]。由此,乡村多功能理论给进一步探讨乡村高质量发展的外延提供了一个很好的切入点。该理论认为社会发展过程中人类对乡村地域生产、消费和生态等多元功能的需求变化是乡村不断发展的核心驱动力[45]。因此,结合中国乡村振兴的时代背景,乡村高质量发展的外延包含以下几方面:乡村高质量发展需要充分发挥乡村生产功能,加强农业科技化、效率化、融合化和现代化,创建兴旺产业;需要充分发挥生态保育功能,健全生态保护补偿机制,优化乡村人居环境,实现生态宜居;需要充分发挥文化传承功能,坚守乡村传统优秀文化,丰富乡村文化生活,促成文明乡风;需要充分发挥社会稳定功能,促进自治法治德治有机结合,达成有效治理;需要充分发挥乡村主体发展功能,提高农民收入水平,改善生活质量,增进居民福祉,兑现共同富裕。简言之,乡村高质量发展是高质量的产业、生态、文化、治理以及民生的有机统一体。
2.2 金融驱动乡村高质量发展的内在机理
金融作为现代经济的核心,在促进资本积累和引导资源配置方面具有巨大优势,在乡村高质量发展大局中亦有不可替代的作用[46]。金融功能理论认为,金融助力乡村高质量发展的过程,是金融系统各项功能的发挥作用于乡村地域内生发展的过程[11]。换言之,即通过充分发挥各项金融功能,全面释放其产生的产业带动效应、环境美化效应、社会规范效应和民生改善效应等,从而为乡村地区的产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕提供坚强支撑和可靠保障。需要注意的是,在高速增长阶段,金融服务实体经济侧重规模和数量,且功能发挥以融资为主。在高质量发展时代语境下,金融供给更应重视质量和效率,才能适应乡村高质量发展的内在要求。因此,新时代金融发展应同时兼顾规模扩大、结构优化和效率提升3个维度。综上,金融影响乡村高质量发展的具体传导机制如图1所示。
图1
图1
金融促进乡村高质量发展的作用机制
Fig. 1
The transmission mechanism of finance affecting high-quality rural development
2.2.1 产业带动效应
2.2.2 环境美化效应
2.2.3 社会规范效应
金融发展除了金融机构自身的发展,还包括金融教育和金融法律法规的健全[11],由此金融还能够产生社会规范效应,从而为达成文明乡风和有效治理提供必要保障。一方面,金融机构的资源配置等功能可缓解乡村居民融资障碍,使他们通过借贷获得教育、健康等人力资本投资的机会,提升自身及下一代人力资本水平[24],进而提高他们的文化素养和自我发展能力。另一方面,随着金融法律法规的不断完善,以及专家讲座、普惠金融、理财宣传等各类金融教育活动的开展,可为乡村营造良好的金融经营环境,提升乡村居民的投资理财意识和诚信意识,提高他们的风险防范能力,有效遏制“欺骗性”金融创新和金融诈骗等金融犯罪行为,减少因骗致贫返贫发生率[52],助力农村信用体系建设。此外,通过创新金融服务、增加金融服务供给,还能更好地刺激乡土文化等相关产业发展,不断丰富人民的精神文化生活。
2.2.4 民生改善效应
综上所述,金融供给对乡村高质量发展的影响是通过产业带动、环境美化、社会规范和民生改善等多重效应共同作用下的一个“总量均衡效应”,而不是局限于某一方面或环节。总的来说,金融供给对乡村高质量发展产生积极的助推作用,且这种作用主要通过上述4种效应或渠道得以实现。
3 研究方法与数据来源
3.1 计量模型构建
基于上述内在机理分析,本文构建了固定效应模型和中介效应模型,以全面、系统地考察金融供给如何驱动乡村高质量发展的作用机制。首先,构建关于金融供给与乡村高质量发展的双向固定效应模型,即基准回归模型,具体如下:
式中:i代表地区(省域);t代表时间(年份);HQRDit代表乡村高质量发展水平;FDit代表金融发展水平;Controlit代表一系列控制变量;λi和ηt分别为地区和时间固定效应,用于控制地区和时间层面不可观测因素的干扰;εit是随机误差项;其余变量均为待估参数。
然后,构建相应的中介效应模型,用以检验金融影响乡村高质量发展的传导机制。中介效应模型能够很好地探析解释变量如何通过中间变量(机制变量)对被解释变量产生影响而产生的间接效应[55]。其基本思路是先考察金融供给对相关机制变量的影响,进而检验机制变量对乡村高质量发展的影响。根据上述理论阐释,本文将农业科技进步贡献率(AT)、绿色信贷水平(GF)、乡村人力资本水平(HC)、乡村消费水平(RC)作为中介变量,以分别检验相应的中介效应。具体的中介效应模型设定如下所示:
3.2 模型有效性检验
3.2.1 中介效应检验
图2
3.2.2 组间差异检验
3.3 变量测度与说明
3.3.1 乡村高质量发展水平的测度
表1 乡村高质量发展水平的评价指标体系
Tab. 1
维度 | 指标名称 | 度量方式及单位 | 属性 | 权重 |
---|---|---|---|---|
产业 兴旺 | 每公顷农业机械动力 | 机械总动力/耕地总面积(kW/hm2) | + | 0.03471 |
人均粮食产量 | 粮食总产量/农村总人口(kg) | + | 0.02865 | |
农业劳动生产率 | 农林牧渔业总产值/农村总人口(万元) | + | 0.14232 | |
万人农产品出口量 | 农产品出口数量/农村总人口×10000(t) | + | 0.02136 | |
农林牧渔服务业产值占比 | 农林牧渔服务业产值/农林牧渔总产值(%) | + | 0.02378 | |
农业多功能性拓展程度 | 休闲农业营业收入/第一产业产值(%) | + | 0.03239 | |
生态 宜居 | 农业生产中化肥使用强度 | 农业生产中化肥施用量/耕地总面积(t/hm2) | - | 0.01076 |
人均农村道路面积 | 农村道路面积/农村总人口(m2) | + | 0.05564 | |
人均绿化覆盖面积 | 农村绿化覆盖面积/农村总人口(m2) | + | 0.05028 | |
万人公共厕所数量 | 公共厕所数量/农村总人口×10000(个) | + | 0.00512 | |
床位与医护人员比例 | 床位数/乡镇卫生人员数(%) | + | 0.06451 | |
万人养老机构数 | 养老机构数/农村总人口×10000(个) | + | 0.03514 | |
乡风 文明 | 农村居民教文娱支出占比 | 农村居民教育文化娱乐支出/消费支出额(%) | + | 0.04687 |
人均乡镇文化站数量 | 乡镇文化站/农村总人口(个) | + | 0.03501 | |
农村有线广播电视数用户占比 | 农村有线广播电视用户数/家庭总户数(%) | + | 0.02004 | |
人均乡镇文化活动面积 | 乡镇文化活动用房面积/农村总人口(m2) | + | 0.03732 | |
人均乡镇藏书量 | 乡镇藏书量/农村总人口(册) | + | 0.03693 | |
治理 有效 | 村委会选举投票人数占比 | 村委会选举投票人数/农村总人口(%) | + | 0.03872 |
人均乡村综合服务中心面积 | 综合服务中心面积/农村总人口(m2) | + | 0.02535 | |
农村社会救济情况 | 农村居民最低生活保障人数/农村总人口(%) | - | 0.00971 | |
贫困发生率 | 贫困人口/农村人口(%) | - | 0.04858 | |
农村基尼系数 | 参照《中国基尼系数计算及其变动趋势分析》 | - | 0.03865 | |
生活 富裕 | 农村居民人均可支配收入 | 农村居民人均可支配收入(元) | + | 0.05686 |
农村居民工资性收入占比 | 农村居民工资性收入/可支配收入(%) | + | 0.01297 | |
农村居民计算机拥有量 | 农村居民每百户年末家用计算机拥有量(台) | + | 0.02463 | |
城乡居民最低生活保障标准比 | 城市/农村居民最低生活保障标准(%) | - | 0.01485 | |
恩格尔系数 | 农村食品烟酒消费支出/总消费支出(%) | - | 0.02993 | |
城乡收入差距比 | 城市居民可支配收入/农村居民可支配收入(%) | - | 0.01892 |
3.3.2 金融发展水平的测度
在高质量发展新时代,金融发展应同时兼顾规模、结构和效率3个维度[22],三者各有侧重、缺一不可。因此,本文采取等权重方法对金融规模、结构和效率进行赋权,并以此测算各省金融发展指数(FD)。具体而言,金融规模:用农村存贷款总额与地区生产总值的比率来度量;金融效率:用农村金融机构总贷款与总存款的比值来度量[23]。对于金融结构,目前认可度较高的度量方式是股票市场交易总额/金融机构贷款余额来表征[17];但股票交易数据目前还未严格地分为城市和乡村,更没有单独针对乡村股票交易的分时、分地数据,进行手动分割也缺乏合理的方式。因此,本文仍采用上述提到的方式来间接表征金融结构,尽管没有抽离出面向乡村的,但综合而言,比全部用大区域尺度的金融数据要更准确。
3.3.3 机制变量
本文主要涉及4个机制变量。① 产业带动效应主要侧重于以乡村企业为主体,开展农业生产、经营、管理等方面的研发与创新,加速农业科技进步,进而实现产业兴旺,这也是内生增长理论的基本要求[58]。因此,对这一效应,本文选取农业科技进步贡献率作为具体的代理变量,记为AT,其度量采用的是1997年原农业部提出的规范指标及其测算方法[21,59]。② 环境美化效应主要强调发挥绿色信贷、环境污染治理投资等金融工具的作用,优化乡村地域的生产、生活环境,提高生态宜居度。但目前还没有专门用于度量乡村绿色信贷水平的指标,直接利用区域绿色信贷指数[60](即各省六大高耗能产业利息支出占工业产业利息总支出的比率)又太过粗糙和牵强。考虑到绿色信贷与区域经济发展水平之间存在较明显的正向关系[61],本文用区域绿色信贷乘以“第一产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重”来线性拟合乡村绿色信贷水平,记为GF。③ 社会规范效应主要聚焦于借助金融工具来提升乡村居民的人力资本,从而为达成乡风文明和治理有效提供重要保障。因此,借鉴周云波等所建构的教育年限累积收益率方法[62],对中国各省域的乡村人力资本存量水平进行了测算,并将其作为社会规范效应的代理变量,记为HC。④ 在新时代促进乡村居民消费增长、提高消费率是满足他们美好生活需要和提升生活福利的重要手段。因此,民生改善效应侧重于通过金融增加乡村居民收入,促进乡村消费升级,从而提高乡村居民生活质量,故选取农村居民人均消费支出作为这一效应的代理变量,记为RC。
3.3.4 控制变量
在模型构建中,本文还考虑了对乡村发展可能产生影响的一些控制变量,以更加全面地把握乡村高质量发展过程中金融供给的驱动效应。具体控制变量有5个:区域经济发展水平(ED):用人均GDP的对数来表征;贸易开放度(TO):用农业进出口贸易总额比地区生产总值表示;人口结构:用乡村老年抚养比(OR)和少年儿童抚养比(JR)两个具体指数表征;城镇化水平(UR):用人口城镇化率表示;财政支农水平(FA):用农林水务支出额比上区域财政总支出表示。
3.4 数据来源
本文研究样本是中国31个省域单元(港澳台地区数据暂缺)2005—2020年的面板数据。研究数据主要来源于2006—2021年历年《中国农村统计年鉴》《中国统计年鉴》《中国人口和就业统计年鉴》《中国城乡建设统计年鉴》《中国民政统计年鉴》《中国社会统计年鉴》《中国农村贫困检测报告》《中国金融年鉴》《中国区域经济统计年鉴》《中国第三产业统计年鉴》《中国休闲农业年鉴》以及各省统计年鉴等。此外,本文还对少数极端值进行了Winsorize处理,个别缺失值通过3次样条插值法或线性拟合法予以补齐。
4 结果分析
4.1 总体特征事实分析
4.1.1 变量的描述性统计与有效性检验
本文主要变量的描述性统计结果如表2所示。乡村高质量发展指数(HQRD)的最大值为0.668,最小值为0.085,均值为0.245,标准误为0.063,反映出不同省域间乡村高质量发展水平差异较大。金融发展指数(FD)大体上呈现出“均值小、标准误大”的特点,各控制变量在不同地区也存在明显的差异。为减少数据分散度和异方差性的干扰,本文还对个别变量进行了自然对数或差分处理,然后利用HT检验方法对面板数据的有效性进行了检验。结果表明预处理后的变量均是平稳的,这保证了后续回归结果的有效性。此外,本文还计算了各变量的方差膨胀因子(VIF),以诊断它们是否存在共线性。显然,模型中的所有回归变量都没有共线性,因为方差膨胀因子均小于5。
表2 变量的描述性统计与有效性检验结果
Tab. 2
变量 | 含义 | 观测数 | 均值 | 标准误 | 最小值 | 最大值 | HT | VIF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HQRD | 乡村高质量发展指数 | 496 | 0.245 | 0.063 | 0.085 | 0.668 | 0.536***(-8.437) | - |
FD | 金融发展指数 | 496 | 0.403 | 0.172 | 0.022 | 0.938 | 0.432***(-6.17) | 1.48 |
d.ED | 经济发展水平的差分 | 496 | 0.096 | 0.071 | -0.252 | 0.255 | 0.191***(-17.974) | 1.24 |
TO | 贸易开放度 | 496 | 0.281 | 0.313 | 0.044 | 1.167 | 0.770**(-1.645) | 1.04 |
JR | 少年儿童抚养比 | 496 | 16.008 | 5.604 | 8.470 | 29.430 | 0.425***(-12.216) | 1.56 |
OR | 老年人口抚养比 | 496 | 26.511 | 7.661 | 13.170 | 39.130 | 0.552***(-8.318) | 1.98 |
d.UR | 城镇化水平的差分 | 496 | 1.182 | 0.812 | 0.000 | 4.980 | 0.141***(-19.423) | 1.49 |
FA | 财政支农水平 | 496 | 0.107 | 0.033 | 0.048 | 0.168 | 0.639***(-5.671) | 1.62 |
lnAT | 农业科技进步贡献率的对数 | 496 | 0.054 | 0.114 | -0.390 | 1.050 | 0.756**(-2.063) | 1.08 |
GF | 绿色信贷水平 | 496 | 0.043 | 0.122 | 0.021 | 0.067 | 0.562***(-6.136) | 1.15 |
HC | 乡村人力资本水平 | 496 | 10.226 | 0.808 | 8.283 | 11.425 | 0.577***(-7.574) | 1.8 |
lnRC | 乡村消费水平的对数 | 496 | 8.743 | 0.614 | -1.078 | 1.303 | 0.337***(-13.744) | 1.12 |
注:***、**、*分别表示1%、5%和10%的显著性水平;括号内数值为Z统计量。
4.1.2 金融与乡村高质量发展的时序演进特征
利用核密度估计曲线来揭示中国金融供给与乡村高质量发展水平的时序演进规律(图3)。首先,2005—2020年间中国金融发展指数的核密度分布曲线主峰位置持续向右平移,且主峰高度下降、水平宽度小幅拉大,这表明中国各省域的金融发展呈稳步提升态势,但区域间的差距也均趋于扩大。此外,金融发展指数还表现出向右拖尾的分布形态,意味着高强度省份依然存在。其次,2005—2020年间乡村高质量发展指数的核密度分布曲线在期初有所波动,可能是受取消农业税以及金融危机的影响,但随后主峰位置持续向右偏移,由双峰向单峰演变,且主峰宽度有所扩大,这表明中国乡村高质量发展水平呈稳步上升趋势,两极分化现象在减弱,但省域间差距趋于扩大。乡村高质量发展指数分布曲线持续存在明显的右拖尾现象,这意味着全国范围内乡村发展水平高的省份与平均水平差距在拉大。
图3
图3
2005—2020年中国金融和乡村高质量发展的分布形态及其演变
Fig. 3
Kernel density distribution of the financial development and high-quality rural development, 2005-2020
本文绘制了金融与中国乡村高质量发展之间的散点图(图4),以初步揭示二者之间的关系。简单的趋势分析表明金融与乡村高质量发展之间存在明显的正相关性。尽管散点图呈现的结果同前文的理论预期比较吻合,但金融影响乡村高质量发展的传导路径是复杂的,需要通过已构建的计量模型来加以实证检验。
图4
图4
金融与中国乡村高质量发展的线性拟合关系
Fig. 4
Linear fitting relationship between financial development and high-quality rural development
4.2 基准回归结果分析
基准回归仅考虑金融供给和控制变量对乡村高质量发展水平的影响。由于样本的F检验和豪斯曼检验的P值均为0,本文选择双向固定效应模型对构建的面板数据集进行回归分析。考虑到中国不同地区的金融和乡村发展水平都存在明显的区域异质性,以及乡村发展和金融改革所呈现出的阶段性特征[63],本文将全部样本分成若干个子样本进行分组探究。在时间维度,研究期内中国政府多次出台相关规划和指导意见,旨在强化金融在乡村发展中的功能和作用。其中,2014年的中央“一号文件”最具节点性和典型性。该文件首次明确指出要凸显金融机构服务“三农”的责任,全力支持符合条件的乡村企业上市融资,这将金融助力乡村发展提到了一个前所未有的高度。随后,金融促农的相关文件接踵而至。此外,2014年以后中国经济发展进入了新常态,宏观态势的转换也可能对金融与乡村发展的关系产生影响。故本文以2014年为临界点,将样本分为2005—2013年和2014—2020年两个子样本。在空间维度,分组依据相对简单,遵循传统的“东中西”空间分析范式,将31个省域划分为东部、中部和西部地区3个子样本。
表3为基准模型的回归结果。全部省域、东部、中部、西部地区以及2005—2013年、2014—2020年6个样本的回归结果显示,金融供给的系数分别为0.023、0.039、0.031、0.019、0.117和0.226。尽管回归系数大小存在差异,但都至少达到10%的显著性水平,表明无论是在不同地区还是不同时段,金融供给对乡村高质量发展均有显著而积极的作用。就时空异质性来看,在时间维度,2014年以后随着国家更加重视金融助农,金融助力乡村发展的作用更为明显,这也进一步验证了金融对乡村发展的影响具有时间上的累积效应;在空间维度,金融对东部地区乡村高质量的影响更为强劲。经由Fisher检验获得的经验P值也证实了上述差异在统计上的显著性,在两种分组情况下对应的经验P值分别为0.054 和0.023,均在10%水平上显著。
表3 基准模型回归结果
Tab. 3
变量 | 因变量HQRD | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
全部样本 | 东部地区 | 中部地区 | 西部地区 | 2005—2013年 | 2014—2020年 | |
FD | 0.023***(2.96) | 0.039***(3.53) | 0.031**(2.41) | 0.019***(4.03) | 0.117**(2.32) | 0.226***(3.64) |
dED | 0.047**(2.33) | 0.039**(2.45) | 0.027*(1.69) | 0.051**(2.04) | -0.155(-1.24) | 0.202**(2.16) |
TO | 0.074*(2.01) | 0.182*(2.33) | 0.154**(2.14) | 0.103*(1.91) | 0.321***(3.56) | 0.056(0.64) |
JR | 0.008***(3.73) | 0.014***(3.86) | 0.011***(7.56) | 0.006***(3.02) | 0.007(1.49) | 0.009**(2.47) |
OR | -0.004***(-3.82) | -0.012***(-2.59) | -0.005**(-2.12) | -0.003***(-4.52) | -0.003*(-1.67) | -0.009**(-2.41) |
dUR | -0.003*(-1.93) | -0.004(-1.16) | -0.007**(-2.48) | -0.003(-0.79) | -0.005(-0.78) | 0.002*(1.89) |
FA | -0.201*(-1.85) | 0.204***(2.63) | -0.149(-1.26) | 0.135*(1.78) | -0.326*(-1.76) | 0.302(1.62) |
常数项 | 0.223***(4.56) | -1.216***(-15.52) | 0.073(1.46) | 0.141***(5.64) | -1.327***(-15.57) | 0.237***(5.09) |
Province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
调整R2 | 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.18 | 0.17 |
F | 16.75 | 29.93 | 27.83 | 9.16 | 7.51 | 2.85 |
N | 496 | 165 | 135 | 176 | 279 | 217 |
经验P值 | 0.054 | 0.023 |
注:***、**、*分别表示1%、5%和10%的显著性水平;括号内的数值为t统计量;FE是指固定效应模型回归;经验P值为采用Bootstrap法得到的统计量,由于该方法主要用来检验两组任意估计量之间差异的显著性,若是3组样本则需两两对比、分3次回归检验。限于文章篇幅以及必要性,结合已有研究范式[
就控制变量的回归结果而言,经济发展水平和少年儿童抚养比对2005—2013年以外的其他5个子样本的回归系数均显著为正,表明二者对乡村高质量发展具有比较显著积极的促进作用。贸易开放程度对2014—2020年这一子样本的正向作用不显著,但对其余5个样本,其回归系数均显著为正。对于所有回归样本,老年人口抚养比对乡村高质量发展具有明显的抑制作用。城镇化水平对绝大多数样本的回归系数为负,表明其对乡村发展也具有抑制作用;但也要看到2014年后,城镇化对乡村发展的溢出效应已逐步凸显。财政支农对东部和西部地区乡村高质量发展具有明显的正向促进作用,但对其他样本的影响更多体现为负向或者不显著。
4.3 金融驱动乡村高质量发展的机制分析
本节将对前文提出的4种作用机制或路径进行逐一检验。考虑到中国金融供给和乡村发展在时空维度上的差异,本节仍以上述6类样本回归的形式对传导机制开展异质性分析。具体检验策略分两步:首先是单一作用机制检验,即每个作用机制下的回归样本均给出了两组相关系数,一组是自变量与中介变量的回归结果,另一组是加入中介变量后,自变量与因变量的回归结果;其次是所有作用机制的联合检验,即在上一步基础上,针对不同样本的作用机制差异,将显著性成立的几个机制同时加入中介变量模型以综合考察金融驱动乡村高质量发展的作用机制在不同地区和时期的差异。总的来看,对于各中介变量,至少有两组子样本符合参数阈值,表明AT、GF、HC、RC都是有效的中介变量;Fisher检验结果也表明基于时空两个维度的分组比较是可靠的,因为组间系数差异的经验P值在10%以内基本都显著。具体回归结果如表4~表8所示。
表4 传导机制1:金融发展与乡村科技进步的检验结果
Tab. 4
变量 | 全部样本 | 东部地区 | 中部地区 | 西部地区 | 2005—2013年 | 2014—2020年 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) lnAT | (2) HQRD | (3) lnAT | (4) HQRD | (5) lnAT | (6) HQRD | (7) lnAT | (8) HQRD | (9) lnAT | (10) HQRD | (11) lnAT | (12) HQRD | |
FD | 0.207** (2.18) | 0.098*** (6.83) | 0.152** (2.45) | 0.077** (1.99) | 0.113** (2.27) | 0.031* (1.89) | -0.384*** (-3.13) | -0.028*** (-3.012) | -0.157 (-1.25) | 0.046 (1.48) | 0.365** (2.64) | 0.112*** (3.95) |
lnAT | 0.085*** (16.54) | 0.066*** (8.84) | 0.048* (1.72) | -0.016** (-2.37) | 0.033 (1.44) | 0.127*** (15.87) | ||||||
控制变量 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
调整R2 | 0.51 | 0.21 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.26 |
N | 496 | 496 | 165 | 165 | 135 | 135 | 176 | 176 | 279 | 279 | 217 | 217 |
F | 57.12 | 167.45 | 38.24 | 60.76 | 21.03 | 16.85 | 43.56 | 16.76 | 73.86 | 89.37 | 23.29 | 99.74 |
Sobel检验 | Z = 2.16,P < 0.05 | Z = 2.36,P < 0.05 | Z = 1.37 > 0.97,P = 0.170 | Z = 1.89 > 0.97, P = 0.059 | - | Z = 2.60, P < 0.05 | ||||||
经验P值 | P1 = 0.035, P2 = 0.056 | P1 = 0.018,P2 = 0.035 |
注:***、**、*分别表示1%、5%和10%的显著性水平;括号内的数值为t统计量;-表示未通过Sobel检验;P1是自变量对中介变量回归系数的组间差异检验的经验P值,P2是加入中介变量后,自变量对因变量回归系数的组间差异检验值,下表同。
表5 传导机制2:金融发展与乡村绿色信贷的检验结果
Tab. 5
变量 | 全部样本 | 东部地区 | 中部地区 | 西部地区 | 2005—2013年 | 2014—2020年 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) GF | (2) HQRD | (3) GF | (4) HQRD | (5) GF | (6) HQRD | (7) GF | (8) HQRD | (9) HQGF | (10) HQRD | (11) GF | (12) GQRD | ||||||
FD | 0.051(1.25) | 0.078(0.84) | 0.078**(2.57) | 0.055**(6.23) | 0.032*(1.76) | 0.042(0.104) | -0.071(-0.75) | 0.033*(1.91) | 0.057(0.78) | 0.027(0.88) | 0.086***(3.32) | 0.079**(2.55) | |||||
GF | 0.328**(2.19) | 0.274***(3.83) | 0.173(0.99) | 0.112(1.16) | -0.095(-1.25) | 0.138**(2.66) | |||||||||||
控制变量 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
调整R2 | 0.46 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 0.73 | 0.34 | 0.61 | 0.18 | |||||
N | 496 | 496 | 176 | 176 | 135 | 135 | 176 | 176 | 279 | 279 | 217 | 217 | |||||
F | 35.04 | 5.01 | 13.13 | 25.94 | 8.12 | 16.56 | 8.95 | 21.87 | 13.01 | 29.84 | 64.66 | 55.31 | |||||
Sobel检验 | - | Z = 2.12, P < 0.05 | - | - | - | Z = 2.08, P < 0.05 | |||||||||||
经验P值 | P1 = 0.056, P2 =0.074 | P1 = 0.066, P2 = 0.089 |
表6 传导机制3:乡村高质量发展与人力资本的检验结果
Tab. 6
变量 | 全部样本 | 东部地区 | 中部地区 | 西部地区 | 2005—2013年 | 2014—2020年 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) HC | (2) HQRD | (3) HC | (4) HQRD | (5) HC | (6) HQRD | (7) HC | (8) HQRD | (9) HC | (10) HQRD | (11) HC | (12) HQRD | ||||||
FD | 0.423**(2.07) | 0.051(1.41) | 0.351***(4.35) | 0.033**(2.37) | 0.304**(2.21) | 0.022(1.03) | 1.124***(5.15) | 0.013(1.35) | 0.501***(2.87) | 0.025(1.32) | 0.087***(6.03) | 0.039*(1.78) | |||||
HC | -0.013(1.22) | 0.041***(2.96) | 0.035(1.45) | -0.023(-1.27) | 0.016(1.03) | 0.021**(2.02) | |||||||||||
控制变量 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
调整R2 | 0.65 | 0.34 | 0.72 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.21 | 0.61 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 0.22 | 0.64 | 0.51 | |||||
N | 465 | 465 | 165 | 165 | 135 | 135 | 176 | 176 | 279 | 279 | 217 | 217 | |||||
F | 105.43 | 44.67 | 81.65 | 31.43 | 45.98 | 23.67 | 88.54 | 65.12 | 23.53 | 21.68 | 12.76 | 11.56 | |||||
Sobel检验 | - | Z = 2.45, P < 0.05 | - | - | - | Z = 2.06, P < 0.05 | |||||||||||
经验P值 | P1 = 0.037, P2 = 0.041 | P1 = 0.028, P2 = 0.033 |
表7 传导机制4:金融发展与乡村消费的检验结果
Tab. 7
变量 | 全部样本 | 东部地区 | 中部地区 | 西部地区 | 2005—2013年 | 2014—2020年 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) lnRC | (2) HQRD | (3) lnRC | (4) HQRD | (5) lnRC | (6) HQRD | (7) lnRC | (8) HQRD | (9) lnRC | (10) HQRD | (11) lnRC | (12) HQRD | ||||||
FD | 0.092***(3.24) | 0.066***(4.13) | 0.483***(3.02) | 0.124**(2.44) | 0.348**(2.35) | 0.074**(2.27) | 0.248***(3.79) | 0.051***(3.65) | 0.115**(2.15) | 0.063***(5.66) | 0.467***(4.55) | 0.124***(3.87) | |||||
lnRC | 0.061***(9.87) | 0.093***(7.65) | 0.063***(2.98) | 0.041***(2.76) | 0.058***(8.22) | 0.212***(4.18) | |||||||||||
控制变量 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
调整R2 | 0.67 | 0.46 | 0.79 | 0.47 | 0.71 | 0.52 | 0.63 | 0.21 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.34 | |||||
N | 496 | 496 | 165 | 165 | 135 | 135 | 176 | 176 | 279 | 279 | 217 | 217 | |||||
F | 113.72 | 182.47 | 23.89 | 79.56 | 57.84.43 | 24.39 | 126.83 | 25.63 | 60.32 | 103.58 | 55.82 | 85.84 | |||||
Sobel检验 | Z = 3.08, P < 0.05 | Z = 2.81, P < 0.05 | Z = 1.84 > 0.97, P = 0.065 | Z = 2.23, P < 0.05 | Z = 2.08, P < 0.05 | Z = 3.08, P < 0.05 | |||||||||||
经验P值 | P1 = 0.059, P2 = 0.067 | P1 = 0.068, P2 = 0.091 |
表8 金融发展驱动乡村高质量发展的机制联合检验
Tab. 8
因变量HQRD | 东部地区 (1) | 中部地区 (2) | 西部地区 (3) | 2005—2013年 (4) | 2014—2020年 (5) | 全部样本 (6) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FD | 0.036***(4.25) | 0.025**(2.01) | 0.021*** (2.78) | 0.112*(1.67) | 0.207***(3.59) | 0.016**(2.34) |
lnAT | 0.057***(3.43) | 0.042**(2.16) | 0.095***(4.28) | |||
GF | 0.236***(6.02) | 0.117***(2.89) | ||||
HC | 0.040**(2.51) | 0.019**(2.17) | ||||
lnRC | 0.066***(4.32) | 0.051***(2.79) | 0.038***(4.51) | 0.049***(6.63) | 0.147***(2.64) | 0.058***(5.74) |
控制变量 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
调整R2 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.42 | 0.68 | 0.51 |
N | 165 | 135 | 176 | 279 | 217 | 496 |
F | 34.87 | 23.65 | 21.12 | 23.36 | 30.54 | 26.33 |
根据传导机制1,金融发展可能会通过农业科技进步渠道,释放产业带动效应,驱动乡村高质量发展。就全部省域样本回归结果看,如表4中(1)和(2)列所示,回归系数均为正,且至少在5%水平上显著,这表明金融供给确实通过促进乡村研发创新和技术进步而推动了乡村高质量发展,但各子样本的回归结果则存在较大差异。在时间维度,2014—2020年这一组与全部样本的结论吻合,但影响强度和显著性水平相较于全样本均有所提升。这主要得益于自2013年实施创新驱动发展战略后,各类金融工具协同支持创新发展的良好局面日趋形成,且不断向乡村地区拓展。对于2005—2013年这一组样本,表4中(9)和(10)列对应的回归系数均不显著,表明这一时期金融发展对乡村研发创新和技术进步还未产生积极作用。
在空间维度,只有东部地区的回归结果显示金融发展显著推动乡村研发创新水平和技术进步,进而促进乡村高质量发展,如表4中(3)和(4)列所示,回归系数分别为0.152和0.077,且在5%水平上显著。中部地区通过相应的显著性检验,但金融对乡村科技进步的正向促进作用比较微弱。对于西部地区,回归结果显示金融显著影响科技进步,进而对乡村高质量发展产生影响,但这种影响表现为明显的抑制效应,如表4中(7)、(8)列所示。可能的原因是中国乡村地区仍存在金融排斥现象,且在西部地区更为明显[63],这会制约农村科技投入的配置、掣肘农村科技进步,增加农业研发创新过程中的不确定性。此外,西部地区乡村的市场化程度和信息透明度均较低,使其更难得到具有逐利性的资本的支持,因为科技进步渠道往往导致金融体系对城乡两个地域系统的促进作用存在不对称性[54],社会资金更愿意流入研发创新和技术进步更具有优势的城市,而本该流入乡村的资金供给则被挤占,因而不利于促进乡村高质量发展,甚至可能加大城乡之间的鸿沟。
根据传导机制2,金融发展可能会通过绿色信贷渠道,释放环境美化效应,驱动乡村高质量发展。从检验结果来看,只有东部地区和2014—2020年这两组样本的回归显示金融发展推动了乡村绿色信贷规模的扩大,促进了乡村高质量发展,但这种驱动作用还处于较低的水平。如表5中(3)和(4)列、(11)和(12)列,回归系数均为正,且至少在5%水平上显著。对于全样本及其他子样本,金融发展与乡村绿色发展之间并未体现很强的关联性,金融的环境美化效应在目前还缺乏证据支持。
可能的原因在于:一方面,东部地区金融和乡村发展整体基础水平较高,近年来更加注重利用绿色信贷等金融工具来促进乡村田园综合体、旅游风情小镇等项目建设[59],大力开展农村人居环境整治,提升了乡村生态宜居度;再者,通过“环保贷”等产品引导更多绿色信贷资金投向生态循环农业和和乡村企业转型,推动乡村发展向绿色化、低碳化转型,不断减少环境污染,培育“美丽经济”。因此,对于这两组样本,金融发展的环境提升效应得以显现。但由于绿色金融在中国发展时间较短,且相关政策具有时滞性,因此其提升作用还未形成规模效应。另一方面,对于2005—2013年以及中、西部地区,由于其整体发展水平较低,且绿色金融和乡村振兴刚处于探索性起步阶段,金融部门、机构在全域环境污染治理的投入相对较少,农业银行、农业发展银行等政策性金融机构的业务内容主要集中在城市,且短期内难以延伸触角大规模介入乡村业务,少量涉农信贷产品主要以扶贫信贷为主,因此支持乡村高质量发展的绿色金融产品比较缺乏,也未突出乡村振兴绿色发展主题导向,加上乡村高质量发展资金需求与绿色金融供给排斥矛盾同时存在[64],引致这几组样本的金融发展、乡村绿色信贷和乡村高质量发展之间的关联不明显。
根据传导机制3,金融发展可能会通过人力资本渠道,释放社会规范效应,驱动乡村高质量发展。从回归结果来看,金融发展对乡村人力资本的影响系数在全样本和所有的子样本回归中都显著为正,如表6中的单数序号列所示,说明金融发展确实有助于提升乡村人力资本水平。这可能是因为21世纪以来中国相继实施了专项扶贫贴息贷款、小额信贷、新农保等“阳光信贷”惠农工程,这在很大程度上增加了乡村居民的信贷可得性,缓解了他们的资金短缺压力和生活压力,使其能够支付更多元的人力资本投资,提高了人力资本质量与数量。再者,随着普惠金融的引入和推广,农村征信体系逐步建立,村民的市场化和现代化意识得以增强,农户的风险防范意识和信用意识也得以提高。但金融对乡村人力资本水平的助推作用区域差异显著,表现出西部>中部>东部的趋向,这既体现在3组样本的回归系数大小的差异,也体现在组间调整系数差异的显著性水平上。可能的解释是东部地区金融服务体系相对完善,早已从金融发展中获益,且东部乡村经济与社会发展水平较高,因此金融推动乡村人力资本的边际效益相对有限;而中、西部地区尤其是西部地区的整体发展水平与东部地区还有较大的差距,普惠金融的推广很好地改善了以往的“因学致贫”等现象,因而金融提升乡村人力资本的边际效益更高。
研究进一步发现,人力资本促进乡村高质量发展的作用机制在东部地区和2014—2020年这两组样本回归中得到了验证,其相关系数分别为0.033和0.039,在5%水平上显著为正。相比之下,在中部、西部和2005—2013年3组的回归中,其相关系数并不显著,说明人力资本对乡村高质量发展的驱动作用在这些地区或时段还没有显现出来,这与传导机制2的情形相似。出现上述差异原因在于:由于客观条件的限制,中西部地区乡村人才流失以及所引致的人才缺乏仍是普遍现象[19],尽管金融发展提升了他们的乡村人力资本水平,但其并未很好地转化为乡村高质量发展的内生动力。而在东部地区,随着城乡一体化水平的大幅提升,使其乡村既留得住美景又留得住人,还引得来人,并产生了人才集聚的正向外部效应。
根据传导机制4,金融发展可能会通过居民消费渠道,释放民生改善效应,驱动乡村高质量发展。金融对乡村居民消费水平的影响系数在全样本和所有子样本回归中都显著为正,如表7中的奇数序号列的相关系数。加入居民消费中介变量后,金融发展对乡村高质量发展的促进作用仍然是显著而积极的,如表7中的偶数序号列的相关系数。这表明金融发展确实有助于提高乡村消费水平而驱动乡村高质量发展。可能的原因在于各地金融服务水平的提升,显著降低了乡村地区居民消费的预算约束和流动性约束,尤其是新型农村合作医疗及惠农贷等政策的贯彻落实,减少了乡村居民的预防性储蓄,既提升他们的消费能力,还增强了消费意愿,并推动乡村消费结构开始由生存型向发展和享受型跃迁,从而能够更好地满足他们美好生活的需要。
但也要看到金融发展对乡村消费和乡村高质量发展的整体促进作用还不是很强,全样本的回归系数分别为0.092、0.061。这可能是因为大多数地区的乡村居民所享受的金融服务以农村存款和农村保险为主,而它们对乡村消费会产生挤出效应。从各子样本的估计结果来看,在空间维度,金融对东部地区乡村居民消费,乃至对乡村高质量发展的促进作用更为明显,中部地区次之,西部地区最小;在时间维度,2014—2020年这组样本的结果更为显著,这些与基准回归均比较一致。组间差异检验结果也进一步证实了上述分异在统计上是显著的,基于空间和时间的分组对应的经验P值分别为0.067、0.091,均达到10%的显著性水平。其原因在于东部地区的经济发展阶段、水平以及金融体系都处于领先地位,且物理环境和消费环境更加优越,因此金融服务乡村时具有更强的地理穿透性和低成本优势;乡村居民的消费理念和投资意识也更超前,享受的金融服务产品更加多元,这会进一步放大他们的财富效应和收入效应。因此,这里的乡村居民越来越注重健康、交通通信等高品质消费,这不仅有助于提升生活质量和福利水平,还能扩大内需,为乡村高质量发展培育更强劲的内生动力。而中西部地区,尽管乡村居民收入水平不断提高,但依然存在农村消费结构调整与收入水平不匹配的问题,服务型消费供给不充分、居民消费率偏低等现象在农村地域仍较为普遍[54],加上金融服务体系仍不够健全,这都在一定程度上限制了金融在促进乡村消费和乡村高质量发展上的助推作用。
在上述分析的基础上,本文将所有显著性成立的中介变量同时加入模型,进行联合检验,在东部地区这组样本中加入lnAT、GF、HC和lnRC这4个中介变量,在中部地区加入lnAT和lnRC这两个变量,在西部地区加入lnRC这一个变量,在2005—2013年这组样本加入lnRC这一个变量,在2014—2020年加入lnAT、GF、HC和lnRC这4个变量,对应的回归结果如表8所示。可以看出,核心解释变量和中介变量的估计系数仍旧显著。从空间维度来看,对于东部地区而言,金融发展是通过“推动科技进步、增加绿色信贷供给、提升人力资本和推动消费升级”4个渠道来驱动乡村高质量发展的;对中部地区,金融发展主要通过“科技进步和消费升级”2个渠道来促进乡村高质量发展;对西部地区,金融发展目前还只能通过“消费升级”1个渠道来推动乡村高质量发展。从时间维度来看,对于2005—2013年这一阶段,金融发展只通过“消费升级”1个渠道来推动乡村高质量发展,而进入2014—2020年这一时期后,金融发展则能通过“科技进步、绿色信贷、人力资本和消费升级”4个渠道来驱动乡村高质量发展。对所有样本而言,消费升级是金融驱动乡村高质量发展的共同渠道。金融发展带来的产业带动效应、环境美化效应和人力资本效应只存在于部分子样本。
4.4 稳健性分析
尽管基准回归表明金融发展对乡村高质量发展具有显著的助推效应,但乡村发展质量越高,越能积累和运用资金,进而在金融发展方面也有着“先发优势”,这可能会使本文实证部分的因果关系判断面临内生性问题。因此,为确保研究结论的可靠性,本文采用了两种方法来进行稳健性检验。① 考虑到本文的被解释变量是由多个指标加权得到的综合指数,在综合集成过程中,本身就对主要变量附加了一系列约束条件,这可能引起不必要的扰动,从而造成估计结果的偏差。因此,本文运用主成分分析法重新测算了乡村高质量发展指数(NHQRD)并进行回归估计,结果如表9的奇数列所示。可以看出,对于所有样本,金融对乡村发展的回归系数变化不大,与前文基准回归是一致的。② 利用工具变量法来破解潜在的内生性问题。借鉴宋岩等的方法[65],选取金融发展指数的平均水平(AFD)作为工具变量。在工具变量不可识别检验中,Kleibergen-Paap rk的LM统计量的显著性均小于0.001,故拒绝原假设;在弱工具变量检验中Wald F统计量明显大于弱识别检验10%上的临界值,这均表明所选工具变量是有效的。如表9中的偶数序号列所示,在考虑了内生性之后,金融发展对乡村高质量发展的正向助推效应依旧成立,结果均在5%水平下显著,这进一步验证了基准模型估计的稳健性。
表9 基准模型的稳健性回归结果
Tab. 9
变量 | 全部样本 | 东部地区 | 中部地区 | 西部地区 | 2005—2013年 | 2014—2020年 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) FE | (2) IV | (3) FE | (4) IV | (5) FE | (6) IV | (7) FE | (8) IV | (9) FE | (10) IV | (11) FE | (12) IV | ||||||
FD | 0.027*** (2.99) | 0.046*** (3.31) | 0.038** (2.51) | 0.021*** (3.67) | 0.125*** (6.12) | 0.244*** (4.75) | |||||||||||
NHQRD | 0.021*** (3.82) | 0.035*** (2.76) | 0.029** (2.23) | 0.017*** (4.18) | 0.123*** (5.65) | 0.228** (2.42) | |||||||||||
控制变量 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM | 46.15 [0.000] | 49.65 [0.000] | 62.46 [0.000] | 35.73 [0.000] | 55.48 [0.000] | 54.17 [0.000] | |||||||||||
Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F | 43.58 {16.38} | 56.42 {16.38} | 59.85 {16.38} | 44.23 {16.38} | 53.37 {16.38} | 57.78 {16.38} | |||||||||||
调整R2 | 0.55 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 0.32 | 0.58 | |||||
N | 496 | 496 | 165 | 165 | 135 | 135 | 176 | 176 | 279 | 279 | 217 | 217 |
注:IV即采用工具变量回归;[ ]内为P值,{ }内为Stock-Yog弱识别检验10%平上的临界值。
5 结论与讨论
5.1 结论
本文立足于金融供给极大影响中国乡村发展这一典型事实,基于2005—2020年中国31个省域的面板数据(港澳台地区数据暂缺),在构建乡村高质量发展指数和金融供给综合水平指数的基础上,利用面板固定效应模型和中介效应模型,并充分考虑时间和空间两个维度的异质性,全面、系统地检验了金融对乡村高质量发展的影响渠道及其内在机制。主要结论为:
(1)2005—2020年中国31个省份金融供给指数和乡村高质量发展指数的核密度分布均表现出向右平移的趋向,即两者均呈现总体提升的态势,但区域差异明显。
(2)金融供给对乡村高质量发展具有显著的正向促进效应,已然成为中国乡村振兴的重要驱动力量;在重新测算被解释变量以及利用工具变量进行稳健性检验后,这一结论仍旧成立。但是这种正向作用呈现出明显的时空异质性:从空间维度看,金融对东部地区乡村高质量的影响更为强劲;从时间维度看,在2014年以后,随着国家更加重视金融助农,金融助力乡村发展的作用也更为明显。Fisher检验的经验P值也证实了上述组间差异在统计上是显著的。
(3)理论上而言,金融供给能够通过产业带动、环境美化、社会规范和民生改善四重效应促进乡村高质量发展,但中介效应模型实证检验表明金融驱动乡村高质量发展的路径会因地区差异(表现为经济发展水平的差异)和时期差异(表现为政策支持力度的差异)而有所不同。对于全部省域的总样本及5个子样本,促进乡村消费升级、释放民生改善效应是金融驱动乡村高质量发展的共同渠道,而金融发展带来的产业带动效应、环境美化效应和社会规范效应只存在于部分子样本,各渠道的适用性存在差异。除了上述共同渠道外,东部地区金融发展还通过推动科技进步、增加绿色信贷供给和提升人力资本3个渠道来驱动乡村高质量发展,中部地区金融发展还通过提高创新水平来促进乡村高质量发展;进入2014—2020年这一阶段,科技进步、绿色信贷、人力资本和消费升级4个渠道均有助于乡村高质量发展。
5.2 讨论
本文进一步证实了金融可以推动乡村高质量发展,这也意味着让金融活水“滴灌”乡村振兴沃土是时代赋予金融的使命与任务。为了让金融更好地赋能乡村高质量发展,本文的对策启示如下。
一方面,在金融供给能够成为促进乡村高质量发展的新动能现实之下,各级政府及相关组织须充分利用现代科技推动乡村金融基础设施的转型升级,提高基础金融服务的覆盖率和效率,合力为乡村高质量发展搭建综合性、专业化的金融服务体系,为广大乡村地区提供更加便捷高效公平的金融服务。此外,要鼓励各类金融机构开发、推行适应乡村振兴和迎合乡村居民需求的金融产品,如中国农业银行等银行机构应给予符合条件的农村居民、农业企业等农村金融主体更多的税收优惠和贷款利率优惠,进一步凸显政策性金融机构的“温度”与“情怀”;城市各类商业银行及金融机构也可根据自身的优势,进一步向将业务向乡村拓展,努力探索符合自身特色的金融赋能乡村振兴之路。
另一方面,金融发展能够通过驱动科技进步、绿色信贷、人力资本和消费升级等渠道为实现乡村高质量发展提供新的动力机制和路径,但在具体实践过程中需进一步畅通相关渠道。首先,应着力改善乡村地区(尤其是中西部地区)在农业科技进步方面的融资约束,重视乡村企业在“大众创新、万众创业”方面的金融需求,提高其乡村高质量发展的可持续性。其次,不断完善绿色金融助推乡村振兴的配套机制,优化支持乡村振兴的绿色金融生态环境,畅通绿色贷款渠道,进一步释放乡村生态环境治理的正外部性。再次,要努力缓解乡村地区在人力资本提升方面的信贷约束,既要引导金融资源向乡村教育医疗、农业生产指导和非农就业培训等倾斜,又要重视返乡创业精英、乡贤能人的合理金融需求。此外,要将普惠金融、金融科技创新等与传统金融相结合,增加乡村消费信贷供给,满足乡村居民更高层次的消费需求,以消费升级推动乡村高质量发展。最后,要充分发挥东部地区、城市地区的“涓滴效应”和“溢出效应”,以带动全域乡村高质量发展。
整体而言,本文在统一框架下探讨了金融供给主要通过何种路径驱动乡村高质量发展这一根本性问题,既丰富金融地理学和乡村地理学的研究视角,又为金融促进乡村高质量发展提供了一系列经验证据。但是,囿于研究数据的可获得性,一些非常具有代表性的指标没能纳入评价指标体系和计量模型,如非农产业从业人员占比、人均农产品出口额、农村居民每百户年末家用汽车拥有量、农村绿色金融等。随着数据不断完善,可开展更为精准、全面的探究。此外,依靠互联网和金融科技兴起的数字普惠金融已逐渐进入乡村地域,未来可在比较传统金融与数字金融对乡村影响差异的基础上,寻求金融促进乡村高质量发展的其他传导路径。
致谢
感谢审稿专家针对本文指标体系完善、核心变量计算及组间差异检验等方面提出的宝贵修改意见。
参考文献
Study on the measurement of economic high-quality development level in China in the new era
新时代中国经济高质量发展水平的测度研究
Approaches to rural transformation and sustainable development in the context of urban-rural integration
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Exploring the evolution rules of rural transformation is significant for systematically understanding stages of rural development, judging trends of rural development, determining paths of rural sustainable development and promoting rural vitalization. Based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory, industrial structure evolution theory, and regional spatial structure theory, this paper deduced the evolutionary stages of rural transformation. The evolutionary stages were verified by analysis of the development process of typical villages. Further, this paper explored the implication for rural sustainable development in the new era. The results showed that: (1) Evolutionary process of rural transformation included four stages. The first was the cropland-engineering stage, aiming at realizing the need for food and clothing under the uniform distribution of productivity. The second was the agricultural structure adjustment stage, aiming at increasing income under the intensifying urban-rural relationship status. The third was the industrial restructuring, aiming at improving the quality of life under the strengthening of regional linkages. The fourth was the stage of promoting the equalization of public service facilities with the goal of urban-rural equivalence under the urban-rural integration. (2) The development course of typical developed villages confirmed the evolution rules of rural transformation to some extent. (3) In practice, the evolutionary process of rural development presented skip or parallel phenomena because of regional differentiation of resources, location, market size, and willingness. According to the changes of the roles of different groups in development course, each stage could be subdivided into initial stage, transition stage, and maturation stage. (4) Based on the analysis of evolutionary rules of rural transformation, the paths of rural sustainable development in different types of region included land consolidation and agglomeration path, specialty industrial development path, industrial platform for collection and distribution path, and community function intensification path in the context of urban-rural integration.
城乡融合背景下乡村转型与可持续发展路径探析
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201912010
[本文引用: 1]
探究乡村转型发展规律对于系统认识乡村发展阶段、研判乡村发展趋势、明确乡村可持续路径、促进乡村转型与振兴具有重要意义。首先基于马斯洛需求层次理论、产业结构演变理论、区域空间结构理论等演绎乡村转型发展阶段,然后结合典型乡村发展历程分析进行实证检验,进而探讨对于新时期乡村可持续发展的启示。研究结果:① 乡村转型发展在理论上可分为4个阶段,一是生产力均匀分布下以实现温饱需求为目标的土地整治促增产阶段,二是城乡联系增强下以改善生活水平为目标的农业结构调整促增收阶段,三是区域联系增强下以提升生活质量为目标的产业结构调整促致富阶段,四是城乡互动融合下以城乡等值为目标的公服设施建设促均等阶段。② 典型发达乡村的发展历程在一定程度上印证了乡村转型发展阶段特征。③ 因资源基础、区位条件、市场规模、发展主动性等因素的差异,乡村实际发展过程可能存在阶段的跃迁或并行的现象。根据发展过程中不同主体发挥作用的变化,每个阶段又可细分为初始阶段、过渡阶段和成熟阶段。④ 基于乡村转型发展规律分析,城乡融合背景下不同类型地区乡村可持续发展路径可分为土地整治集聚路径、特色产业发展路径、产业平台集散路径和社区功能集约路径等4类。
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DOI:10.11821/dlyj020210719
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High-quality development is the only way to consolidate strategic achievements of building a moderately prosperous society, and to draw up the grand blueprint of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035 and building China into a great modern socialist country by 2050. In this paper, we study the issue from the city level. Based on the new concept of development, the evaluation system is established. With the help of the vertical and horizontal level division method and fixed-based efficiency coefficient method, high-quality development comprehensive indexes are synthesized. Then, this paper applies spatial auto-correlation analysis, spatial Gini coefficient, Markov transfer matrix, panel regression model to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and driving factors of high-quality development of Chinese cities in the new era. The results show that: (1) The level of high-quality development of Chinese cities had been continuously optimized from 2012 to 2019, and high-quality development comprehensive indexes of eastern, central, southwestern and northwestern cities continue to increase, while that of northeastern cities first increase and then decrease. (2) In the process of high-quality development, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations are vanguards, urban agglomeration of Ningxia along the Yellow River, rank relatively low, while central-south Liaoning urban agglomeration faces the pressure of declining development quality. (3) The level of high-quality development of Chinese cities decreases from east to west with prominent spatial agglomeration, but the imbalance of high-quality development is alleviated over time. Cities with lower quality status have the power to jump to a higher level. However, the transition becomes more and more difficult. At the same time, there is a risk that the development quality of Chinese cities could be transferred to the lower level. (4) Low altitude, gentle topography, significant industrial agglomeration externality, huge market size, adequate public financial support, continuous and in-depth opening up are the driving forces for high-quality development of Chinese cities. In order to drive high-quality development of Chinese cities, we have responsibilities to implement the new concept of development by advocating innovative development, paying attention to coordinated development, accelerating green development, attaching importance to opening-up development, and promoting shared development. In this process, first-mover cities will play a leading role in propelling high-quality development of later-mover cities, and reshaping Chinese economic geography pattern to achieve “universal boiling” vision.
新时代中国城市高质量发展的时空演进格局与驱动因素
DOI:10.11821/dlyj020210719
[本文引用: 2]
高质量发展是巩固全面建成小康社会战略成果的必由之路,是绘制建设社会主义现代化国家宏伟蓝图的不二法门。本文将研究的空间尺度下移至城市层面,基于新发展理念构建评价体系,合成了高质量发展综合指数,通过空间自相关分析、空间基尼系数、马尔科夫转移矩阵、面板回归模型等统计与计量方法,剖析新时代中国城市高质量发展的时空演进格局与驱动因素。研究表明:① 2012—2019年中国城市高质量发展水平不断提升,其中东部、中部、西南、西北城市高质量发展综合指数持续增加,东北城市则先降后升。② 长三角城市群、珠三角城市群在高质量发展进程中充当了排头兵角色,宁夏沿黄城市群高质量发展排名相对靠后,辽中南城市群面临发展质量下滑的压力。③ 中国城市高质量发展在空间上大体呈现由东向西递减的规律,空间集聚特征突出,但高质量发展失调问题随时间推移得到缓解,低质量、中低质量、中等质量与中高质量状态城市具有向上一等级跃迁的动力,但难度逐级提升。此外,中国城市发展质量存在向下一等级转移的风险。④ 海拔高度、地形地势、产业集聚、市场规模、公共财政、对外开放均能显著影响中国城市高质量发展。为全方位驱动新时代中国城市高质量发展,需贯彻落实新发展理念,发挥先发城市的领头雁作用,带动后发城市高质量发展,通过重塑中国经济地理格局达成“普遍沸腾”的愿景。
Research on the urban-rural integration and rural revitalization in the new era in China
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201804004
[本文引用: 2]
Cities and villages are components of a specific organism. Only the sustainable development of two parts can support the prosperous development as a whole. According to the theory of man-earth areal system, urban-rural integrated system and rural regional system are the theoretical bases for entirely recognizing and understanding urban-rural relationship. To handle the increasingly severe problems of "rural disease" in rapid urbanization, accelerating rural revitalization in an all-round way is not only a major strategic plan for promoting the urban-rural integration and rural sustainable development, but also a necessary requirement for solving the issues related to agriculture, rural areas, and rural people in the new era and securing a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. This study explores the basic theories of urban-rural integration and rural revitalization and analyzes the main problems and causes of rural development in the new era, proposing problem-oriented scientific approaches and frontier research fields of urban-rural integration and rural revitalization in China. Results show that the objects of urban-rural integration and rural revitalization is a regional multi-body system, which mainly includes urban-rural integration, rural complex, village-town organism, and housing-industry symbiosis. Rural revitalization focuses on promoting the reconstruction of urban-rural integration system and constructs a multi-level goal system including urban-rural infrastructure networks, zones of rural development, fields of village-town space and poles of rural revitalization. Currently, the rural development is facing the five problems: high-speed non-agricultural transformation of agriculture production factors, over-fast aging and weakening of rural subjects, increasingly hollowing and abandoning of rural construction land, severe fouling of rural soil and water environment and deep pauperization of rural poverty-stricken areas. The countryside is an important basis for the socioeconomic development in China, and the strategies of urban-rural integration and rural revitalization are complementary. The rural revitalization focuses on establishing the institutional mechanism for integrated urban-rural development and constructs the comprehensive development system of rural regional system, which includes transformation, reconstruction and innovation in accordance with the requirements of thriving businesses, pleasant living environments, social etiquette and civility, effective governance, and prosperity. Geographical research on rural revitalization should focus on the complexity and dynamics of rural regional system and explore new schemes, models and scientific approaches for the construction of villages and towns, which are guided by radical cure of "rural disease", implement the strategy of rural revitalization polarization, construct the evaluation index system and planning system of rural revitalization, thus providing advanced theoretical references for realizing the revitalization of China's rural areas in the new era.
中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201804004
[本文引用: 2]
城市与乡村是一个有机体,只有二者可持续发展,才能相互支撑。依据人地关系地域系统学说,城乡融合系统、乡村地域系统是全新认知和理解城乡关系的理论依据。针对日益严峻的“乡村病”问题,全面实施乡村振兴,既是推进城乡融合与乡村持续发展的重大战略,也是破解“三农”问题,决胜全面建成小康社会的必然要求。本文探讨了新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴的基础理论,剖析了乡村发展面临的主要问题,提出了问题导向的中国城乡融合与乡村振兴科学途径及研究前沿领域。结果表明:① 城乡融合与乡村振兴的对象是一个乡村地域多体系统,包括城乡融合体、乡村综合体、村镇有机体、居业协同体,乡村振兴重在推进城乡融合系统优化重构,加快建设城乡基础网、乡村发展区、村镇空间场、乡村振兴极等所构成的多级目标体系。② 中国“三农”问题本质上是一个乡村地域系统可持续发展问题,当前乡村发展正面临主要农业生产要素高速非农化、农村社会主体过快老弱化、村庄建设用地日益空废化、农村水土环境严重污损化和乡村贫困片区深度贫困化等“五化”难题。③ 乡村是经济社会发展的重要基础,城乡融合与乡村振兴战略相辅相成,乡村振兴应致力于创建城乡融合体制机制,推进乡村极化发展,按照产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕的要求,构建乡村地域系统转型—重构—创新发展综合体系。④ 乡村振兴地理学研究应着眼于乡村地域系统的复杂性、综合性、动态性,探究以根治“乡村病”为导向的新型村镇建设方案、模式和科学途径,为实现新时代中国乡村振兴战略提供理论参考。
Revitalize the world's countryside
DOI:10.1038/548275a URL [本文引用: 1]
Land consolidation and rural vitalization
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201810002
[本文引用: 1]
The core objective of rural vitalization is to systemically establish a coupling pattern of various rural development elements including population, land and industry. As one of the prerequisites, land resources is required to be optimally allocated via land consolidation. Consequently, land consolidation contributes greatly in population agglomeration, industry development and resources support under the context of combating rural decline. In light of these facts, this paper conducts an elementary analysis on the connotation of land consolidation and rural vitalization in the new era, as well as their relationships. Furthermore, the issues on the alternative paths for achieving rural vitalization via land consolidation in different regions were also discussed. Main conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) It is manifested that rural vitalization in the new era can be explained as a comprehensive process of tackling the loss and decline of rural development elements through political, economic and cultural means. Most importantly, vitalizing the interior motivation and absorbing the external power are essential for the efficient reconfiguration and utilization of rural population, land and industry, thus achieving the goals of arousing rural vitality, optimizing elements structure, enhancing territorial function and restructuring rural morphology. (2) From the perspective of rural vitalization, land consolidation, which adheres to the path of connotative development, should not only target at stimulating the key elements of rural development, but also place emphasis on the coordination of material space and spirit core, so as to realize the co-prosperity of the urban and the rural areas. (3) Regional natural indigenous factors and the corresponding phases of socio-economic development should be both taken into account in the process of implementing rural land consolidation. Following the principle of adjusting measures to local conditions, appropriate paths or modes are supposed to be chosen in different regions constrained by the territorial development pattern. Finally, focusing on a series of problems and new concepts, which is aimed at achieving urban-rural integration development and boosting socio-economic growth in rural areas, we propose further discussions.
论土地整治与乡村振兴
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201810002
[本文引用: 1]
乡村振兴的核心目的是系统构建人口、土地、产业等多种发展要素的耦合格局。土地整治在乡村振兴过程中肩负着为人口集聚、产业发展提供资源支撑的基础性作用。本文基于影响乡村发展的关键要素阐释了新时代乡村振兴和土地整治的内涵及其互馈关系,剖析了乡村振兴背景下土地整治的区域实施路径。最后,就未来乡村振兴视角下土地整治的方向进行了展望与讨论。结论如下:① 乡村振兴的内涵在于为应对乡村内部要素的流失与衰退,通过经济、政治及文化建设等手段激发内部动力和吸纳外部资源来重新组合、优化配置和高效利用乡村人口、土地和产业等发展要素,从而优化要素结构、提升地域功能、重塑乡村形态,实现乡村地域经济、社会及生态的全面复兴和城乡融合发展的新格局;② 乡村振兴视角下土地整治要激活乡村人口、土地和产业等关键发展要素,统筹物质空间振兴与精神内核提升;③ 开展农村土地整治要与区域自然本底条件和社会经济发展阶段相适应,按照分区统筹、分类施策的原则在国土空间开发格局的框架下因地制宜地采取相应的模式与路径;④ 未来有必要重塑土地整治的价值取向,在统一空间规划体系下统筹土地整治规划与乡村振兴规划,大力发展土地整治与多功能农业相结合的新模式。
Research on the coupling mechanism and coordinated development of rural revitalization-rural tourism system: A case study on Fenghuang county in Hunan
DOI:10.11821/dlyj020181165
[本文引用: 1]
The strategy of rural revitalization proposed at the 19th CPC National Congress is an inevitable choice to adapt to the changes of major social contradictions in China. The development of rural tourism is an important path to realize this great strategy. Through the dimensional deconstruction and dynamic mechanism analysis of the rural revitalization and rural tourism system, this paper analyzes the relationship between the two and the mechanism of action, and defines the coupling system of rural revitalization and rural tourism. Taking Fenghuang County, western Hunan Province as a case study, we constructed the evaluation index systems of rural revitalization and rural tourism. According to the panel data from 2001 to 2017, the comprehensive evaluation index, coordination degree and coordination development degree were calculated respectively. On this basis, the coupling process of rural revitalization and rural tourism system in Fenghuang County is divided into three stages, and the characteristics of the three stages are analyzed. The evolution process of the coupling system between rural revitalization and rural tourism is analyzed according to the evolution speed function and the "scissors difference", which reflects the changing trend of the two. The research shows that the interaction and interaction in the evolution process of rural revitalization and rural tourism system can be summarized as the coupling development process of pressure-embedding, adjustment and coordination, and the coupling evolution process reflects the cause-and-effect driving mechanism of cause-result-countermeasures. On this basis, the paper summarizes the realization path of rural revitalization and rural tourism, and puts forward that the design of policy system should be based on the evolution law and mechanism of rural revitalization and rural tourism system, and guide the coordinated development of the system by means of combining macro regulation and market regulation.
乡村振兴—乡村旅游系统耦合机制与协调发展研究: 以湖南凤凰县为例
DOI:10.11821/dlyj020181165
[本文引用: 1]
发展乡村旅游是实现乡村振兴这一伟大战略的重要路径选择。通过乡村振兴与乡村旅游体系维度解构及动力机制分析,解析了二者的相互关系及作用机制。以湘西凤凰县作为研究案例地,分别构建了乡村振兴评价指标体系和乡村旅游评价指标体系。根据2001—2017年面板数据,分别计算了其综合评价指数、协调度、协调发展度,依此将凤凰县乡村振兴-乡村旅游系统耦合过程划分为三个阶段,并分析了三个阶段的特征。根据演化速度函数及反映了二者变化趋势的差异的剪刀差,解析了乡村振兴-乡村旅游耦合系统的演化过程。通过案例研究,解释了乡村振兴-乡村旅游系统作用机制与演化规律,旨在为乡村振兴之乡村旅游路径选择提供政策参考。
How rural broadband popularization affects rural high-quality development: Theoretical mechanism and empirical identification
农村宽带普及如何影响乡村高质量发展: 理论机制与经验辨识
empirical analysis and optimization path of the coupling of digital economy and rural revitalization
数字经济与乡村振兴耦合的理论构建、实证分析及优化路径
Rural living environment improvement and rural revitalization
DOI:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220107
[本文引用: 1]
Since the 21st century, China's rural social and economic development and infrastructure construction have attained remarkable achievements, but the imbalance between urban and rural development and inadequate rural development are still prominent. In particular, the living environment closely related to rural life is still the short board of rural development. At the beginning of 2018, the central government issued the three-year action plan for rural living environment improvement (RLEI) to focus on improving the rural living environment, building a beautiful and livable village, and pursuing the Rural Revitalization Strategy. This paper analyzes the concept and connotation of RLEI, explains the mechanism of RLEI promoting rural revitalization, combs the mode and mechanism, effect and evaluation of RLEI, and discusses the key areas of strengthening the research of RLEI. The science of rural living environment has developed rapidly in the past 10 years, and has made remarkable progress in basic theory, evolution mechanism, quality evaluation, regulation and control strategy, especially in the research of basic theory, evolution mechanism and quality evaluation. However, there are still obvious deficiencies in the guidance and support of the current research for practice, and there are still some misunderstandings in the practice of local specific RLEI. Facing the strategic needs of rural revitalization, we need to form "eight consensus" in the understanding and practice of RLEI in the new era. In terms of research, we should strengthen the intersection and integration of rural geography and engineering technology science, urban and rural planning science, management science, sociology, etc., and strive to form a systematic research system integrating theoretical research, technological development, mechanism analysis, effectiveness evaluation, and model optimization, which can better support the improvement of rural living environment and realize the function and value enhancement of rural areas, and then effectively contribute to the Rural Revitalization Strategy.
论农村人居环境整治与乡村振兴
DOI:10.31497/zrzyxb.20220107
[本文引用: 1]
21世纪以来,中国乡村社会经济发展与基础设施建设取得明显成效,但城乡发展不平衡、乡村发展不充分的问题仍较突出。特别是与乡村生活密切相关的人居环境仍为乡村发展的短板。2018年初,国家出台了《农村人居环境整治三年行动方案》,以着力改善农村人居环境,建设美丽宜居乡村,助力乡村振兴战略。本文解析了农村人居环境及其整治的概念与内涵,阐释了农村人居环境整治与乡村振兴的相互作用机理,剖析了农村人居环境整治的运行模式,梳理了整治成效的评价方法与结果,并展望了农村人居环境整治研究的重点领域。农村人居环境科学在过去十余年取得了快速发展,在基本理论、演化机理、质量评价、调控策略等方面有明显进展。但是,当前研究对于实践的指导性和支撑性仍存在明显不足,地方具体整治工作仍存在一些认识上或实践上的误区。面向乡村振兴战略需求,新时期的农村人居环境整治在认识和实践方面要形成“八项共识”。在研究层面,应强化乡村地理学与工程技术科学、城乡规划学、管理学、社会学等的交叉与融合,着力形成集理论研究、技术研发、机制剖析、成效评估、模式优化等于一体的系统性研究体系,可更好地支撑农村人居环境整治,实现乡村地域功能显化和价值提升,进而有效助力乡村振兴。
Research on the financial support for the rural revitalization strategy
乡村振兴战略的金融支撑研究
Entrepreneurship and development finance: Keys to rural revitalization
How rural financial credit affects family farm operating performance: An empirical investigation
DOI:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.03.003 URL [本文引用: 2]
Research on the improvement path of transformation efficiency of scientific and technological achievements of agricultural enterprises: Method based on SSBM-network DEA and Light GBM.
我国涉农企业科技成果转化效率提升路径研究: 基于SSBM-网络DEA与Light GBM方法
Rural tourism development and financing in Romani: A supply-side analysis
The role of financial perspective of entrepreneurship and rural development for the purpose of strengthening Serbian economy
DOI:10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.113 URL [本文引用: 1]
Financial development and poverty reduction in developing countries: New evidence from banks and microfinance institutions
DOI:10.1016/j.rdf.2016.06.002 URL [本文引用: 2]
Micro finance and poverty reduction in India (A comparative study with Asian countries)
Elite capture of rural credit market in China: Stratified comparison between poor and non-poor counties
中国农贷的“精英俘获”机制: 贫困县与非贫困县的分层比较
Financial logic in rural governance: From the perspective of financial practice
乡村治理中的金融路径再认知
Research on rural finance development, agricultural science and technology progress and urban-rural economic integration
农村金融发展、农业科技进步与城乡经济融合研究
Mechanism and empirical study of financial support for high-quality integrated development of urban and rural areas
金融支持城乡高质量融合发展的机制与实证研究
The influence mechanism and empirical study of rural financial development on urban-rural income gap
农村金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响机理与实证研究
The development of rural finance and anti-poverty performance in China: Empirical evidences from 2003 to 2010
我国农村金融发展与反贫困绩效: 基于2003—2010 年的经验证据
Does rural financial development promote rural economic growth?
农村金融发展促进农村经济增长了吗?
An empirical study on the impact of financial development on rural revitalization and development
金融发展对乡村振兴发展影响的实证研究
Financial development and poverty reduction: Panel data analysis of South Asian countries
DOI:10.1108/IJSE-04-2014-0069
URL
[本文引用: 1]
– The purpose of this paper is to examine the contribution of financial development to poverty reduction in 11 South Asian developing countries using panel data set over the time period 1990-2012.
The impact of digital finance on household consumption: Evidence from China
DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.027 URL [本文引用: 1]
Agricultural high-quality development: Digital empowerment and implementation path
农业高质量发展:数字赋能与实现路径
Is financial development narrowing the urban-rural income gap? A cross‐regional study of China
DOI:10.1111/pirs.12428
[本文引用: 1]
This paper investigates the causal relationship between financial development and the urban-rural income gap in China. Using a bootstrap Granger panel causality analysis, the result indicates that financial development influences urban-rural income gap mainly in Eastern China. The high level of financial development in this region enables rural areas to increase its income. Our results also confirm the existence of the financial Kuznets curve in Eastern China where urban-rural income gap would be first increased and afterwards decreased by financial development. The financial development itself is not dependent on urban-rural income gap as it largely depends on government policies and economic growth.
Evaluation of eco-city under the concept of high-quality development: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration
DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.08.004
[本文引用: 1]
Eco-city is an essential form of sustainable urban development and represents the tendency of modern cities. The evaluation of eco-city provides the fundamental basis for the planning, construction and management of eco-city. With the rapid development of social and economic, the connotation and evaluation index system of eco-city also need to update with the times. Currently, China's economy has shifted from a rapid growth stage to a high-quality development stage. Urban is an essential platform of regional economic development, it will also enter the stage of high-quality development. The eco-city is highly compatible with the concept of high-quality development, it is necessary to integrate the high-quality development ideology in the eco-city evaluation, which is in line with the current urban transformation and development requirements of China. Therefore, on the basis of combing the evolution and connotation development of eco-city, we set up an eco-city evaluation system guided by the concept of high-quality development, and then taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) as an example to carry out the ecological level evaluation study of urban. Thus, the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations of urban ecological level was evaluated and the main obstacle factors was revealed. Based on various statistical data of YRDUA in 2005, 2010 and 2015, 27 indicators for evaluating eco-city that reflects the requirements for high quality development ideology were constructed from three aspects, they are economic development, ecological environment protection and social civilization progress. The entropy-TOPSIS model then analyzed the ecological level of cities, and the major obstacle factors was measured through obstacle degree model. The results showed that: The ecological level of the YRDUA present a steady improvement trend, the urban ecological level spatial pattern of the YRDUA shows a "core-periphery" structure, and it experienced the evolution process of double-high value center in 2005, single-high value center in 2010 and multiple-high value center in 2015. The ecological level of Shanghai municipality, provincial capital cities and other economically-strong cities like Suzhou and Wuxi are significantly better than other cities. There is a significant correlation between ecological level and city hierarchical, which means the urban ecological level is directly proportional to the population scale. The higher the urban hierarchy, the more advantageous the urban construction has, thus the higher the ecological level is. And the ecological level gap of the different urban hierarchy has gradually expanded during the study period. From the perspective of the 3 subsystems, economic development, ecological environment protection and social civilization progress, each city presents different advantages and disadvantages regarding different indicators. Moreover, the difference of ecology level regarding the economy and society are significant than the ecological environment. The obstacle factors of the ecological level of the YRDUA are relatively stable. For most cities, economic development, infrastructure, and public service factors are the primary constraints, especially in cities with relatively backward economic development, while a few economically developed cities have significant obstacles to environmental foundation and social civilization progress. In the future, the differentiated policies deserve much more attention, urban ecological level should promote to higher quality according to local conditions especially its significant constraints.
高质量发展下的生态城市评价: 以长江三角洲城市群为例
DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.08.004
[本文引用: 1]
以长江三角洲城市群为案例区,运用熵值-TOPSIS模型评价城市生态化水平的变化及差异,运用障碍度模型探究影响城市生态化水平的主要障碍因子。结果表明:长三角城市群生态化水平在稳步提升,城市间生态化水平差异显著并呈扩大趋势;长三角城市群生态化水平在空间上呈现“中心-外围”结构,城市生态化水平与城市规模等级成正比,直辖市、省会城市和经济强市生态化水平要显著优于其他城市;城市在经济、生态环境和社会3个层面指标上的评价得分具有不平衡性,各城市优劣势有所差异,并且经济和社会层面的生态化水平差异大于生态环境层面的差异;对大多数城市而言,经济层面及基础设施、公共服务要素是主要障碍因子。未来生态城市建设应立足城市自身发展状况,因地制宜地提升城市生态化水平,建设高质量生态城市。
High-quality development of the Yellow River Basin from a perspective of economic geography: Man-land and spatial coordination
DOI:10.2307/142170 URL [本文引用: 1]
黄河流域高质量发展: 人地协调与空间协调
Basic rules and key paths for high-quality development of the new urbanization in China
DOI:10.11821/dlyj020180445
[本文引用: 1]
The high-quality development of the new urbanization in China is focused on man-earth harmony, people-oriented principle, low-carbon, ecology, innovation, wisdom and safety. It is an organic unity of high quality citizenization, infrastructure, living environment, urban construction, public service and urban management. Promoting the new urbanization is an important way for China to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects and achieve modernization basically, and it is an important way to realize the strategy of rural revitalization. To promote the development of China's new urbanization, we need to follow the four stage rule and gradual development rule. To realize the strategy transformation of new urbanization, it is necessary to make more changes: from the quantitative to the quality-oriented, from the "one step" to "step by step" in realizing our goals, from radical to gradual, from inducing "negative effect" to releasing the "positive energy", from passive to active, from "land-oriented" to "people-oriented". The current situation and background conditions of China's urbanization are very different from one place to another. Thus, we should avoid "one-size-fits-all" in promoting the development of new urbanization. Adhering to the principle of adapting local conditions and appropriate conditions, the paper divides the new urbanization area into five major types, including urban agglomeration region (I), major grain-producing region (II), farming, forestry, and animal husbandry region (III), linked poverty alleviation region (IV), and ethnic autonomous region (V), which are further divided into 47 sub-regions. The urbanization development mode between different regions and different subregions cannot be copied from each other, and we need to implement some diversified and differentiated models. According to the main functions of different types of urbanization regions, the different development policies of urbanization should be formulated, and development goals and priorities should be put forward according to local conditions, and the classification guidance should be proposed according to the appropriate conditions. The key paths to promote the high-quality development of China's new urbanization include: enhance the overall synergy of high-quality development and improve the quality of urban agglomeration development; promote the integrated development of industrial and urban areas and the equalization of basic urban public services, and improve the quality of urban development; propel integrated development between urban and rural areas and accelerate the revitalization of rural areas; highlight the main functions of urbanization quality development in different types of areas in accordance with local conditions; innovate institutional mechanisms and ensure that high-quality development is carried out throughout the trial process of new urbanization; standardize small towns with distinctive features and lay a solid foundation for the high-quality development of new urbanization; strengthen the analysis and regulation of the capacity of resources and environment for the high-quality development of new urbanization.
中国新型城镇化高质量发展的规律性与重点方向
DOI:10.11821/dlyj020180445
[本文引用: 1]
中国新型城镇化高质量发展是一种人地和谐、高效低碳、生态环保、节约创新、智慧平安的质量提升型城镇化,是高质量的城市建设、高质量的基础设施、高质量的公共服务、高质量的人居环境、高质量的城市管理和高质量的市民化的有机统一。高质量推进新型城镇化发展需要遵循城镇化发展的四阶段性规律和渐进式规律,实现新型城镇化由数量型向质量型、由“一步到位”向“分步到位”、由激进式向渐进式、由诱发“负效应”向释放“正能量”、由被动性向主动型、由“地为本”向“人为本”的战略转型。考虑到中国新型城镇化发展的地域差异显著,新型城镇化高质量发展客观上要因地制宜、因类指导,可将全国新型城镇化高质量发展区域划分为城市群地区(Ⅰ)、粮食主产区(Ⅱ)、农林牧地区(Ⅲ)、连片扶贫区(Ⅳ)、民族自治区(Ⅴ)共5大高质量发展类型区和47个亚区。未来推进中国新型城镇化高质量发展的重点路径包括:增强新型城镇化高质量发展的整体协同性,提高城市群发展质量;推动产城深度融合发展,加快实现基本公共服务均等化,提升城市发展品质与质量;推动城乡深度融合发展,在新型城镇化高质量发展中实现乡村振兴;突出因地制宜,明确不同类型地区城镇化高质量发展的主体功能;创新体制机制,全过程推进城镇化高质量发展;量力而行,以特取胜,规范建设特色小镇,夯实新型城镇化高质量发展的基石;把新型城镇化高质量发展与区域资源环境承载力及高质量保护有机结合起来。
Basic conditions and core strategies of high- quality development in the Yellow River Basin
DOI:10.18402/resci.2020.03.01
[本文引用: 1]
The Yellow River Basin as a whole is in the mid- to late stage of industrial transformation and the rapid development stage of the regional economy. It is in general in the “siphon effect” stage where the agglomeration function is stronger than the diffusion effect, and in the period of intense competition in intraregional development. Medium/high-speed economic growth of high-quality is a prerequisite for the modernization and sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin. Based on a general analysis of the connotation and change of theories of high-quality development in the basin (region), this article explores the basic conditions and core strategies of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. The basic conditions of high-quality development are the local diversity and vulnerability of agricultural development, the loose nature of the economic links in the river basin, constraints from the stage of economic development and its internal differences, and lack of momentum of external investment and industrial transfer, among others. These particularities determine that the high-quality development of the river basin must manifest itself in a long-term, diverse, competitive, cooperative, and regional orientation. Therefore, the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin needs to explore a core strategy of “overtaking by curves”: (1) With the development of smart society and globalization, the region should seek high-quality growth, that is, continue to explore new industrialization models in the region that are suitable for national needs and local characteristics, and build localized industrial clusters/chain to enhance comprehensive competitiveness; (2) Explore new models of synergy under the premise of homogeneity, plan river basin coordination and improve coordination mechanisms, and seek a new urbanization model of localization, including localized population urbanization strategy and urban-rural coordination model, especially the continued migration of rural population to river valleys/basins, plains, and towns based on land transfer. Improve labor productivity, paying attention to water resources and infrastructure construction, and so on; (3) Implement the “center breakthrough” system, seek the spatial reconstruction of the drainage basin led by the centers, promote the healthy development of central cities and urban agglomerations, and promote high-quality development. In general, the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin is a long-term exploration process of at least 20-30 years.
黄河流域高质量发展的基本条件与核心策略
DOI:10.18402/resci.2020.03.01
[本文引用: 1]
黄河流域整体处于工业化中期到后期的转型发展和区域经济的起飞发展阶段,大体处于集聚功能大于扩散效应的“虹吸效应”阶段和区内发展的激烈竞争时期。高质量的中/高速经济增长是黄河流域现代化进程和可持续发展的前提。在大致梳理流域(区域)高质量发展的内涵及其理论演变的基础上,本文探讨了黄河流域高质量发展的基本条件及其核心策略。域内高质量发展的基本条件表现为农业发展的多样性和脆弱性,流域经济联系的松散性,经济发展阶段性及其内部差异性的约束,外部投资和产业转移等动力不足的约束等。这决定了流域高质量发展必表现为长期性、多样性、竞争性、协同性甚至区域化的倾向。因此,黄河流域高质量发展需探索“弯道超车”的核心策略:①在智能社会和全球化浪潮中,谋高质量增长,即持续探寻域内适合国家需求和地方特色的新型产业转型发展模式,建构适合各地方的特色化产业集群/产业链,提升综合竞争力;②探寻同质前提下的协同新模式,谋划流域协同和寻求特色化的新型城镇化模式,包括适合各地的人口城镇化策略和城乡统筹模式,尤其是基于土地流转的乡村人口向河谷/川地/盆地、平原、城镇的持续迁移路径,提高劳动生产率,关注水资源和基础设施建设等问题;③实施“中心突破”的体制,寻求中心带动的流域空间重构,推动中心城市和城镇群的健康发展,促进高质量发展。黄河流域高质量发展是一个至少20~30年的长期探索过程。
Theoretical interpretation and practical orientation of China's economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development in new era
新时代中国经济从高速增长转向高质量发展: 理论阐释与实践取向
Comprehensive evaluation and impact mechanism of high-quality development of China's resource-based cities
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202110011
[本文引用: 1]
Promoting the transformation, upgrading, and high-quality development of resource-based cities is a key point to achieve high-quality development in China. The comprehensive evaluation of the high-quality development of resource-based cities and the analysis of its influence mechanism can not only enrich the relevant theoretical research, but also have important practical significance. Based on Marxist political economy, this paper reviews and analyzes the theoretical framework of high-quality development in the new era, and systematically constructs the index system of high-quality development of resource-based cities. On this basis, the high-quality development level of 117 resource-based cities is comprehensively estimated, and its influence mechanism is analyzed. The results show the following. (1) From 2005 to 2017, the high-quality development level of resource-based cities continued to grow, showing a significant spatial distribution pattern of "relatively high in the east, but relatively low in the west and northeast". (2) The cities with higher and lower high-quality development levels have obvious regional agglomeration characteristics, but the local imbalance of high-quality development level intensifies, and the phenomenon of spatial polarization continues to expand. (3) The high-quality development level of cities in different growth stages is quite different. Among them, the high-quality development level of regenerative cities is the highest, while that of declining cities is the lowest. (4) The distance between resource-based cities and provincial capital cities or municipalities directly under the central government, natural factors (such as location, and altitude of cities), and the open time of cities have an important impact on the high-quality development level of resource-based cities.
中国资源型城市高质量发展的综合评估及影响机理
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202110011
[本文引用: 1]
促进资源型城市转型升级与高质量发展,是中国全面实现高质量发展的难点和重点。对资源型城市高质量发展水平进行综合评估并分析其影响机理既能丰富相关理论研究,也具有重要的实践意义。基于马克思主义政治经济学,梳理和分析了新时代高质量发展的理论框架,系统构建了资源型城市高质量发展的指标体系,在此基础上综合测算了中国117个资源型城市的高质量发展水平,并深入分析了其影响机理。结果表明:① 2005—2017年资源型城市高质量发展水平持续增长,整体呈现显著的“东部相对较高、西部相对较低”的分布格局。② 高质量发展水平较高和较低的城市具有明显的区域集聚特征,但高质量发展水平局部不平衡性加剧,空间极化现象持续扩大。③ 不同成长阶段的城市高质量发展水平存在较大差别,其中,再生型城市高质量发展水平最高,而衰退型城市高质量发展水平最低。④ 资源型城市与省会城市或直辖市的距离、区位和海拔、城市的开放时间等均对资源型城市高质量发展水平有重要影响。
Study of evaluating high-quality economic development in Chinese regions
中国区域经济高质量发展评价指标体系及测度研究
Air pollution,government regulations and high-quality economic development
雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展
Digital economy, entrepreneurship, and high-quality economic development:Empirical evidence from urban China
数字经济、创业活跃度与高质量发展: 来自中国城市的经验证据
Themes evolution of rural revitalization and its research prospect in China from 1949 to 2019
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.09.001
[本文引用: 1]
In this article, we reviewed the process of rural development from 1949 to 2019. Implementing the rural revitalization strategy is essential for the declared prioritization of agricultural and rural development, achieving the overarching goal of agricultural and rural modernization, and establishing and improving the mechanism and policy framework of integrated urban and rural development. Rural development in China can be divided into five stages. The first stage involved urban-rural dual structure development with people's cooperatives as the primary agents. The second comprised a household contract responsibility system, and is characterized by a small-scale peasant economy. The third involved coordinating urban and rural development with a "city re-feeding rural areas" policy. The fourth was urban-rural integrated development oriented by rural reconstruction. Finally, the fifth stage is rural revitalization guided by balanced urban and rural development. This study also described and analyzed the evolution process of six revitalization themes since 1949, as well as tracing the journey of the deepening research into the themes. The six themes are: differentiation of the agents, industrial evolution, environmental improvement, cultural reconstruction, rural governance, and rural planning. Finally, this study focused on the recent rural revitalization to address strategic needs and five upcoming areas of research. These research areas include interdisciplinary integrated research of theory and practice, urban-rural integration, integrated development of rural industry and improvement of quality and efficiency, integrated development of rural production, living, and ecological space, and cross-regional rural cooperation and linkage. Future research trends were also discussed.
1949—2019年中国乡村振兴主题演化过程与研究展望
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.09.001
[本文引用: 1]
实施乡村振兴战略是坚持农业农村优先发展、实现农业农村现代化总体目标、建立健全城乡融合发展体制机制和政策体系的重要途径。论文系统回顾了乡村发展的历程,将1949年以来中国乡村发展分为:人民公社为主体的城乡二元结构阶段、小农经济为主体的家庭联产承包责任制阶段、城市反哺农村的城乡统筹发展阶段、城乡融合发展与乡村振兴阶段4个发展时段。从时间序列深入刻画了乡村振兴的主体分化、产业演变、环境整治、文化重构、乡村治理5个振兴主题及乡村规划的演化过程与研究趋势。最后,着眼于新时代乡村振兴战略需求与研究热点,从学科交叉融合的理论与实践研究、城乡一体化与城乡融合发展研究、乡村产业融合发展与提质增效研究、乡村“三生”空间融合发展研究、乡村跨区域协作与联动研究5个方面对乡村振兴未来研究趋势展开了讨论。
Discussion on rural sustainability and rural sustainability science
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202004006
[本文引用: 2]
In the face of global environmental challenges, sustainable development has received much attention worldwide, and sustainability science has emerged in the 21st century as a globally well-recognized new area of science. Rural sustainability science, as an important part of sustainability science, is a use-inspired science aimed at understanding and improving the dynamic relationship between people and the rural environment from a transdisciplinary and multiscale perspective. In tandem with urban sustainability science, it provides much needed scientific support for dealing with rural decline and promoting rural sustainable development. In this paper, we first discuss the concepts of sustainability, rural sustainability, and rural sustainability science, and then propose a transdisciplinary integrated framework of rural sustainability science that focuses on agricultural sustainability, community sustainability, and rural human well-being. China is a nation with deep rural roots, complex problems involving interactions among agriculture, farmers, and villages, and huge urban-rural socioeconomic gaps. Since the reform and opening-up in 1978, China's rural areas have developed rapidly, but they still face numerous tough challenges. Rural revitalization strategies are needed for promoting the rural transition toward sustainability, but the necessary scientific basis and appropriate guidelines for formulating such strategies are still lacking. We argue that rural sustainability science can provide theoretical, technical, and decision-making support for the implementation of rural revitalization strategies. Our analysis of the current status of China's rural sustainable development indicates that the transition to sustainability is urgently needed, and so is the science that guides the transition. To address these problems, we call for transdisciplinary research that couples rural society and its environment, focusing on nine core issues in line with the needs of China's rural development and aiming to transfer knowledge of rural sustainability into local adaptive actions.
论乡村可持续性与乡村可持续性科学
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202004006
[本文引用: 2]
面对全球环境挑战,可持续发展备受关注,成为21世纪举世瞩目的新兴领域。乡村可持续性科学作为可持续性科学的重要组成部分,是一门以跨学科思维、多尺度视角来理解和改善乡村人地关系的、以应用为导向的整合型学科。与城市可持续性科学相互对应并相互联系,乡村可持续性科学是应对乡村衰退、促进乡村可持续发展所急需的科学支撑。本文在讨论可持续性、乡村可持续性与乡村可持续性科学概念基础上,以农业可持续性、社区可持续性与农民福祉为主要内容,构建了一个多学科综合的乡村可持续性科学研究框架。中国是一个农业大国,城乡差距明显,“三农”问题复杂,1978年改革开放以来,乡村发展迅速,但也面临艰巨挑战。乡村振兴战略的实施是推动中国乡村向可持续发展转型的有效途径,但其理论与实践体系尚不完善。具有中国特色的乡村可持续性科学的发展,可以为乡村振兴战略实施提供理论、技术与决策支撑。为此,本文对中国乡村可持续发展现状进行了分析,并基于文献分析探讨了中国乡村可持续研究的不足。结论显示,中国乡村迫切需要向可持续发展转型,但乡村可持续性科学基础薄弱,需借鉴国际经验,立足本国国情,强化跨学科研究与人地系统耦合研究,聚焦9个适应中国当前乡村发展需求的核心议题,并因地制宜地将乡村可持续性研究成果转化为指导乡村振兴发展的行动策略。
The process of rural development and paths for rural revitalization in China
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202106007
[本文引用: 3]
China is a large agricultural country, and issues concerning agriculture, rural areas and farmers are closely related to national economic and social development. To achieve the "Two Centenary Goals", rural revitalization strategy has become the choice to resolve unbalanced urban-rural development and inadequate rural development in China. Rural development is a comprehensive process of cycle accumulation and dynamic evolution of rural regional system. Thus, it is of great significance to systematically analyze the process and regional pattern of rural development to scientifically promote the implementation of rural revitalization strategy in the new era. Based on the theory of human-earth areal system and human-earth system science, this study examines the process and features of rural development in China from 1978 to 2050, discusses the internal relationship between rural transformation and rural revitalization, reveals the spatial pattern of the level of county rural revitalization in 2017, and finally puts forward the key problems and countermeasures for rural revitalization in the new era. Results show that the evolution of China's rural development in the period of 1978-2050 can be divided into three stages, i.e. solving the problem of food and clothing (1978-2005), building a well-off society (2005-2020) and realizing prosperity (2020-2050). In general, it is a dynamic and continuous process from low-level and basic-type to high-quality and innovation-type. Rural revitalization is a special stage of rural transformation, and a strategic choice to solve the prominent problem in rural development when it has evolved to a certain stage, thus boosting rural development to a higher stage. In 2017, when rural revitalization strategy was initiated, the level of rural revitalization in 57.3% of the counties in China was between 0.40 and 0.50, and there was an obvious gradient differentiation from the east to the west, with significant clustering characteristics and positive correlation. Specifically, the counties featured by "high-high (H-H)" clustering were mainly distributed in the third step of the terrain and the middle of Sichuan Basin; while the counties featured by "low-low (L-L)" clustering were concentrated in western China except Sichuan Basin, the eastern part of Inner Mongolia and the north of Tianshan Mountains. Due to the regionalism, stage and the difference in constraints of rural development, the focuses of rural revitalization in the new era lie in scientifically identifying the targeting areas of rural revitalization, comprehensively judging the trends of rural development, and systematically diagnosing the dominant constraints of different types of rural areas, so as to take targeted measures to make up for the shortcomings of the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. Besides, it is necessary to fully understand the interactions between urban and rural areas, thus promoting urban-rural integrated development.
中国乡村发展进程与乡村振兴路径
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202106007
[本文引用: 3]
乡村发展是乡村地域系统循环累积与动态演化的结果,全面梳理乡村发展历史脉络与地域分异格局,对于科学推动新时代乡村振兴战略落实具有重要意义。基于人地关系地域系统理论和人地系统科学认知,本文解析了1978—2050年中国乡村发展演化进程,探讨了乡村转型发展与乡村振兴的内在逻辑,揭示了中国县域乡村振兴水平的空间格局,进而提出了新时代乡村振兴的关键问题及其路径对策。研究表明:① 中国1978—2050年的乡村发展可划分为解决温饱、小康建设和实现富裕三个主要阶段,是一个由低水平、基础型向高质量、创新型不断发展的过程;② 乡村振兴本质上是乡村转型发展的一个特殊阶段,是乡村发展演化到一定阶段后,为解决其面临的突出问题以向更高层次迈进的战略选择;③ 2017年中国57.3%的县域乡村振兴综合水平介于0.40~0.50之间,在空间上呈现出明显的东中西地域分异,并具有显著的聚集特征和正相关性;④ 新时代乡村振兴战略的落实重在科学识别乡村振兴的瞄准区域,综合研判乡村发展演化的趋势,系统诊断乡村地域类型的主导制约因素,全面认知城乡耦合互动的逻辑关系,进而采取针对性措施推进农业农村现代化。
What does the public want from agriculture and the countryside? A review of evidence and methods
DOI:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2003.08.004 URL [本文引用: 2]
Diversified agriculture and rural development in China based on multifunction theory: Beyond modernization paradigm
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201502007
[本文引用: 2]
There is a big gap between general rural modernization paradigm and huge empirical rural geography studies. This gap results in impotent development strategies on regionally differentiated countryside. Based on multifunctional agriculture theory and multifunctional rural theory which emerged in Western World as a new paradigm, this paper discusses the multiple objectives, differentiated pathways and policies of agriculture and rural development in China. Firstly, this paper reflects the problems and challenges caused by modernization paradigm in rural China on economic, social, and environmental aspects, as well as that of western developed countries. It can be concluded that conventional agricultural and rural modernization is developed largely at the expense of rural environment, social fabric and economic viabilities. Obviously, "modernization development paradigm" alone is not enough for healthy agricultural and rural development in such booming economy as China. A better paradigm should be developed which takes economic development, social justice and environmental sustainability into account at the same time. After a brief review of multifunctional agriculture theory and multifunctional rural theory overseas, the multiple objectives of agriculture and rural development in China are put forward. These multiple objectives, however, should not and could not be a burden on rural space indiscriminatingly due to the enormous differentiation of natural and socio-economic conditions. Thus, the final but main part of this paper envisions the differentiated pathways and policy portfolios of agricultural and rural development in China from the perspective of territorial division.
基于多功能理论的中国乡村发展多元化探讨: 超越“现代化”发展范式
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201502007
[本文引用: 2]
传统的乡村现代化发展范式和地理学关于乡村的区域差异研究之间存在缝隙,不足以为快速演化分异的乡村地域发展提供直接理论支撑。本文引入西方近20年来逐渐兴起的多功能农业与多功能乡村理论,从新的视角观察思考中国乡村多元化发展的目标、路径及对策。首先从经济、社会和环境三个方面反思中国乡村现代化的基本历程与得失,以及西方国家乡村现代化产生的问题,指出传统的农业农村现代化发展在很大程度是以牺牲乡村环境和乡村社会机理脆弱化为代价的,也造成了乡村经济对外部支持的过度依赖,仅仅强调“现代化”发展范式显然是不够的;然后简要介绍了国外多功能农业与多功能乡村理论;在此基础上,从功能角度提出中国农业农村发展的多元目标,推演探讨农业农村发展的区域差异化路径及对策。
Impulses towards a multifunctional transition in rural Australia: Gaps in the research agenda
DOI:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2005.08.006 URL [本文引用: 1]
The practical basis, theoretical logic and practical path of financial assistance to rural revitalization: Based on the perspective of new development pattern
金融助力乡村振兴的现实基础、理论逻辑与实践路径: 基于新发展格局视角
Technological choice, financial markets and economic development
DOI:10.1016/0014-2921(92)90056-3 URL [本文引用: 1]
Fiscal incentives, financial support for agriculture, and urban-rural inequality
Does the green credit policy reduce the carbon emission in tensity of heavily polluting industries? Evidence from China's industrial sectors
Environmental finance: Environmental compliance can be profitable
The income distribution effect and measure of rural financial inclusion in China
中国农村金融包容水平测度与收入分配效应
Inclusive finance: A basic theoretical framework
普惠金融: 一个基本理论框架
Why don't the poor save more? Evidence from health savings experiments
DOI:10.1257/aer.103.4.1138
URL
[本文引用: 1]
Using data from a field experiment in Kenya, we document that providing individuals with simple informal savings technologies can substantially increase investment in preventative health and reduce vulnerability to health shocks. Simply providing a safe place to keep money was sufficient to increase health savings by 66 percent. Adding an earmarking feature was only helpful when funds were put toward emergencies, or for individuals that are frequently taxed by friends and relatives. Group-based savings and credit schemes had very large effects. (JEL C93, D14, D91, I12, O12)
Influence of digital inclusive finance on rural consumption:Based on spatial econometric model
数字普惠金融对农村消费的影响研究: 基于空间计量模型
How does health life expectancy improve economic growth? An empirical study on transnational macro data
健康预期寿命提高如何促进经济增长? 基于跨国宏观数据的实证研究
Financing constraints and liquidity management behavior
融资约束与流动性管理行为
How to check the inter-group coefficient difference after grouping regression
如何检验分组回归后的组间系数差异
Economic integration and endogenous growth
DOI:10.2307/2937946 URL [本文引用: 1]
The impact of rural financial development on the contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress: An empirical study based on provincial dynamic panel data model
农村金融发展对农业科技进步贡献率的影响: 基于省级动态面板数据模型的实证研究
Mechanism of financial development influencing regional green development: Based on eco-efficiency and spatial econometrics
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201403012
[本文引用: 1]
China's economy has been developing rapidly at the cost of tremendous energy consumption and severe environmental pollution since the 1980s. The severe haze and fog often shrouding many cities in China since 2013 indicate that there is an urgent need to shift current developmental pattern to green development. As one of the cores of modern economy, financial development could play a more active role to promote the transition. Yet how to advance the transition remains unclear and arguable. And it needs to explore the ways that financial factors work before policy making. Aiming to examine the mechanisms that financial development influences green development, this paper measures the level of regional green development with eco-efficiency, and uses spatial Durbin model to research relative importance of the mechanisms and effect of spatial spillover with the data of 30 provinces in China. The main findings are obtained as follows. (1) Both financial development and eco-efficiency present agglomerating situation, the level of which in the coastal developed areas of southeast China is relatively high. And there are obvious spatial correlations among variables. (2) The effects of enterprise supervision and resource distribution are relatively important. The former has the most positive influence on local green development, yet its spatial spillover effect only works in the long term. The latter influences local green development significantly, yet its spatial spillover effect is not significant. (3) After the financial crisis, the effects of capital support and the supervision from long-term loan are strengthened than those before, yet the supervision from security market is weakened and has led to negative influence on the eco-efficiency. (4) The direct effects and spatial spillover effects of green finance are not significant, which implies that it is necessary to enhance the support of green finance for green industry and environmental protection. The policy meaning is that more emphasis should be put on the supervision of capital use instead of increasing investment. This paper also implies that the effect of green finance should be improved by providing more support on the green industry and environment investments.
金融发展影响区域绿色发展的机理: 基于生态效率和空间计量的研究
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201403012
[本文引用: 1]
近年来严重的雾霾在中国许多城市持续大面积出现,这敲响了提升区域发展绿色度的警钟。金融可以也应该在促进绿色发展中发挥重要作用。本文分析金融发展影响区域绿色发展的四个机理,利用生态效率反映区域绿色发展水平,运用空间杜宾模型和中国省域面板数据实证研究了各机理的相对重要性及其空间溢出效应。主要发现有:相对而言,企业监督效应和资本配置效应的作用更显著;前者对当地绿色发展的积极影响相对最大,但长期中才会对周边区域的绿色发展产生积极的空间溢出效应;后者对当地绿色发展具有显著影响,但空间溢出效应不显著;金融危机后资本支持效应和长期贷款的监督效应得到了加强,但证券市场的监督效应则反而具有负面影响;绿色金融效应及其空间溢出均不明显,暗示着有必要加强金融支持绿色产业和环境保护的力度。金融支持绿色发展的政策重点可能在于加强资金使用监督,而不仅是加大资金投入。
Green credit, renewable energy investment and green economy development: Empirical analysis based on 150 listed companies of China
DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.119 URL [本文引用: 1]
Estimation of China's regional ruralhuman capital and its space-time character
中国区域农村人力资本的估算及其时空特征
The evolution logic and future prospect of China's rural financial system after 40 years of reform and opening up
改革开放40周年中国农村金融制度的演进逻辑与未来展望
The internal mechanism and logical framework of green finance promoting rural revitalization
绿色金融助推乡村振兴的内在机理与逻辑框架
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