Using data from the national migration survey of 2018, the intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence have been categorized into three types, namely, short-term residence, long-term residence, and permanent residence. On this basis, GIS spatial analysis and hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) have been used to examine the determinants and the spatial variation of various categories of residence intentions in 290 prefecture- and provincial-level cities of China. The results show that those with short-term and long-term residence intentions account for 60% of the total number of migrants, suggesting that bi- and multi-locational livelihood strategies are still dominant among migrants in China. It was found that there is a strong contrast between the spatial patterns for short-term residence intentions and that of permanent residence intentions. Furthermore, the short-term residence intentions are relatively high in the eastern region of the country and relatively low in the northeastern region; in contrast, the permanent residence intentions exhibit a spatial pattern completely different from that of the short-term residence intentions, and the long-term residence intentions are the highest in the central and western regions. The HLM results show that the characteristics of both the destination and the migrants at the individual level affect different categories of residence intentions. It is found that the short-term and long-term residence intentions are relatively high, and the permanent residence intentions are relatively low in the eastern and central regions, and in areas with more developed economies and high average wage levels. Moreover, for male, inter-provincial migrating, agricultural hukou status, lower educational attainments, shorter migration duration, and lower average monthly household income, are the factors conducive to short-term and long-term residence intentions; for female, intra-provincial migrating, non-agricultural hukou status, higher educational attainments, longer migration duration, and higher average monthly household income, tend to promote permanent residence intentions.

基于2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据,根据流动人口愿意在流入地居留时间的长短将居留意愿划分为短期居留意愿、长期居留意愿、永久居留意愿3种类型,运用空间分析技术和分层模型对中国地级及以上城市流动人口不同类型居留意愿的空间分异及影响因素进行对比分析。研究发现：具有短期和长期居留意愿的流动人口比例合计超过60%,表明两栖和多栖生计仍是流动人口的主导生计策略;短期和永久居留意愿在空间上存在明显的“一高一低”分布差异,短期居留意愿在东部地区最高,东北地区最低,永久居留意愿则呈完全相反的分布格局;中西部地区流动人口长期居留意愿最高。模型结果显示,流入地特征和流动人口个体特征共同影响着不同类型的居留意愿：在东部和中部、经济发达以及职工平均工资高的地区,流动人口短期和长期居留意愿较高,永久居留意愿较低;男性、农业户口、受教育程度和家庭月均收入低、在外流动时间短、跨省流动的流动人口倾向于短期和长期居留;而女性、非农业户口、受教育程度和家庭月均收入高、在省内流动、在外流动时间长的流动人口更愿意在流入地永久定居。

循环流动等非永久性人口迁移在发展中国家的人口迁移及其研究中占据重要地位,但在我国还少有对有关文献的介绍和评论。本文就非永久性迁移的概念、在发展中国家的重要地位及形成机制等方面回顾和评述了国外的有关文献,并在此基础上,结合作者在福建省对流动人口所作的若干调查,在更为广阔的领域内重新审视了我国流动人口研究中的一些重要问题。

循环流动等非永久性人口迁移在发展中国家的人口迁移及其研究中占据重要地位,但在我国还少有对有关文献的介绍和评论。本文就非永久性迁移的概念、在发展中国家的重要地位及形成机制等方面回顾和评述了国外的有关文献,并在此基础上,结合作者在福建省对流动人口所作的若干调查,在更为广阔的领域内重新审视了我国流动人口研究中的一些重要问题。

Since the abolition in China of unequal regulations and controls related to the urban labour market and rural–urban migration in recent years, attention has been paid to migrants’ settlement intentions and their integration into host cities. Settlement channels have become more diverse and more accessible to migrants, because of relaxed institutional constraints and the advanced market mechanism, which are essential to the pace and process of urbanisation, and welfare and service provisions in host cities. Using data from a survey conducted by the Institute of Population and Labor Economic of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Ningbo in 2014, this study examines migrants’ various settlement intention patterns, including traditional permanent settlement intention involving the transfer of one’s household registration ( hukou) status; de facto permanent settlement intention through purchasing urban housing; and long-term temporary settlement intention and short-term temporary settlement intention not involving the transfer of one’s hukou. This paper finds that hukou status has a limited impact on permanent settlement intention, and rural migrants tend to achieve permanent settlement through more flexible channels, such as purchasing urban housing in their host cities, thereby avoiding the institutional hurdle of obtaining a local urban hukou. The paper contributes to the study of migration in China by introducing a new concept of settlement intention, de facto permanent settlement intention, which has not yet been investigated empirically in the existing literature.

A growing body of literature has attempted to understand the social integration of rural migrants in Chinese cities, and specifically patterns and determinants of migrant settlement intention. However, few studies have directly investigated the role of housing access in migrant settlement in cities. Based on a 12-city migrant survey conducted in 2009, this paper adopts the structural equation modelling approach to delineate the causal relationship between housing access and migrant settlement intention. We found a positive correlation between access to formal housing and stronger settlement intention, but such relationship was more attributed to a sorting process in which rural migrants who are more willing to settle down strive to expand their access to formal housing. Meanwhile, controlling for socio-demographic variables, sociocultural attachment factors are more significant predictors of migrant settlement intention than economic opportunities and achievements. These findings imply the necessity of a combination of affordable housing policy and other social policy measures if the government hopes to achieve the goal of boosting permanent settlement of rural migrants in cities and towns.

The migrants' urban housing purchase intention and its spatial preference are directly related to the path selection of the conversion of rural migrants into urban citizens and the high quality development in the new phase of urbanization. Therefore, understanding migrants' urban purchase intention and its determinants and monitoring its spatial patterns are of great importance for both academic studies and policy-making. Based on the data from the 2016 China Migrant Dynamic Survey and related statistics of cities, this paper provides an updated and comprehensive study on migrants' urban housing purchase intention in the original and destination urban areas and the determinants by using spatial autocorrelation and multi-level regression models. The results suggest that 21.62% of respondents indicated their intention of purchasing housing in the destination city; in the meantime, 11.07% of respondents expressed their intention of housing ownership in the original urban areas, and 1.68% of migrants have the housing purchase intention in both the original and destination urban areas. The research also reveals a significant variation of migrants' urban housing purchase intention among cities of different sizes, and geographical regions, demonstrating that migrants' urban housing purchase intention in the original and destination urban areas forms a complementary distribution characteristic in space. While the southeastern coastal area is the main destination of migrants in China, which is dominated by inter-provincial mobility, the urban housing purchase intention of migrants in this area belongs to the lowest categories; in contrast, its urban housing purchase intention of the original urban areas is one of the highest among different regions. However, in the migration original areas, and the areas which is dominated by intra-provincial mobility, the situation is just the opposite. The modelling results reveal that the migrants' urban housing purchase intention is mainly affected by migrants' individual characteristics and the destination city's housing market, and the level of the destination city's social and economic development has no significant effect. However, there are some important differences between the determinants of the urban housing purchase intention of the original and destination urban areas, shedding light on the variation in the factors affecting migrants' urban housing purchase intention in different urban areas. More specifically, education, occupational status of professionals and technicians, semi-family migration, family life cycle and urban housing prices have only a significant impact on the housing purchase intention in the destination cities; possessing urban houses and the number of migration motilities has only contributed to the housing purchase intention in the original urban areas; nature of household registration, occupational status of manufacturing industry personnel, mobility range, duration at host location and city size have the opposite effect in the two types of housing purchase intention. These results provide an important scientific and evidence basis for policy making to promote the further increase in migrants' urban settlement intention and its permanency and stability, which will further facilitate the advancement of China's urbanization.

流动人口的城镇购房意愿和空间偏好直接关系到流动人口市民化的路径选择与城镇化的高质量发展。基于2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和统计数据,对比研究了流动人口流入地和流出地城镇购房意愿的空间特征和影响因素。研究发现：① 流动人口城镇购房意愿具有层次性和两栖性特征,还有小部分流动人口拥有多地城镇购房意愿。② 流入地和流出地城镇购房意愿在空间上形成“此高彼低”互补的分布特征。在人口流入地区和以跨省流动为主的东南区域,流动人口流入地城镇购房意愿低但流出地城镇购房意愿高;而在人口流出地和以省内流动为主的区域,情况恰与此相反。③ 城镇购房意愿主要受流动人口个体特征和城市住房市场因素的影响,但不同要素对两类城镇购房意愿的影响各异。受教育年限、管理技术人员、不完整家庭化流动、家庭生命周期和城市房价仅对流入地城镇购房意愿有显著影响;已在城镇购房和流动次数仅对流出地城镇购房意愿有促进作用;户口性质、制造加工业人员、流动范围、本地居留时间和城市规模则在两类意愿中起着相反方向的影响效应。

The household registration (can be known as Hukou) transfer intention of floating population is the key factor to improve the new-type urbanization. The factors influencing the willingness of Hukou transfer are very complex. However, the existing studies have paid little attention to the differences between the floating population with non-agricultural household registration and with agricultural household registration. Besides, the classification of various influencing factors is not clear, which makes the mechanism research lack of depth, as a result, the relevant policy suggestions put forward are limited. This study analyses the factors influencing the floating population’s intention of Hukou transfer through a multi-level regression logit model from three dimensions of initial agency, mediating factors and urban factors. It focuses on the differences of Hukou transfer intention between non-agricultural and agricultural floating population, and explore the influence mechanism. Data comes from the Survey of Social Integration and Mental Health of Migrants, which is conducted by the Department of Floating Population Service and Management of the National Population and Family Planning Commission of China in 2013 and 2014. The results showed that the floating population’s intention of Hukou transfer gradually adjusted with the changes of themselves, their families and the external environment. It is found that people with non-agricultural household registration have stronger willingness to transfer their Hukou in the cities than people with agricultural household registration. The initial factors, mediating factors and urban factors all have significant influences on both non-agricultural population and agricultural population. The stronger the personal agency is, the stronger the floating population’s intention of Hukou transfer; the stronger urban attraction, the stronger the willingness of the floating population to transfer their household registration; the mediating factors that change with time is the key to the change of Hukou transfer intention. It is worth noting that the effects are different between agricultural and non-agricultural floating population: First of all, the initial factors such as education and the district of their hometown have a greater impact on agricultural population; Secondly, the influence of mediating factors, such as age and the length of going out, on agricultural population is greater than non-agricultural population. Thirdly, the non-agricultural population pay more attention to the quality of the city and have stronger personal agency in the choice of the household registration destinations. The agricultural floating population are more sensitive to almost all kinds of factors due to less urban life experience and weak personal agency, and the factors affecting their Hukou transfer intention are more complex. The non-agricultural floating population have strong personal agency, few factors affecting their intention of Hukou transfer, and have a stronger preference for the quality and location of the city. Combined with the main conclusions of this study and the problems encountered in the process of urbanization, we put forward to policy suggestions to further promote the citizenization of the floating population.

流动人口城市落户意愿是提高户籍城镇化水平，推进市民化进程的关键影响因素。从个体初始因素、中介因素和流入地城市因素3个维度，应用多水平回归模型，研究了流动人口落户意愿的影响因素，并着重比较了农业户籍流动人口和非农户籍流动人口落户意愿影响机制的差异。研究发现非农户籍流动人口比农业户籍流动人口有更强的在流入地城市落户的意愿。初始能动性越高落户意愿越高、城市吸引力越大流动人口落户意愿越高，随时间变化的中介因素是落户意愿变化的关键变量。农业户籍流动人口由于城市生活经历较少，个人能动性较弱，对各种因素更加敏感，影响其落户意愿的因素多且复杂；非农户籍流动人口个人能动性强，城市经历丰富，影响落户意愿的因素少，且对流入地城市的品质和区位有着更强的选择偏好。农业户籍与非农户籍流动人口落户意愿的差异背后折射的是城乡二元结构的深远影响。

Drawing on a survey of migrants in 12 cities across four major urbanising areas in China, this paper analyses rural migrants’ intention for permanent urban settlement. We focus on one sizeable but often overlooked group of rural migrants, that is, the self-employed. Our hypothesis is that the self-employed migrants tend to have stronger intention for permanent urban settlement since they are usually more ingrained in urban economy and society. The empirical evidence supports our hypothesis. Moreover, the social and economic choices made by the self-employed migrants are consistent with their expressed intentions: they are more likely to migrate with spouses and to live with their family members, more likely to have a plan for house purchase in cities; they are also more integrated into urban society in terms of learning local dialects and making friends with local permanent residents.

China has experienced the unprecedented surge of rural-urban migration since the mid-1980s, which has led to rapid urban population growth. With the development of human-oriented new urbanization, the individual migration intentions attracted more attentions from scholars and governments in recent years. However, previous studies mainly examined the factors underpinning the peasant workers' intentions of settling down in various cities or returning rural hometowns, devoting insufficient attention to the peasants' migration intentions of leaving the countryside and moving to cities to settle down permanently. Based on the data of Chinese General Social Survey in 2010 (CGSS2010), the paper described the migration intentions of 4116 rural residents and then explained their migration intentions from three levels of individual, household and county with the multilevel Logistic model. The results are as follows. (1) The spatial heterogeneity makes the peasants who live in the same village have more similarity in migration intentions than those who live in different villages. Single level model ignores the spatial heterogeneity, and the inclusion of the spatial heterogeneity in the multilevel model can yield a better estimated result than single level model. (2) Most of the peasants do not intend to leave the countryside and move to cities in the next five years, and nearly 90% of peasants intend to stay in the countryside. 63.3% of peasants who intend to move to cities incline to moving to small cities and towns (counties, county-level cities and small towns), while 29.8% of peasants tend to move to prefecture-level cities, provincial capital cities and municipalities. (3) The peasants' migration decisions of leaving the countryside and moving to cities can be seen as a two-stage process. First, they decide whether or not to move to cities, and then they need to consider which city to settle down after they decide to leave the countryside. The empirical results show that the first-stage migration intentions are shaped by individual, household, and contextual factors jointly. Specifically, the peasants who have more human capitals (younger, with more education years, with migration experience), the peasants whose household has more children, higher economic status, more lands and more relationships with the city, and the peasants living in developed regions are more likely to move to cities. However, the second-stage migration decision is mainly shaped by regional economic development level and the residence locations. Specifically, the peasants living in undeveloped areas with their current residences not far from large cities have more willingness to move to large cities. (4) Finally, based on these findings above, some policy implications can be drawn. The governments should pay more attentions to improving the attractiveness of county-level cities and towns. And increasing peasants' human capitals and promoting the development of rural economy are the effective ways to promote the development of new urbanization.

新型城镇化是以人为核心的城镇化,因此农民城镇化意愿备受关注。基于2010年中国综合社会调查（CGSS2010）的数据,采用描述性统计和多层次Logistic回归模型,探讨了农民进城定居意愿和对不同等级城镇的选择偏好,并分析了其影响因素。研究表明：农民进城定居意愿较弱,且大多倾向于在县城或小城镇而非地级及以上城市定居。农民的进城意愿和城市偏好存在着显著的地理空间异质性。来自于同一村庄的农民,其进城意愿和对不同等级城镇的偏好具有较多的相似性。影响农民进城意愿的主要因素包括：个体人力资本禀赋、家庭人口结构、物质资本存量、城乡联系以及地区社会经济发展水平等。地区经济发展水平和地理区位是农民选择到小城镇而非地级及以上城市定居的主要影响因素。因此,促进县域城镇化发展,提高农民人力资本和家庭收入,是实现农村城镇化和农民市民化的有效途径。

Entering the “New Era”, along with the promotion of China’s new-type urbaniza-tion, the meaning of “people-centered urbanization” has become more and more important. How to integrate and citizenize (shiminhua) migrants in Chinese cities is increasingly becoming a significant policy issue. Extensive empirical studies have been carried out on migrants’ settlement intention in Chinese cities. However, many studies focused on the institutional barrier created by rural-urban dichotomy, while little attention has been given to the impacts of the current trend of “family migration” on migrants’ settlement intention. Particularly, little research on this topic has been done in the small and medium-sized cities. Existing studies found that migrants in different cities have distinct levels of settlement intention, local contexts matter. As such, this paper uses Wenzhou as a case study, to explore the influence of family migration on migrants’ settlement intention. The research shows that migrants in Wenzhou did not have a very strong settlement intention. Results from logistic regression models reveal that hukou status has no significant effect on migrants’ settlement intention, while individual’s occupation, stability of work and family migration have significant impacts on migrants’ settlement intention. We argue that individual’s socioeconomic characteristics, instead of intuitional barriers, have become increasingly important for migrants’ settlement. Furthermore, the paper points out that it is necessary to emphasize the differences between large cities and medium-sized cities in the mechanism underlying migrants’ settlement intention. The existing studies in large cities have found that migrants’ intention to stay in the city is largely for maximizing their income. However, our study indicates that migrants’ settlement intention in medium-sized cities is not only determined by income, but more importantly by family factors. Migrants with a whole family in the city tend to have higher settlement intention than couple and single migrants do. We suggest that to have a whole family in the city would effectively lift migrants’ willingness to settle down. Therefore, in the background of new-type urbanization and civilization of agricultural population, small and medium-sized cities should seize the opportunity to attract talents by considering family-oriented policy design, which would help stimulate migrants’ willingness to settle down and also enhance their settlement capacity, and finally achieve "people-oriented urbanization".

进入“新时代”,伴随国家新型城镇化战略的推进,“人的城镇化”的意义愈加重要,对流动人口定居意愿的实证不断增多,但对新趋势“家庭式迁移”的现状与影响尚缺乏系统研究,尤其对于中小城市的实证较少。本文通过对温州流动人口聚居区的深入调查,探讨“家庭式迁移”对流动人口定居意愿的影响。研究发现：流动人口总体定居意愿不强。户籍制度没有显著影响,个人职业、工作稳定性和“家庭式迁移”对流动人口定居意愿具有显著影响。因此,一方面需要强调大城市与中小城市在流动人口定居意愿机制上的差异性,另一方面强调在城市中拥有完整的家庭结构能够有效提升流动人口定居意愿。在新型城镇化和农业转移人口“市民化”背景下,中小城市应抓住“抢人”先机,考虑以家庭为整体的政策设计,激发流动人口定居意愿、提升其定居能力,以此推动实现“以人为本”的城镇化。

Based on data from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey and related statistics, this article examines the spatial pattern and its determinants of migrants' intention of hukou transfer of China's 276 prefecture- and provincial-level cities, using GIS spatial analysis and statistical modelling. The results show that the overall level of migrants' hukou transfer intention of the cities is not high, and varies significantly among different cities. The intention of migrants' hukou transfer increases as the administrative level and/or the size of their destination cities increase. Meanwhile, migrants' hukou transfer intention is generally higher in coastal mega-city regions than in other cities, but it is also relatively high in some provincial capital cities and small and medium-sized cities in some inland regions with good transport location and resource endowment. The spatial pattern of migrants' intention of hukou transfer is shaped jointly by both the characteristics of the destination cities and migrants themselves characteristics, with the former exerting more influence than the latter. High level of socioeconomic development and good location of the destination cities can effectively promote their migrants' intention of hukou transfer; however, their level of basic public services does not have the same effect. The degree of migrants' social integration in the destination cities also exerts positive effects on their hukou transfer intention. However, having medical insurance, the concentration in the secondary labor market and higher household income are negatively related to such intention; furthermore, the individual and family characteristics of migrants do not have a significant impact on it. Finally, on the basis of the above findings, we put forward some suggestions for relevant policy making.

基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和相关统计年鉴数据,对中国地级以上城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿、空间格局及影响因素进行了系统分析。研究发现,中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的整体水平并不高;等级高、规模大的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,而等级低、规模小的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低;沿海城市群流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,其他城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低,但内陆部分省会城市和交通区位与资源禀赋较好的中小城市也已经形成了一批流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高值区。中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间分布特征受到流入城市和流动人口自身双重力量的影响,流入城市因素的正向影响作用大于流动人口自身因素。其中,流入城市的社会、经济发展水平和流动人口在流入城市的社会融合程度是核心要素,对城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的提升具有正向的促进作用,而流动人口过于集中在次级劳动力市场的就业特征和较高的家庭财富与收入对户籍迁移意愿的提升却具有显著的抑制作用。最后,提出了相关政策启示。

In recent years, urbanization has been attached an increasing importance in China's overall development strategies. Migrants' settlement intention in cities has played an important role in affecting the urbanization trend in China. In such a context, both scholars and policy makers have increasingly attempted to understand the settlement intention of migrants in China. However, few studies so far have examined the role of migrants' access to urban public services in affecting their settlement intention from the perspective of different-sized cities. Based on the data from "the 2016 national dynamic monitoring survey of migrant population" in Shanghai Municipality and Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong provinces, this paper aims to address this issue. We utilize a composite index consisting of three dimensions to measure migrants' settlement intention, namely the long-term residence intention, the hukou transfer intention, and the urban housing purchase intention. We divide urban public services into two types, namely employment-related public services and social (non-employment) public services. The paper then explores the differences in the supply of the two types of urban public services and their impacts on migrants' urban settlement intention of different-sized cities. The results show that the bigger the size of a city is, the greater the likelihood that migrants get access to urban pubic services and the higher their level of urban settlement intention is. Migrants with easier access to the urban public services are more likely to settle down in cities. Through the ordered logistic regression model analysis, we also find that, after controlling for the effects of individual characteristics, family features, and migration characteristics, the two types of urban public services provided by cities for migrants have played a critical role in affecting migrants' urban settlement intention. However, the impacts of access to urban public services on migrants' urban settlement intention are different among different-sized cities. This is reflected in the following facts. First, migrants with easier access to unemployment insurance, medical insurance and housing security are more likely to settle down in cities, but this positive effect is limited to large cities. Second, in all size cities, migrants who are more likely to be covered by resident health records and receive more health education are more likely to settle down in cities. Finally, in small cities, only those covered by resident health records and receiving more health education have great effects on urban settlement intention.

利用2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据中的东部沿海6省市数据集,将长期居住意愿、户籍迁入意愿和本地购房打算三部分指标的加和定义为城市居留意愿指标,将城镇基本公共服务分为就业关联和非就业关联两种类型,运用序次Logistic回归模型,系统考察两类城镇基本公共服务的获得特征对流动人口城市居留意愿的影响及其在不同规模城市间的差异特征。研究发现：流动人口城市居留意愿和城镇基本公共服务获得率呈现出随城市规模扩大而上升的梯度变动特征;在流动人口获得的城镇基本公共服务较为有限时,流动人口的城市居留意愿不高。从影响效应看,流动人口在流入城市获得的城镇基本公共服务是影响其城市居留意愿的关键因素,此类影响效应因公共服务内容和城市规模的不同而存在差异。大城市流动人口获得的医疗保险、失业保险和住房保障显著增进了流动人口的城市居留意愿,但上述影响效应在中小城市并不明显;健康档案和健康教育普及程度除了在个别规模城市中没有显著影响效应外,在其余规模城市中都具有显著的正向影响效应;在小城市,仅健康档案和健康教育普及程度对其流动人口城市居留意愿具有显著且正向的影响作用。

In China the high level of intercity mobility of migrant workers is not conducive to the sustainable development of urbanization． Based on a survey of migrant workers in six cities in Eastern China，this research analyzes the features of spatial mobility and group differentiation of migrant workers，and investigates the individual －level factors determining spatial mobility level as well as factors representing the relations between migrant workers and socioeconomic environment． Age，educational attainment and number of years since out －migration from rural home are significant individual －level determinantsof spatial mobility．With respect to the individual －environment relations，influential factors include family accompanying status，income，industry urban pension insurance participation，and social relationship with local communities． Higher level of urban integration is associated with lower spatial mobility， longer duration of stay in the city，and more stable work and life．

农业转移人口空间流动速度快,城市更换频率高,频繁的空间流动不利于城镇化健康发展。基于东部6城市的问卷调查,分析了农业转移人口进入城市后空间流动状况,并在此基础上研究了决定农业转移人口空间流动速度和在城市居留时间长短的因素。研究显示:从个人因素来看,外出年限、年龄、受教育程度是农业转移人口空间流动速度的决定因子。从个人与环境的关系来看家属随迁状况、收入、就业行业、参加城镇养老保险状况与否、与当地的社会关系等会影响农业转移人口在某一城市居留时间的长短。农业转移人口个人特征及个人与流入城市之间的关系反映了农业转移人口融入当地社会的能力。城市融入能力越高,空间流动速度越慢,在城市居留的时间越长。

Against the background of globalization, urbanization, and the relaxation of household registration system, China's large cities have witnessed massive inflows of new migrants since the start of the new millennium. The integration of new migrants into destination cities hinges on their ability to and inclination to settle down in the destination. New migrants' settlement intention has drawn extensive attention from policy-makers and the media, but such topic remains under-researched in China's migration literature. Previous studies on migrants' settlement intention have focused merely on poorly educated rural migrant workers, devoting insufficient attention to the increasing diversification of new migrants' socio-economic status in the Chinese context. Based on a questionnaire survey conducted in six cities, this article aims to investigate patterns and determinants of new migrants' settlement intention in China, with a particular focus on the heterogeneity of migrants. Our descriptive results show that new migrants generally have rather strong intention to settle down in destination cities, and that 58.8% of them intend to live in the destination city permanently. However, their intention to settle down may not be translated into actions due to the lack of capabilities of settling down. Results from logistic regression models indicate that female, well-educated, high-income, established migrants and migrants whose migration destinations are located in the central and western regions and who have local hukou status, abundant local social capital, strong local identities, and high life satisfaction have stronger intention to settle down in the destination city, and that income levels, hukou status, social networks, identities, and places of residence play a dominant role in this regard. We further divided new migrants into 3 cohorts: skilled migrants who have attained a university degree or college diploma, labor migrants with high school education or below, and business migrants who run small business such as restaurants, factories, and workshops and found that determinants of migrants' settlement intention vary across different migrant cohorts. Specifically, business migrants have the strongest intention, followed by skilled migrants and labor migrants. Skilled migrants' intention to stay permanently in the destination city is determined by their social linkages with local residents and their sense of belonging to the destination city, while that of labor migrants is jointly affected by their occupation, property status, social capital, identities, and places of residence. With regard to business migrants, human capital, social capital, household registration status, and places of residence play a dominant role in shaping their settlement intention. Our findings suggest that China's new migrants become increasingly heterogeneous in terms of the settlement intention, and that they integrate into the host urban society through different paths. Therefore, it is necessary for governments at all scales to enact different policies designed for particular migrant cohorts.

基于广州、东莞、沈阳、成都、杭州、郑州市所获问卷数据,采用描述性统计和Logistic回归模型,探讨中国城市新移民的定居意愿及其影响因素。研究表明,城市新移民总体上呈现较强的定居意愿,其中投资型新移民的定居意愿最强,智力型新移民次之,劳力型新移民最弱。影响新移民定居意愿的主要因素包括户籍因素、社会网络、社会认同、生活满意度和地域差异。与本地人交往和社会认同是影响智力型新移民定居意愿的决定性因素;职业、产权、本地社会资本、社会认同和地域差异是影响劳力型新移民定居意愿的主要因素;就投资型新移民而言,影响其定居意愿的主要因素为人力资本、本地社会资本、户籍状况及其所在的城市。地方政府应根据新移民所属的类型,有针对性地制定社会与空间政策,为新移民提供更为多元化的城市融合路径。