1 引言
大量事实证明以全球大规模城市化进程为代表的人类活动是气候变化的重要驱动因素。城市人口快速增长、土地利用改变以及大量化石能源开发利用等人类活动,促进经济社会的快速发展,也导致一系列气候系统的变化。一些研究表明气候变化在某些区域一定程度上会产生减少供暖需求和对热能的依赖[3],提高部分地区农业作物产量[4],促进植物生长和生物圈活动增加[5]等积极影响。但更多研究和事实证明,气候变化给未来人类生存与可持续发展带来巨大风险和挑战。城市化过程中大量化石能源利用,导致全球3/4的温室气体排放,直接影响气候变化进程及其未来变化趋势。城市化可对局地气候产生强烈影响,如热岛效应[6,7,8,9],降水空间分配不均[10,11]和洪水、风暴等极端天气频发[12,13,14]。同时,城市已经集聚了全世界一半以上人口,是人类经济社会活动的主要承载体,受气候变化影响大[15]。气候变化对城市化的影响主要表现为能源消耗变化[16,17]、死亡率提高与传染病传播[18,19,20]、沿海及海岛城市安全[21,22,23]、基础设施破坏[24,25]和水资源短缺问题[26,27]。全球气候变化与人类活动相互作用是制约典型城市群地区未来可持续发展的重要瓶颈[28]。
国际社会为应对气候变化的巨大挑战,早在1988年成立了政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）,主要开展气候相关影响、适应、减缓和脆弱性等问题的科学研究。随后,多个跨区域多中心网络组织相继建立,如地方政府可持续发展理事会（1990年）,C40城市气候领导小组（2005年）和100韧性城市（2013年）等[29]。2015年《巴黎协定》达成,推动各国节能减排措施执行,以大幅减少气候变化影响和风险。目前,适应与减缓为国际应对气候变化的两大策略。适应一般被描述为自然或人类系统对新环境或变化中的环境做出的调整[30]。减缓定义为减少温室气体排放或进入大气的行动或方法[31]。以往关于气候变化的城市问题和应对措施研究局限于某一领域,例如基于适应策略的城市排水系统设计[32,33,34]、绿色空间规划[35,36]、绿色基础设施应用[37,38,39]、城市治理方式[40]、减少气象灾害风险和危害[41]等;基于缓解策略的低能耗建筑[42,43]、冷屋顶和绿屋顶等新技术运用[44,45,46,47]、可替代能源开发和能源结构调整[48,49,50]等。在城市脆弱性、暴露度、社会适应力、风险和危害等多个方面叠加,产生协同作用和效果,将适应与减缓相结合的系统性方法才能实现长期的可持续发展目标。目前,总体上看,研究主要集中在工程技术、气象与气候学、建筑、能源等某一领域相对独立地进行,着重从地—气系统的变化事实、相互作用关系及其驱动机制阐释。对于人类城市化过程、地球表层变化、气候变化系统的协同相互关系解析仍然不足。从城市化为代表的人类活动角度的适应与减缓,或许是应对气候变化的最关键和最现实路径。更加充分认识大规模城市化进程的影响,从地—气耦合转向人—地—气耦合是未来一个阶段研究的趋势与方向。如何深入推动粗放型城市化向“以人为本”新型城市化转型[51],从过去对气候变化影响较大、不可持续的城市化向对气候变化影响较小的可持续城市化转型,减少气象灾害风险和危害、减缓气候变暖、提高城市社会适应力、降低城市脆弱性和暴露度等,亟待从自然科学与人文社会科学交叉多学科视角来增进认识。基于此,本文首先简要给出全球大规模城市化和气候变化的事实,综述归纳了城市化与气候变化的相互影响机制以及交互关系,建构适应与减缓气候变化的多维度可持续城市化分析框架,为实现全球和区域可持续发展目标提供科学基础和可能的路径选择。
2 全球大规模城市化和气候变化的事实
近几十年,全球经历着大规模、快速发展城市化进程,而且主要发生在发展中国家和地区。据2018年联合国城市化发展展望显示,目前全世界55%人口居住在城镇地区,并预计到2050年这个比例将达到68%[1]。亚洲和非洲虽然城市化率较低,分别为50%、43%,但城镇人口增长迅速。世界城镇人口从1950年7.51亿快速增长至2018年42亿,其中近90%城镇人口增长发生在亚洲和非洲（图1）。撒哈拉以南非洲、东亚、西亚、拉丁美洲以及加勒比地区等欠发达地区城市化速度比发达国家城市化的历史趋势更快。其中,东亚地区经历最快的城市化,1950—2015年的65年间,城市人口比例从18%增长至60%[1]。按现有速度增长,预计到2050年,中等收入国家将形成230座新的城市[52]。研究结果显示,2018年全球人居环境不透水表面达到797076 km²,是1990年的1.5倍,期间亚洲人居环境不透水面增长近3倍,为全球增长最快大洲[53]。
图1
图1
1950—2050年世界城市与乡村人口变化和世界各地区城市人口随时间变化
注：据联合国人口司数据[1]绘制。
Fig. 1
Urban and rural population in the world and urban population by region, 1950-2050
自人类进入工业化社会以来,极端天气频发、海洋变暖、冰川冰盖融化、海平面上升等一系列问题引发国际社会对全球气候变化的关注。根据IPCC第五次评估报告,1880—2012年全球平均陆地和海洋表面温度升高了0.85 ℃,全球气候变化是毋庸置疑的事实,并且气候系统变暖趋势将持续。2015—2019年是由完整气象观测记录以来最暖的5年,全球平均温度较工业化前时期高出1.1 °C;2019年7月欧洲多地遭受高温热浪侵袭成为现代气象观测史上最热的月份（图2）。1971—2010年在全球范围内海洋上层75 m海水每10年升温0.11 °C。同时,气候变暖导致陆地冰川和两极冰盖强烈融化,1993—2009年全球陆地冰川平均损失速率达275 Gt/年。至2011年全球大气主要温室气体二氧化碳（CO2）、甲烷（CH4）和氧化亚氮（N2O）的浓度较1750年分别上升40%、150%和20%,达到至少过去80万年以来前所未有的水平。由于冰川冰盖消融和海水热膨胀等因素,1901—2010年间全球平均海平面上升了0.19 m。自19世纪中叶以来,海平面上升的速度高于过去2000年来的平均速度,严重威胁世界上诸多沿海地区和低海拔岛屿[54]。由于气候变化将深刻影响人类社会经济和自然系统,气候行动成为联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）中的关键目标之一。
图2
图2
2019年7月全球温度距平(相对于1951—1980年)
注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS(2020)4395号标准地图制作,底图边界无修改;数据来源NASA[2]。
Fig. 2
Global temperature anomalies in July, 2019 (vs 1951-1980)
3 城市化与气候变化的交互影响
3.1 城市化对气候变化的影响
3.1.1 对温度的影响 城市化导致热岛效应对局部地区升温作用显著。大量研究表明,城市地区经历了比非城市地区更强烈的变暖趋势[55]。即使在人口不足1万的小城镇也能检测到热岛效应[7]。研究表明,城市热岛的局部升温作用与城市建筑几何形状、土地覆盖、不透水表面、人为热、植被和水覆盖面积减少等相关[6, 56-57]。土地城市化导致城市地表反照率降低,粗糙度提高,使得城市在白天吸收更多短波辐射。这些吸收热量在夜晚逐渐释放,导致闷热夜晚的发生[58]。在太阳辐射较强情况下,城市化会诱发极端热浪天气的发生[8]。不合理的城市布局可能阻碍城镇空气流动,导致热量疏散减慢[59]。城市人口规模扩大导致从交通出行、住宅能耗、人体新陈代谢等各种来源产生的人为热增加,导致地表能量盈余[60]。
3.1.2 对降水的影响 城市化导致降水空间分布的局部改变,尤其是增加了城市下风区降水。Li等通过对北京城市化进程中气候变化趋势分析,发现自20世纪70年代以来北京降水较多区域从城西转到东北部[10]。大量研究发现,城市化导致城市下风区降水增加[11]。Huff等检测圣路易斯、芝加哥、休斯顿、华盛顿等8座城市地区降水变化,发现其夏季降水最大值增加7%~19%,且主要发生在中心城区下风处16~56 km位置[12]。城市表面粗糙度的增加,有利于上升气流的大气辐合作用增强,促进降水[61]。而大量不透水地表,降低城市蒸发量,抑制降水。同时,工业排放增加气溶胶负荷,使大气稳定性提升,从而减少降水[8]。
3.1.3 对极端天气的影响 城市化导致了高温热浪、暴雨、冰雹等极端天气和强对流天气明显增多、增强[13]。Huff等发现城市化导致美国中西部圣路易斯及周围地区暴雨最大值增加13%~47%,冰雹最大值增加90%~350%[12]。Kong等利用1961—2010年6—8月中国544个气象站点的日降水数据,得出中国城市化使得全国范围内极端降水阈值提升1.68%[14]。同时,由于大量不透水地表,使得地表径流时间缩短,径流峰值大于排水系统阈值,导致城市内涝甚至洪水等事件频发。由于人地关系紧张,不少河流三角洲地区的城市占用大面积洪涝缓冲区甚至湖泊、河道,使得城市在相同降水条件下遭受到更大的洪涝灾害[62]。地表径流短时间内将大量污染物带入河流或下渗进入地下水系统,导致水质恶化与水中溶解氧浓度降低[63]。研究估计,自20世纪50年代以来,温室气体排放和快速城市化带来的城市热岛增强等人为因素导致华东地区夏季极端高温事件频率增加60倍以上[64]。Wang等研究发现城市化使得京津冀地区热浪的平均温度提升约0.6 ℃[65]。
图3
图3
城市化对气候变化的多尺度叠加效应
Fig. 3
The multiscale superposition effect of urbanization on climate change
3.2 气候变化对城市化的影响
气候变化主要通过全球变暖、海平面上升、极端事件、降水重新分配对城市化产生影响。其影响主要表现为5个方面：能源消耗变化、健康与传染病传播、沿海及海岛城市安全、基础设施破坏和水资源短缺等问题（图4）。并且随着气候变化幅度的增强,这种影响并非是线性增长关系,而可能随之呈现出非线性的快速增加。
图4
3.2.2 气候变化与人类健康 全球变暖和极端气候事件直接（热浪或者提高死亡率）或间接（传染病蔓延、病毒存活率等）影响人的身体和心理健康。研究表明,强热浪导致患有心血管或脑血管疾病老人的高死亡率,引发夏季死亡率的继发性高峰[18]。高温还会增加空气中臭氧和其他污染物的含量,从而加剧心血管和呼吸系统疾病[20]。Kovats等通过建模分析热浪对大伦敦地区住院率的影响,观察到在21.5 ℃基础上,每增加1 ℃,死亡率增加3.3%[68]。气候条件严重影响水媒疾病、蚊媒传染病（如登革热、罗斯河病毒疾病）、食源性传染病（包括由沙门氏菌、弯曲杆菌和许多其他微生物导致）和通过其他冷血动物传播的疾病[19]。气候变化使人畜共患寄生虫活动范围扩大,提高寄生虫病患病率[69]。城市化和相关的城市土地扩张使夏季热指数增加75%,降低城市居民生活舒适度[70]。
3.2.4 极端天气气候事件破坏基础设施 洪水、暴风雨等极端天气使城镇遭受财产损失和人员伤亡,也对基础设施、工业生产、废物污水处理系统和其他公用设施造成极大破坏[24]。气候变化使水循环加速、极端降水增多,从而直接影响地表径流和洪水频率及强度[73]。由于大面积不透水地表以及排水系统能力有限,城市更容易遭受内涝、洪水等灾害[25]。考虑到人口和经济集聚,全球大都市、城市群等地区,风险显著提高。2010年长三角地区江苏和浙江受洪涝灾害面积共达773万hm2,绝收面积达22.6万hm2;2013年,浙江省因台风“菲特”造成直接经济损失达124.05亿元[28]。此外,与极端天气相关的自然灾害还包括飓风、山体滑坡、泥石流等,对城镇地区产生更大危害[74]。
4 适应和减缓气候变化的多维度可持续城市化调控
4.1 国际上可持续城市化相关的研究和行动联盟
1987年布伦特兰报告提出了可持续发展概念,即既满足当代人需求,又不对后代人满足其自身需求的能力构成危害,从社会、经济、环境3个维度维护人类福祉。针对城市可持续发展所面临难题,全球已有200多个多尺度跨区域的城市网络成立,打破了静态且孤立的科学、实践和政策格局,促进利益相关者跨越城市治理、知识创新与城市行动等系统边界的交流,表1列举了许多杰出示例[29]。这些网络可分为研究类合作（如IPCC、城市气候变化研究网络）和行动类合作（如C40城市气候领导小组）。前者提供城市对适应与缓解决策的科学依据,后者提供城市间点对点学习的机构。这些网络加强了科学—实践者—决策者互动,为可持续城市化转型创造有力条件[78]。2012年“未来地球”计划被正式提出,通过建立跨越自然、人文、社会和工程等学科领域的全球研究网络,实现全球的可持续发展[79]。跨学科、跨领域、跨地域的合作联合是解决人类可持续发展问题的大势所趋。
表1 多尺度跨区域的城市合作网络示例(引自文献[29],有修改)
Tab. 1
| 多尺度网络 | 核心领域 | 关键举措 |
|---|---|---|
| 联合国可持续发展目标SDGs | 全球综合性可持续发展目标 | 2030议程 |
| 政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) | 全球气候变化的科学、技术和社会经济信息评估 | 综合与专题评估报告 |
| 未来地球计划 | 跨自然、人文、工程等学科领域的全球研究网络,可持续发展解决途径 | 科学计划,未来地球计划中国国家委员会等分区推进 |
| 100韧性城市 | 城市行动,韧性措施,当地领导,全球影响 | 100韧性城市网络 |
| C40城市气候领导小组 | 气候适应,减缓措施,空气质量,能源和建筑,食物,水资源与浪费,交通与城市规划 | 期限2020 |
| 城市联盟 | 全球南方城市,城市贫民窟,城市与可持续发展 | 创新议程 |
| 城市转型联盟 | 经济学,政策选项,金融 | 资助城市转型 |
| 全球气候与能源市长公约 | 数据,金融,创新应对气候变化 | 创新4城 |
| 地方可持续发展协会(ICLEI) | 低排放,基于自然,循环的,具有韧性的,公平的和以人为本的发展路径 | 塔拉诺阿对话,100%可再生能源城市和区域网络 |
| 大都市 | 城市外交和大都市倡议,城市治理能力 | 大都市城市创新,大都市天文台 |
| 世界城市和地方联合组织 (UCLG) | 大都市地区,中等城市,地区,当地可持续发展目标 | 学习UCLG |
| 城市气候变化研究网络 | 具体到城市气候变化需求的城市气候变化问题的科学评估(如城市热岛效应、空气质量、城市设计) | 城市气候变化评估(ARC3) |
| 城市知识行动网络 | 城市科学与政策和实践连接,合作设计可持续的城市未来建造能力 | 城市和气候变化科学会议,自然和城市中心评估, |
| 区域网络 | ||
| 非洲中心城市 | 召集人和知识中心节点驱动基于实证的政策对非洲的影响 | 城市实验议程,NOTRUC措施,MOVE议程 |
| 加拿大城市联盟 | 代表所有加拿大城市的组织者,召集人和市政出资人 | 气候创新市政局 |
| 城市抵御极端天气可持续性研究网络 | 将城市科学与政策,规划和管理连接 | 通过与当地或区域利益相关者合作设计的韧性城市的建造能力 |
4.2 多维度可持续城市化
4.2.1 从地—气耦合到人—地—气耦合 1864年George的著作《人和自然》首次关注人对全球变化作用。2000年诺贝尔奖得主Crutzen提出“人类世”的概念,人类活动在全球过程的多个方面扮演重要角色,引发科学界对人类活动的广泛关注[80]。2009年国际地层委员会成立人类世工作组（Anthropocene Working Group, AWG）展开对是否将“人类世”纳入地质时间尺度的研究。期间,人们发现能区别于其他地质层的人类活动特征,包括黑炭、塑料、混凝土以及239+240Pu沉积等新标志[81]。人类活动正使全球生物多样性发生地理变化,且对海洋生物多样性变化最为强烈和多变[82]。虽然对于人类世能否正式使用,学界仍在探讨,但将人类活动作为全球变化的重要驱动因素,分析框架从地—气耦合到人—地—气耦合的转变至关重要。近年来,不少自然科学关注到人类活动过程的重要性,但对复杂的人类活动缺乏全面的理解和分析。而从事人类活动研究的社会学科往往对人类影响的全球变化未有高度重视和关注[83]。因此将人类活动作为全球和区域气候变化的关键因素,推动学科融合,引入人文视角,从过去地—气耦合系统研究转向人—地—气耦合系统,能在全球变化问题上获得更加全面的科学认识。大规模城市化是人类活动的集中体现,千万规模人口的大城市、城市群和城市连绵带等的出现也是人类世的主要特征之一。地理视角的城市化是人类生产生活方式从农村向城市的变化过程及其空间上的演变过程,包括人口城乡结构、土地覆被、生产方式和社会适应等。城市化和城市能否可持续在未来全球和区域适应和减缓气候变化及可持续发展中发挥着至关重要作用。
图5
图5
应对气候变化的多维度可持续城市化
Fig. 5
Multidimensional sustainable urbanization adapting to and mitigating climate change
（2）土地维度：紧凑城市、土地利用集约与蓝/绿色空间布局。紧凑城市具有相对较高的密度、混合土地利用、高强度开发利用、通过完善的公共交通系统紧密连结的特点[93],使城市居民减少长距离交通使用,节省出行能源消耗。在有效交通和基础设施的位置和路线上扩展住宅区,激励人们更多使用公共交通。对于处于快速发展阶段的城市,紧凑的城市发展可以促进更高的人口密度,适当的土地利用规划,减少基础设施投入,保护绿色空间和生态环境承载力,抑制城市热岛[48]。其次,紧凑的空间布局有利于减少住宅和服务建筑耗能,节省基础设施投入。Wende等研究发现紧凑和高体积的建筑形状比低体积的建筑更节能,如相同住户数,带状排屋的能源需求仅为独栋住宅的56%左右[42]。
城市绿/蓝色空间包括公园、绿道、私家花园、绿色屋顶、湖泊、河流等。大量研究表明,城市绿/蓝色空间具有调节气候,降低城市温度,减少城市碳排放,增加社区可居住性,有利于城市生态系统生物多样性等综合作用[41, 95]。绿/蓝色空间通过提供遮阳和增加蒸发蒸腾降低空气和地表温度[39]。研究证实,绿地地表温度显著低于住宅、工厂建筑及铺有路面的建成区等其他地表覆盖类型[95,96],但绿化区域的降温范围大概在几百米范围内,且其冷空气流动会受到拥挤的交通或高层建筑阻碍[36]。利用绿/蓝色空间建设城市风道,有利于城市空气流通和热量疏散。此外,城市绿化可以储存CO2,减少城市碳排放。例如,在莱斯特城市植被中储存碳总量达31.6 t/hm2 [97]。Chen[38]研究了中国35个主要城市绿色基础设施的碳汇作用,得出平均碳汇强度为21.34 t/hm2,2010年平均年固碳率为2.16 t/hm2。城市绿地和绿屋顶还能减缓径流流速[98],截留雨水,增加土壤的渗透和蓄水能力,减少地表径流中的污染负荷,从而大大改善城市排水系统[41, 99]。
（3）经济维度：低碳经济与创新驱动经济。城市经济发展依赖能源生产和消费。传统工业的化石燃料燃烧是温室气体主要来源,是导致全球变暖的主要因素。2003年英国政府在《我们的未来：创建低碳经济》白皮书中提出低碳经济的发展模式。通过能源结构调整、产业结构创新、节能减排技术提高等,实现低消费、低污染和低排放。
采用多样化能源结构,低碳能源或无碳能源逐步替代传统化石能源,建立可持续的能源体系[49]。化石能源中煤炭单位热值最高,减少煤炭在能源消耗比重,提高石油和天然气替代技术,对煤炭进行低碳化和无碳化处理,有效降低碳排放。目前,国家政策在提高能效和可再生能源比例上发挥巨大作用,如《能源发展战略行动计划（2014—2020）》（中国）、《2020气候和能源一揽子计划》（欧盟）、《清洁能源计划》（美国）等[100]。研究表明,价格和基于市场的政策更有利于技术研发和创新,促使企业提高能源利用率,降低工业能源强度。以市场为基础的政策包括征收碳税碳排放许可交易、产品低碳标识等,如美国的二氧化硫市场和欧盟的碳排放交易体系[101]。
工业制造业、交通运输业和建筑业需要消耗大量能源,而第三产业碳足迹最低[102]。调整产业结构,发展创新驱动经济,减少经济增长对重化工业的依赖,降低产业能源强度,同时增加就业机会。
（4）社会维度：绿色社区。绿色社区包括绿色交通出行、降低居住能耗、适度消费等绿色生活方式和观念,达到低能耗、低排放的目的。
适度消费：通过宣传教育,提高社会可持续发展意识,将奢侈消费方式转向适度消费,如减少“一次性”消费、光盘行动、处理闲置物品、选择低碳产品等。过度消费增加资源的压力、产生过多生活垃圾以及增加制造生产中能源消耗。提倡绿色出行,减少对汽车依赖,将有效降低个人碳足迹[102]。
5 结论与讨论
（1）已有大量研究证明全球大规模城市化与气候变化的科学事实,解决适应与减缓气候变化的问题迫在眉睫。以城市化为代表的人类活动是气候变化的重要驱动因素,将城市化过程纳入地气系统耦合过程,建立人—地—气系统耦合分析框架,更好的理解气候变化过程与未来趋势,以更好地科学应对气候变化。
（2）城市化与气候变化之间存在着复杂的交互作用与尺度效应。城市化主要通过化石能源消耗、地表下垫面改变等,导致了热岛效应、降水空间分配不均与极端天气频发,并通过尺度叠加效应,导致气候变暖与区域空气污染。气候变化主要通过全球/区域升温、海平面上升、极端事件、水资源对城市化产生影响,主要表现为能源消耗变化、健康与传染病传播、沿海及海岛城市安全、基础设施破坏和水资源短缺问题。
（3）可持续城市化是人类社会应对气候变化的必然选择,以人地关系协调为前提,充分认识可持续城市化内涵,可从人口、土地、经济和社会4个关键维度,建构具有气候韧性的可持续城市化分析框架。人口空间均衡与基础设施建设和改造,紧凑城市、土地利用集约与绿/蓝空间布局,发展低碳经济与创新驱动经济,建设绿色社区与低能耗建设,倡导适度消费等可持续的社会观念等是实现气候韧性城市与人类可持续发展目标的路径选择。
从总体上看,当前对城市化与气候变化两者关系的认识和理解仍处于探索阶段,对城市化与气候变化交互作用关键机制、局地—区域—全球多尺度效应、人—地—气耦合过程与复杂界面过程等关键科学问题的认知很不充分。而适应和减缓气候变化、推动可持续发展目标实现的需求又十分紧迫,如何建立人地气耦合系统分析范式和视角,通过多维度可持续城市化来适应和减缓气候变化提供了可能,亟待开展跨学科的深入探究。应对气候变化需要自然和人文的学科交叉,以及科学—政策—实践的紧密合作。地理学具有综合性和交叉性的学科优势,与气候、水文、人口、城市、经济、社会等学科高度关联,有利于探索气候变化与可持续城市化问题的综合解决方案[106,107]。
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PMID:22854785
[本文引用: 1]
Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes.Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China
DOI:10.1038/nclimate2410 URL [本文引用: 1]
The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and a potential mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area
DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-0852-x URL [本文引用: 1]
Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter
DOI:10.1007/s003820050007 URL [本文引用: 1]
Climate change, urbanization and the Yangtze River Delta
气候变化·城市化·长江三角洲
Contrasting patterns of mortality and hospital admissions during hot weather and heat waves in Greater London, UK
Epidemiological research has shown that mortality increases during hot weather and heat waves, but little is known about the effect on non-fatal outcomes in the UK.The effects of hot weather and heat waves on emergency hospital admissions were investigated in Greater London, UK, for a range of causes and age groups. Time series analyses were conducted of daily emergency hospital admissions, 1 April 1994 to 31 March 2000, using autoregressive Poisson models with adjustment for long term trend, season, day of week, public holidays, the Christmas period, influenza, relative humidity, air pollution (ozone, PM10), and overdispersion. The effects of heat were modelled using the average of the daily mean temperature over the index and previous two days.There was no clear evidence of a relation between total emergency hospital admissions and high ambient temperatures, although there was evidence for heat related increases in emergency admissions for respiratory and renal disease, in children under 5, and for respiratory disease in the 75+ age group. During the heat wave of 29 July to 3 August 1995, hospital admissions showed a small non-significant increase: 2.6% (95% CI -2.2 to 7.6), while daily mortality rose by 10.8% (95% CI 2.8 to 19.3) after adjusting for time varying confounders.The impact of hot weather on mortality is not paralleled by similar magnitude increases in hospital admissions in the UK, which supports the hypothesis that many heat related deaths occur in people before they come to medical attention. This has evident implications for public health, and merits further enquiry.
The increase of exotic zoonotic helminth infections: The impact of urbanization, climate change and globalization
Urbanization effects on human-perceived temperature changes in the North China plain
The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones
DOI:10.1177/0956247807076960 URL [本文引用: 2]
The role of urban growth, climate change, and their interplay in altering runoff extremes
DOI:10.1002/hyp.v32.12 URL [本文引用: 1]
Unjust waters: Climate change, flooding and the urban poor in Africa
DOI:10.1177/0956247808089156 URL [本文引用: 1]
Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km2 of drylands towards desertification
Drylands cover 41% of the earth's land surface and include 45% of the world's agricultural land. These regions are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to anthropogenic climate and land use change and are under threat of desertification. Understanding the roles of anthropogenic climate change, which includes the CO fertilization effect, and land use in driving desertification is essential for effective policy responses but remains poorly quantified with methodological differences resulting in large variations in attribution. Here, we perform the first observation-based attribution study of desertification that accounts for climate change, climate variability, CO fertilization as well as both the gradual and rapid ecosystem changes caused by land use. We found that, between 1982 and 2015, 6% of the world's drylands underwent desertification driven by unsustainable land use practices compounded by anthropogenic climate change. Despite an average global greening, anthropogenic climate change has degraded 12.6% (5.43 million km) of drylands, contributing to desertification and affecting 213 million people, 93% of who live in developing economies.
Several viewpoints on the background of compiling the "National New Urbanization Planning (2014-2020)"
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201502001
[本文引用: 1]
The "National New Urbanization Planning (2014-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as "Planning") marks a significant transformation in China's urbanization development process, with the core of human urbanization, and the general requirement of seeking advance in stability. This paper elaborates the authors' preliminary thoughts on the formation of the "Planning" mainly from the speed and quality aspects of the urbanization development. Urbanization level should be consistent with industrial restructuring, the amount of new jobs, the actual ability of absorbing rural population, and water-soil resource and environment capacity of the urban area, etc. The large scale and high speed urbanization development in China has resulted in severe environment pollution, great pressures on the infrastructure, and huge challenge to the supporting capacity of natural resources. Urbanization is an important frontier scientific issue with obvious cross disciplinary feature, which is also a complex system. The interdisciplinary human economic geography has outstanding advantages and solid research foundation in the field of urbanization research. Therefore, facing the significant realistic demand of the national new urbanization, we should do some in-depth research and tracking studies in this field.
关于“国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020)”编制大背景的几点认识
Climate change science and sustainable development
DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.07.002
[本文引用: 1]
Since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, new observations have further proved that the warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. Each of the last three successive decades before 2012 has been successively warmer at global mean surface temperature than any preceding decade since 1850. 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years. From 1998 to 2012, the rate of warming of the global land surface slowed down, but it did not reflect the long-term trends in climate change. The ocean has warmed, and the upper 75 m of the ocean warmed by more than 0.11℃ per decade since 1970. Over the period of 1971 to 2010, 93% of the net energy increase in the Earth's climate system was stored in the oceans. The rate of global mean sea level rise has accelerated, which was up to 3.2 mm yr-1 between 1993 and 2010. Anthropogenic global ocean carbon stocks were likely to have increased and caused acidification of the ocean surface water. Since 1971, the glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. Since 1979, the Arctic sea ice extent deceased at 3.5% to 4.1% per decade, and the Antarctic sea ice extent in the same period increased by 1.2% to 1.8% per decade. The extent of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased. Since the early 1980s, the permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions. Human influence has been detected in the warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, changes in the water cycle, reductions in snow and ice, global mean sea level rise, and changes in climate extremes. The largest contribution to the increase in the anthropogenic radiative forcing was by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750. It led to more than half of global warming since the 1950s (with 95 % confidence). It is predicted using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that the global mean surface temperature will continue to rise for the end of this century, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and heavy precipitation will increase, and precipitation will present a trend of "the dry becomes drier, the wet becomes wetter". The temperature of the upper ocean will increase by 0.6 to 2.0℃ compared to the period of 1986 to 2005, heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean which will affect ocean circulation, and sea level will rise by 0.26 to 0.82 m in 2100. Cryosphere will continue to warm. To control global warming, humans need to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. If the increase in temperature is higher than 2℃ than before industrialization, the mean annual economic losses worldwide will reach 0.2% to 2.0% of income, and cause large-scale irreversible effects, including death, disease, food insecurity, inland flooding and water logging, and rural drinking water and irrigation difficulties that affect human security. If taking prompt actions, however, it is still possible to limit the increase in temperature within 2℃. To curb the gradually out-of-control global warming and achieve the goal of sustainable development of the human society, global efforts to reduce emissions are needed.
气候变化科学与人类可持续发展
Action pathways for transforming cities
DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0267-x URL [本文引用: 1]
Frontier issues on climate change science for supporting Future Earth
支撑“未来地球”计划的气候变化科学前沿问题
Geology of mankind//Paul J. Crutzen: A Pioneer on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change in the Anthropocene
The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene
The geography of biodiversity change in marine and terrestrial assemblages
DOI:10.1126/science.aaw1620
PMID:31624208
[本文引用: 1]
Human activities are fundamentally altering biodiversity. Projections of declines at the global scale are contrasted by highly variable trends at local scales, suggesting that biodiversity change may be spatially structured. Here, we examined spatial variation in species richness and composition change using more than 50,000 biodiversity time series from 239 studies and found clear geographic variation in biodiversity change. Rapid compositional change is prevalent, with marine biomes exceeding and terrestrial biomes trailing the overall trend. Assemblage richness is not changing on average, although locations exhibiting increasing and decreasing trends of up to about 20% per year were found in some marine studies. At local scales, widespread compositional reorganization is most often decoupled from richness change, and biodiversity change is strongest and most variable in the oceans.Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
Introduction: The anthropocene: A new epoch of geological time?
Comprehensive evaluation and the driving factors of China's urbanization
中国城市化水平的综合测度及其动力因子分析
Contrasting impacts of urban forms on the future thermal environment: Example of Beijing metropolitan area
Assessing the impacts of climate change in cities and their adaptive capacity: Towards transformative approaches to climate change adaptation and poverty reduction in urban areas in a set of developing countries
DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.227 URL [本文引用: 1]
Double exposure: Assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization
DOI:10.1016/S0959-3780(00)00021-2 URL [本文引用: 1]
Climate change adaptation in urban areas. Case study for the Tineretului area in Bucharest
DOI:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.11.146 URL [本文引用: 1]
A simulation-optimization methodology to model urban catchments under non-stationary extreme rainfall events
"Sponge City" in China: A breakthrough of planning and flood risk management in the urban context
DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.03.005 URL [本文引用: 1]
Urban water management and climate change adaptation: A self-assessment study by seven midsize cities in the North Sea Region
Analysis of retro-reflective surfaces for urban heat island mitigation: A new analytical model
DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.10.038 URL [本文引用: 1]
Does compact development make people drive less?
DOI:10.1080/01944363.2016.1240044 URL [本文引用: 1]
Evaluation of Chinese urban compactness
中国城市化发展的紧凑度评价分析
Assess the effect of different degrees of urbanization on land surface temperature using remote sensing images
DOI:10.1016/j.proenv.2012.01.087 URL [本文引用: 2]
Impacts of landscape structure on surface urban heat Islands: A case study of Shanghai, China
DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2011.07.008 URL [本文引用: 1]
Mapping an urban ecosystem service: Quantifying above-ground carbon storage at a city-wide scale
DOI:10.1111/jpe.2011.48.issue-5 URL [本文引用: 1]
Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: A review
DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.01.018
PMID:21334133
[本文引用: 1]
Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge.Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bioretention technology: Overview of current practice and future needs
DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2009)135:3(109) URL [本文引用: 1]
Simulated CO2 emissions from 2016-2060 with comparison to INDCs for EU, US, China and India
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201801001
[本文引用: 1]
Examining the CO2 emissions by country in the future whether the mitigation plans are implemented or not, as well as their comparison with INDCs, is important to promote the ambition and cooperation on global long-term goal of climate change. A dynamic model of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion is established based on statistical analysis between economy and energy development using the latest data from the World Bank and International Energy Agency. Extending and planning scenarios are designed according to whether there exist additional and explicit efforts to mitigate climate change. Then annual CO2 emissions during 2016-2060 for the European Union, the United States, China and India are simulated and compared with INDCs respectively, from which three main conclusions are derived. (1) In planning scenario China will achieve its INDCs. For detail, the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in China will be 63.6% lower than the level of 2005 and the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption will increase to 24.7%. Besides, China will reach the emission peak 11277±643 Mt CO2 in 2030, which is 10 years earlier and almost 3000 Mt CO2 lower than the peak of extending scenario. (2) In planning scenario, the CO2 emissions of EU and US will significantly decrease and the growth rate of India will slow down, which makes EU and India achieve their INDCs likely but US still has a gap around 300 Mt CO2. (3) INDCs are ambitious for all countries, especially for China and US. However, making further efforts on global warming mitigation to control the temperature rise below 2 ℃ or even 1.5 ℃, which requires the developed countries to play an important role on policy, technique and finance, including promoting carbon capture and storage technique, achieving negative growth of CO2 emissions, and providing support for developing countries.
2016—2060年欧美中印CO2排放变化模拟及其与INDCs的比较
Cities: The core of climate change mitigation
DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.034 URL [本文引用: 1]
Ecological Footprint assessment for targeting climate change mitigation in cities: A case study of 15 Canadian cities according to census metropolitan areas
DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.189 URL [本文引用: 2]
Urban and transport planning, environmental exposures and health-new concepts, methods and tools to improve health in cities
Car free cities: Pathway to healthy urban living
DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2016.05.032 URL [本文引用: 1]
Mitigating climate change through green buildings and smart growth
DOI:10.1068/a38419 URL [本文引用: 1]
Research progress and scientific issues in the field of urbanization
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201504002
[本文引用: 1]
In 2014, the "National New Urbanization Planning" was issued, which indicates that China's urbanization has entered into a transition period from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement". New urbanization will be an important work for the future China in quite a long period of time, which provides a significant opportunity for urbanization field research. This paper gives a general review on the domestic and foreign research progress in time. Internationally, the basic theory and theoretical system of urbanization have come into being. They have been enriched gradually with the deepening of the research. The research field has been expanded. The research methods have been improved. As for China's urbanization research, it developed fast despite a late start, and has made remarkable achievements in many fields, such as the scientific cognition and thoughts of a reasonable urbanization process with Chinese characteristics. In the future, five front scientific issues and their sub-issues in urbanization research have been put forward, such as the interdisciplinary features of urbanization and the establishment of urbanization discipline; the concept, principle, and method of the construction of urbanization basic theoretical system; the regional characteristics of urbanization and relationships between urban and rural integration; the developing model and spatial pattern research of sustainable development; the integration research and simulation platform of urbanization system based on the big data.
城市化领域的研究进展和科学问题
Geography: From knowledge, science to decision making support
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201711001
[本文引用: 1]
Geography is a subject to explore spatial distribution, time evolution and regional characteristics of geographical elements or geographical complexes. Geography is unique in bridging social sciences and natural sciences, and has characteristics of comprehensiveness, interdisciplinary research and regionalism. With the development of geographical science technology and research methods, geography is in the gorgeous historical process towards geographical science. Research themes of geography are focusing on the comprehensive research on the earth surface. The research paradigms of geography are shifting from geography knowledge description, coupling pattern and process, to the simulation and prediction of complex human and earth system. The development of Chinese geography needs to be rooted in the major needs of national strategy, and plays important roles in the studies of urbanization development, coupling ecological processes and services, water resources management and geopolitics. Under the country's major needs, China's geography tends to achieve the geography theory innovation, new method and technology application and developed disciplinary system with Chinese characteristics, and make more contribution to national and global sustainable development.
地理学:从知识、科学到决策
