宋广文
, 肖露子, 龙冬平
SONG Guangwen, XIAO Luzi, LONG Dongping
通讯作者:
收稿日期: 2016-06-25
修回日期: 2017-01-2
网络出版日期: 2017-02-15
版权声明: 2017 《地理学报》编辑部 本文是开放获取期刊文献，在以下情况下可以自由使用：学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等，但不允许用于商业目的.
基金资助:
作者简介:
作者简介：宋广文(1991-), 男, 广东廉江人, 博士生, 主要从事城市犯罪和城市地理研究。E-mail: songgwen@126.com
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摘要
扒窃现象与居民的日常活动有较强的关系,已有文献研究了不同活动场所对扒窃的影响,但鲜有考虑不同类型居民活动出行量及其场所对扒窃影响的时间差异。本文基于日常活动理论,以南方某大城市为例,以派出所为分析单元,利用居民入户调查问卷、兴趣点（Point of Interest, POI）、扒窃报警数据,检验不同类型活动出行量与扒窃的时间相关性,并划分时间段,建立多个空间滞后负二项回归模型分析不同时段居民日常活动对应场所与扒窃的关系。研究发现,扒窃警情存在明显的时空集聚性,其中,凌晨和早上的集聚性最强,白天和晚上相对较弱;不同类型的日常活动对扒窃时空格局的作用存在差异。买菜活动出行量与扒窃的时间变化存在正相关关系,买菜场所在凌晨和早上容易吸引扒窃者;购物活动与扒窃亦存在较强的时间正相关,白天和晚上在购物场所附近被盗的风险较高;外出吃饭的出行量与扒窃行为无直接关系,但在凌晨和早上餐馆周边容易吸引扒窃者;娱乐活动与扒窃同样存在较强的时间正相关,不同类型的娱乐场所对扒窃的影响存在差异,电影院、酒吧在大部分时间段均会吸引犯罪者,凌晨时段KTV附近区域的被盗风险较高。场所对扒窃的影响主要与犯罪机会吸引（犯罪目标的丰富性、暴露性）及场所自身属性有关（是否为犯罪者的集聚地）。文中最后对时间地理学和犯罪地理学结合的可能性、研究的应用意义等方面进行了探讨。
关键词：
Abstract
Theft from person (TFP) is one of the most common crimes in China. It is assumed that TFP is the result of interaction among motivated offenders, suitable targets and guardians. Specific routine activities and places can be important indicators for the TFPs. However, few studies can focus on the time differentiation of relationship between citizens' daily activities and TFPs. This study aims to narrow this gap by uncovering the time relationship between citizens' activities and TFPs, as well as the impacts of specific facilities on TFPs. Using the data of TFPs from the police, the sixth national census, facilities addresses and citizens activities log in a big city in south China, the whole day is divided into four stages (before dawn: 23:00-6:59, morning: 7:00-9:59, daytime: 10:00-17:59, night: 18:00-22:59). Spatial lag negative binomial regression models are built for the four stages accordingly. We find that the spatial and temporal aggregation of TFP is obvious for all the stages. Activities for buying food, shopping and entertainment are positively related to TFP while activity of dining out has no significant relationship with it. Besides, key factors that impact TFP vary from stage to stage. Before dawn, entertainment facilities, restaurants and food markets have positive influence on TFP. In the morning, the existence of food market, bus stations, restaurants and some entertainment facilities (cinema and net-bar) will improve the risks of TFP. In the daytime, subways, shops for daily supplement, some entertainment facilities (cinema, bar and net bar) have positive effect on TFP. At night, subway stations, shops, bars and net bars will increase the risk of TFP. In addition, possibility of combination of time geography and crime geography and its application are discussed in this study.
Keywords：
随着城市化进程的不断推进,城市面临的管理问题日益复杂,其中犯罪现象不仅影响经济生产活动的有序进行,还影响到社会的稳定和可持续发展。当下,城市的各类设施日益完善,人与人、人与场所的交互越来越复杂,如何将人的活动、城市设施与犯罪现象关联,寻找有效的犯罪防控方案,成为学界和业界共同关注的焦点。公共场所的随身财物被盗（简称“扒窃”）是国内较常见的犯罪类型,与市民的生活息息相关,因此,本文以扒窃为研究对象,围绕其与居民日常活动的关系进行分析。
扒窃是财产犯罪的一种,它与其他类型的财产犯罪研究存在一定的共性。目前犯罪地理此方面的研究主要围绕其时空特征及形成机理展开。犯罪的时空集聚性在国内外的研究中均得到了证明[1-6]。在犯罪格局形成的机理方面,社会解组理论和日常活动理论的应用较多,其中,社会解组理论侧重社会环境对犯罪的影响,日常活动理论则强调犯罪是犯罪分子、潜在目标和监管力量在特定空间或场所互动的结果,且往往与特定的物理环境相关联[7-8]。在国内的研究中,社会环境主要指年轻人数量、外来人口比率、就业情况等,物理环境则指具体的设施或土地利用,如该区域是否是大型的商业中心、是否有火车站等。研究认为,年轻人数量和外来人口比率对犯罪有积极的影响;商业发达的区域或火车站周边人流量较大,容易给犯罪者提供机会[9-10]。
在国外,社会环境则主要考虑种族差异、单亲家庭、贫困等因素,物理环境相关的要素较广泛,包括学校、酒吧、便利店、公共交通站点、贩酒店、公园、不同的商店类型等[11-14]。这些场所作为人们户外日常活动的载体,其内部及周边区域集聚了较大量的人流[15],给犯罪者提供了寻找合适目标者的机会,增大了犯罪发生的风险。根据对犯罪影响的特点,场所被分成犯罪产生地（generators）和犯罪吸引地（attractors）,前者是指该场所集聚了大量不同的人群,既包括潜在的犯罪者（potential offender）也包括潜在的目标;而后者则是指场所吸引了有动机及能力的犯罪者（motivated offender）[12, 16-19]。用场所代表居民活动,再进一步验证其与犯罪关系的文献较丰富。例如,Cohen等[20]在分析美国1947-1974年犯罪率变化时发现社会结构的变化会导致活动空间的差异,户外活动的增加会使犯罪机会增多,导致犯罪率的增加;Messner等[21]基于124个标准大都市统计区（SMSAs）的数据,实证了日常休闲活动和犯罪率的关系,他用电视普及率代表在室内的休闲活动,用周边的休闲娱乐设施代表外出的活动量,对入室盗窃、扒窃、抢劫、殴打他人等犯罪类型进行了分析,结果发现,在家内的休闲活动对以上四大犯罪类型均有抑制作用,而在外的休闲活动将导致犯罪的增加。
可见,人们的日常活动对犯罪有重要的影响,相比于社会解组理论,强调犯罪者和受害者在特定时空条件下互动的日常活动理论能更好地解释扒窃等街头犯罪[22-25]。犯罪者、受害者、场所的营业时间均具有明显的时间约束,不同人群的互动需满足相应的时空间条件[26-29],时间在犯罪机理的分析中有重要的作用。但已有的分析主要着眼于场所对犯罪的影响,重点研究了犯罪发生的空间条件,对时间的考虑较弱。
近些年,部分学者开始认识到时间在分析人们日常活动与犯罪关系中的重要性。Ratcliffe在2006年即借助时间地理学的概念,将Miller的时空棱柱等方法拓展至对犯罪者行为的分析,在理论上证明了时间约束和犯罪者的活动节点共同影响了财产犯罪的时空格局[30];随后,其在2015年根据对美国人时间使用的调查,将一天划为4个时间段对费城街头抢劫进行研究,发现银行、小商店和非法市场在各个时间段均对犯罪有正向的影响,地铁站、学校、社区公园对犯罪的影响则存在时间波动性,其他设施则始终对犯罪没有影响[31]。此研究很好地揭示了时间在犯罪分析中的重要性,但并没有结合人们不同活动出行的特点进行分析,且仅讨论了场所对暴力犯罪的影响,缺乏对财产犯罪的探讨。
综上,现有国内外文献的主要论点和不足如下：① 时间在各类犯罪分析中的重要性开始受到重视[31-34],但是尚没有研究能考虑居民活动对扒窃影响的时间差异;② 已有研究认为人们的日常活动对扒窃有影响,但缺乏对不同类型活动对犯罪影响差异的探讨。因此,本文基于日常活动理论,结合居民的活动日志调查数据与警务数据,以派出所为研究单元,探讨不同居民活动类型规律及其场所对扒窃影响的时间差异。
本文的数据来源包括公安接警数据、居民出行调查数据、场所设施的地理数据及人口普查数据。接警数据由南方某大城市公安局提供,包括该城市城区2013年的扒窃警情数据及相应的派出所边界图层（183个城区派出所)。居民出行数据来自2013年4-6月对该市城区居民日常出行活动进行的入户问卷调查。该调查先通过对街道的六普数据进行因子分析,提取主成分并进行聚类,识别出四种典型类型街道;在此基础上,考虑调查社区的空间均衡性,选择城区内18个典型社区进行调查。问卷调查回收有效问卷1604份,调查内容主要包括居民的个人属性、家庭属性、工作日与周末的活动日志调查,记录了居民24小时的活动情况,包括出行目的、出发时间和交通方式等信息。
场所设施的地理数据来源于地图公司的2014年导航数据,包括不同商业类型设施、公交站、地铁站等。在该城市,派出所一般由2~5个社区组成,因此,通过图层叠加分析,将社区数据汇总到派出所,并以派出所为单位计算其包含的年轻人数目及外来人口比率,作为本文的控制变量。
扒窃警情是指发生在公共场所（不包括交通工具）的随身财物被盗,是典型的接触式犯罪,事主失窃后一般会迅速报警,因此,此类警情的时间和空间精度较高。本文先识别扒窃的时空格局,划分不同时段总结扒窃的特点,接着对扒窃与居民活动的时间相关性进行分析,在定性讨论的基础上,选择相应设施代表居民出行的目的场所,建立两者关系的空间滞后负二项回归模型,定量讨论居民活动场所对扒窃的影响。
2.2.1 模型选取 对因变量（派出所扒窃警情数量）进行分析发现,其最小值为6,最大值为1758,平均值为520.36,方差为153901.91,偏度为1.163,数据分布的偏态性明显,且方差远远大于平均值,具有过度离散的特征,显然不满足线性回归模型对因变量正态分布的要求。对于计数变量,泊松回归、负二项回归模型更为合理[35-36]。负二项模型比泊松模型更为常见,因为它允许存在过度离散性,即泊松回归要求因变量均值与方差的比值接近1,对过离散变量（方差远大于均值）的拟合效果不大理想,而负二项回归模型对于过离散变量具有更好的评价效果[37]。负二项分布是一个连续的混合泊松分布,y的边际分布就是一个具有闭合形式的泊松—伽马混合分布,它们的概率密度函数是：
式中：Г是一个伽马积分,它设定了积分参数的阶乘;μ=E（y),α是伽马分布的方差参数,当α趋向于0时（没有过度离散),负二项模型就变成了泊松模型。模型解释变量的边际效应称为发生率比IRR（Incidence Rate Ratio),其表示当某解释变量增加一单位时,事件平均发生的次数将是原来的多少倍。
此外,经计算,本文因变量的Moran's I均在0.01的显著水平下大于0,存在显著的空间自相关,选取的模型应能消除空间自相关的干扰,若否,模型的残差将具有明显的空间相关,导致错误的参数估计[31, 38]。空间滞后模型是解决空间自相关问题较常用的方法,它可通过考虑研究单元周边区域的情况降低空间自相关对模型拟合的影响,可选取一定范围内研究单元因变量的平均值代表空间滞后的影响。因此,本文用周边派出所警情的平均值代表某派出所的空间滞后变量,采用空间滞后负二项回归模型对居民日常活动场所与扒窃的关系进行分析。
2.2.2 自变量选取 本文重点研究居民活动、相应场所与扒窃的关系,已有研究表明,扒窃的发生离不开所处的社会环境、交通便利程度[9-11],因此,本文的解释变量中将社会环境及交通设施作为控制条件,即派出所内的年轻人数量、外来人口比率、公交站数、地铁站数作为控制变量。
居民活动场所方面,依据居民出行目的选择相应的场所设施。本次问卷调查了居民的出行目的,记录了每一类活动的出发时间、交通方式、到达时间等,各类活动占比分别为上班（37%）、买菜（20%)、外出吃饭（19%）、娱乐（10%）、购物（9%）、其他（5%,探亲访友等）。由于上班的地点范围较广,较难用特定的场所衡量该行为,故主要考虑买菜、外出吃饭、娱乐、购物四大类活动的场所与扒窃的关系。选取综合市场（菜市场）代表买菜场所;选取纺织服装、日用百货类商店代表购物场所;娱乐场所则用影剧院、KTV、酒吧、网吧代表;以餐馆代表外出吃饭的场所。
先对因变量与自变量进行相关系数矩阵、多元线性回归等探索性分析,对自变量进行共线性检验。处理过程发现,餐馆与娱乐设施、公交站的相关系数大于0.6,因此将各派出所餐饮设施的数量与1相加后再取对数。处理后,自变量的VIF最大值为2.44,变量间的相关系数均小于0.6,说明各变量间没有明显的共线性,可同时用于模型分析。
扒窃数量随时间变化明显,结合数据情况及前人的研究[31, 39],根据扒窃规律将一天划分为4个时间段：凌晨低发期（凌晨）23:00-6:59、早上快速增加期（早上）7:00-9:59、白天稳定期（白天）10:00-17:59、晚上消散期（晚上）18:00-22:59。可以看到,23:00-次日6:59警情量相对较小;7:00点后扒窃量开始显著增加,到10:00点时达到第一个峰值;10:00-17:59点警情量处于高位稳定;18:00-23:00点警情量开始逐步下降（图1）。
居民日常活动场所与不同时段派出所扒窃数量的空间关系如图2所示。从图2a、2b中可以看到,居民日常活动场所核密度与派出所扒窃总量的随机点分布格局较相似,两者存在较强的空间相关。日常活动设施、扒窃数量整体上呈以F2单元格为支点,沿南北向、东边延伸的格局,其中F2、F3、F4、G2、E3、B5等单元格的扒窃分布较密集。对比图2c~2f扒窃的各个时段在空间分布的变化,在凌晨和早上时段,扒窃与活动场所的分布相关性较弱,扒窃在空间的分布相对集中,全局Moran's I 值分别为0.193、0.092;白天和晚上时段,扒窃的分布相对离散（全局Moran's I 值分别为0.070、0.061),但其与场所的空间分布格局接近。
图2 居民日常活动场所核密度及不同时段派出所扒窃数量的随机分布点(网格非研究单元边界)
Fig. 2 Kernel density of facilities and random point distribution of the thefts from person in the police stations (The fishnet is not the boundary of study units)
定性的分析表明居民的日常活动与扒窃存在较强的关联,场所作为居民活动与扒窃活动的空间载体、居民与犯罪者相遇的节点,对扒窃的时空格局有重要的影响。
各类居民活动的时间变化如图3所示。居民的日常活动亦存在较强的时间规律：买菜行为存在双峰现象,峰值分别出现在9:00点和17:00点;外出吃饭时间主要集中在中午,12点出发的样本数量最大,18:00点也是一个小高峰;娱乐的活动量相对较小,3个峰值分别出现在9:00点、14:00点和19:00点;购物出发时间的峰值在10:00点和14:00点,晚上出发购物的比例较低。
进一步计算各大居民活动出行量与扒窃的时间相关系数,发现居民户外活动的总出发量与扒窃的相关系数为0.610,两者关联度较大,此外,仅有上班、外出吃饭的出行量与扒窃不相关,娱乐、购物、买菜的出行量与扒窃均在0.05的显著水平下相关,相关系数分别为0.738、0.578、0.557,其中,娱乐活动与扒窃的相关系数最强。
不同的活动类型与扒窃的相关性存在较大的差异,它们的内在关系需进一步探讨。本文选取典型场所代表各大类型的日常活动,建立空间滞后负二项回归,进一步分析居民活动与扒窃的关系。
作为对照,本文先进行了线性回归分析,发现整体模型、凌晨、早上、白天、晚上五大模型的调整R2分别为0.783、0.720、0.759、0.734、0.764,模型拟合度较高,一定程度上反映了居民日常活动场所对扒窃的重要影响。在此基础上,建立空间滞后负二项回归模型进行分析。从表2可以看到,各个模型的α值在0.05的水平下显著大于0,说明使用负二项回归比泊松回归更合理。在各大模型中,扒窃的空间滞后值均对扒窃有显著的正向影响,说明周边派出所扒窃现象的高发会使中心派出所的扒窃量增加,同时也表明使用空间滞后回归模型的合理性。
表1 不同居民活动类型与扒窃的关系
Tab. 1 Correlation coefficient between daily activities and thefts from person
| 相关系数 | |
|---|---|
| 上班 | - |
| 买菜 | 0.557** |
| 购物 | 0.578** |
| 外出吃饭 | - |
| 娱乐 | 0.738** |
| 外出活动总量 | 0.610** |
表2 不同时段各大场所对扒窃警情影响的空间滞后负二项回归结果
Tab. 2 Spatial-lag negative binomial regression results for effects of daily activities on the thefts from person
| 变量类型 | 变量 | 总量模型 | 凌晨 | 早上 | 白天 | 晚上 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00-6:59 | 7:00-9:59 | 10:00-17:59 | 18:00-22:59 | |||||||||||
| b | IRR | b | IRR | b | IRR | b | IRR | b | IRR | |||||
| 常数 | 7.744*** | 114.893 | 1.558*** | 4.749 | 2.032*** | 7.629 | 4.379*** | 79.758 | 2.955*** | 19.202 | ||||
| 社会因素 | 年轻人 | 0.000*** | 1.000 | 0.000*** | 1.000 | 0.000* | 1.000 | 0.000*** | 1.000 | 0.000*** | 1.000 | |||
| 外来人口比率 | 0.108 | 1.114 | 0.413* | 1.511 | 0.666*** | 1.946 | 0.100 | 1.105 | -0.238 | 0.788 | ||||
| 公共交通 | 公交 | 0.001 | 1.001 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.003*** | 1.003 | 0.001 | 1.001 | -0.001 | 0.999 | |||
| 地铁 | 0.114** | 1.121 | 0.052 | 1.054 | 0.031 | 1.032 | 0.119** | 1.126 | 0.129** | 1.138 | ||||
| 买菜 | 综合市场 | 0.012 | 1.012 | 0.014* | 1.014 | 0.018** | 1.017 | 0.015 | 1.015 | 0.003 | 1.003 | |||
| 购物 | 购物场所 | 0.001** | 1.001 | -0.000 | 1.000 | -0.000 | 1.000 | 0.001*** | 1.001 | 0.001** | 1.001 | |||
| 外出吃饭 | 餐馆对数 | 0.027 | 1.027 | 0.283*** | 1.327 | 0.222** | 1.249 | -0.077 | 0.926 | 0.145 | 1.156 | |||
| 娱乐 | KTV | 0.019 | 1.019 | 0.020* | 1.020 | 0.009 | 1.009 | 0.018 | 1.019 | 0.023 | 1.023 | |||
| 电影院 | 0.094*** | 1.099 | 0.115** | 1.122 | 0.086** | 1.090 | 0.106*** | 1.112 | 0.079 | 1.082 | ||||
| 酒吧 | 0.031** | 1.032 | 0.029** | 1.030 | 0.009 | 1.009 | 0.028* | 1.029 | 0.043*** | 1.044 | ||||
| 网吧 | 0.036*** | 1.036 | 0.034*** | 1.034 | 0.030*** | 1.030 | 0.037*** | 1.038 | 0.039*** | 1.040 | ||||
| 空间滞后变量 | Lag_扒窃 | 0.001*** | 1.001 | 0.003* | 1.003 | 0.002** | 1.002 | 0.001*** | 1.001 | 0.003*** | 1.003 | |||
| α | 0.251*** | 0.178*** | 0.167*** | 0.285*** | 0.281*** | |||||||||
| Moran's I | 0.077*** | 0.092*** | 0.193*** | 0.061*** | 0.070*** | |||||||||
4.2.1 日常活动场所对扒窃整体情况的影响 从整体来看（表2）,社会因素方面,年轻人数量的增加会导致该派出所扒窃数量的增加,而外来人口比率与扒窃数量无关;在居民日常活动场所方面,购物场所、电影院、酒吧、网吧、地铁对扒窃呈现正向的影响,而综合市场、餐馆、KTV、公交的影响不显著。对比不同场所设施的IRR系数发现,假设其他变量不变,地铁站的边际作用最大,某区域的派出所增加一个地铁站,扒窃将增加12.1%;电影的边际影响次之,增加一个单位的电影院,扒窃将增加9.9%;网吧、酒吧、购物场所的边际影响最小,其每增加一个单位,扒窃分别增加3.6%、3.2%、0.1%。
4.2.2 控制变量及不同活动场所对扒窃影响的时间差异 社会因素方面,外来人口比率在凌晨和早上对扒窃有正向的显著影响,从IRR系数可以看出,每增加一个单位,扒窃将会增加51.1%和94.6%;年轻人数目在各个时间段对扒窃警情均有正向的影响。交通设施方面,公交仅在早上对犯罪有影响,在其他时间段没有影响;地铁在白天和晚上对扒窃警情均有影响。公共交通对扒窃警情影响的时间差异可能意味着在犯罪分子选择出行的交通工具随时间而变化。
活动场所方面,代表不同类型行为的场所对扒窃影响的时间差异明显。
（1）买菜场所（综合市场）
买菜场所在凌晨和早上发生扒窃的风险较大,白天和晚上则与扒窃的关系不显著;派出所辖区内每增加一个综合市场,凌晨的扒窃量增加约1.4%,早上约增加1.7%。凌晨和早上买菜的人流量集中,此时段扒窃者亦需要买菜,综合市场成为扒窃者早上和凌晨活动的关键节点,因此导致在综合市场被盗风险增大。在白天和晚上,犯罪分子多外出活动,同时居民的买菜行为较分散,综合市场人流密度较低,犯罪机会少,此时段综合市场对扒窃的影响不显著。
（2）购物场所
购物场所在白天和晚上会增加周边区域的扒窃风险;在凌晨和早上,对扒窃的影响不显著。派出所每增加一个购物场所,白天和晚上的扒窃数量将增加0.1%。人们在白天和晚上购物的比例较大,较大的人流量给犯罪者提供了较多的犯罪机会,购物场所对扒窃影响的时间段与居民购物行为高峰时间段一致。在凌晨和早上,该类场所大部分仍未营业,对扒窃没有影响。
（3）外出吃饭场所（餐馆）
外出吃饭场所（餐馆）在凌晨和早上,对扒窃呈正向的影响,其他时间段与扒窃的关系不显著。餐馆数的对数值每增加一个单位,凌晨和早上的扒窃量分别增加32.7%、24.9%。白天和晚上是人们外出吃饭的高峰期,但餐馆的影响并不显著,说明外出吃饭活动量与扒窃没有关系;凌晨虽然营业的餐馆相对少,但居民的防范意识下降,目标群体暴露明显,餐馆周边的扒窃风险较高;在早上,餐馆周边集聚较多的人群,给犯罪者提供了较多选择机会。可见,餐馆对扒窃的影响与居民活动量并不呈正相关关系,它与不同时段居民的精神状态、场所人流暴露度等因素有关。
（4）娱乐场所（KTV、电影院、酒吧、网吧）
不同的娱乐场所对扒窃的影响存在差异。KTV仅在凌晨时段对犯罪有影响,每增加一个KTV,在该时段将增加2%的扒窃。在凌晨,KTV目标群体暴露明显,较容易吸引犯罪者;在早上时间段,KTV大部分还未营业,在下午和晚上虽已营业,但人流相对较少,犯罪分子可供选择的目标较少。电影院在凌晨、早上及白天时间段均有正向的影响,每增加一个电影院将导致各大时间段派出所的扒窃数量增加12.2%（凌晨）、9.0%（早上）、11.2%（白天）;电影院的观众在特定时间段较集中（影片开始前和结合后）,人员的密集分布容易导致监管的缺失,增大扒窃发生的风险。
酒吧在营业的时间段（凌晨、白天、晚上）均对扒窃有正向的影响,每增加一个酒吧,将使派出所凌晨的警情增加3.0%,白天增加2.9%,晚上增加4.4%。酒吧顾客的财物较暴露,而且酒吧容易降低人员对环境的敏感性,给犯罪分子提供作案的机会。此外,酒吧周边易聚集一些社会闲散人员和危险分子,酒后的人尤其是未成年人相对容易冲动犯罪,导致酒吧周边成为犯罪高发区域。网吧在各个时间段均会导致扒窃警情的增加,在凌晨,每增加一个网吧,扒窃数量将增加3.4%,在早上、白天、晚上时段将分别增加3.0%、3.8%、4.0%。网吧聚集了较多的社会青年,且受网络信息、网络游戏等复杂因素的影响,部分人员容易成为犯罪者,有研究表明与网吧有关的违法犯罪,主要以侵财型为主,作案者手段简单,随意性大,因此导致网吧周边的扒窃风险较高。
通过进行居民日常活动与扒窃的时间相关性分析和日常活动场所对扒窃影响的回归分析发现,两种方法的结论基本一致（表3）。购物和娱乐的时间相关性以及其在总量模型中的显著度均表明此购物行为、娱乐行为与扒窃风险存在较强的正相关;外出吃饭及其场所在整体上对扒窃的影响不显著。买菜行为与扒窃的时间相关性显著,买菜场所在总量模型中对扒窃无显著影响,但值得注意的是,在凌晨和早上,其对扒窃呈正向影响。此两种方法结论的相近表明用相应的场所代表居民的日常活动较合理。
表3 活动类型及主要活动场所对扒窃警情影响结果的对比
Tab. 3 Comparison of activities and places' effects on the thefts from person
| 活动类型 | 活动相关性 | 活动对应的 场所变量 | 总量 模型 | 凌晨 | 早上 | 白天 | 晚上 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00-6:59 | 7:00-9:59 | 10:00-17:59 | 18:00-22:59 | ||||
| 买菜 | + | 综合市场 | ns | + | + | ns | ns |
| 购物 | + | 服装日用 | + | ns | ns | + | + |
| 外出吃饭 | ns | 餐馆对数 | ns | + | + | ns | ns |
| 娱乐 | + | KTV | ns | + | ns | ns | ns |
| 电影院 | + | + | + | + | ns | ||
| 酒吧 | + | + | ns | + | + | ||
| 网吧 | + | + | + | + | + |
实证分析表明不同类型活动及其场所对扒窃的影响存在差异。整体而言,居民活动量与扒窃数量存在较强的相关性,例如买菜、购物和娱乐行为的居民出行量与扒窃的关系较大。但外出吃饭的活动量与扒窃行为无直接关系,餐馆对扒窃的影响主要体现在凌晨和早上,居民活动量较少的时候。娱乐行为的活动量与扒窃存在较强的正相关,但不同类别的娱乐活动与扒窃的时间关系存在较大的差异。酒吧在营业时间（早上以外的时间段）均对扒窃有影响,活跃于酒吧的群体往往随身带的财物较多,容易吸引犯罪者的关注;KTV则仅在凌晨对扒窃有影响,KTV的营业时间较晚,提高潜在受害者的暴露度,从而吸引了犯罪者;网吧作为部分社会青年较喜好的休闲场所,是犯罪者的滋生地或者活动地之一,导致其周边成为犯罪高风险区域。
居民活动及其场所对扒窃的影响机制可以总结为两大类：一是居民行为及其场所提供了较丰富、明显的犯罪目标,目标的丰富性和暴露性（犯罪机会较多）引起了犯罪者的关注[12, 40]。综合市场、购物场所、影院、酒吧的人员密集,随身财物较多,丰富犯罪目标给犯罪者提供了较多的作案机会;餐馆、KTV仅在居民活动的非活跃期（凌晨或早上）对扒窃有影响,此阶段,大部分场所已停止营业或尚未开业,餐馆、KTV对客流吸引的时间特点增大了犯罪目标的暴露性,导致该场所附近的犯罪风险较高。二是某类场所附近集聚了较多的潜在犯罪者,邻近犯罪者活动地被扒窃的风险较高。例如网吧在各大时段均会使周边区域的扒窃风险增加,可能因为部分的网吧使用者是潜在犯罪者。
本文从日常活动理论的视角出发,对扒窃警情的时空格局及其与居民活动的时空关系进行探究。研究发现,扒窃的时空集聚性明显,居民的日常活动对扒窃的影响较大,但不同类型活动的活动量及其载体（场所）对扒窃的影响存在差异。主要有以下结论：
（1）各大时段扒窃警情的分布均存在明显的空间集聚性,凌晨和早上的空间集聚性最强,白天和晚上相对较弱;扒窃警情总量与居民活动场所的空间分布形态相似。
（2）买菜、购物、娱乐行为的居民出行量与扒窃的关系较大,居民此类活动量的增加会吸引扒窃者的注意,但不同类别的娱乐活动与扒窃的时间关系存在较大的差异;外出吃饭的活动量与扒窃行为无直接关系。
（3）不同类型活动场所对扒窃的作用的时间段存在差异。凌晨和早上的买菜场所（综合市场）及外出吃饭场所（餐馆）容易吸引扒窃者;白天和晚上在购物场所附近区域被盗的风险较高;不同类型的娱乐场所对扒窃的影响存在差异,电影院（晚上除外）、酒吧（早上除外）在大部分时间段均容易吸引犯罪者,凌晨时段KTV附近区域的被盗风险较高。
（4）不同类型场所对扒窃的作用机制存在差异。综合市场、购物场所、影院、酒吧提供了较丰富的犯罪目标而导致扒窃风险的增加;餐馆、KTV的影响则是由于提高了犯罪目标的暴露性;网吧由于其集聚了部分潜在犯罪者而会增加扒窃的风险。
总体而言,本文的结论与前人的研究存在共性,均认为居民活动与扒窃存在正相关关系,场所作为居民日常活动的载体集聚了较大的人流量而对扒窃产生影响。本文的创新和贡献主要体现在结合并细分居民活动类型及其场所在不同时间段对扒窃影响的差异,总结了不同时段、不同活动类型及场所与扒窃的关系,并指出并非所有的居民活动或场所均是通过人流量对扒窃起作用,还有可能通过场所对居民的暴露度及场所的属性来产生影响。
此外,本文进一步实证了时间地理学与犯罪地理学结合的可能性。犯罪行为本质上是人类行为的一种,犯罪的空间分布与地理要素的分布、人类活动的分布关系密切;时间地理学在研究人类行为方面已有相当多的理论积累和实证成果,将时间地理学与犯罪地理学相结合,将有利于犯罪研究的理论突破,使研究成果的应用意义更强。例如本结论既可为警力部署提供参考依据,根据场所对扒窃影响的时间规律,制定针对性的日常巡逻或热点警务方案,警察可在合适的时间段对容易产生犯罪的场所实施定点警卫;也可加强对犯罪规律的宣传提高居民防范意识。但本文也存在一定的不足。例如本次研究仅考虑了典型日常活动的影响,对其他活动类型的研究仍有待开展;代表某类活动的场所可能存在局限性,未能很全面地代表每一类活动等,这些问题仍需更深入的研究和探讨。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
| [1] |
The spatio-temporal patterns of street robbery in DP peninsula .https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201312011 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
选取H市中心城区DP半岛作为研究区域，以岛上2006-2011 年发生的街头抢劫案件（共373 起） 作为研究对象，将DP半岛内街头抢劫案件的时空分布特征分别从宏观和局部微观两个尺度层面进行系统的分析。首先，对岛上的街头抢劫案件按年、月和小时进行统计分析，总结其在不同时间尺度上的变化规律：2007 年开始的严打使案件数量逐年减少，直到2010 年才略有回升；春节期间（二月前后） 的案件数量明显高于其他月份；晚上22:00-23:00 期间是案件高发时段。其次，利用Kernel 密度方法对研究区街头抢劫犯罪的宏观空间分布进行整体的辨别，剥离出犯罪热点空间分布，分析热点与道路网和土地利用的关联性，结果表明热点多分布于主干道、通达性高的节点或土地利用混合度高的地方。最后，选出4 个最主要的热点从微观尺度进行分析，PAI 指数表明这4 个热点在时间上是稳定的，从2006 年到2011 年一直存在。依据“热点时空类型矩阵”的时间分布和空间分布模式，将这4 个稳定热点归类到不同微观时空模式，并对每类模式下的街头抢劫犯罪提出有针对性的防控对策，以便优化警力资源的配置、最大限度抑制和减少犯罪的发生。
DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式 .https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201312011 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
选取H市中心城区DP半岛作为研究区域，以岛上2006-2011 年发生的街头抢劫案件（共373 起） 作为研究对象，将DP半岛内街头抢劫案件的时空分布特征分别从宏观和局部微观两个尺度层面进行系统的分析。首先，对岛上的街头抢劫案件按年、月和小时进行统计分析，总结其在不同时间尺度上的变化规律：2007 年开始的严打使案件数量逐年减少，直到2010 年才略有回升；春节期间（二月前后） 的案件数量明显高于其他月份；晚上22:00-23:00 期间是案件高发时段。其次，利用Kernel 密度方法对研究区街头抢劫犯罪的宏观空间分布进行整体的辨别，剥离出犯罪热点空间分布，分析热点与道路网和土地利用的关联性，结果表明热点多分布于主干道、通达性高的节点或土地利用混合度高的地方。最后，选出4 个最主要的热点从微观尺度进行分析，PAI 指数表明这4 个热点在时间上是稳定的，从2006 年到2011 年一直存在。依据“热点时空类型矩阵”的时间分布和空间分布模式，将这4 个稳定热点归类到不同微观时空模式，并对每类模式下的街头抢劫犯罪提出有针对性的防控对策，以便优化警力资源的配置、最大限度抑制和减少犯罪的发生。
|
| [2] |
Research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and mechanism of urban crime: A case study of property crime in Beijing .https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201212006 URL Magsci 摘要
城市犯罪的时空模式是地理学“格局”和“过程”研究的重要课题。本文以北京城八 区财产类犯罪为研究对象,利用GIS工具获取和处理空间数据,探讨城市犯罪的时空格局和时 空模式,并建立时空机制模型。研究发现：北京城市犯罪总体上呈现多中心分布格局,在商 业繁华地带和对外交通运输区存在明显的高强度带；各种犯罪类型空间格局既有共同性又有 差异性；城市犯罪嫌疑人数量存在季节分异特点,但同一区域的犯罪地点数目具有一定的稳 定性；就时空机制而言,场所的时空特征作用于财产犯罪参与者,进而作用于犯罪要素并影 响犯罪实施成功与否,而不同类型的财产犯罪对场所时空特征要求不同,这些要求一旦与北 京城市环境的特有属性耦合,便产生犯罪高发地段和高发时段,最终影响城市空间结构特点。
城市犯罪时空特征与机制: 以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例 .https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201212006 URL Magsci 摘要
城市犯罪的时空模式是地理学“格局”和“过程”研究的重要课题。本文以北京城八 区财产类犯罪为研究对象,利用GIS工具获取和处理空间数据,探讨城市犯罪的时空格局和时 空模式,并建立时空机制模型。研究发现：北京城市犯罪总体上呈现多中心分布格局,在商 业繁华地带和对外交通运输区存在明显的高强度带；各种犯罪类型空间格局既有共同性又有 差异性；城市犯罪嫌疑人数量存在季节分异特点,但同一区域的犯罪地点数目具有一定的稳 定性；就时空机制而言,场所的时空特征作用于财产犯罪参与者,进而作用于犯罪要素并影 响犯罪实施成功与否,而不同类型的财产犯罪对场所时空特征要求不同,这些要求一旦与北 京城市环境的特有属性耦合,便产生犯罪高发地段和高发时段,最终影响城市空间结构特点。
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Study on the comprehensive treatment of spatial blind areas in urban crime .https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2010010006 URL Magsci 摘要
<p>综合治理城市犯罪的空间盲区,是解决城市犯罪问题的有效途径,其研究为城市规划、建设和管理有利于预防和控制犯罪,提供了新的理念与方法,为犯罪地理学和城市地理学开辟了一个新的研究领域。根据空间盲区的形态、性质和对犯罪的影响,将城市犯罪的空间盲区划分为公共、非公共、边际、移动和虚拟空间等5种类型。在述评国外城市犯罪空间研究进展的基础上,构建了城市犯罪空间盲区综合治理的理论平台,论证了空间盲区综合治理的不可替代性,提出了综合治理的基础理论要点和应用理论要点。空间盲区的形成有一系列深刻的空间区位因素,其综合治理研究应有明确的研究目标和方向,核心研究内容为5类空间盲区综合治理的途径、实施方案和措施。还提出了综合治理研究的思路、方法和关键技术。</p>
城市犯罪空间盲区的综合治理研究 .https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2010010006 URL Magsci 摘要
<p>综合治理城市犯罪的空间盲区,是解决城市犯罪问题的有效途径,其研究为城市规划、建设和管理有利于预防和控制犯罪,提供了新的理念与方法,为犯罪地理学和城市地理学开辟了一个新的研究领域。根据空间盲区的形态、性质和对犯罪的影响,将城市犯罪的空间盲区划分为公共、非公共、边际、移动和虚拟空间等5种类型。在述评国外城市犯罪空间研究进展的基础上,构建了城市犯罪空间盲区综合治理的理论平台,论证了空间盲区综合治理的不可替代性,提出了综合治理的基础理论要点和应用理论要点。空间盲区的形成有一系列深刻的空间区位因素,其综合治理研究应有明确的研究目标和方向,核心研究内容为5类空间盲区综合治理的途径、实施方案和措施。还提出了综合治理研究的思路、方法和关键技术。</p>
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Patterns of near-repeat street robbery in DP peninsula .https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201502017 Magsci 摘要
<p>以往研究已经证实某些特定的犯罪类型(如入室盗窃、枪击案件)存在临近重复发生的现象,但是街头抢劫案件是否也同样存在临近重复发生的现象则很少被关注。以H市中心城区DP半岛为研究区域,探索岛上街头抢劫案件的时空分布规律,研究对象为岛上2006-2011年发生的街头抢劫案件(共373起)。利用纳克斯检验(knox test)方法结合重复临近发生计算工具对DP半岛内街头抢劫案件是否存在临近重复发生现象进行探索性分析。研究发现：其一,研究区内的街头抢劫案件在多个空间—时间标度下存在着显著的临近重复发生现象。其二,选取其中最有代表性的空间—时间标度内具有临近重复发生现象的案件,研究其空间分布规律和年际变化规律。结果表明：① “前案件点”在空间分布呈现集聚现象,具有集中分布在主干道区域、土地利用混合程度较高区域以及道路通达性较高的区域三个特征。而针对“前案件点”进行防控切断“临近重复发生链”,将减少54起案件的发生。② 临近重复发生现象案件在年际分布上的波动变化与警务“严打”行动之间的动态联系,表明“严打”行动对街头抢劫案件的临近重复发生有强烈的抑制作用;而且相比一般案件,临近重复发生案件的发生更加集中于午夜。</p>
DP半岛街头抢劫案件的临近重复发生模式 .https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201502017 Magsci 摘要
<p>以往研究已经证实某些特定的犯罪类型(如入室盗窃、枪击案件)存在临近重复发生的现象,但是街头抢劫案件是否也同样存在临近重复发生的现象则很少被关注。以H市中心城区DP半岛为研究区域,探索岛上街头抢劫案件的时空分布规律,研究对象为岛上2006-2011年发生的街头抢劫案件(共373起)。利用纳克斯检验(knox test)方法结合重复临近发生计算工具对DP半岛内街头抢劫案件是否存在临近重复发生现象进行探索性分析。研究发现：其一,研究区内的街头抢劫案件在多个空间—时间标度下存在着显著的临近重复发生现象。其二,选取其中最有代表性的空间—时间标度内具有临近重复发生现象的案件,研究其空间分布规律和年际变化规律。结果表明：① “前案件点”在空间分布呈现集聚现象,具有集中分布在主干道区域、土地利用混合程度较高区域以及道路通达性较高的区域三个特征。而针对“前案件点”进行防控切断“临近重复发生链”,将减少54起案件的发生。② 临近重复发生现象案件在年际分布上的波动变化与警务“严打”行动之间的动态联系,表明“严打”行动对街头抢劫案件的临近重复发生有强烈的抑制作用;而且相比一般案件,临近重复发生案件的发生更加集中于午夜。</p>
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Crime concentrations and similarities in spatial crime patterns in a Brazilian context .https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.05.012 URL 摘要
Abstract Research within the geography of crime and spatial criminology literature most often show that crime is highly concentrated in particular places. Moreover, a subset of this literature has shown that the spatial patterns of these concentrations are different across crime types. This raises questions regarding the appropriateness of aggregating crime types (property and violent crime, for example) when the underlying spatial pattern is of interest. In this paper, using crime data from Campinas, Brazil, we investigate the crime concentrations and the similarities among different crime types across space. Similar to some recent research in another context, we find that crime is highly concentrated in Campinas but the ability to aggregate similar crime types at the street segment level is not generalizability when compared to a North American context.
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Introduction: Progress in research on the geography of crime .https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2010.547147 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract The research presented in this article provides an accurate narrative of the historical evolution of the geography of crime, including its major ideological controversies. It further gives credit to geographers whose works have gained considerable respect in other academic communities. Additionally, it aims to convince geographers that they have potentially very valuable contributions to make to the study of crime. The final and most important point that this narrative is trying to make is that geography's intellectual territory has become attractive to other disciplines and fields embracing the geography and spatial analysis of crime. La investigación a la que se refiere este artículo brinda una narrativa precisa sobre la evolución histórica de la geografía del crimen, incluso mostrando las principales controversias ideológicas relacionadas con estos temas. Adicionalmente, les da crédito a los geógrafos cuyo trabajo ha ganado considerable respeto en otras comunidades académicas. También, el artículo pretende convencer a los geógrafos de que ellos potencialmente tienen aportes muy valiosos que contribuir en el estudio del crimen. El punto final y también el más importante que esta narrativa trata de hacer notar es que el territorio intelectual de la geografía se ha hecho atractivo para otras disciplinas y campos que se ocupan de la distribución y análisis espacial del crimen.
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Review of crime geography in China .https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.013 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
当前社会犯罪问题严峻，以空间为视角的犯罪地理研究因其独特的综合性在犯罪防控中的作用日益凸显。以中国知网、维普和万方三大数据库中获得的期刊文献为基础，对中国犯罪地理的研究状况进行综合评述。在对国内五大研究主题进行回顾的基础上，围绕“研究主题”和“研究领域”两方面，分析了中国犯罪地理学的发展动态。总体来看，在过去的25 年中，中国犯罪地理研究逐渐起步，发展趋势良好，已经吸引了来自地理学、法学与警务管理、城市规划、应用数学等诸多领域的学者关注。尽管研究焦点各有侧重，但始终注重对国外研究和实践经验的引入，并提出了基于综合分析、情境预防、CPTED、PGIS的诸多防控对策。在犯罪时空分布特征、犯罪发生诱因等方面，研究范围宽广，但研究深度有待加强。未来中国犯罪地理学发展任重而道远。学界应充分重视城市犯罪与农村犯罪、犯罪与微观环境的互动关系、犯罪主体的行为空间等研究，并积极探索虚拟犯罪模拟新技术的应用。
中国犯罪地理研究述评 .https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.013 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
当前社会犯罪问题严峻，以空间为视角的犯罪地理研究因其独特的综合性在犯罪防控中的作用日益凸显。以中国知网、维普和万方三大数据库中获得的期刊文献为基础，对中国犯罪地理的研究状况进行综合评述。在对国内五大研究主题进行回顾的基础上，围绕“研究主题”和“研究领域”两方面，分析了中国犯罪地理学的发展动态。总体来看，在过去的25 年中，中国犯罪地理研究逐渐起步，发展趋势良好，已经吸引了来自地理学、法学与警务管理、城市规划、应用数学等诸多领域的学者关注。尽管研究焦点各有侧重，但始终注重对国外研究和实践经验的引入，并提出了基于综合分析、情境预防、CPTED、PGIS的诸多防控对策。在犯罪时空分布特征、犯罪发生诱因等方面，研究范围宽广，但研究深度有待加强。未来中国犯罪地理学发展任重而道远。学界应充分重视城市犯罪与农村犯罪、犯罪与微观环境的互动关系、犯罪主体的行为空间等研究，并积极探索虚拟犯罪模拟新技术的应用。
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Research progress of crime geography studies in China .https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1047.2013.00801 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
近30年来，随着公安部门犯罪防控需求的增加，中国犯罪地理学正处于新的发展机遇期。为了能较客观、全面地把握我国犯罪地理学的研究现状与动态，本文从中国知网、万方和维普3大电子资源数据库中筛选出与犯罪地理研究主题相关的期刊论文，以此为样本，对研究内容与研究实力等情况进行统计分析。结果表明，自1980s中期以来，中国犯罪地理学在论文数量、研究方法、实证区域、研究机构与核心作者等方面都日益增多，已经在城市犯罪地理、警用地理信息系统、规划设计预防犯罪、情境犯罪预防等4个主要研究方向出现了导向作用明显的核心作者，呈现出良好的发展态势。进入21世纪后，新的发展机遇在促进犯罪地理学论文数量与研究实力快速增加的同时，也导致了案例研究、量化研究的所占比重显著减少，研究区域的空间范围也大幅收敛，集中在长三角、京津、珠三角地区。新的研究阵营不断涌现，核心作者比重不断下降，犯罪地理学进入了研究阵营争鸣角力的重构期。未来我国犯罪地理学的发展任重而道远，不仅亟需完善相关的理论体系、加强国内的案例实证，而且还需注意研究规范的统一、核心作者群的代际更替等诸多问题。
中国犯罪地理与警务GIS研究进展 .https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1047.2013.00801 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
近30年来，随着公安部门犯罪防控需求的增加，中国犯罪地理学正处于新的发展机遇期。为了能较客观、全面地把握我国犯罪地理学的研究现状与动态，本文从中国知网、万方和维普3大电子资源数据库中筛选出与犯罪地理研究主题相关的期刊论文，以此为样本，对研究内容与研究实力等情况进行统计分析。结果表明，自1980s中期以来，中国犯罪地理学在论文数量、研究方法、实证区域、研究机构与核心作者等方面都日益增多，已经在城市犯罪地理、警用地理信息系统、规划设计预防犯罪、情境犯罪预防等4个主要研究方向出现了导向作用明显的核心作者，呈现出良好的发展态势。进入21世纪后，新的发展机遇在促进犯罪地理学论文数量与研究实力快速增加的同时，也导致了案例研究、量化研究的所占比重显著减少，研究区域的空间范围也大幅收敛，集中在长三角、京津、珠三角地区。新的研究阵营不断涌现，核心作者比重不断下降，犯罪地理学进入了研究阵营争鸣角力的重构期。未来我国犯罪地理学的发展任重而道远，不仅亟需完善相关的理论体系、加强国内的案例实证，而且还需注意研究规范的统一、核心作者群的代际更替等诸多问题。
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Spatial distribution and influencing mechanism of social and public security: An urban security spatial analysis based on from city crime alarm data .https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2013050010 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
维护社会安全与稳定是城市公共安全研究的重要课题,随着社会经济转型和城市空间结构变化的影响,北京市的社会治安公共安全呈现出明显的空间规律和特点。本文基于2006-2011年北京市110警情治安数据,结合GIS的空间密度分析方法,刻画北京社会治安公共安全的空间格局,并进一步探讨其空间分异机制。研究发现:①北京社会治安公共安全状况明显改善,犯罪空间形成小集聚多分散的演化特征,形成了多个警情高发的集聚区;②北京公共安全空间变化具有明显的偏向性和差异性,形成西北—东南的极化现象。③不同的犯罪类型其空间分布特征也不同,不同的犯罪类型都存在明显的、各具特色的空间分异特征。④从社会治安公共安全空间分异机制来看,经济功能区、人居环境、交通、流动人口和居民居住环境安全感等要素差异会引发不同的犯罪类型和形成不同的犯罪集聚区。本研究可为首都社会治安防控的空间管理策略和城市公共安全政策制定提供参考。
北京社会治安公共安全空间结构及其影响机制: 以城市110警情为例 .https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2013050010 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
维护社会安全与稳定是城市公共安全研究的重要课题,随着社会经济转型和城市空间结构变化的影响,北京市的社会治安公共安全呈现出明显的空间规律和特点。本文基于2006-2011年北京市110警情治安数据,结合GIS的空间密度分析方法,刻画北京社会治安公共安全的空间格局,并进一步探讨其空间分异机制。研究发现:①北京社会治安公共安全状况明显改善,犯罪空间形成小集聚多分散的演化特征,形成了多个警情高发的集聚区;②北京公共安全空间变化具有明显的偏向性和差异性,形成西北—东南的极化现象。③不同的犯罪类型其空间分布特征也不同,不同的犯罪类型都存在明显的、各具特色的空间分异特征。④从社会治安公共安全空间分异机制来看,经济功能区、人居环境、交通、流动人口和居民居住环境安全感等要素差异会引发不同的犯罪类型和形成不同的犯罪集聚区。本研究可为首都社会治安防控的空间管理策略和城市公共安全政策制定提供参考。
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Spatial analysis of property crimes in Changchun .
基于长春市公安局提供的警区层面的犯罪数据,分析了长春市2008 年财产犯罪率的空间分布特征。研究发现长春市财产犯罪率呈现出城市中心高而外围低的圈层式空间模式。通过对犯罪高发区域的用地性质和功能的分析发现,长春市主要商业区和主要客运交通枢纽所在警区均具有较高的财产犯罪率。利用空间分析的方法,判定出长春市财产犯罪的热点地区,从统计学意义上验证了犯罪活动的空间集聚性,进而推测这些区域可能存在犯罪扩散和溢出效应。借鉴国外相关理论及实证研究,结合长春市实际情况,通过回归建模分析,探讨了长春市财产犯罪率同人口、社会经济、土地利用等各因子可能存在的相互关系,发现长春市财产犯罪率受到人口密度、就业活跃度、商业区、服务业活跃度、客运枢纽和年轻人口比例的显著影响,在一定程度上支持了日常活动理论的基本观点,但需结合长春市实际情况做具体分析与解释。
长春市财产犯罪的空间分析 .
基于长春市公安局提供的警区层面的犯罪数据,分析了长春市2008 年财产犯罪率的空间分布特征。研究发现长春市财产犯罪率呈现出城市中心高而外围低的圈层式空间模式。通过对犯罪高发区域的用地性质和功能的分析发现,长春市主要商业区和主要客运交通枢纽所在警区均具有较高的财产犯罪率。利用空间分析的方法,判定出长春市财产犯罪的热点地区,从统计学意义上验证了犯罪活动的空间集聚性,进而推测这些区域可能存在犯罪扩散和溢出效应。借鉴国外相关理论及实证研究,结合长春市实际情况,通过回归建模分析,探讨了长春市财产犯罪率同人口、社会经济、土地利用等各因子可能存在的相互关系,发现长春市财产犯罪率受到人口密度、就业活跃度、商业区、服务业活跃度、客运枢纽和年轻人口比例的显著影响,在一定程度上支持了日常活动理论的基本观点,但需结合长春市实际情况做具体分析与解释。
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| [11] |
Busy places and broken windows? Toward defining the role of physical structure and process in community crime models .https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.2004.tb00009.x URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Abstract Borrowing from the systemic model of social disorganization theory as well as from theories of human ecology and urban geography, we examine the effects of land use on community rates of violence and burglary. We posit that community crime is differentially affected by distinct nonresidential physical spaces in a neighborhood—distinct in terms of whether they are adult-centered, “business-oriented” public spaces versus spaces that are public yet still “resident centered,” especially toward community youth (e.g., educational and recreational spaces). We examine potential main, mediating, and moderating effects of neighborhood social structure, resident-centered versus business-oriented public land use, and neighborhood-level processes, including neighboring and physical incivility, using data from 100 Seattle census tracts. Results suggest that the effects of schools on community violence are largely direct, while the effect of business places on violent crime is mediated substantially, but not completely, by physical disorder. In contrast, the effect of playgrounds on violence is moderated by residential instability. Regarding burglary, presence of schools is nonsignificant. Presence of businesses increases burglary, though the effect is partially mediated again by physical disorder. The effect of businesses is also moderated by residential (in)stability. Presence of playgrounds increases burglary risk regardless of neighborhood social-structural characteristics.
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| [12] |
Criminality of place . |
| [13] |
Local businesses as attractors or preventers of neighborhood disorder .https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810397948 Magsci 摘要
While businesses may attract potential offenders and thus be conducive to disorder, the number of employees could offset this by exercising social control on offenders. This study uses data from different sources to test this expectation across 278 Dutch neighborhoods in the four largest cities of the Netherlands, using multivariate multilevel analysis to disentangle individual perception differences of disorder and neighborhood effects. Attention is paid to traditional explanations of disorder (i.e., poverty, residential mobility, and ethnic heterogeneity). Results show a positive relationship between business presence and neighborhood disorder. We do not find consistent results of the number of employees (i.e., bigger businesses are not always better or worse). Our research demonstrates that the presence of neighborhood businesses could rival the effects of social disorganization theory.
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| [14] |
Offenses around stadiums: A natural experiment on crime attraction and generation .https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427812471349 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Objectives: Inspired by ecological theories of crime, the aim of this study was to make use of a natural experiment to see if a U.K. soccer stadium generates or attracts crime in the area that surrounds it. Method: Data for theft and violent crime around Wembley stadium are analyzed to see if the rate (per-unit time and ambient population) of crime differ for days on which the stadium is used and those it is not. In addition, differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of crime are examined for these two types of days. Results: Analyses indicate that on days when the stadium is used, the rate of crime per-unit time is elevated, but that the rate per ambient population at risk is not. The spatial and temporal pattern of crime also clearly differs for the two types of days. For example, the level of crime is elevated in the surrounding area when the stadium is used relative to when it is not. Conclusions. The case study suggests that the facility studied contributes to levels of crime in the area that surrounds it. The research provides further support for ecological theories of crime and their utility in informing criminological understanding and policy-related questions.
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| [15] |
Routine activities and motor vehicle theft: A crime specific approach .https://doi.org/10.1080/0735648X.1999.9721097 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract The routine activity approach to crime predicts that the routine daily activities of populations affect the availability of targets and, thereby, shape the crime rate. Routine activity researchers have realized the benefits of using crime-specific models. The current study follows this tradition by examining how the routine daily activities of populations affect the supply ofpotential offenders, the availability of targets, and the level of capable guardianship against crime, and thereby, shape the rate of motor vehicle theft. Results from multiple regression analysis show that measures of potential offenders, suitable targets, and guardianship explain variation in the rate of motor vehicle theft. Findings suggest that crime-specific measures are an appropriate method for examining the merits of routine activity theory.
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| [16] |
The law of crime concentration and the criminology of place .https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12070 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
According to Laub (2004), criminology has a developmental life course with specific turning points that allow for innovations in how we understand and respond to crime. I argue that criminology should take another turn in direction, focusing on microgeographic hot spots. By examining articles published in Criminology, I show that only marginal attention has been paid to this area of study to date ften termed the criminology of place. I illustrate the potential utility of a turning point by examining the law of crime concentration at place, which states that for a defined measure of crime at a specific microgeographic unit, the concentration of crime will fall within a narrow bandwidth of percentages for a defined cumulative proportion of crime. By providing the first cross ity comparison of crime concentration using a common geographic unit, the same crime type, and examining a general crime measure, I find strong support for a law of crime concentration. I also show that crime concentration stays within a narrow bandwidth across time, despite strong volatility in crime incidents. By drawing from these findings, I identify several key research questions for future study. In conclusion, I argue that a focus on the criminology of place provides significant opportunity for young scholars and has great promise for advancing criminology as a science.
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| [17] |
Robberies in Chicago: A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points .https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810384135 URL Magsci 摘要
The effects of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points on the distribution of street robberies across the nearly 25,000 census blocks of Chicago are examined. The analysis includes a wide array of activities and facilities that are expected to attract criminals and generate crime. These include a variety of legal and illegal businesses and infrastructural accessibility facilitators. In addition to these crime attractors and generators, the role of the presence of motivated offenders' anchor points, as measured by offenders' residence and gang activity, is assessed. The analysis also includes crime attractors, crime generators, and offender anchor points in adjacent census blocks. The findings demonstrate the strength of the effects of crime generators and attractors and offender anchor points on the frequency of street robbery at the census block level.
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| [18] |
Crime attractors, generators and detractors: land use and urban crime opportunities .https://doi.org/10.2148/benv.34.1.62 URL 摘要
Abstract The built environment impacts on the patterns of crime in many different ways. The distribution and clustering of different land uses is thought, on theoretical grounds, to play an important role in where and when crimes occur. This study analysed the patterns of assault and motor vehicle theft in relation to the distribution of land uses across more than 60,000 separate parcels of land in a large British Columbia city. Specific land-use types that concentrate routine human activities in time and space are found to act as major crime generators and attractors. Attention to the distribution of these land-use types across the urban mosaic can substantially reduce the volume of crime associated with design decisions.
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| [19] |
Nonresidential crime attractors and generators elevate perceived neighborhood crime and incivilities .https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427807301676 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
ABSTRACT Recent studies have produced conflicting findings about the impacts of local nonresidential land uses on perceived incivilities. This study advances work in this area by developing a land-use perspective theoretically grounded in Brantingham and Brantingham's geometry of crime model in environmental criminology. That focus directs attention to specific classes of land uses and suggests relevance of land uses beyond and within respondents' neighborhoods. Extrapolating from victimization and reactions to crime, crime-generating and crime-attracting land uses are expected to increase perceived neighborhood incivilities and crime. Multilevel models using land use, crime, census, and survey data from 342 Philadelphia heads of households confirmed expected individual-level impacts. These persisted even after controlling for resident demographics and for neighborhood fabric and violent crime rates. Neighborhood status and crime were the only relevant ecological predictors, and their impacts are interpreted in light of competing perspectives on the origins of incivilities.
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| [20] |
Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach .https://doi.org/10.2307/2094589 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
It is hypothesized that the dispersion of activites away from households and families increases the opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates. Data on changes in such variables as labor force participation and household composition are used to support the hypothesis. (Author/RLV)
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| [21] |
Routine leisure activities and rates of crime: A macro-level analysis .https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/65.4.1035 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A routine activities approach is applied to explain the relations between macro-level indicators of leisure activities and rates of serious crime. It is hypothesized that indicators of the volume of leisure activities that typically take place within households will exhibit negative relations with rates of crime, whereas indicators of the volume of leisure activities that are usually conducted ...
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| [22] |
Does a difference make a difference? Comparing cross-national crime indicators .https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1990.tb01322.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
ABSTRACT This study investigates the question of reliability among four widely used cross-national data sets by constructing an error framework that relates types of errors to uses of the data. The findings indicate that (1) for nation-by-nation point estimation, the four data sets differ by varying degrees, (2) for aggregate point estimation in cross-sectional descriptive and longitudinal descriptive studies, they are statistically similar, and (3) for analytic or explanatory cross-sectional purposes, they yield statistically and substantively similar results. In short, for studies seeking aggregate descriptions of world crime or analytic explanations of cross-national crime rates, differences in the data sets do not make a difference in the results.
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| [23] |
Social differentiation in criminal victimization: A test of routine activities/lifestyle theories .https://doi.org/10.2307/2095447 URL 摘要
ABSTRACT Recent theories posit that social differentiation in the risks of criminal victimization is due to variation in routine activities/lifestyles which place some persons or their property in proximity to motivated offenders. For a sample of 107,678 residents in thirteen U.S. cities, measures of the nature and quantity of routine activities outside the home (major daytime activity, frequency of nighttime activity) are introduced to assess the mediational effects of these variables on the demographic correlates of victimization. Routine activities/lifestyle variables have relatively strong direct and mediational effects on individuals' risks of property victimization but not for violent victimization. These findings are discussed in terms of their implications for further research on the relationship between demographic variables, routine activities/lifestyles, and criminal victimization.
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| [24] |
Environmental characteristics associated with residential burglaries of student apartment complexes .https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916597295004 URL 摘要
ABSTRACT This study identified environmental characteristics associated with residential burglaries of apartment complexes predominantly occupied by students, located near two major universities and a community college in Tallahassee, Florida. Through observation and measurement of environmental characteristics, results showed that accessibility played little role in differentiating burglarized and nonburglarized apartment units. Yet, burglarized units were disproportionately likely to be located on the comer of the building and on the first floor. Results also showed that apartment units with reported burglaries in 1993 were less surveillable than apartment units with no reported burglaries .e., burglarized units were more obstructed by foliage or structure. Finally, through surveying student apartment residents, results suggested that burglaries largely occurred at times when students reported being away from their apartments for purposes of attending classes, engaging in recreational activities, or shopping. The results add additional support for the well-established link between environmental characteristics and residential burglary.
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| [25] |
Predicting risks of larceny theft victimization: A routine activity analysis using refined lifestyle measures .https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1998.tb01267.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Routine activity theory has long been plagued by a heavy reliance on proxy measures of lifestyles, which typically include demographic variables that are regularly used as measures of lifestyle and behavior. This reliance on indirect measures forces researchers to suppose how and why these indicators are related to victimization risks. Using detailed measurements of activities and specific structural aspects of communities is clearly more desirable and beneficial when seeking to explain variances in victimization risks. This research advances theoretical understandings of victimization risks through an analysis of specific social activities, aspects of neighborhoods, and contribution of each to the risks of larceny victimization for college students. We find that greater specificity in measuring lifestyles is warranted, for it is not just leaving one's home and going out in public that increases one's risk for victimization (a typical finding of routine activity theory scholars), but where one goes and what one does that are the important larceny victimization predictors.
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| [26] |
Disaggregating the space-time layers of city-centre activities and their users .https://doi.org/10.1068/a35294 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Adopting a focus on both time and space, the authors aim to unpack the complexity of uses and users in the city centre. Evidence from Swansea reveals a stark twofold temporal division between a frequently visited daytime city and a much less frequently visited evening and nighttime city. Furthermore, lower intensity evening activities such as theatres and cinemas are distinguished from the higher intensity nighttime activities of pubs and clubs, with restaurants and caf occupying an intermediate position. The evening clientele visit less frequently and are disproportionately drawn from the older and higher status social groups, whereas later at night, pubs and clubs are visited more frequently, and by imbalances of the young, lower status groups, and students. The city centre is seen as an area of spatial, temporal, and social segregation, with implications for policies that aim towards a more inclusive and safer 24-hour city. The conclusions emphasise the importance of time in urban geographical research and in policies for city-centre revitalisation.
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| [27] |
Necessary space-time conditions for human interaction .https://doi.org/10.1068/b31154 URL 摘要
Key scientific and application questions concern the relationships between individual-level activities and their effects on broader human phenomena, such as transportation systems and cities. Continuing advances in geographic information science, location-aware technologies, and geosimulation methods offer great potential for observational and simulation studies of human activities at high levels of spatiotemporal resolution. The author contributes by developing rigorous statements of the necessary space - time conditions for human interaction by extending a measurement theory for time geography. The extended measurement theory identifies necessary conditions both for physical and for virtual interaction. The theory suggests elegant and tractable solutions that can be derived from data available from location-aware technologies or geosimulation methods. These conditions and their solutions could be used to infer the possibilities for human interaction from detailed space - time trajectories and prisms generated from observation or simulation studies.
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| [28] |
Space-time and integral measures of individual accessibility: A comparative analysis using a point-based framework .https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1998.tb00396.x URL 摘要
ABSTRACT Conventional integral measures of accessibility, although valuable as indicators of place accessibility, have several limitations when used to evaluate individual accessibility. Two alternatives for overcoming some of the difficulties involved are explored in this study. One is to adapt these measures for evaluating individual accessibility using a disaggregate, nonzonal approach. The other is to develop different types of measures based on an alternative conceptual framework. To pursue the former alternative, this study specifies and examines eighteen gravity-type and cumulative-opportunity accessibility measures using a point-based spatial framework. For the latter option, twelve space-time accessibility measures are developed based on the construct of a prism-constrained feasible opportunity set. This paper compares the relationships and spatial patterns of these thirty measures using network-based GIS procedures. Travel diary data collected in Columbus, Ohio, and a digital data set of 10,727 selected land parcels are used for all computation. Results of this study indicate that space-time and integral indices are distinctive types of accessibility measures which reflect different dimensions of the accessibility experience of individuals. Since space-time measures are more capable of capturing interpersonal differences, especially the effect of space-time constraints, they are more ender sensitive and helpful for unraveling gender/ethnic differences in accessibility. An important methodological implication is that whether accessibility is observed to be important or different between individuals depends heavily on whether the measure used is capable of revealing the kind of differences the analyst intends to observe.
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| [29] |
Spatio-temporal pattern of residents' daily activities based on T-GIS: A case study in Guangzhou, China .
随着人文主义思潮的兴起和居民生活水平的提高，关于生活质量的改善问题日益受到重视，以研究个体活动时空关系为重点的时间地理学研究也得到发展。T-GIS 能较好地反映和记录个体活动动态过程,为时间地理学的研究提供了新的技术手段。近年来在工业化、城市化、信息化、住房与就业市场化等多重因素的共同作用下，中国城市的内部空间结构发生了急剧的演化，城市居民的日常活动也发生变化，居民微观行为和日常活动组织及社会空间的研究正成为解释城市空间重构及其机制的重要研究视角。本研究结合T-GIS 和时间地理学基本理论，以广州市为案例，利用居民出行日志的问卷调查数据，开发基于ArcGIS 的居民行为链时空分析工具，揭示了典型时间断面居民的空间分布特征和居民日常活动社会分异的的时空关系。结果表明，居民出行行为具有很强的时空关联性。城市中心区在一天不同时间都保持较强的吸引力，成为居民日常活动中各类活动的主要空间载体；城市空间的拓展，改变了部分居民特别是居住在外围街区居民的日常生活习惯；居民的日常活动时空关系存在一定的阶层分化，低阶层日常总体上离开居住地活动的时间最长，但日常活动的活动空间最小,人均月交通费用最低,主要活动空间位于城市中心区和部分传统单位生活区周边；高阶层日常总体上离开居住地活动的时间最短，其活动范围却最大，主要活动空间位于新城市中心区及其周边地区,人均月交通费用最高；中阶层的活动空间相对均衡,交通费用适中。这种时空关联性的分析，有助于揭示居民的日常活动与城市内部空间结构的关系，拓展基于日常活动过程的城市社会空间研究及交通需求评估，为城市规划和管理提供可靠的依据。
基于T-GIS的广州市居民日常活动时空关系 .
随着人文主义思潮的兴起和居民生活水平的提高，关于生活质量的改善问题日益受到重视，以研究个体活动时空关系为重点的时间地理学研究也得到发展。T-GIS 能较好地反映和记录个体活动动态过程,为时间地理学的研究提供了新的技术手段。近年来在工业化、城市化、信息化、住房与就业市场化等多重因素的共同作用下，中国城市的内部空间结构发生了急剧的演化，城市居民的日常活动也发生变化，居民微观行为和日常活动组织及社会空间的研究正成为解释城市空间重构及其机制的重要研究视角。本研究结合T-GIS 和时间地理学基本理论，以广州市为案例，利用居民出行日志的问卷调查数据，开发基于ArcGIS 的居民行为链时空分析工具，揭示了典型时间断面居民的空间分布特征和居民日常活动社会分异的的时空关系。结果表明，居民出行行为具有很强的时空关联性。城市中心区在一天不同时间都保持较强的吸引力，成为居民日常活动中各类活动的主要空间载体；城市空间的拓展，改变了部分居民特别是居住在外围街区居民的日常生活习惯；居民的日常活动时空关系存在一定的阶层分化，低阶层日常总体上离开居住地活动的时间最长，但日常活动的活动空间最小,人均月交通费用最低,主要活动空间位于城市中心区和部分传统单位生活区周边；高阶层日常总体上离开居住地活动的时间最短，其活动范围却最大，主要活动空间位于新城市中心区及其周边地区,人均月交通费用最高；中阶层的活动空间相对均衡,交通费用适中。这种时空关联性的分析，有助于揭示居民的日常活动与城市内部空间结构的关系，拓展基于日常活动过程的城市社会空间研究及交通需求评估，为城市规划和管理提供可靠的依据。
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| [30] |
A temporal constraint theory to explain opportunity-based spatial offending patterns .https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427806286566 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract This article will examine the evidence supporting the notion that a proportion of offending is driven by the availability of opportunities presented in the routine activities of offenders’ lives. It then proceeds to summarize Miller’s time measurement theory in order to describe a basic language with which to discuss the movement of people through time and space. Armed with a notation for space-time interactions, the article explores the criminological implications of temporal constraints as a mechanism to explain a number of key concepts from environmental criminology. It is hypothesized here that the temporal constraints of daily life are the main cause of unfamiliarity with areas beyond the offender’s immediate least-distance path. As a result, temporal constraints, in conjunction with the locations of offender nodes, are a major determinant in spatio-temporal patterns of property crime.
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| [31] |
Testing for temporally differentiated relationships among potentially criminogenic places and census block street robbery counts .https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12076 URL [本文引用: 4] 摘要
This study examined street robbery patterns in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from the years 2009 to 2011 to determine whether the effects of potentially criminogenic places are different across different periods of the day. Census block (N = 13,164) street robbery counts across four periods (6:45 a.m. to 9:59 a.m., 10:00 a.m. to 4:29 p.m., 4:30 p.m. to 9:14 p.m., and 9:15 p.m. to 6:44 a.m.) were modeled with 12 different potentially criminogenic places, 3 measures of illicit markets, 4 compositional control variables, and spatially lagged versions of the 12 potentially criminogenic places and population using simultaneously estimated negative binomial regression models. Differences in the magnitudes of the parameter estimates across the time periods were assessed with Wald tests. Overall, the patterns across the four models were mostly consistent with the effects hypothesized based on the study's crime pattern theory and time‐geography theoretical frame; yet differences in the magnitudes of the coefficients were less pronounced than hypothesized. Overall, the results provide moderate support for the crime pattern theory and time‐geography explanation of spatial‐temporal robbery patterns; however, numerous points are raised for future crime and place research.
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| [32] |
Alcohol-related crime and disorder across urban space and time: Evidence from a British city .https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7185(01)00038-0 URL 摘要
Using a police recording system containing new forms of information on the role of alcohol consumption, this paper focuses on the space and time dimensions of alcohol-related crime and disorder, and situates the patterns in the context of the functions of different urban spaces. Data for Worcester, UK, in 1999 show that alcohol is noted as a contributory factor in 8% of recorded crime, but that...
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| [33] |
Space-time dynamics of crime in transport nodes .https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2013.846150 Magsci 摘要
This article assesses space-time variations of crime rates in underground stations. Drawing on assumptions from time geography, routine activity principles, and defensible space theory, the study investigates daily, weekly, and seasonal variations of crime at underground stations in the Swedish capital, Stockholm. Data from extensive field work at the stations was combined with crime records and passenger flow to test whether stations' environmental attributes affect crime at different times. Geographical information systems, spatial statistic techniques, and modeling underpin the methodology used in the study. Findings show that crimes tend to happen more often in the evening, at night, on holidays, and on weekends. There is also evidence of seasonal variations of crime. In the winter, stations with social disturbance and signs of deterioration show high levels of crime, whereas in the summer, offenses are concentrated in stations nearby alcohol selling outlets. Stations with hiding spots are often targeted for crime during daily peak hours, whereas during holidays, crowded stations and those with alcohol selling outlets attract more criminal activities. Results suggest that the role of the stations' environment on crime causation varies over timean important fact for safety interventions.
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| [34] |
Crime seasonality and its variations across space .https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.06.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Investigations into the seasonal patterns of crime date back 180 years to the beginnings of spatial criminology. This original research by Adolphe Quetelet, and much subsequent work, has shown that various crimes have a seasonal component, but the strength and timing of the respective seasonalities vary by crime type. In this paper, we first investigate the existence of seasonality for a number of different crime types, but also the variations of seasonality across space. We find that not only do the various crime types exhibit seasonal patterns, but those seasonal patterns have relatively distinct spatial patterns. This has implications for theory and policy. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| [35] |
Poisson-based regression analysis of aggregate crime rates .https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007521427059 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<a name="Abs1"></a>This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.
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| [36] |
Studying determinants of social network size: Comparison of different statistical models .
在对社会网规模的估算中，OLS方法的适当性和实际效果目前还缺乏较为系统的考察。本文在对现有统计学文献进行梳理的基础上，初步探讨了在估算社会网规模时OLS方法可能存在的问题及可供选择的替代方案。通过对CGSS2003数据集的统计分析及计算机模拟分析，本文在经验层面发现，OLS估计结果确实与替代方案（特别是负二项回归模型）的估计结果存在明显的差异。最后，本文建议研究者采用可供替代的建模方式研究社会网络规模的影响因素。
社会网络规模的影响因素: 不同估计方法的比较 .
在对社会网规模的估算中，OLS方法的适当性和实际效果目前还缺乏较为系统的考察。本文在对现有统计学文献进行梳理的基础上，初步探讨了在估算社会网规模时OLS方法可能存在的问题及可供选择的替代方案。通过对CGSS2003数据集的统计分析及计算机模拟分析，本文在经验层面发现，OLS估计结果确实与替代方案（特别是负二项回归模型）的估计结果存在明显的差异。最后，本文建议研究者采用可供替代的建模方式研究社会网络规模的影响因素。
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| [37] |
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| [38] |
Ordinary business impacts on commercial and residential burglary .https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azt064 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Research on land use and burglary has focused on the presence of drinking places and other undesirable businesses. The current study examines how a variety of ordinary businesses are associated with commercial and residential burglary. We identify three characteristics of ordinary businesses: services locations (on-site or off-site), volume of transactions (higher to lower) and clientele (neighbourhood or beyond). Businesses providing services or products on-site, used frequently and serving neighbourhood residents displayed strong associations with increased risks of victimization. Findings demonstrate the importance of recognizing how ordinary businesses influence crime patterns.
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| [39] |
Temporally impact of urban structure on city traffic accidents in Huizhou .
<p>利用惠州的交通事故数据,结合惠州的土地利用类型及重要设施的分布数据来探讨城市空间结构对交通事故的影响,使用Kernel 核心密度法定性探讨交通事故密度的时空变化,把土地类型及重要设施抽象化为点空间要素,建立对数线性回归模型定量讨论城市空间结构对城市交通事故影响的时间差异。分析结果表明,在各个时期惠城区商业用地对交通事故的影响均很显著;工作地和车站对交通事故的影响主要体现在交通流高峰及消散期2 个时间段内,但影响程度比商业用地低;在交通流次高峰时,交叉口和工作地的交互作用容易导致事故的高发;城市空间结构通过聚集人流或影响人们的出行等方式对交通事故的发生产生影响。</p>
城市空间结构对惠州市中心城区交通事故影响的时间差异分析 .
<p>利用惠州的交通事故数据,结合惠州的土地利用类型及重要设施的分布数据来探讨城市空间结构对交通事故的影响,使用Kernel 核心密度法定性探讨交通事故密度的时空变化,把土地类型及重要设施抽象化为点空间要素,建立对数线性回归模型定量讨论城市空间结构对城市交通事故影响的时间差异。分析结果表明,在各个时期惠城区商业用地对交通事故的影响均很显著;工作地和车站对交通事故的影响主要体现在交通流高峰及消散期2 个时间段内,但影响程度比商业用地低;在交通流次高峰时,交叉口和工作地的交互作用容易导致事故的高发;城市空间结构通过聚集人流或影响人们的出行等方式对交通事故的发生产生影响。</p>
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| [40] |
Nodes, paths and edges: Considerations on the complexity of crime and the physical environment .https://doi.org/10.1016/S0272-4944(05)80212-9 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
ABSTRACT Crime has long been thought to be intimately associated with the physical environment in which it occurs. Theoretical and empirical developments over the past 20 years demonstrate that this relationship is complex and varies substantially at different levels of spatial and temporal resolution. Research on the distribution of property crimes in time and space resonates with research on the target selection processes of offenders to suggest that crime is strongly related to aggregate elements of the perceived physical environment: nodes, paths, edges and an environmental backcloth. The relationship between crime and the physical environment is mediated through individual awareness and action spaces. This implies a series of research issues and crime control policies for future exploration.
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