EN中文

地理学报 >

2014 , Vol. 69 >Issue 6: 723 - 737

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201406001

人口与城市地理

基于分县尺度的中国人口分布适宜度研究

展开
  • 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101
封志明（1963-），河北平山人，博士，研究员，主要从事资源开发与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail：fengzm@igsnrr.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2013-09-03

  修回日期: 2014-01-23

  网络出版日期: 2014-06-20

基金资助

国土资源部重点实验室开放基金项目；国家人口计生委流动人口司研究项目

收起

Research on the suitability of population distribution at the county level in China

Expand
  • Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China

Received date: 2013-09-03

  Revised date: 2014-01-23

  Online published: 2014-06-20

Supported by

Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, MLR; Department of Services and Management of Migrant Population, NHFPC

Fold

摘要

以人口空间分布及其与资源环境和社会经济协调性评价为核心，提出了一整套人口与资源环境和经济社会发展协调水平评价的指标体系与模型方法；以分县为基本单元，定量评价了2010 年中国人口与资源环境和社会经济发展的协调性和协调程度；根据人口分布适宜度高低和限制性差别，划分了中国分县人口分布适宜等级和限制类型，定量揭示了中国不同地区人口与资源环境和社会经济协调发展的时空格局和地域特征。研究表明：① 2010 年中国有3/5 以上的县（市、区） 人口分布与人居环境基本适宜，中国分县人口分布与人居环境自然适宜性保持了高度一致性；② 2010 年中国有1/2 以上的县（市、区） 人口发展基本不受水土资源约束，分县人口分布与水土资源适宜性处于中等水平；③ 2010 年中国有超3/5 的县（市、区） 人口与社会经济发展基本协调，人口分布的社会经济协调性良好；④ 2010 年中国近3/5 的县（市、区） 人口分布适宜度在60 以上，人口资源环境与发展处于基本协调或相对协调状态；⑤2010 年中国分县人口资源环境与发展的协调程度东部优于中部、中部优于西部；⑥ 2010 年中国分县人口分布适宜度可划分为人口资源环境与发展基本协调、相对协调、有待协调和亟待协调4个适宜等级与10 个限制类型。

关键词： 人口; 分县; 中国; 适宜度; 协调

本文引用格式

封志明, 杨艳昭, 游珍, 张景华 . 基于分县尺度的中国人口分布适宜度研究[J]. 地理学报, 2014 , 69(6) : 723 -737 . DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201406001

Abstract

The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment, social and economic development has attracted much attention for a long time. This paper set up an index system and some models for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment, social and economic development. Then it used the index system and models to evaluate this coordination quantitatively at the county level. Based on this, the suitability and restriction of population distribution at the county level was graded and classified respectively, and its spatial and temporal patterns as well as regional characteristics were also revealed quantitatively. The results showed that: (1) population distribution was generally coordinated with human settlements environment in more than 3/5 of counties in China in 2010, which meant that population distribution was highly consistent with the natural suitability of human settlements environment at the county level; (2) population growth was merely not restricted by water and land resources in about half of counties in China in 2010, indicating that population distribution had medium coordination with the suitability of water and land resources; (3) population distribution was generally coordinated with social and economic development in more than 3/5 of counties in China in 2010, suggesting that population distribution was highly consistent with social and economic development; (4) the suitability degree of population distribution was larger than 60 in about 3/5 of counties in China in 2010, which showed that the relationship between population, resources, environment and development was coordinated or relatively coordinated; (5) as for the coordination between population, resources, environment and development at the county level, the eastern region was the best, the central region ranked second and the western region was the worst; (6) the suitability degree of population distribution at the county level could be identified into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, under coordination and urgent need for coordination and 10 restricted classes.

Key words： suitability; coordination; China; population; county

参考文献

[1] National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. The Population Development
Functional Zoning (The First Part). Beijing: World Knowledge Press, 2009. [国家人口和计划生育委员会发展规划与信
息司. 人口发展功能分区研究(上). 北京: 世界知识出版社, 2009.]
[2] Niu Wenyuan. Basic understanding of the theory of sustainable development. Progress in Geography, 2008, 27(3): 1-
6. [牛文元. 可持续发展理论的基本认知. 地理科学进展, 2008, 27(3): 1-6.]
[3] Luo Hui, Huo Youguang, Hu Yanhua, et al. The theory review of sustainable development. Journal of Northwest Scitech
University of Agriculture and Forestry: Social Science Edition, 2004, 4(1): 35-38. [罗慧, 霍有光, 胡彦华, 等. 可持
续发展理论综述. 西北农林科技大学学报: 社会科学版, 2004, 4(1): 35-38.]
[4] Qi Ye , Cai Qin. A Decade of Advances in Sustainability Theory. China Population, Resources and Environment,
2010.20(4):110-116. [齐晔, 蔡琴. 可持续发展理论三项进展. 中国人口#资源与环境, 2010.20(4):110-116.]
[5] Niu Wenyuan. The theoretical connotation of sustainable development: The 20th Anniversary of UN Conference on
Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012, 22(5): 9-
14. [牛文元. 可持续发展理论的内涵认知: 纪念联合国里约环发大会20 周年. 中国人口资源与环境, 2012, 22(5): 9-
14.]
[6] Yang Kuifu, Tian Xueyuan. Population, Resources and Environment Sustainable Development. Hangzhou: Zhejiang
People's Publishing House, 2001. [杨魁孚, 田雪原.人口资源环境可持续发展, 杭州: 浙江人民出版社, 2001.]
[7] Simone Marsiglio. On the relationship between population change and sustainable development. Research in
Economics, 2011, 65(4): 353-364.
[8] China Sustainable Development Strategy Research Group. The Strategy Report of China's Sustainable Development:
Ecological Civilization Road in the Next 10 Years. Beijing: Science Press, 2013. [中国可持续发展战略研究组, 2013 中
国可持续发展战略报告: 未来10 年的生态文明之路. 北京: 科学出版社, 2013.]
[9] Wei Yiming, Zeng Rong, Fan Ying et al. A multi-objective goal programming model for Beijing's coordination
development of population, resources, environment and economy. Systems Engineering: Theory & Practice, 2002, (2):
74-83. [魏一鸣, 曾嵘, 范英, 等. 北京市人口、资源、环境与经济协调发展的多目标规划模型. 系统工程理论与实践,
2002, (2): 74-83.]
[10] Hu Guoliang, Zhu Xiao. Comprehensive evaluation of population, resources, environment and economic system in
Xinjiang: Based on the principal component analysis method, Ecological Economy, 2009, (6): 67-69, 77. [胡国良, 朱
晓. 新疆人口、资源、环境与经济系统的综合评价: 基于主成分分析方法, 生态经济, 2009, 6, 67-69, 77.]
[11] Mi Hong, Ji Guoli, Lin Qican. The sustainable development system theory and the method of assessment of regional
population, Resources, environment and economy coordinated in China. Population and Economics, 1999, (6): 17-
25. [米红, 吉国力, 林琪灿. 中国县级区域人口、资源、环境与经济协调发展的可持续发展系统理论和评估方法研
究, 人口与经济, 1999, (6): 17-25.]
[12] Mao Hanying. Study on coordinating development of economic, social growth with population, resources and
environment at county level. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1991, 46(4): 385-395. [毛汉英. 县域经济和社会同人口、资
源、环境协调发展研究. 地理学报, 1991, 46(4): 385-395.]
[13] Chen Ying. Research on the coordinated development of population, resources, environment and economic, social
development in Qinghai Province. Northwest Population, 2007, 28(5): 25-30. [陈颖. 青海省人口、资源、环境与经
济、社会的协调发展研究. 西北人口, 2007, 28(5): 25-30.]
[14] Tong Yufen, Liu Chang'an. Evaluation of coordination degree between Beijing population, economy and environment.
Population and Development, 2013, 19(1): 44-51. [童玉芬, 刘长安. 北京市人口、经济和环境关系的协调度评价.
人口与发展, 2013, 19(1): 44-51.]
[15] Tine Ningal, Hartemink A E, Bregt A K. Land use change and population growth in the Morobe Province of Papua
New Guinea between 1975 and 2000. Journal of Environmental Management, 2008, 87(1): 117-124.
[16] Srijana Dawadi, Sajjad Ahmad. Evaluating the impacts of demand-side management on water resources under
changing climatic conditions and increasing population. Journal of Environmental Management, 2013, 114: 261-275.
[17] Li Yongfeng, Ma Zhong. Analysis on the sustainable development of population, resources, environment and economy.
Journal of Shanxi Normal University: Natural Science Edition, 2012, 26(3): 92-97. [李勇峰, 马忠. 人口、资源、环
境与经济可持续发展分析研究: 以西部地区为例, 山西师范大学学报: 自然科学版, 2012, 26(3): 92-97.]
[18] Niu Wenyuan. Sustainable development: the inevitable choice of development strategy in twenty-first century in China.
Ecological Economy, 2000, (1): 1-3. [牛文元. 可持续发展: 21 世纪中国发展战略的必然选择. 生态经济, 2000, (1):
1-3.]
[19] Qin Yaochen, Chen Shimin, Wang Xi et al. Rational sustainable development: theories and their application. Progress
in Geography, 1997, 16(1): 15-22. [秦耀辰, 陈世敏, 王喜等. 区域持续发展的基本理论及其实践意义. 地理科学进
展, 1997, 16(1): 15-22.]
[20] Qin Dahe, Zhang Kunmin, Niu Wenyuan et al. The Population Resources Environment and Sustainable Development
in China. Beijing: Xinhua Press, 2002. [秦大河, 张坤民, 牛文元等. 中国人口资源环境与可持续发展. 北京: 新华
出版社, 2002.]
[21] Wu Wenheng, Niu Shuwen. Evolutional analysis of coupling between population and resource-environment in China.
Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2012, 12: 793-801.
[22] The State Council. China Twenty-first Century Agenda: China Twenty-first Century Population, Environment and
Development White Paper. China Environmental Science Press, 1994. [国务院. 中国21 世纪议程: 中国21 世纪人
口、环境与发展白皮书. 中国环境科学出版社, 1994.]
[23] Zeng Rong, Wei Yiming, Fan Ying et al. Analysis system of coordinated development of population, resources,
environment and economy. Systems Engineering: Theory & Practice, 2000, (12): 1-6. [曾嵘, 魏一鸣, 范英等. 人
口、资源、环境与经济协调发展系统分析. 系统工程理论与实践, 2000, (12): 1-6.]
[24] Evan G R Davies, Slobodan P Simonovic. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the socialeconomic-
environmental system. Advances in Water Resources, 2011, 34(6): 684-700.
[25] Zhong Shuiying, Jian Xinhua. Population, Resources and Environmental Economics. Beijing: Science Press, 2007. [钟
水映, 简新华. 人口、资源与环境经济学. 北京: 科学出版社, 2007.]
[26] Feng Zhiming, Tang Yan, Yang Yanzhao et al. Establishment and application of human settlements environment Index
Model (HEI) based on GIS. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(12): 1327-1336. [封志明, 唐焰, 杨艳昭等. 基于GIS
的中国人居环境指数模型的建立与应用. 地理学报, 2008, 63(12): 1327-1336.]
[27] Hao Huimei, Ren Zhiyuan. Evaluation of nature suitability for human settlement in Shanxi Province based on grid
data. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(4): 498-506. [郝慧梅, 任志远. 基于栅格数据的陕西省人居环境自然适宜
性测评. 地理学报, 2009, 64(4): 498-506.]
[28] Wang Meixia, Ren Zhiyuan, Wang Yongming et al. Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity based on GIS
techniques in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2010, 28(6): 222-227. [
王美霞, 任志远, 王永明, 等. 基于GIS 的关中-天水经济区水资源承载力评价. 干旱地区农业研究, 2010, 28(6):
222-227.]
[29] Li Jiuyi, Li Lijuan. Water resources supporting capacity to regional socio-economic development of China. Acta
Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(3): 410-419. [李九一, 李丽娟. 中国水资源对区域社会经济发展的支撑能力. 地理学
报, 2012, 67(3): 410-419.]
[30] Yang Yanzhao, Zhang Weike, Liu Dengwei et al. Water and land balance and water resources carrying capacity in
Inner Mongolia. Arid Land Geography, 2008, 31(3): 436-441. [杨艳昭, 张伟科, 刘登伟. 内蒙古水土资源平衡及其
水资源承载能力. 干旱区地理, 2008, 31(3): 436-441.]
[31] Lou Shengxia. Study on evaluation and security of regional water resources carrying based on GIS technology
perspective: Taking Zunyi as an example. Guizhou Social Sciences, 2011, (8): 60-63. [娄胜霞. GIS 技术视角下区域
水资源承载力评价与保障研究: 以遵义地区为例. 贵州社会科学, 2011, (8): 60-63.]
[32] Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao, Zhang Jing. The land carrying capacity of China based on man-grain relationship. Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(5): 865-875. [封志明, 杨艳昭, 张晶. 中国基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力
研究: 从分县到分省. 自然资源学报, 2008, 23(5): 865-875.]
[33] Liu Dong, Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao et al. Characteristics of grain production and spatial pattern of land carrying
capacity of China. Transactions of the CSAE, 2011, 27(7): 1-6. [刘东, 封志明, 杨艳昭等. 中国粮食生产发展特征
及土地资源承载力空间格局现状. 农业工程学报, 2011, 27(7): 1-6.]
[34] Liu Dong, Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao. Evaluation of China's material-based development using GIS: From county
to province level. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(7): 1234-1245. [刘东, 封志明, 杨艳昭. 基于GIS 的中国物
质积累基础评价: 从分县到分省. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(7): 1234-1245.]
[35] Feng Zhiming, Liu Xiaona. Study on the consistency of the population distribution and economic development in
China. Population & Economics, 2013, (2): 3-11. [封志明, 刘晓娜. 中国人口分布与经济发展空间一致性研究. 人口
与经济, 2013, (2): 3-11.]
[36] Wu Yingmei, Feng Zhiming, Peng Fuliang. Regional Humanities and Social Harmonious Development Mechanism and
Countermeasure. Beijing: Science Press, 2008. [吴映梅, 封志明, 彭福亮. 区域人文社会和谐发展机制与对策研究.
北京: 科学出版社, 2008.]
[37] Liu Ruiwen, Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao et al. Research on the spatial pattern of population agglomeration and
dispersion in China, Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(10): 1171-1177. [刘睿文, 封志明, 杨艳昭等. 基于人口聚集度
的中国人口集疏格局. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(10): 1171-1177.]
Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉