中国省际煤炭资源流动的时空演变及驱动力
收稿日期: 2007-10-12
修回日期: 2008-02-25
网络出版日期: 2008-06-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(40771085); 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新项目(066U0402SZ)
Spatial- temporal Process and Driving Force of Interprovincial Coal Flowing in China
Received date: 2007-10-12
Revised date: 2008-02-25
Online published: 2008-06-25
Supported by
National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, No.40771085; Knowledge Innovation Project of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, No.066U0402SZ
根据1957-2005 年中国各省区煤炭调出和调入数据, 运用SPSS 和GIS 方法, 首先对 “一五”~ “十五”各省区的煤炭流动地域类型进行了判别, 然后在省域尺度研究了煤炭资源 区域流动的时空过程, 最后探讨了煤炭资源流动时空演变的驱动力。“一五”~ “十五”中国 省际间煤炭流动演变特征有: 中国省际间煤炭资源流动规模逐年增大, 省际间煤炭调出总量 年均增长5.9%, 煤炭调入总量年均增长5.6%。流动范围逐年扩展, 无流地由1957 年的10 个省区缩小至近年的1 个左右。流场呈集中输流、分散汇流的特征, 调出省区个数< 调入省 区个数, 调出首位度> 调入首位度。煤炭区域流动演变的主要驱动力有: ① 产消不平衡是煤 炭资源区域流动的基本动力。晋陕蒙、西部煤炭产消盈余, 华东、中南、东北煤炭产消亏缺, 决定了北煤南运、西煤东运的煤炭流动格局。② 运煤通道的改善促进了煤炭区域流动。2005 年交通密度指数在20 以上的省区, 煤炭外运条件较好, 交通密度指数20 以下的省区都不同 程度的存在煤炭外运困难。而且, 统筹交通设施布局与煤炭生产布局可极大地推动区域煤炭 流动。③ 煤炭区域价格差异是煤炭流动的信号, 对资源流动的方向和数量产生一定的影响。
成升魁, 徐增让, 沈镭 . 中国省际煤炭资源流动的时空演变及驱动力[J]. 地理学报, 2008 , 63(6) : 603 -612 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200806005
Based on data of export to other provinces and import from other provinces, with statistical analysis by SPSS and spatial analysis by GIS, change of regional type of coal flow from the 1st Five-Year Plan (FYP) to the 10th FYP of all 31 provinces in China are discussed firstly, spatial-temporal process of coal flow among regions in province scale are studied secondly, and driving force of the change of temporal-spatial process of coal flowing are explored lastly. The dynamic characteristics of coal interprovincial flow from the 1st FYP to the 10th FYP are: quantity of interprovincial coal flow increase gradually with the average annual increase rate of export and import reaching 5.9% and 5.6% respectively. The range of interprovincial coal flow extends gradually, for example, the number of province that has no interprovincial coal flow reduced from 10 in 1957 to 2 in 2005. Spatial structure of interprovincial coal flow can be depicted as that output stream concentrated on few provinces, while a great number of provinces need to input coal from other provinces to satisfy industrial and domestic demand. The number of export provinces is less than that of import provinces, while the ratio of export coal of the primacy exporter in total coal export is more than that of import coal of the primary importer in total coal import. The main driving forces of temporal-spatial change of interprovincial coal flow lie in: (1) the deficit between coal production and consumption is the primary driving force of coal regional flow. The coal production is more than coal consumption in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and some provinces in Northwest and Southwest China, while the coal consumption is more than coal production of most provinces in eastern China, southern China and Northeast China. So coal flow from the north to the south, and flow from the west to the east is the spatial pattern of coal regional flow in China. (2) To perfect transportation can facilitate coal regional flow. Provinces with road density index being above 20 can transport coal out smoothly, while it is difficult to do so for provinces with road density index under 20 in 2005. Besides, making infrastructure layout assort with coal production distribution can boost coal regional flow. (3) Regional price differentia is a signal of coal regional flow, which can influence the direction and quantity of coal regional flow.
Key words： resource flow; coal; province scale; regional type; spatial-temporal process; driving force; China
[1] Cheng Shengkui. Approach to issues of resources science. Resources Sciences, 1998, 20(2): 1-10.
[成升魁. 资源科学几 个问题探讨. 资源科学, 1998, 20(2): 1-10.]
[2] Anderberg S. Industrial metabolism and the linkages between economics, ethics and the environment. Ecological Economics, 1998, 24(2-3): 311-320.
[3] Su Yun, Cheng Shengkui. Analysis to flowing characteristics of forest resource and its products in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(6): 734-741.
[苏筠, 成升魁. 我国森林资源及其产品流动特征分析. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(6): 734-741.]
[4] Cheng Shengkui, Min Qingwen, Yan Lizhen. From static assessment to dynamic processing: Resources flow and its contents and methods. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(3): 407-414.
[成升魁, 闵庆文, 闫丽珍. 从静态的断面分 析到动态的过程评价: 兼论资源流动的研究内容与方法. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(3): 407-414.]
[5] Adriansse A, Bringezu S, Hammod A (ed.). Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economics. Washington D. C., USA: World Resource Institute, 1997.
[6] Hinterberger F, Luks F, Schmidt Bleek F. Material flows vs. natural capital: What makes an economy sustainable? Ecological Economics, 1997, 23(1): 1-14.
[7] Sundkvist A, Jansson A, Enefalk A et al. Energy flow analysis as a tool for developing a sustainable society: A case study of a Swedish island. Resources Conservation and Recycling, 1999, 25(3/4): 289-299.
[8] Vanek F M. Analysis of the potential for spatial redistribution of freight using mathematical programming. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001, 131(1): 62-77.
[9] Warell L. Defining geographic coal markets using price data and shipments data. Energy Policy, 2005, 33 (17): 2216-2230.
[10] Wang Yinghong, Guo Dazhi, Zhang Hairong et al. Spatial distribution and applications of coal resource potential in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006, 21(2): 225-230.
[汪应宏, 郭达志, 张海荣等.我国煤炭资源势的空间分布 及其应用. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(2):225-230.]
[11] Wang Zhihong, Liu Zhibing, Zhu Yanping et al. Comments on the feature of regional coal market and the price. Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science), 1998, 17(1): 19-21.
[王志宏, 刘志斌, 朱延平等. 论我国 区域煤炭市场及其价格特征. 辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版), 1998, 17(1): 19-21.]
[12] Zhao Yuan, Yu Peng. The spatial pattern of coal flow and flowing channel in China. Economic Geography, 2007, 27 (2): 196-200.
[赵媛, 于鹏. 我国煤炭资源空间流动的基本格局与流输通道. 经济地理, 2007, 27(2): 196-200.]
[13] Todd D, Zhang L. Ports and coal transfer-hub of China energy supply policy. Energy Policy, 1994, 22(7): 609-622.
[14] Todd D. China's energy needs, coal transfers and the ports sector. Geoforum, 1997, 28(1): 39-53.
[15] Wang Yujun, Xu Jian. Coal development in China: Patterns for sustainable development. China Coal, 1997, 23 (5): 11-16.
[王玉浚, 徐剑. 可持续发展的煤炭开发布局: 煤炭工业可持续发展几个重要领域的研究之四. 中国煤炭, 1997, 23(5): 11-16.]
[16] Li Xuegang, Jin Sanqun. Coal market should be built and in operation. China Coal, 2005, 31(1): 17-19.
[李学刚, 靳三 群. 亟待建立并发挥煤炭交易市场的作用. 中国煤炭, 2005, 31(1): 17-19.]
[17] Department of Plan & Development of Ministry of Coal Industry of China. The Assembly of Statistic Data of Coal Industry in China (1949-1991). 1993.
[煤炭工业部规划发展司. 中国煤炭工业统计资料汇编1949-1991. 1993.]
[18] State Safety Supervision Bureau of Coal Mine of China. Editorial Department of Coal Industrial Yearbook. Coal Industrial Yearbook of China (1991-2005). Beijing: China Coal Industry Publishing House, 1992-2005.
[国家煤矿安全 监察局( 原国家煤炭工业部) , 《中国煤炭工业年鉴》编辑部. 中国煤炭工业年鉴1991-2005. 北京: 煤炭工业出版 社, 1992-2005.]
[19] Lu Dadao. The Theory and Practice of Industrial Layout in China. Beijing: Science Press, 1989. 22-24.
[陆大道. 中国 工业布局的理论与实践. 北京: 科学出版社, 1989. 22-84.]
[20] Pan Wei'er. Remove the five barriers that interrupt reform to induce market mechanism in coal price. China Coal, 2004, 30(12): 17-19.
[潘伟尔. 破除煤炭价格机制市场改革的五大障碍. 中国煤炭, 2004, 30(12): 17-19.]
[21] Mao Jiehua, Xu Huilong. China's coal resource distribution and perspective prediction. Coal Geology & Exploration, 1999, 27(3): 1-4.
[毛节华, 许惠龙. 中国煤炭资源分布现状和远景预测. 煤田地质与勘探, 1999, 27(3): 1-4.]
[22] Department of Industry and Transport Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics, Energy Bureau of National Development and Reform Commission. China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2006. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2007.
[国家统计局 工交司和国家发展改革委员会能源局. 中国能源统计年鉴2006. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2007.]
[23] Portes R, Rey H. The determinants of cross-border equity flows. Journal of International Economics, 2005, 65 (2): 269-296.
[24] Zhang Tonggong, Lei Zhongmin. Analysis on fundamental and second factors that influence coal price. Energy of China, 2005, 27(12): 16-19.
[张同功, 雷仲敏. 煤炭价格波动的影响因素分析. 中国能源, 2005, 27(12): 16-19.]
[25] Wu Yin. Coal price controlled by cost, influenced by transportation. In: Yue Fubin (ed.). Coal Price and Coal Economic Sustainable Development. Beijing: Social Science Academic Press (China), 2005. 60-63.
[吴吟. 煤价既受成 本控制也受运输影响. 见: 岳福斌主编. 煤炭价格与煤炭经济可持续发展. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2005. 60-63.]
[26] Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2006: Coal Forecast, 98-102. http://www.eia.doe. gov/oiaf/archive/aeo06/pdf/trend_5.pdf
[27] Zhang Fuming, Jing Puqiu. Analysis on the fund for sustainable development of coal industry and its effect. China Industrial Economy, 2006, (9): 30-37.
[张复明, 景普秋. 煤炭工业可持续发展基金及其效应分析. 中国工业经济, 2006, (9): 30-37.]
[28] Su Ligong. Tentative frame to improve accounting system of coal cost. Coal Economic Research, 2006, (6): 4-10.
[苏 立功. 关于完善煤炭成本核算框架的构想. 煤炭经济研究, 2006, (6): 4-10.]
[29] Wang Runping, Chen Kai. Causes of poverty and anti-poverty strategies in resource rich area: A case study in Shanxi province. Resources Science, 2006, 28(4): 158-165.
[王闰平, 陈凯. 资源富集地区经济贫困的成因与对策研究: 以山 西省为例. 资源科学, 2006, 28(4): 158-165.]
[30] Chen G Q, Chen B. Resource analysis of the Chinese society 1980-2002 based on exergy (Part 1): Fossil fuels and energy minerals. Energy Policy, 2007, 35: 2038-2050.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |