地理学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 78 ›› Issue (8): 1955-1968.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202308007

• 人口与城市研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中心城市产业结构对腹地城市人口增长及区域城市体系演化的影响

李佳洺1(), 孙东琪1, 姜炎鹏2()   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101
    2.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2022-02-22 修回日期:2023-04-17 出版日期:2023-08-25 发布日期:2023-08-15
  • 通讯作者: 姜炎鹏(1984-), 男, 安徽青阳人, 博士, 教授, 研究方向为全球城市与区域发展。E-mail: yanpjiang@163.com
  • 作者简介:李佳洺(1984-), 男, 山西阳城人, 副研究员, 主要从事产业区位与区域发展研究。E-mail: lijm@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    第二次青藏高原综合考察研究(2019QZKK0406);国家自然科学基金项目(42171178)

The influence of the industrial structure of central cities on surrounding cities and regional urban systems

LI Jiaming1(), SUN Dongqi1, JIANG Yanpeng2()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2022-02-22 Revised:2023-04-17 Published:2023-08-25 Online:2023-08-15
  • Supported by:
    The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(2019QZKK0406);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171178)

摘要:

从产业异质性的角度,实证分析区域中心城市产业结构对周边城市人口增长的作用过程和机制,并进一步探究了产业结构对于区域城市体系的极化和均衡演化的影响。结果表明:① 制造业强化了中心城市的溢出效应,促进了周边城市人口的增长,而服务业则弱化了溢出效应,对周边城市的增长具有抑制作用;② 以制造业为主的区域中心城市由于相对较小的城市规模和较强的溢出效应,更容易形成相对均衡的区域城市体系,而以服务业为主的区域中心城市,更倾向形成相对极化的区域城市体系;③ 产业结构与周边城市人口增长呈现倒“U”型关系,即中心城市制造业或服务业占比过低或过高都不利于周边城市的人口增长。

关键词: 产业区域空间效应, 产业结构, 城市增长, 极化与均衡, 区域城市体系

Abstract:

The study of the new economic geography has paid attention to the polarization and balanced development of urban systems. In reality, however, transport accessibility is subject to great uncertainty in explaining the polarization and balance of the urban system. In fact, the polarization or equilibrium of the regional urban system is not only unique in China, but also a general phenomenon in countries with different development outcomes, political systems and degrees of marketization. From the perspective of industrial heterogeneity, this study empirically analyzes the process and mechanism of the industrial structure of regional central cities on the population growth of neighboring cities in China from 1980 to 2020, and examines the influence of industrial structure on the polarization and equilibrium development of the regional urban system. The results show that, firstly, the manufacturing sector strengthens the spillover effect from the core city and promotes the population growth in neighboring cities, while the service sector weakens the spillover effect and hinders the growth in neighboring cities. Secondly, the manufacturing-oriented cities have relatively small city scale, while the service-oriented cities are relatively large. Therefore, the driving effect of manufacturing-oriented central cities on the neighboring cities is larger, which tends to produce a relatively balanced regional city system. Correspondently, the spillover effect of service-oriented central cities on the neighboring cities is smaller, which tends to form a relatively polarized regional city system. Finally, as the share of services in the industrial structure of central cities continues to rise, China's urban system may become more polarized rather than balanced. Certainly, the higher the proportion of manufacturing in the central city, the more balanced the regional urban system is. In fact, the empirical results show that the industrial structure and the spillover effect of the core city have an inverted U-shaped relationship, i.e. a high proportion of manufacturing or services weakens the driving effect of the core city on surrounding cities. The reasons for this vary. The high proportion of manufacturing and the small size of the central city have a limited spillover effect on the neighboring cities and therefore can hardly drive their growth; while the high proportion of service industry and the negative effect of the service industry on the spillover effect lead to the slow development of the neighboring small-and-medium-sized cities. It is worth noting that because of the significant spatial impact of industry on the urban system, the future regional urbanization strategy should be coordinated with the industrial strategy. More importantly, with the gradual liberalization of the household registration system, industry selection can become an effective policy option for macro-control of the regional urban system.

Key words: industrial structure, urban population growth, polarization and equilibrium, regional urban system