资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用

doi:10.11821/dlxb201908006

地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (8): 1563-1575.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201908006

资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用

牛方曲^1,²,封志明¹,刘慧¹

^1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
^2. 中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心,昆明 650500

收稿日期:2018-07-05 修回日期:2019-05-25 出版日期:2019-08-25 发布日期:2019-08-07
作者简介:牛方曲(1979-), 男, 安徽淮南人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事区域、城市可持续发展模拟分析研究。E-mail: <email>niufq@lreis.ac.cn</email>
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0503506);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA19040401);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA20080100)

Evaluation of resources environmental carrying capacity and its application in industrial restructuring in Tibet, China

NIU Fangqu^1,²,FENG Zhiming¹,LIU Hui¹

^1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
^2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Geopolitical Setting of Southwest China and Borderland Development, Kunming 650500, China

Received:2018-07-05 Revised:2019-05-25 Online:2019-08-25 Published:2019-08-07
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program(2016YFC0503506);The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19040401);The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20080100)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

经济的快速发展造成资源的过度消耗和环境恶化,资源环境承载力研究逐渐得以关注。本文构建了产业、人口、经济、资源、环境综合分析框架,该框架首先评价各产业对区域社会经济的重要性,确定产业结构调整方向;进而分析产业、人口与资源环境间相互作用机制,明晰产业经济、人口规模与资源利用、环境污染的关系;然后开展资源环境承载力综合评价,为实现环境友好、资源有效利用前提下的最大社会经济发展规模提供依据。西藏自治区案例研究结果显示,有色金属矿采选业、旅游业、酒饮料和精制茶制造业对当地社会经济系统有着重要作用,成为支柱产业;不同发展情景的资源环境承载力评价,确定了资源环境限制下各种产业结构调整所能支撑的最大人口和经济规模,为区域产业发展提供决策依据。本文所构建的分析框架可为实现“社会经济—资源环境”系统可持续发展提供决策支撑。该框架的建立增强了资源环境承载力评价方法在辅助决策方面的可操作性,有助于推进区域资源环境承载力理论研究和实践应用。

关键词: 资源环境承载力, 产业结构, 评价方法, 可持续发展, 西藏

Abstract:

As natural resources are experiencing rapid reduction and the environment is degenerating, resource environmental carrying capacity has attracted more and more attention in China. However, current research on resource environmental carrying capacity still stays at theoretical level leaving the gap with applications. Moreover, the study conclusions are usually not of policy implications and lack of operability. This study develops a comprehensive analytical framework for the co-development of industries, population, economy, resources and environment. The framework first evaluates the importance of all industries to local social economy and determines the direction of industrial structure adjustment, and then identifies the interaction relationships among the socioeconomic development, resource consumption and environment emission, and subsequently evaluates the resource environmental carrying capacity, which helps achieve the maximum socio-economic development under the premise of environmental protection and efficient resource utilization. The Tibet case study estimates the local resource environmental carrying capacity under different development scenarios and therefore determines the maximum population and economic scale through industrial structure adjustments under the constraints of resource and environment. The results show that to focus on the development of tourism can significantly improve the resource environmental carrying capacity of Tibet. The results could help make decision regarding local industrial structure adjustments to achieve sustainable development. In conclusion the proposed analytical framework provides an operational decision support tool for "socio-ecological" sustainability. It can be extended to other regions through minor parameter adjustments.

Key words: resource environmental carrying capacity (RECC), industrial structure, evaluation method, sustainable development, Tibet

牛方曲, 封志明, 刘慧. 资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(8): 1563-1575.

NIU Fangqu, FENG Zhiming, LIU Hui. Evaluation of resources environmental carrying capacity and its application in industrial restructuring in Tibet, China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(8): 1563-1575.

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产业	GDP	产业影响力系数	产业感应度系数	产业潜力
产业1	X₁₁	X₁₂	X₁₃	X₁₄
产业2	X₂₁	X₂₂	X₂₃	X₂₄
产业3	X₃₁	X₃₂	X₃₃	X₃₄
…	…	…	…	…
产业m	X_m₁	X_m₂	X_m₃	X_m₄

层级	产业	重要性	排序
第一类 (支柱产业)	有色金属矿采选业	0.617	1
	旅游业	0.333	2
	酒饮料和精制茶制造业	0.182	3
第二类 (一般性产业)	医药制造业	0.154	4
	化学原料及化学制品制造业	0.137	5
	印刷业和记录媒介的复制	0.132	6
	造纸及纸制品业	0.127	7
	文教、工美、体育和娱乐用品制造业	0.127	8
	食品制造业	0.118	9
	农副食品加工业	0.116	10
第三类 (辅助性产业)	电力热力生产供应业	0.078	11
	非金属矿物制品业	0.074	12
	黑色金属矿采选业	0.053	13
	纺织业	0.047	14
	木材加工和木、竹、藤、棕草制品业	0.033	15
	电器机械及器材制造业	0.030	16
	非金属矿采选业	0.017	17

层级	产业	水资源消耗 (m³/万元)	COD (kg/万元)	土地利用 (hm²/亿元)
第一层级	有色金属矿采选业	106.5	4.88	112.63
	旅游业	24.63	9.85	2.88
	酒饮料和精制茶制造业	79.4	12.09	33.19
第二层级	医药制造业	48.74	5.44	15.98
	化学原料及化学制品制造业	100.8	6.37	35.83
	印刷业和记录媒介的复制	19.8	0.32	1.27
	造纸及纸制品业	450.33	90.28	188.41
	文教、工美、体育和娱乐用品制造业	20.68	0.22	1.02
	食品制造业	60.72	6.44	20.82
	农副食品加工业	93.73	12.46	30.59
第三层级	电力热力生产供应业	908.46	0.69	200.00
	非金属矿物制品业	43.62	0.93	71.01
	黑色金属矿采选业	93.85	1.14	16.23
	纺织业	160.44	7.02	31.51
	木材加工和木、竹、藤、棕草制品业	34.32	1.54	12.85
	电器机械及器材制造业	11.89	0.18	0.12
	非金属矿采选业	133.53	1.75	36.58

承载力分项	保持现有模式		着力发展支柱产业、淘汰辅助性产业		着力发展旅游业
承载力分项	人口(亿人)	经济(万亿元)	人口(亿人)	经济(万亿元)	人口(亿人)	经济(万亿元)
水资源承载力	4.05	12.84	24.98	79.12	33.34	105.63
水环境承载力	2.25	7.41	1.93	6.11	2.08	6.58
土地资源承载力	0.04	0.12	0.05	0.17	0.25	0.79

资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用

Evaluation of resources environmental carrying capacity and its application in industrial restructuring in Tibet, China

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