地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (3): 293-300.doi: 10.11821/xb201003004

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国中东部逐时雨强时空分布及重现期的估算

姚莉1, 赵声蓉1, 赵翠光1, 周兵2, 张静3, 薛峰1   

  1. 1. 国家气象中心，北京100081；
    2. 国家气候中心，北京100081；
    3. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院，南京210044
  • 收稿日期:2009-09-12 修回日期:2010-01-20 出版日期:2010-03-30 发布日期:2010-07-24
  • 作者简介:姚莉, 女, 高工, 硕士。研究方向: 气候分析与数据应用。E-mail: yaohare98@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2008M03); 中国气象局2008 年基础建设项目( [2008] 164 号)

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Hourly Rain Intensity and Recurrence Periods in Eastern and Central China

YAO Li1, ZHAO Sheng-rong1, ZHAO Cui-guang1, ZHOU Bing2, ZHANG Jing3, XUE Feng1   

  1. 1. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. The Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2009-09-12 Revised:2010-01-20 Online:2010-03-30 Published:2010-07-24
  • Supported by:

    China Meteorological Administration Project for New Technique, No.CMATG2008M03; ChinaMeteorological Administration Infrastructural Project, No.[2008]164

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摘要：

基于我国1991-2005 年逐小时的降水观测资料，利用概率分布、统计检验与极值分布等方法,分析研究了我国中东部地区逐时降水强度的时空分布特征及一小时最大雨强的50 年、100 年重现期估算等问题。结果表明：对于4 mmh-1以上的较强雨强而言，出现频数最多的地区主要在我国南部沿海地区；长江以南大部地区一小时雨强的最大值为60~80 mmh-1，沿海地区一小时雨强的最大值可以达到80~90 mmh-1；雨强出现频数的日变化在各地区是很不相同的，西南和华南是雨强日变化最明显的地区，4 mmh-1以上量级的检验结果几乎全部都超过0.01 的信度要求；一小时最大雨强50、100 年重现期估算值的空间分布形态具有一致性，高值区主要在东南沿海一带，50 年、100年一遇的一小时雨强达80~120 mmh-1、100~150 mmh-1。

关键词: 一小时雨强, 概率分布, 极值分布, 日变化, 重现期, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the observed hourly precipitation data over China from 1991 to 2005, thetemporal and spatial distributions of hourly rain intensity and the recurrence periods for 50 or100 years are analyzed by using probability distribution, statistical test and extreme valueanalysis. The results show that for the purposes of the rain intensity more than 4 mmh-1, themaximum values are mainly distributed in the south coastal areas. The maximum value ofhourly rain intensity is 60-80 mm h-1 in most parts south of the Yangtze River, and 80-90 mmh-1 in the coastal areas. The diurnal variation of the rainfall intensity frequency occurred inregions are quite different. Southwest and South China are the regions featured by distinctdiurnal variation of rainfall intensity. All the test results of rain intensity more than 4 mm h-1reach 0.01 reliability. As for the estimated values of 50- and 100-year recurrence periods ofone-hour maximum rainfall intensity, it seems that spatial distribution of their patterns areconsistent. The maximum value areas are mainly distributed in coastal southeast China, wherethe maximum values of hourly rain intensity occurring once in a century and once in a halfcentury are up to 100-150 mm h-1 and 80-120 mm h-1, respectively.

Key words: extreme value distribution, diurnal variation, recurrence period, China, hourly rain intensity, probability distribution