地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (8): 1590-1604.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201908008
高超1,汪丽2,陈财1,罗纲1,孙艳伟1
收稿日期:
2018-04-10
修回日期:
2019-05-26
出版日期:
2019-08-25
发布日期:
2019-08-07
作者简介:
高超(1978-), 男, 安徽全椒人, 博士, 教授, 研究方向为气候变化与水文水资源。E-mail: 基金资助:
GAO Chao1,WANG Li2,CHEN Cai1,LUO Gang1,SUN Yanwei1
Received:
2018-04-10
Revised:
2019-05-26
Online:
2019-08-25
Published:
2019-08-07
Supported by:
摘要:
基于全球潮汐和浪涌再分析数据集,利用数字高程模型在ArcGIS空间分析工具支持下,提取了中国大陆沿海11个省市海平面上升可能淹没范围,结合人口、经济、土地利用数据构建海平面上升风险暴露度评估模型,评估中国大陆沿海地区海平面上升风险的人口和经济暴露度。结果表明:① 海平面上升风险可能淹没范围主要集中在长三角及苏北沿海、珠三角和环渤海等滨海平原地区,其中可能淹没范围最大的是江苏、上海等长三角地区;土地利用类型中受影响最严重的为耕地,约占受影响总面积的65%,其次为建设用地;② 基于2015年人口、经济统计数据,随着海平面上升水位值重现期的变化(10 a一遇至1000 a一遇),海平面上升风险影响的人口和经济总量逐渐增加;对海平面上升风险暴露度而言,广州是暴露度等级最高的城市,高暴露度等级的区域仍集中于长三角及苏北沿海、珠三角、环渤海地区;③ 基于5种共享社会经济路径预估的人口和经济统计数据,随着海平面上升水位值重现期的变化,2025年和2100年受影响的人口、经济总量在不同路径下均呈增长趋势,常规发展路径下受影响的人口和经济总量最大,局部或不一致发展路径和不均衡发展路径下受影响的人口、经济低于其他3种路径;从重现期角度看,10 a一遇至1000 a一遇海平面上升风险的人口、经济暴露度向高暴露度等级转移;对比2025和2100年两时段的人口、经济暴露度,2100年的暴露度等级整体低于2025年。
高超,汪丽,陈财,罗纲,孙艳伟. 海平面上升风险中国大陆沿海地区人口与经济暴露度[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(8): 1590-1604.
GAO Chao,WANG Li,CHEN Cai,LUO Gang,SUN Yanwei. Population and economic risk exposure in coastal regionof China under sea level rise[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(8): 1590-1604.
表8
共享经济路径下暴露度等级格网数量"
2025年 | 2100年 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
等级 | SSP1 | SSP2 | SSP3 | SSP4 | SSP5 | SSP1 | SSP2 | SSP3 | SSP4 | SSP5 | ||
重现期10 a | 极低 | 145 | 145 | 144 | 145 | 144 | 145 | 145 | 144 | 145 | 144 | |
低 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 27 | ||
中 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | ||
高 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | ||
极高 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | ||
重现期100 a | 极低 | 137 | 136 | 136 | 137 | 137 | 155 | 151 | 148 | 156 | 146 | |
低 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 26 | 29 | ||
中 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | ||
高 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
极高 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | ||
重现期1000 a | 极低 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 129 | 153 | 149 | 146 | 154 | 144 | |
低 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 26 | 28 | 33 | 26 | 28 | ||
中 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 13 | ||
高 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | ||
极高 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
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