河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征

doi:10.11821/xb201211005

地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (11): 1482-1492.doi: 10.11821/xb201211005

河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征

孟秀敬^1,2, 张士锋¹, 张永勇¹

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京100101;
2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京100049

收稿日期:2012-08-06 修回日期:2012-09-12 出版日期:2012-11-20 发布日期:2012-11-20
通讯作者: 张士锋(1965-),男,湖北省江陵县人,博士,副研究员,中国地理学会会员(S110001622M),主要从事水文学与水资源研究。E-mail:zhangsf@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:孟秀敬(1986-),女,硕士,自然地理专业水文资源研究方向。E-mail:xiujing_meng@hotmail.com
基金资助:
国家重点基础发展计划(2012CB955304)

The Temporal and Spatial Change of Temperature and Precipitation in Hexi Corridor in Recent 57 Years

MENG Xiujing^1,2, ZHANG Shifeng¹, ZHANG Yongyong¹

1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2012-08-06 Revised:2012-09-12 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2012-11-20
Supported by:
National Key Foundation Projects, No.2012CB955304]

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用滑动平均、线性回归等趋势分析方法以及Mann-Kendall、Pettitt 和累积距平三种突变检验方法对河西走廊地区1955-2011 年的气温和降水两个指标进行研究, 从而揭示该地区气候变化的事实及趋势。研究显示河西走廊地区的气温在过去57 年呈显著上升趋势, 升温率是IPCC第四次报告中近50 年变暖率的两倍, 达0.27℃/10a, 并且在1986 年发生增温突变;四季气温中, 冬季气温升高对年气温上升贡献最大。河西走廊年降水量在研究时段内呈显著增加趋势, 降水增率为3.95 mm/10a, 但各个流域增加趋势并不显著;雨季降水量呈不显著的增加趋势, 其年际变化与年降水量一致, 雨季降水增量对年降水量增加贡献率大;河西走廊年降水量未发生突变, 雨季降水量在1968 年发生增加突变。河西走廊温度升高, 降水量增加, 总体向暖湿化发展, 这种变化对该地区水资源脆弱性的影响需要进一步研究。

关键词: 气候变化, 趋势, 突变, 河西走廊

Abstract: In this study, monthly temperature and precipitation time series from 1955 to 2011 of 12 meteorological stations were collected and means of linear regression, moving average, Mann-Kendall test, accumulated variance analysis and Pettitt were used to diagnose the behavior of temperature and precipitation so as to reveal the regional climate change facts and its trends. The results showed that the average annual temperature in the Hexi Corridor increased significantly in recent 57 years, and its increasing rate was 0.27℃/10a which was twice the level of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report announced, and its abrupt changes were mainly detected in 1986. The seasonal average temperature in this region had an evident uptrend and the trend was most significant in winter. The annual average precipitation change trend rate was 3.95 mm/10a which had a significant rising trend at statistical significance level, but it was insignificant in its three basins. The rainy season precipitation which had the same fluctuation change as the annual precipitation presented no significant uptrend. There were no consistent abrupt changes observed of the precipitation in this study area, but the rainy season precipitation abrupt changes were mainly observed in 1968. With the increase of temperature and precipitation, warming and wetting is evident in this study area.

Key words: Hexi Corridor, climate change, trend analysis, abrupt change

孟秀敬, 张士锋, 张永勇. 河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11): 1482-1492.

MENG Xiujing, ZHANG Shifeng, ZHANG Yongyong. The Temporal and Spatial Change of Temperature and Precipitation in Hexi Corridor in Recent 57 Years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(11): 1482-1492.

参考文献

[1] Zhang Jianyun, Wang Guoqing, Liu Jiufu et al. Introduction of IPCC Reports. China Water Resources, 2008, 2: 38-40.[张建云, 王国庆, 刘九夫等. 气候变化权威报告—IPCC报告. 气候变化影响评估, 2008, 2: 38-40.]

[2] Lin Xiang, Qian Weihong. Trends on the daily mean air temperature and its anomalous strength in China for the warmseason in the last 40 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(9): 21-30. [林祥, 钱维宏. 近40 年中国暖季日气温及其异常强度变化趋势. 地理学报, 2003, 58(9): 21-30.]

[3] Yin Yunhe, Wu Shaohong, Chen Gang. Regional difference of climate trend and abrupt climate change in China during1961-2006. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(12): 2147-2157. [尹云鹤, 吴绍红, 陈刚. 1961-2006 年我国气候变化趋势与突变的区域差异. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(12): 2147-2157.]

[4] Zuo Jinqing, Wang Jiemin, Huang Jianping et al. Estimation of ground heat flux and its impact on the surface energybudget for a semi-arid grassland. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2011, 3(1): 41-50.

[5] Qin Dahe, Ding Yihui, Wang Shaowu et al. Ecological and environmental change in West China and its responsestrategy. Advance in Earth Sciences, 2002, 17(3): 314-319. [秦大河, 丁一汇, 王绍武等. 中国西部生态环境变化与对策建议. 地球科学进展, 2002, 17(3): 314-319.]

[6] Wang Shaowu, Cai Jingning. Climate change of annual precipitation in western China. Journal of Natural Resources,2002, 17(4): 415-422. [王绍武, 蔡静宁. 中国西部年降水量的气候变化. 自然资源学报, 2002, 17(4): 415-422]

[7] Shi Yafeng, Shen Junping, Hu Ruji. Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift fromwarm-dry to warm-humid in Northwest China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2002, 24(3): 219-226. [施雅风,沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步研究. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3): 219-226.]

[8] Liu Chunzhen. The vulnerability of water resources in Northwest China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2003,25(3): 309-314.

[9] Li Zhanling, Xu Zongxue. Detection of change points in temperature and precipitation time series in the Heihe RiverBasin over the past 50 years. Resources Science, 2011, 33(10): 1877-1882. [李占玲, 徐宗学. 近50 年来黑河流域气温和降水量突变特征分析. 资源科学, 2011, 33(10): 1877-1882.]

[10] Lan Yongchao, Ding Yongjian, Kang Ersi. Variations and trends of temperature and precipitation in the mountaindrainage basin of the Heihe River in recent 50 years. Plateau Meteorology, 2004, 23(5): 723-727. [蓝永超, 丁永建, 康尔泗. 近50 年来黑河山区汇流区气温及降水变化趋势. 高原气象, 2004, 23(5): 723-727.]

[11] Liu Xiaoyun, Yue Ping, Xu Dianxiang. Analysis on the characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Jiuquansince recent 54 years. Arid Zone Research, 2006, 23(3): 495-499. [刘晓云, 岳平, 徐殿祥. 酒泉市最近54a 气温和降水特征分析. 干旱区研究, 2006, 23(3): 495-499.]

[12] Jia Wenxiong, He Yuanqing, Li Zongsheng et al. Regional characteristics of climatic change trend and break duringlast 50 years in Hexi Corridor. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2008, 28(4): 525-531. [贾文雄, 何元庆, 李宗省等. 近50年河西走廊平原区气候变化的区域特征及突变分析. 地理科学, 2008, 28(4): 525-531.]

[13] Wang Suping, Song Lianchun, Han Yongxiang et al. Analysis on mean abrupt change of precipitation in Hexi Corridorregion in recent 50 years. Plateau Meteorology, 2011, 30(5): 1286-1293. [王素萍, 宋连春, 韩永翔等. 近50 年河西走廊地区降水均值突变特征分析. 高原气象, 2011, 30(5): 1286-1293.]

[14] Gao Zhenrong, Tian Qingming, Lliu Xiaoyun et al. Characteristics and abrupt change of temperature in the Hexicorridor in recent 58 years. Arid Zone Research, 2010, 27(2): 194-203. [高振荣, 田庆明, 刘晓云等. 近58 年河西走廊地区气温变化及突变分析. 干旱区研究, 2010, 27(2): 194-203.]

[15] Li Shiming, Cheng Guodong, Li Yuanhong et al. Rational Utilization of Water Resources and Ecological EnvironmentProtection in Hexi Corridor. Zhengzhou: Yellow River Conservancy Press, 2002: 9-10. [李世明, 程国栋, 李元红等. 河西走廊水资源合理利用与生态环境保护. 郑州: 黄河水利出版社, 2002: 2-3.]

[16] Jia Wenxiong. Temporal and spatial changes of precipitation in Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor during 1960-2009.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(5): 631-644. [贾文雄. 近50 年来祁连山及河西走廊降水的时空变化. 地理学报,2012, 67(5): 631-644.]

[17] Chen Shaoyong, Lin Shu, Wang Jinsong et al. Rainy season characteristics in West China and impact of the plateaumonsoon. Journal of Desert Research, 2011, 31(3): 765-773. [陈少勇, 林纾, 王劲松等. 中国西部雨季特征及高原季风对其影响的研究. 中国沙漠, 2011, 31(3): 765-773.]

[18] Wu Shaohong, Yin Yunhe, Zheng Du et al. Climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau during the last three decades. ActaGeographica Sinica, 2005, 60(1): 3-11. [吴绍洪, 尹云鹤, 郑度等. 青藏高原近30 年气候变化趋势. 地理学报, 2005,60(1): 3-11.]

[19] Yi Xiangsheng, Yin Yanyu, Li Guosheng et al. Temperature variation in recent 50 years in the Three-River HeadwatersRegion of Qinghai Province. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(11): 1451-1465. [易湘生, 尹衍雨, 李国胜等. 青海三江源地区近50 年来的气温变化. 地理学报, 2011, 66(11): 1451-1465.

[20] Pettitt A N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl. Statist., 1979, 23(2): 126-135.

[21] Zhang Yongyong, Zhang Shifeng, Zhai Xiaoyan et al. Runoff variation in the three rivers source region and itsresponse to climate change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(1): 71-82. [张永勇, 张士锋, 翟晓燕等. 三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应. 地理学报, 2010, 67(1): 71-82.]

[22] Wang Jinsong, Fei Xiaoling, Wei Feng. Further study of temperature change in Northwest China in recent 50 years.Journal of Desert Research, 2008, 28(4): 724-732. [王劲松, 费晓玲, 魏锋. 中国西北近50a 来气温变化特征的进一步研究. 中国沙漠, 2008, 28(4): 724 -732.]

[23] Ren Guoyu, Xu Mingzhi, Chu Ziying et al. Changes of surface air temperature in China during 1951-2004. Climaticand Environmental Research, 2005, 10(4): 717-727. [任国玉, 徐铭志, 初子莹等. 近54 年中国地面气温变化. 气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4): 717-727.]

[24] Ren Zhangxia, Yang Dayuan. Study on the division and trends of temperature variation in northwest arid area ofChina in recent 50 years. Journal of Arid and Environment, 2006, 20(1): 99-103. [任朝霞, 杨达源. 近50a 西北干旱区气温分区及其变化趋势研究. 干旱区资源与环境, 2006, 20(1): 99-103.]

[25] Liu Shiyin, Ding Yongjian. Glaciers in response to recent climate warming in western China. Quaternary Sciences,2006, 26(5): 762-771. [刘时银, 丁永建. 中国西部冰川对近期气候变暖的响应. 第四纪研究, 2006, 26(5): 762-771.]

[26] Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu. National Assessment Report of Climate Change (I). Advance in Climate Change Research,2006, 2(1): 3-8.[丁一汇, 任国玉. 气候变化国家评估报告(I). 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1):3-8.]

[27] Duan Jianping, Wang Lili, Ren Jiawen et al. Progress in Glacier Variations in China and Its Sensitivity to ClimaticChange during the Past Century. Progress in Geography, 2009, 28(02): 231-237. [段建平, 王丽丽, 任贾文等. 近百年来中国冰川变化及其对气候变化的敏感性研究进展. 地理科学进展, 2009, 28(02): 231-237.]

[28] Du Werntao, Qin Xiang, Liu Yushuo et al. Variation of the Laohugou Glacier No.12 in the Qilian Mountains. Journalof Glaciology and Geocryology, 2008, 30(3): 373-379. [杜文涛, 秦翔, 刘宇硕等. 1958-2005 年祁连山老虎沟12 号冰川变化特征研究. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30(3): 373-379.]

[29] Liu Xiaolong, An Zhisheng, Fang Jiangang et al. Possible variations of precipitation over the Yellow River Valleyunder the global-warming conditions. Scientia Geographica sinica, 2002, 22(5): 513-519. [刘晓东, 安芷生, 方建刚等.全球气候变暖条件下黄河流域降水的可能变化. 地理科学, 2002, 22(5): 513-519.]

[30] Bao Chao, Fang Chuanglin. Study on the quantitative relationship between urbanization and water resources utilizationin the Hexi Corridor. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006, 21(2): 301-310. [鲍超, 方创琳. 河西走廊城市化与水资源利用关系的量化研究. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(2): 301-310.]

[31] Yin Xianzhi, Zhang Qiang, Xu Qiyun et al. Characteristics of climate change in Qilian Mountains region in recent 50years. Plateau Meteorology, 2009, 28(1): 85-90. [尹宪志, 张强, 徐启运等. 近50 年来祁连山区气候变化特征研究. 高原气象, 2009, 28(1): 85-90.]

河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征

The Temporal and Spatial Change of Temperature and Precipitation in Hexi Corridor in Recent 57 Years

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	李哲, 丁永建, 陈艾姣, 张智华, 张世强. 1960—2019年西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[2]	王少剑, 高爽, 黄永源, 史晨怡. 基于超效率SBM模型的中国城市碳排放绩效时空演变格局及预测[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1316-1330.
[3]	金凯, 王飞, 韩剑桥, 史尚渝, 丁文斌. 1982—2015年中国气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 961-974.
[4]	李双双, 汪成博, 延军平, 刘宪锋. 面向事件过程的秦岭南北极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 989-1007.
[5]	田晶, 郭生练, 刘德地, 陈启会, 王强, 尹家波, 吴旭树, 何绍坤. 气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.
[6]	周玉科. 中国东北地区植被生产力控制因素分析[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(1): 53-67.
[7]	萧凌波, 闫军辉. 基于地方志的1736-1911年华北秋粮丰歉指数序列重建及其与气候变化的关系[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1777-1788.
[8]	杜军, 胡军, 尼玛吉, 次旺顿珠. 1981-2017年西藏“一江两河”流域5 cm地温及其界限温度时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1821-1834.
[9]	李双双, 延军平, 武亚群, 汪成博. 秦岭—淮河南北供暖格局变化及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(9): 1866-1877.
[10]	佟彪, 党安荣, 许剑. 300 BC-1900 AD无定河流域城镇时空格局演变[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(8): 1508-1524.
[11]	刘娟,姚晓军,刘时银,郭万钦,许君利. 1970-2016年冈底斯山冰川变化[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(7): 1333-1344.
[12]	刘俊,黄莉,孙晓倩,李宁馨,张恒锦. 气候变化对中国观鸟旅游的影响——基于鸟类物候变化的分析[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 912-922.
[13]	马丹阳, 尹云鹤, 吴绍洪, 郑度. 中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.
[14]	王建邦, 赵军, 李传华, 朱钰, 康重阳, 高超. 2001-2015年中国植被覆盖人为影响的时空格局[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(3): 504-519.
[15]	高江波, 焦珂伟, 吴绍洪. 1982-2013年中国植被NDVI空间异质性的气候影响分析[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(3): 534-543.