地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (11): 1505-1514.doi: 10.11821/xb201211007
江聪, 熊立华
收稿日期:
2012-07-24
修回日期:
2012-08-15
出版日期:
2012-11-20
发布日期:
2013-01-07
作者简介:
江聪(1989-),男,河北宁晋人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源方面的研究。E-mail:jc1207@whu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190094); 国家自然科学基金项目(51079098)
JIANG Cong, XIONG Lihua
Received:
2012-07-24
Revised:
2012-08-15
Online:
2012-11-20
Published:
2013-01-07
Supported by:
Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.51190094; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.51079098
摘要: 在变化环境下, 研究非一致性水文序列的变化趋势具有重要意义。常规的趋势分析方法一般只能分析水文序列均值的线性趋势。本文引入GAMLSS模型对宜昌站1882-2009 年间的年平均流量序列和年最小月流量序列分别进行趋势分析, 将序列的趋势分析从均值扩展至均方差(或变差系数)、偏态系数等其他统计参数。研究发现宜昌站年平均流量序列的均值有明显线性减少的趋势, 而宜昌站年最小月流量序列线性趋势不明显。在此基础上, 建立基于多项式回归的GAMLSS模型, 结果表明宜昌站年最小月流量序列并非平稳序列, 其均值表现为非线性的趋势变化, 偏态系数呈现线性的趋势变化。
江聪, 熊立华. 基于GAMLSS 模型的宜昌站年径流序列趋势分析[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11): 1505-1514.
JIANG Cong, XIONG Lihua. Trend Analysis for the Annual Discharge Series of the Yangtze River at the Yichang Hydrological Station Based on GAMLSS[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(11): 1505-1514.
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