未来气候变化对我国南方水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响评估

doi:10.11821/xb201211002

地理学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (11): 1451-1460.doi: 10.11821/xb201211002

未来气候变化对我国南方水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响评估

马欣¹, 吴绍洪², 李玉娥¹, 张雪艳², 高清竹¹, 伍洋¹

1. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京100083;
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101

收稿日期:2012-03-12 修回日期:2012-07-18 出版日期:2012-11-20 发布日期:2012-11-20
通讯作者: 吴绍洪,男,研究员,博士生导师,中国地学学会会员(S110000894M),主要从事综合自然地理与全球变化研究。E-mail:wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:马欣(1980-),男,博士,助理研究员,主要从事气候变化影响评估与适应研究。E-mail:max@ami.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC19B01)

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Seasonal Drought in Main Rice Cropping Regions in the South of China

MA Xin¹, WU Shaohong², LI Yu'e¹, ZHANG Xueyan², GAO Qingzhu¹, WU Yang¹

1. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS, Beijing 100083, China;
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2012-03-12 Revised:2012-07-18 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2012-11-20
Supported by:
National Key Technologies R&D Program, No.2012BAC19B01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究我国水稻主产区季节性干旱受未来气候变化的影响, 对调整水稻种植布局、提高水稻生产适应气候变化能力具有重要意义。本文通过对比时间跨度为1981-2030 年水稻生产可用水量和季节性干旱的时空分布和干旱程度, 得出气候变化对未来我国水稻主产区季节性干旱有显著影响。主要结论有:2001-2030 年(对照期) 与1980-2000 年(基准期) 对比, (1) 早稻和晚稻生长季可用水量均值增加了10%以上, 中稻生长季可用水量保持不变。同时, 中稻和晚稻的生长季可用水量的空间分布更加均匀, 表明由于气候变化的影响, 水稻主产区水稻生长季可用水量从整体上会更加充沛、空间分布会更加均匀, 有利于缓解季节性干旱的发生。(2)水稻的季节性干旱均呈下降趋势, 早稻季节性干旱减少1.25 万km², 中稻季节性干旱减少8.00万km², 特别是晚稻季节性干旱减少25 万km², 几乎占晚稻种植面积的20%。表明由于气候变化的影响, 水稻主产区水稻季节性干旱总体趋于缓解, 特别是晚稻季节性干旱问题有明显改善。(3) 通过建立水文循环过程中可用水量与作物生长季需水量之间的关系, 构建的基于分布式水文模型的水分供需指数(WSDI) 适用于评估未来气候对水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响。

关键词: 气候变化, 水稻, 季节性干旱, 影响, 水分供需指数, VIC模型

Abstract: Impact of climate change on seasonal drought in main rice cropping regions in China is important for adjusting rice planting pattern and improving adaptation ability. By comparing the level and spatial and temporal distribution of available water and seasonal drought during 1981-2030, this paper assesses impact of climate change on seasonal drought in main rice cropping regions in the south of China. The results are shown as follows. (1) The mean available water of early rice and late rice will increase by more than 10% in the growing season, while mean available water of medium rice will keep invariant. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of available water of early rice and later rice becomes more homogeneous. This means that, due to climate change, available water of main rice cropping regions generally in the growing season will be more abundant, and spatial distribution of available water is more homogeneous, which is conductive to mitigate seasonal drought. (2) The area of seasonal drought of early rice will reduce by 12,500 km², medium rice by 80,000 km², and especially later rice will decrease by 250,000 km², accounting for 20% of the planting area of later rice. This means that, under climate change, the seasonal drought on the whole will tend to weaken, especially seasonal drought of later rice will obviously be weakened. (3) Based on the relationship between available water from hydrologic circulation process and water demands for crop growing season, the Water Supplies and Demands Index (WSDI) is suitable for assessing the impact of climate change on seasonal drought in main rice cropping regions.

Key words: climate change, rice, seasonal drought, WSDI, VIC model

马欣, 吴绍洪, 李玉娥, 张雪艳, 高清竹, 伍洋. 未来气候变化对我国南方水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响评估[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11): 1451-1460.

MA Xin, WU Shaohong, LI Yu'e, ZHANG Xueyan, GAO Qingzhu, WU Yang. Assessing Climate Change Impact on Seasonal Drought in Main Rice Cropping Regions in the South of China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(11): 1451-1460.

参考文献

[1] Committee of China's National Assessment Report on Climate Change. China's National Assessment Report on ClimateChange. Beijing: Science Press, 2007: 130-265. [气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会. 气候变化国家评估报告. 北京:科学出版社, 2007: 130-265.]

[2] Huang Wanhua, Yang Xiaoguang, Li Maosong et al. Evolution characteristics of seasonal drought in the south of Chinaduring the past 58 years based on standardized precipitation index. Transactions of the CSAE, 2010, 26(7): 50-59. [黄晚华, 杨晓光, 李茂松等. 基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58 年演变特征. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(7):50-59.]

[3] Wang Longchang, Xie Xoaoyu, Zhang Zhen et al. On establishment of a water-saving farming system in seasonaldrought regions of Southwest China. Journal of Southwest University, 2010, 32(2): 1-6. [王龙昌, 谢小玉, 张臻等. 论西南季节性干旱区节水型农作制度的构建. 西南大学学报, 2010, 32(2): 1-6.]

[4] Liu Hongshun, Wang Jixin. Study on seasonal drought and protection in southern Hunan Province. Chinese Journal ofAgrometeorology, 1993, 14(1): 26-30. [刘洪顺, 王继新. 湘南红壤试验区季节性干旱及防御的研究. 中国农业气象,1993, 14(1): 26-30.]

[5] Zhang Bin, Zhang Taolin. Relationship between water potentials of red soil and crop leaves under five farming systemsand their responses to drought stress in dry season. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 1995, 15(4): 413-419. [张斌, 张桃林. 南方东部丘陵区季节性干旱成因及其对策研究. 生态学报, 1995, 15(4): 413-419.]

[6] Huang Daoyou, Wang Kelin, Huang Min et al. Seasonal drought problems in the red soil hilly region of middlesubtropical zone of China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2004, 24(11): 2516-2523. [黄道友, 王克林, 黄敏等. 我国中亚热带典型红壤丘陵区季节性干旱. 生态学报, 2004, 24(11): 2516-2523.]

[7] Wang Mingzhu. Study on seasonal drought in Southern China. Rural Eco-Environment, 1997, 13(2): 6-10. [王明珠. 我国南方季节性干旱研究. 农村生态环境, 1997, 13(2): 6-10.]

[8] Huang Wanhua, Yang Xiaoguang, Qu Huihui et al. Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristic on seasonal drought ofspring maize based on crop water deficit index. Transactions of the CSAE, 2009, 25(8): 28-34. [黄晚华, 杨晓光, 曲辉辉等. 基于作物水分亏缺指数的春玉米季节性干旱时空特征分析. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(8): 28-34.]

[9] Qu Huihui, Yang Xiaoguang, Zhang Xiaoyu et al. Optimized cropping systems to prevent and avoid the droughtdisaster based on the adaptation between precipitation and crop water requirement in Hunan Province. Acta EcologicaSinica, 2010, 30(16): 4257-4265. [曲辉辉, 杨晓光, 张晓煜等. 基于作物需水与自然降水适配度的湖南省防旱避灾种植制度优化. 生态学报, 2010, 30(16): 4257-4265.]

[10] Mei Fangquan, Wu Xianzhang, Yao Changxi et al. Rice cropping regionalization in China, Chinese Journal of RiceScience, 1988, 2(3): 97-110. [梅方权, 吴宪章, 姚长溪等. 中国水稻种植区划中国. 水稻科学, 1988, 2(3): 97-110.]

[11] Yao Fengmei, Zhang Jiahua, Sun Baini et al. Simulation and analysis on climate change impact of yield of rice insouthern China. Climate and Environmental Research, 2007, 12(5): 659-666. [姚凤梅, 张佳华, 孙白妮等. 气候变化对中国南方稻区水稻产量影响的模拟和分析. 气候与环境研究, 2007, 12(5): 659-666.]

[12] China National Rice Research Institute. China's Rice Planting Zoning. Hangzhou: Zhejiang Science and TechnologyPress, 1989: 5-17. [中国水稻研究所. 中国水稻种植区划. 杭州: 浙江科学技术出版社, 1989: 5-17.]

[13] Xu Yinlong, Jones R. Using ECMWF data verify PRECIS simulation ability on regional climate of China. Journal ofAgricultural Meteorology, 2004, 25(1): 5-9. [许吟隆, Jones R. 利用ECMWF 再分析数据验证PRECIS 对中国区域气候的模拟能力. 中国农业气象, 2004, 25(1): 5-9.]

[14] Xu Yinlong. Development high-resolution regional climate scenarios of China based on Hadley center RCM. ClimateChange Bulletin, 2004, 3(5): 6-7. [许吟隆. 基于Hadley 中心RCM 发展中国高分变率区域气候情景. 气候变化通讯,2004, 3(5): 6-7.]

[15] Xu Yinlong. Climate change scenarios simulation of China during 21 century. Journal of Nanjing Meteology, 2005, 28(3): 323-329. [许吟隆.中国21 世纪气候变化的情景模拟分析. 南京气象学院学报, 2005, 28(3): 323-329.]

[16] Hu Caihong, Guo Shenglian, Peng Dingzhi et al. VIC model into runoff simulation. Yellow River, 2005, (10):22-28. [胡彩虹, 郭生练, 彭定志等. VIC模型在流域径流模拟中的应用. 人民黄河, 2005, (10): 22-28.]

[17] Xie Zhenghui, Liu Qian, Yuan Fei. Frames of large scale land surface hydrological model based on 50 km×50 kmgrids. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2004, (5): 76-82. [谢正辉, 刘谦, 袁飞. 基于全国50 km×50 km网格的大尺度陆面水文模型框架. 水利学报, 2004, (5): 76-82.]

[18] Chen Yumin, Guo Guoshuang. Study on Contour Lines on Water Demands of Main Crops in China. Beijing: Chinese Agricultural Science Press, 1993: 1-18. [陈玉民, 郭国双. 我国主要农作物需水量等值线研究. 北京: 中国农业科学出版社, 1993: 1-18.]

[19] Xu Liang, Dennis P Lettenmaier, Eric F Wood. A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energyfluxes for general circulation models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1994, 14: 415-428.

[20] Xu Liang, Eric F Wood, Dennis P Lettenmaier. Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model:Evaluation and modification. Global and Planetary Change, 1996, 13: 195-206.

[21] Xu Liang, Guo Jianzhong, L Ruby Leung. Assessment of the effects of spatial resolutions on daily water fluxsimulations. Journal of Hydrology, 2004, 298: 287-310.

[22] Bart Nijssen, Dennis P Lettenmaier, Xu Liang et al. Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins. WaterResources Research, 1997, 4: 711-724.

[23] Xiong W, Holman L, Lin E D et al. Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China.Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2010, 135(1): 58-69.

[24] Ma Xin, Wu Shaohong, Dai Erfu et al. Impact of Climate change on water resources in main paddy rice croppingregions in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(6): 1052-1063. [马欣, 吴绍洪, 戴尔阜等. 气候变化对我国水稻主产区水资源的影响. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(6): 1052-1063.]

[25] Lu Houquan, Zhang Yushu, Wang Jianlin et al. GB/T-2009, Classification of Agricultural Drought Category(Examination Vision). [吕厚荃, 张玉书, 王建林等. GB/T-2009, 农业干旱等级(审定稿).]

[26] Li Guozhang. Study on rice water demands and water demands index in southern China. Hydropower in Guangxi,1991, (3): 55-60. [李国章. 我国南方水稻需水量与需水系数的研究. 广西水利水电, 1991, (3): 55-60.]

[27] Zhang Minrui. Analysis and calculation on rice water demands in Chongqing region. Hydropower in Sichuan, 1990, 11(3): 31-34. [张敏瑞. 重庆地区水稻需水量分析与计算. 四川水利, 1990, 11(3): 31-34.]

[28] Yu Jianhe, Yu Wanyou, Wang Fang. Analysis on test result of rice water demand in Xuzhou region. Anhui AgriculturalScience, 2008, 36(25): 10810-10811, 10819. [俞建河, 俞万有, 王芳. 滁州地区水稻需水量试验成果分析. 安徽农业科学, 2008, 36(25): 10810-10811, 10819.]

[29] Wu Ruipu, Wu Tian'en. Analysis on test result of rice water demand in Quanzhou region. Journal of Irrigation andDrainage, 1990, 9(4): 18-23. [吴瑞普, 吴天恩.泉州地区水稻需水试验成果分析. 灌溉排水, 1990, 9(4): 18-23.]

[30] Zhuan Keqin. Study on rice water demand projection in Hefei region. Anhui Agricultural Science, 1994, 22(1):21-22. [转可钦. 合肥地区水稻需水量预报方法的研究. 安徽农业科学, 1994, 22(1): 21-22.]

[31] Wang Chaoyong. Study on contour line of rice water demand in Sichuan Province. Hydropower in Sichuan, 1991, 12(2): 5-7. [王朝勇. 四川省水稻需水量等值线图研究成果. 四川水利, 1991, 12(2): 5-7.]

[32] Xiong Wei, Conway Declan, Lin Erda et al. Future cereal production in China: The interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 2009, 19: 34-44.

[33] Liu Luliu, Jiang Tong, Xu Jinge et al. Responses of hydrological processes to the climate change in the Zhujiang riverbasin in the 21st century. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2012, 8(1): 28-34. [刘绿柳, 姜彤, 徐金阁等. 21 世纪珠江流域水文过程对气候变化的响应. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(1): 28-34.]

未来气候变化对我国南方水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响评估

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Seasonal Drought in Main Rice Cropping Regions in the South of China

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	孙宏日, 刘艳军, 周国磊. 东北地区交通优势度演变格局及影响机制[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 444-458.
[2]	李文龙, 匡文慧, 吕君, 赵中华. 北方农牧交错区人地系统演化特征与影响机理——以内蒙古达茂旗为例[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 487-502.
[3]	陈娜, 任安之, 马伯, 黎璟玉, 向辉. 湖南省凤凰县城雨洪管控路径[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 153-166.
[4]	姚俊强, 毛炜峄, 陈静, 迪丽努尔·托列吾别克. 新疆气候“湿干转折”的信号和影响探讨[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 57-72.
[5]	李哲, 丁永建, 陈艾姣, 张智华, 张世强. 1960—2019年西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[6]	敖荣军, 常亮. 基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
[7]	曹智, 刘彦随, 李裕瑞, 王永生. 中国专业村镇空间格局及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1647-1666.
[8]	孙九霞, 许泳霞, 王学基. 旅游背景下传统仪式空间生产的三元互动实践[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(8): 1742-1756.
[9]	左其亭, 崔国韬. 人类活动对河湖水系连通的影响评估[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1483-1493.
[10]	魏素豪, 李晶, 李泽怡, 宗刚. 中国农业竞争力时空格局演化及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(6): 1287-1300.
[11]	金凯, 王飞, 韩剑桥, 史尚渝, 丁文斌. 1982—2015年中国气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 961-974.
[12]	李双双, 汪成博, 延军平, 刘宪锋. 面向事件过程的秦岭南北极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 989-1007.
[13]	刘敏, 郝炜. 山西省国家A级旅游景区空间分布影响因素研究[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(4): 878-888.
[14]	古恒宇, 孟鑫, 沈体雁, 崔娜娜. 中国城市流动人口居留意愿影响因素的空间分异特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(2): 240-254.
[15]	段德忠, 杜德斌. 全球高科技产品贸易结构演化及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(12): 2759-2776.