地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (3): 361-368.doi: 10.11821/xb201003011

• 地貌与第四纪 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京市甲型H1N1早期流行的特征与时空演变模式

曹志冬1, 曾大军1, 王全意2, 王小莉2, 张奕2, 邓瑛2, 郑晓龙1, 王飞跃1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院自动化研究所复杂系统与智能科学重点实验室,北京100190;
    2. 北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京100013
  • 收稿日期:2009-09-16 修回日期:2009-12-05 出版日期:2010-03-30 发布日期:2010-07-24
  • 通讯作者: 曾大军, E-mail: zengdaniel@gmail.com
  • 作者简介:曹志冬, 博士, E-mail:caozd@lreis.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    美国自然科学基金(IIS-0839990; IIS-0428241); 美国国土安全部项目(2008-ST-061-BS0002); 卫生部项目 (2009ZX10004-315); 中国科学院项目(2F07C01; 2F08N03); 博士后面上项目(20080440559); MOST 项目 (2006AA010106); 国家自然科学基金(40901219; 60621001); 北京市科委09 年科研院所重点任务专项共同资助

Epidemiological Features and Spatio-temporal Evolution in the Early Phase of the Beijing H1N1 Epidemic

CAO Zhi-dong1, ZENG Da-jun1, WANG Quan-yi2, WANG Xiao-li2, ZHANG Yi2, DENG Ying2, ZHENG Xiao-long1, WANG Fei-yue1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Intelligence Science, Institute of Automation, CAS, Beijing 100190, China;
    2. Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China
  • Received:2009-09-16 Revised:2009-12-05 Online:2010-03-30 Published:2010-07-24
  • Supported by:

    US NSF, No.IIS-0839990; No.IIS-0428241; US DHS, No.2008-ST-061-BS0002; The Ministry of Health, No.2009ZX10004-315; Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.2F07C01; No.2F08N03; China Postdoctoral Science Fund, No.20080440559; MOST, No.2006AA010106; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.60621001; No.40901219

摘要:

甲型H1N1 正在全球快速传播,中国因人口众多而成为受甲型H1N1 潜在威胁最严重的地区之一。基于流行病学调查得到的8 月15 日以前的北京市甲型H1N1 病例数据,论文分析了甲型H1N1 的流行病学特征,并探讨了94 起聚集爆发事件的时空演变模式。论文还对比了北京市的甲型H1N1 与2003 年SARS的空间传播网络,结果表明,两次流行事件的空间传播模式具有类似模式,朝阳区—海淀区—城市中心区(东城、西城、崇文、宣武) 是影响北京市疫情发展的关键。在资源有限情况下,重点关注这个三角地带的人群防控对缓减北京市甲型H1N1 疫情会产生更积极的作用。北京市甲型H1N1 的早期防控是有效和及时的。

关键词: 北京, 甲型H1N1, 流行病学分析, 时空演变模式, 空间传播网络

Abstract:

Influenza A H1N1 has spread around the world with a horrifying speed. China has the largest population in the world, which makes China more vulnerable to Influenza A H1N1. Using the epidemiological survey data concerning 744 H1N1-infected patients in Beijing during May 13, 2009 to August 15, 2009, this paper presents the epidemiological features. Based on 94 H1N1 cluster outbreak events, we studied the pattern of spatio-temporal evolution during the early phase of Beijing 2009 H1N1 epidemic. We also compared the spatial transmission network of the early Beijing H1N1 epidemic with that of the Beijing 2003 SARS epidemic. The results indicate that both networks are consistent from the point of view of structure. The triangle zones of the city central districts (including Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chongwen and Xuanwu) - Chaoyang District - Haidian District are the key places to control H1N1 epidemic. With the limit of emergency resources, efforts should be made on public health to prevent these zones from the spread of H1N1 Influenza A H1N1 infection. The emergency control measures implemented in Beijing are effective and timely.

Key words: Beijing city, Influenza A H1N1, epidemiological analysis, spatio-temporal evolution, spatial transmission network