地理学报 ›› 2000, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (4): 385-394.doi: 10.11821/xb200004001

• 论文 •    下一篇

未来海岸环境变化的易损范围及评估——江苏滨海平原个例研究

杨桂山, 施雅风, 张琛, 梁海棠   

  1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008
  • 收稿日期:2000-04-20 修回日期:2000-05-15 出版日期:2000-07-15 发布日期:2000-07-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(49871076);中国科学院“九五”重点项目(KZ952-J1-010)

Assessment of Vulnerable Scope to Environmental Change in Jiangsu Coastal Plain

YANG Gui shan, SHI Ya feng, ZHANG Chen, LIANG Hai tang   

  1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
  • Received:2000-04-20 Revised:2000-05-15 Online:2000-07-15 Published:2000-07-15
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.49871076;key ninth-five-year-plan project of Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.KZ952-J1-010

摘要: 以海面上升与灾害加剧为标志的海岸环境变化将是21世纪海岸地区社会经济发展面临的最严峻挑战。评估未来海岸环境变化的易损性是联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)敦促沿海各国政府在评估气候变化及其影响时必须优先开展的工作之一。针对已有评估研究存在的问题,发展了适用于面积广阔、微地貌条件复杂且有海堤保护的大河三角洲和滨海平原海岸环境变化易损范围确定和易损性评估的方法。并基于江苏滨海平原典型潮滩剖面野外观测和采样实验室分析划定的易损范围,结合遥感与GIS方法对江苏滨海平原海岸环境变化的易损性进行了综合评估。

关键词: 易损性评估, 易损范围, 海岸环境变化, 江苏滨海平原, 海平面上升

Abstract: This paper develops the method of delimiting vulnerable scope and assessing coastal vulnerability through the observation and sampling in the field and applying the means of remote sensing and GIS, which can be suitable for great river delta and coastal plains with great area, relative complex micro geomorphology and the protection of seawall. The vulnerable scope should include inundated tidal flats due to sea level rise, coastal lowlands of soil salinization caused by rising phreatic water level and the area directly harmed by exacerbating storm surges due to sea level rise. The Jiangsu Coastal Plain is low flat, where considerable part of habitable lands are below local mean high tidal level (3 m above sea level) and depend on the protection of low standard seawall. So this area is the most vulnerable to sea level rise and exacerbating coastal hazards. Applying above mentioned method, the coastal vulnerability of Jiangsu Coastal Plain to relative sea level rise (approximately 50 cm up to 2050 yr) and exacerbating storm surge has been assessed. The results show that, up to the 2050 yr, the Jiangsu Coastal Plain will probably loss 12 8% of tidal flats (about 6.7?104hm2) and 7 7% of cultivated land (about 8 2 104 hm2). Meanwhile, 2 0% of population, 5 9% of original value of fixed capital, 4 1% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), 53 3% of salt industry and 6 8% of aquiculture respectively will be affected, due to coastal environmental change. The coastal vulnerability degree(CVD) of the whole area belongs to medium grade (the index between 0 and 1 is 0 56). In view of different coast sections, CVD of the northern area of Guanhe River Mouth and Abandoned Huanghe River Delta belong to high grade (the indexes reach 0 81 and 0 63 respectively), these of the northern part of Middle Coastal Plain and the northern part of the Changjiang River Delta belong to medium grade too (the indexes are 0 45 and 0 46 respectively). that of the southern of Middle Coastal Plain belongs to the lowest grade (the index is 0 31).

Key words: coastal vulnerability assessment, vulnerable scope, coastal environmental change, Jiangsu Coastal Plain, sea level rise

中图分类号: 

  • X821