全球能源结构性权力时空格局演变及其关键驱动因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202309013

地理学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 78 ›› Issue (9): 2316-2337.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202309013

全球能源结构性权力时空格局演变及其关键驱动因素

张强¹^,²^,³(), 杜德斌¹^,²^,³(), 郭卫东¹^,²^,³, 颜子明¹^,²^,³, 曹宛鹏¹^,²^,³, 夏启繁¹^,²^,³

1.华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心，上海 200062
2.华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院，上海 200062
3.华东师范大学地理科学学院，上海 200241

收稿日期:2022-12-12 修回日期:2023-06-30 出版日期:2023-09-25 发布日期:2023-09-28
通讯作者: 杜德斌(1963-), 男, 湖北宜昌人, 教授, 博士生导师, 研究方向为世界政治经济地理与科技创新政策。E-mail: dbdu@re.ecnu.edu.cn
作者简介:张强(1996-), 男, 四川泸州人, 博士生, 研究方向为世界地理与地缘政治。E-mail: up_zhangq@163.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA087)

Spatio-temporal evolution and key drivers of global energy structural power

ZHANG Qiang¹^,²^,³(), DU Debin¹^,²^,³(), GUO Weidong¹^,²^,³, YAN Ziming¹^,²^,³, CAO Wanpeng¹^,²^,³, XIA Qifan¹^,²^,³

1. Center for World Geography and Geostrategy, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
2. Institute of Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
3. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China

Received:2022-12-12 Revised:2023-06-30 Published:2023-09-25 Online:2023-09-28
Supported by:
Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China(19ZDA087)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

能源作为战略性资源在国家地缘战略中尤为重要，能源结构性权力的角逐业已成为国家间综合国力竞争和能源安全保障的重要内涵。利用联合国跨国投入产出数据对2001—2017年各国的能源结构性权力进行测度，从空间格局、网络组织关系、新增价值分配的视阈来揭示全球能源结构性权力的演化脉络，并识别出权力转移的关键驱动因素。研究表明：① 全球能源结构性权力体系呈现出两极分化严重、动荡不稳定特征，能源强国对周边地区不断挤压并产生了大量的破碎地带；② 全球能源结构性权力呈现出“东升西降”趋势，并以中美德为主导的“三足鼎立”空间格局。其中能源出口结构性权力不断向中国转移，进口权力则进一步锚固在西欧北美；③ 全球能源结构性权力合作社团扩散和收缩并存，亚太和东欧社团范围逐渐扩大，西欧和美国社团范围则有所缩减；④ 全球能源结构性权力“核心—边缘”等级结构存在“双核→三核→多核”的弱化趋势，权力等级圈层间的迭代过程显著；⑤ 从能源价值流动的核心链条来看，德国、美国为代表的能源结构性权力强国占据链主地位并主导着能源价值的分配，作为跟随和从属的能源小国陷于低端锁定困局。从能源产业链环节的来看，呈现出能源勘探开采和加工销售环节价值较高，运输储存环节价值较低的“微笑曲线”特征；⑥ 国家高水平能源结构性权力的关键驱动因素从早期的能源禀赋和能源贸易维度逐步向市场资本维度所延展。据此为中国能源结构性权力的巩固提出了政策建议。

关键词: 地缘经济, 能源结构性权力, 全球能源格局, 网络组织关系, 价值分配

Abstract:

As a strategic resource, energy has become essential to national geopolitical strategies competition over energy structural power between states, and has implications for both their state power and energy security. Using the cross-country input-output data collected from the United Nations, we measure the structural power of energy in each country from 2001 through 2017. We evaluate the evolution of global structural power in energy through spatial structure, network, and the distribution of value added and identify the key drivers of its shift. The study shows that (1) The global energy structural power system was increasingly polarized and volatile and conflicts among energy superpowers gave rise to a big number of shatter belts. (2) We saw the rise of the East and the decline of the West in the trend of the global structural energy power, and China, the United States, and Germany are its major leading forces. Specifically, energy exporting power increasingly shifted to China, whereas energy importing power was further centered in West Europe and North America. (3) The associations of global structural engergy power saw both shrinkage and diffusion: they expanded their coverage in the Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe whereas decreased their coverage in Western Europe and the United States. (4) The hierarchical order of global energy structural power gradually shifed from dual cores, triple cores, to mutiple cores, and the relationship between different hierarchical orders changed drastically. (5) As for the core chain of energy value flow, energy structural superpowers represented by Germany and the United States led the chain and dominated the distribution of energy value, while small nations in energy production serve as followers and subordinates were stuck in low-end industries. The sections of the energy industrial chain exhibited a U-shaped curve in which energy exploration, mining, processing perform relatively high values, whereas transportation and storage produce relatively low values. (6) The key drivers of national energy structural power gradually shifted from early energy endowment and energy trades to market capitals. We propose corresponding policy advice that fosters the consolidation of China's structural energy power.

Key words: geoeconomy, energy structural power, global energy landscape, network organizational relationships, value distribution

张强, 杜德斌, 郭卫东, 颜子明, 曹宛鹏, 夏启繁. 全球能源结构性权力时空格局演变及其关键驱动因素[J]. 地理学报, 2023, 78(9): 2316-2337.

ZHANG Qiang, DU Debin, GUO Weidong, YAN Ziming, CAO Wanpeng, XIA Qifan. Spatio-temporal evolution and key drivers of global energy structural power[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(9): 2316-2337.

图/表 13

表1

表2

进出口新增价值

输出国	输入国
输出国	国家1	国家2	…	国家j
国家1	$T V 11$	$T V 12$	…	$T V 1 j$
国家2	$T V 21$	$T V 22$	…	$T V 2 j$
…	…	…	…	…
国家i	$T V i 1$	$T V i 2$	…	$T V i j$

表2

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

表3

图9

表4

国家高水平能源结构性权力驱动路径

年份	驱动路径	覆盖度	一致性	国家
2000	R1：能源出口^能源进口^~企业并购^*外国投资	0.491	0.930	日本、韩国、菲律宾、马来西亚、澳大利亚、墨西哥、加拿大、法国、捷克、奥地利、比利时、丹麦、芬兰、瑞士、西班牙、挪威、巴西、阿根廷
	R2：能源出口^能源进口^能源生产^*外国投资	0.334	0.999	中国、马来西亚、澳大利亚、美国、加拿大、委内瑞拉、阿根廷、巴西、德国、英国、荷兰、伊朗、挪威、土耳其、捷克、波兰、南非、尼日利亚、印度
	R3：能源出口^能源进口^能源生产^专利规模^外国投资	0.294	1.000	中国、日本、韩国、美国、德国、芬兰、挪威、奥地利、法国、荷兰、意大利、瑞士、瑞典、加拿大、比利时、丹麦、西班牙、澳大利亚
	R4：能源出口^能源进口^能源生产^~企业规模^~专利规模	0.216	0.998	阿联酋、伊朗、土耳其、哈萨克斯坦、委内瑞拉、波兰、捷克、乌克兰、尼日利亚、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、越南
	R5：能源生产^能源出口^~企业规模^~专利规模^外国投资	0.276	0.930	土库曼斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、叙利亚、伊拉克、伊朗、阿曼、卡塔尔、利比亚、埃及、阿尔及利亚、委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚、土耳其、波兰、捷克、墨西哥
	R6：能源出口^能源进口^~能源生产^~企业规模^~企业并购^*专利规模	0.128	1.000	比利时、爱尔兰、丹麦、芬兰、日本、韩国、新西兰
2010	R1：能源出口^能源进口^~企业规模^~企业并购^~专利规模	0.321	0.906	爱沙尼亚、白俄罗斯、立陶宛、乌克兰、保加利亚、希腊、斯洛伐克、安哥拉、捷克、阿联酋、叙利亚、伊朗、突尼斯、尼日利亚、科特迪瓦、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、秘鲁、巴哈马
	R2：~能源生产^能源出口能源进口^~企业并购^~专利规模	0.207	0.999	日本、韩国、以色列、法国、意大利、丹麦、匈牙利、西班牙、奥地利、瑞士、爱尔兰、瑞典、芬兰、比利时
	R3：能源生产^能源出口^能源进口^外国投资^~企业并购	0.265	0.978	美国、加拿大、墨西哥、哥伦比亚、巴西、阿根廷、阿联酋、伊朗、巴基斯坦、利比亚、英国、挪威、捷克、土耳其、澳大利亚
	R4：~能源生产^能源进口^外国投资^~企业规模^~企业并购^*~专利规模	0.211	0.828	白俄罗斯、斯洛文尼亚、立陶宛、保加利亚、爱沙尼亚、秘鲁、乌拉圭、巴拿马、多米尼加、孟加拉国、坦桑尼亚、黎巴嫩
	R5：能源生产^能源出口^能源进口^外国投资^企业规模^*专利规模	0.158	0.999	中国、马来西亚、印度、美国、加拿大、巴西、澳大利亚、挪威、荷兰、土耳其
2017	R1：能源生产^能源出口^~企业规模^~企业并购^~专利规模	0.238	0.878	委内瑞拉、埃及、利比亚、保加利亚、伊朗、阿联酋、蒙古、乌兹别克斯坦、安哥拉、土库曼斯坦、厄瓜多尔、阿曼
	R2：能源出口^能源进口^~企业规模^~企业并购^~专利规模	0.297	0.896	立陶宛、保加利亚、爱沙尼亚、白俄罗斯、斯洛伐克、厄瓜多尔、委内瑞拉、巴拿马、秘鲁、埃及、利比亚、阿联酋、阿曼、巴林
	R3：能源生产^能源出口^能源进口^~企业规模^~专利规模	0.204	0.978	埃及、委内瑞拉、乌克兰、利比亚、阿联酋、越南、伊拉克、保加利亚、阿曼、厄瓜多尔、阿尔及利亚、捷克
	R4：能源生产^能源出口^能源进口^~企业规模^~企业并购	0.219	0.979	南非、委内瑞拉、利比亚、英国、波兰、越南、保加利亚、埃及、阿曼、厄瓜多尔、阿联酋
	R5：能源生产^能源出口^能源进口^外国投资^~企业并购	0.290	0.974	阿联酋、加拿大、埃及、阿根廷、委内瑞拉、墨西哥、澳大利亚、哥伦比亚、哈萨克斯坦、希腊、巴西、英国、挪威、保加利亚、印度
	R6：能源出口^能源进口^外国投资^~企业并购^专利规模	0.241	1.000	法国、澳大利亚、瑞士、芬兰、韩国、西班牙、挪威、奥地利、丹麦、日本、印度、巴西、以色列、加拿大
	R7：能源生产^能源出口^能源进口^企业规模^企业并购^*专利规模	0.123	1.000	中国、沙特、俄罗斯、荷兰、美国

表4

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投入	产出
	中间使用			最终需求		总产出
	国家i	国家j		国家i	国家j
	国家i	国家j	国家i	国家i	国家j		x_ii	x_ij	y_ii	y_ij	X_i
国家j	x_ji	x_jj		y_ji	y_jj	X_j
新增价值	V_i	V_i
总投入	X_i	X_j

一级变量	二级变量(简称)	指标释义
能源禀赋	能源生产(PRO)	传统能源生产量以及新能源发电量之和
能源贸易	能源出口(EXP)	传统能源以及新型能源装机所需稀有材料的出口额之和
能源贸易	能源进口(IMP)	传统能源以及新型能源装机所需稀有材料的进口额之和
市场资本	对外投资(OFDI)	对外投资的净额
	外国投资(FDI)	外国投资者的净流入总额
	企业并购(ESA)	能源企业跨境并购交易总额
	企业规模(EES)	能源企业资产总额
能源技术	专利规模(PCT)	国际能源技术专利总数
能源技术	利用效率(NUE)	单位GDP能耗
地缘环境	国家稳定(NS)	采用政治稳定和无暴力指数衡量国家稳定性
地缘环境	地缘关系(GPR)	构建地缘亲和度来衡量国家间的地缘关系

全球能源结构性权力时空格局演变及其关键驱动因素

Spatio-temporal evolution and key drivers of global energy structural power

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