地理学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 78 ›› Issue (9): 2271-2283.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202309010

• 全球变化影响及响应 • 上一篇    下一篇

干旱区暴雨山洪淹没数值模拟与验证

高丹1,2(), 殷杰1,2(), 王丹丹3, 杨宇涵2, 陆逸1,2, 陈睿山4   

  1. 1.华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241
    2.华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海 200241
    3.应急管理部国家减灾中心,北京100124
    4.上海交通大学设计学院,上海 200240
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-13 修回日期:2023-07-07 出版日期:2023-09-25 发布日期:2023-09-28
  • 通讯作者: 殷杰(1983-), 男, 江苏泰州人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110006221M), 主要从事城市自然地理与灾害风险管理研究。E-mail: jyin@geo.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:高丹(1999-), 女, 重庆永川人, 硕士生, 主要从事洪涝灾害数值模拟与风险分析研究。E-mail: 51213901021@stu.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41871164)

Modeling and validation of flash flood inundation in drylands

GAO Dan1,2(), YIN Jie1,2(), WANG Dandan3, YANG Yuhan2, LU Yi1,2, CHEN Ruishan4   

  1. 1. School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Geo-information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    3. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Emergency Management of People's Republic of China, Beijing 100124, China
    4. School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
  • Received:2023-03-13 Revised:2023-07-07 Published:2023-09-25 Online:2023-09-28
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871164)

摘要:

在气候变化和人类活动影响下,中国干旱山区洪涝灾害日益频发,人民群众的生命财产安全受到严重威胁。快速、准确的山洪淹没模拟是减少人员伤亡和降低灾害损失的重要基础性工作,也是山洪预报预警中亟待解决的瓶颈问题。本文旨在构建干旱区小流域的暴雨山洪数值模拟方法,基于2D高精度洪涝数值模型FloodMap-HydroInundation2D,以青海省大通县“8·18”暴雨山洪灾害为例,重现山洪灾害动态过程,揭示山洪淹没时空变化特征。模拟和验证结果表明:该模型能较好的模拟整个动态淹没过程,山洪淹没主要发生在8月18日0—1时,青山村、贺家庄和龙卧村淹没最严重,模拟的最大淹没范围与实际淹没水深范围较为一致;进一步探究模型对糙率和水力传导率的敏感性发现,由于干旱山区降水少且下垫面条件复杂,模型对糙率和水力传导率,特别是对水力传导率尤为敏感。本文证实了FloodMap-HydroInundation2D模型对于干旱区小流域暴雨山洪模拟的可靠性和普适性,为干旱区山洪灾害评估与防治提供了重要的方法支撑和决策依据。

关键词: 暴雨山洪, 数值模拟, 干旱区, 大通县, FloodMap-HydroInundation2D

Abstract:

In the context of climate change and human activities, flood disasters in arid mountainous areas become increasingly frequent, and the safety of people's lives and property has been seriously threatened. Rapid and accurate flash flood inundation modeling is an important and basic work to reduce casualties and disaster losses, and it is also a bottleneck problem that needs to be solved urgently in flash flood forecasting and warning. This paper aims to construct a numerical modeling method for flash flood in drylands. Based on a 2D high-resolution flood numerical model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D), we hindcast the dynamic process of flash flooding and reveal the spatio-temporal characteristics of flash flood inundation for the "8.18" flash flood disaster that occurred in Datong county, Qinghai province. The results show that the model output agrees well with the observed inundation after the event, in terms of both spatial extent and temporal process. The extensive flooding mainly occurred between 00:00 and 1:00 on August 18, 2022. Qingshan, Hejiazhuang and Longwo villages are most heavily affected. We further conduct model sensitivity analysis and find that the model is highly sensitive to both roughness and hydraulic conductivity in drylands, and the effect of hydraulic conductivity is found to be more pronounced. This study confirms the good performance of the model for the simulation of flash flooding in arid areas, unlocking the potential for flash flood assessment and management in arid areas.

Key words: flash flood, numerical modeling, arid areas, Datong county, Flood Map-HydroInundation2D