基于百度慧眼的中国收缩城市分类研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202110010

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (10): 2477-2488.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202110010

基于百度慧眼的中国收缩城市分类研究

孟祥凤¹(), 马爽¹, 项雯怡², 阚长城², 吴康³, 龙瀛¹^,⁴^,⁵()

1.清华大学建筑学院,北京 100084
2.百度时代网络技术（北京）有限公司,北京 100085
3.首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院城市群系统演化与可持续发展的决策模拟北京市重点实验室,北京 100070
4.清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心,北京 100084
5.生态规划与绿色建筑教育部重点实验室,北京 100084

收稿日期:2020-08-05 修回日期:2021-07-25 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-12-25
通讯作者: 龙瀛(1980-), 男, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事城乡规划技术科学研究。E-mail: ylong@tsinghua.edu.cn
作者简介:孟祥凤(1991-), 女, 博士后, 主要从事中国收缩城市的精细化识别、空间表征与规划机制研究。E-mail: mengxf1991@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51778319);国家自然科学基金项目(42171216);北京市科技新星计划交叉学科合作课题(Z191100001119017)

Classification of shrinking cities in China using Baidu big data

MENG Xiangfeng¹(), MA Shuang¹, XIANG Wenyi², KAN Changcheng², WU Kang³, LONG Ying¹^,⁴^,⁵()

1. School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2. Baidu.com Times Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd., Beijing 100085, China
3. Beijing Key Laboratory of Megaregions Sustainable Development Modeling, School of Urban Economics and Public Affairs, Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070, China
4. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
5. Key Laboratory of Eco-Planning & Green Building, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100084, China;

Received:2020-08-05 Revised:2021-07-25 Published:2021-10-25 Online:2021-12-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(51778319);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171216);Beijing Nova Programme Interdisciplinary Cooperation Project(Z191100001119017)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

收缩城市是快速城市化过程中不可忽视的一类城市,按照城市人口变化格局,开展收缩城市分类研究,是发现城市人口“空洞”及变化特征的重要一环。国际上将收缩城市主要分为穿孔型、圈饼型和边缘型,中国的收缩城市究竟包括哪些类型?尚缺少研究证实。本文以中国实体城市为分析单位,利用百度慧眼2016年11月─2018年11月200 m格网的常住人口数据,发现常住人口减少的实体城市共1506座,占实体城市总量（3022座）的49.8%。选取人口较为密集且在研究时段内出现严重收缩现象的126座收缩城市为研究样本,探讨中国收缩城市分类问题。分析表明：126座收缩城市样本多分布在秦岭淮河一线以北地区,包括穿孔型、全局型、局部型、圈饼型、边缘型等5种类型。其中,穿孔型收缩城市最多,共47座（37.3%）,为中国收缩城市的主导类型,主要分布于黑龙江、内蒙古、甘肃;全局型收缩城市有33座（26.2%）,主要分布于甘肃、陕西;局部型收缩城市有25座（19.8%）,主要分布在黑龙江、内蒙古;圈饼型收缩城市有18座（14.3%）,主要分布在内蒙古;边缘型收缩城市有3座。“重速度、轻质量”的前半程城镇化,以“增长”为主导的城市规划执念,资源枯竭或经济转型导致传统工业企业衰落解体,政府主动调整下的产业转移等是产生穿孔型收缩城市的主因。研究为政府精细调整城市发展重心、优化土地利用结构、提高城市宜居性、开展收缩语境下的城市规划与设计,提供了科学依据。

关键词: 实体城市, 城市收缩, 人口变化格局, 百度慧眼, 常住人口, 中国

Abstract:

In the context of rapid urbanization, shrinking cities cannot be ignored. The classification of shrinking cities according to the patterns of urban population changes is the key to reveal the "hollow" and changing characteristics of the population. Researchers classified the shrinking cities in Western developed countries as "perforated", "doughnut" and "peripheral" types. However, there is a lack of evidence showing the types of shrinking cities in China. This paper takes the redefined physical cities in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) as the study area, and employs Baidu Huiyan's 200 m × 200 m grid cell permanent population data from November 2016 to November 2018 to identify different types of shrinking cities in the country. Our results show that 1506 physical cities have experienced a population reduction between 2016 and 2018, accounting for 49.8% of the total number of physical cities (3022). Furthermore, in order to accurately identify the types of shrinking cities, 126 densely populated and severely shrinking cities during the study period were selected as the research samples, mainly located to north of the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River of China. Our analysis shows that the shrinking types of the sample cities can be classified into five categories: "perforated", "complete", "local", "doughnut", and "peripheral". The number of cities with perforated shrinkage is the largest, which numbered 47 (37.3% of the sample cities), most of which are found in Heilongjiang Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Gansu Province. Complete shrinkage ranks the second, including 33 cities, which accounts for 26.2% of the samples, and mainly distributed in Gansu and Shaanxi provinces. The numbers of shrinking cities with local, doughnut and peripheral types are 25, 18 and 3, respectively. These cities are mainly distributed in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. This is because the governments paid more attention to the development speed over quality during the first half of China's urbanization process, and adopted a growth-oriented urban planning strategy. Traditional industries declined due to resource depletion or economic transformation, and the transfer of industries under active government adjustment, all of which contribute to the emergence of perforated shrinkage. This study could provide scientific evidence for micro management of urban development, optimization of land use pattern, improvement of urban livability, and conduct of urban planning and design in the context of urban shrinkage.

Key words: physical city, urban shrinkage, population change pattern, Baidu Huiyan, permanent resident, China

孟祥凤, 马爽, 项雯怡, 阚长城, 吴康, 龙瀛. 基于百度慧眼的中国收缩城市分类研究[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(10): 2477-2488.

MENG Xiangfeng, MA Shuang, XIANG Wenyi, KAN Changcheng, WU Kang, LONG Ying. Classification of shrinking cities in China using Baidu big data[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(10): 2477-2488.

图/表 7

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

基于人口变化格局的中国收缩城市分类统计

收缩城市类型(个数/占比%)		实体城市名单
	全局型 (33/26.2)	甘肃省(9)：合水县、环县、临潭县、庆城县、山丹县、夏河县、庄浪县、民勤县、永昌县;陕西省(6)：礼泉县、洛南县、旬邑县、延川县、宜川县、子长县;宁夏回族自治区(3)：彭阳县、同心县、西吉县;青海省(3)：德令哈市、湟源县、平安县;云南省(3)：鲁甸县、施甸县、镇雄县;黑龙江省(2)：抚远县2、逊克县;内蒙古自治区(2)：多伦县、土默特左旗;新疆维吾尔自治区(2)：霍城县、沙湾县
	局部型 (25/19.8)	黑龙江省(7)：北安市、海伦市、鸡西市城子河区1、穆棱市、饶河县、绥滨县、伊春市市辖区2;内蒙古自治区(5)：阿荣旗、陈巴尔虎旗、科尔沁左翼中旗副城1、托克托县、牙克石市;新疆维吾尔自治区(3)：博乐市、库尔勒市、昭苏县;吉林省(2)：敦化市、农安县;陕西省(2)：高陵县、永寿县
	圈饼型 (18/14.3)	内蒙古自治区(5)：包头市市辖区1、察哈尔右翼后旗、科尔沁左翼中旗主城、科尔沁左翼中旗副城2、兴和县;甘肃省(2)：静宁县主城、正宁县;江苏省(2)：灌南县、江都市
	穿孔型 (47/37.3)	黑龙江省(8)：巴彦县、大庆市市辖区2、桦川县、漠河县、饶河县主城、塔河县、依安县;甘肃省(3)：积石山保安族东乡族自治县、兰州市市辖区2、玉门市;内蒙古自治区(3)：根河市、呼和浩特市市辖区2、科尔沁右翼前旗;江苏省(3)：常熟市、连云港市市辖区1、苏州市相城区2;山东省(3)：日照市岚山区1、烟台市市辖区1、章丘市;浙江省(3)：宁波市市辖区2、绍兴县、玉环县;安徽省(2)：肥东县、宿州市市辖区2;广西壮族自治区(2)：崇左市市辖区2、南宁市市辖区1;河南省(2)：确山县、郑州市市辖区2;吉林省(2)：吉林市昌邑区、梅河口市;青海省(2)：都兰县、乌兰县;陕西省(2)：黄陵县、铜川市市辖区2;新疆维吾尔自治区(2)：若羌县、塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县
	边缘型 (3/2.4)	黑龙江省(1)：抚远县主城;海南省(1)：白沙黎族自治县;陕西省(1)：洛川县

表2

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	概念	分类标准
全局型	城市范围内绝大部分地区同时经历着人口流失	收缩城市内常住人口变化率< 0的网格数量占网格总量的70%以上,且常住人口变化率< 0的网格面积占收缩城市面积的50%以上
局部型	城市内部某一地区出现较小范围的人口流失	常住人口变化率< 0的网格集中分布在实体城市除中心位置外的某一区域
圈饼型	内城人口大量减少,而城市周边人口数量相对稳定	常住人口变化率< 0的网格集中在实体城市的中心区域
穿孔型	多个人口流失区域散布在城市内部	常住人口变化率< 0的网格零散分布在实体城市的多个区位
边缘型	内城人口增加,周边人口减少	常住人口变化率< 0的网格分布在城市增长区的外围

基于百度慧眼的中国收缩城市分类研究

Classification of shrinking cities in China using Baidu big data

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