地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (11): 2358-2370.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201911012
收稿日期:
2018-12-17
修回日期:
2019-08-10
出版日期:
2019-11-25
发布日期:
2019-11-01
作者简介:
杨家伟(1994-), 男, 河南周口人, 硕士生, 主要从事旱涝灾害研究。E-mail: yang_jiawei@whu.edu.cn
基金资助:
YANG Jiawei,CHEN Hua(),HOU Yukun,ZHAO Ying,CHEN Qihui,XU Chongyu,CHEN Jie
Received:
2018-12-17
Revised:
2019-08-10
Published:
2019-11-25
Online:
2019-11-01
Supported by:
摘要:
基于长江流域212个气象站点1961-2017年的日降水资料,借助标准化加权平均降水指数(SWAP),结合多门槛游程理论,提出一种识别旱涝急转事件的新方法。方法应用于旱涝急转事件高发的长江流域,分别从典型站点旱涝事件分析、区域典型旱涝急转事件分析、旱涝急转事件时空分布规律分析等角度,探讨了长江流域1961-2017年旱涝急转事件规律。结论显示:①SWAP指数对于旱涝事件具有良好的识别能力。②聚类方法可聚合相似旱涝急转事件,2011年长江中下游旱涝急转事件中干旱事件占主导地位,持续时间远长于洪涝事件。③ 长江流域旱涝急转事件呈现明显的区域规律:上游发生频率较低,中下游偏高;此外,长江流域多数分区近期旱涝急转事件发生频率呈现上升趋势。研究结果表明,基于SWAP指数并结合多门槛游程理论的方法能够比较准确地识别旱涝急转事件,可进一步应用于旱涝急转事件的预测及评估中。
杨家伟, 陈华, 侯雨坤, 赵英, 陈启会, 许崇育, 陈杰. 基于气象旱涝指数的旱涝急转事件识别方法[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(11): 2358-2370.
YANG Jiawei, CHEN Hua, HOU Yukun, ZHAO Ying, CHEN Qihui, XU Chongyu, CHEN Jie. A method to identify the drought-flood transition based on the meteorological drought index[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(11): 2358-2370.
表4
基于SWAP指数的武汉站干旱事件筛选
干旱起始 | 干旱结束 | 持续天数(d) | 历史记载 | 来源 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1961/7/12 | 1961/9/2 | 52 | 严重伏秋连旱 | 1、2 |
1966/3/22 | 1966/11/13 | 236 | 轻度春旱,严重伏秋连旱 | 1、2 |
1972/6/8 | 1972/9/12 | 96 | 严重伏秋连旱 | 1、2 |
1976/7/23 | 1976/10/22 | 91 | 严重伏秋连旱 | 1、2 |
1978/7/7 | 1978/10/26 | 111 | 特大伏秋连旱 | 1、2 |
1981/5/1 | 1981/6/27 | 57 | 严重春夏连旱 | 1 |
1992/8/11 | 1993/1/3 | 145 | 严重伏秋连旱 | 1 |
1994/5/2 | 1994/7/13 | 72 | 严重夏旱 | 1 |
2001/5/15 | 2001/11/29 | 198 | 严重春夏秋连旱 | 3 |
2010/11/29 | 2011/6/14 | 197 | 严重春夏连旱 | 4 |
表5
基于SWAP的武汉站暴雨洪涝事件筛选
日期 | 单日降水(mm) | 暴雨洪涝起始 | 暴雨洪涝结束 |
---|---|---|---|
1982/6/20 | 298.5 | 1982/6/20 | 1982/10/7 |
1998/7/21 | 285.7 | 1998/7/21 | 1998/9/5 |
1969/8/23 | 261.7 | 1969/7/7 | 1969/10/10 |
2016/7/6 | 241.5 | 2016/6/19 | 2016/9/2 |
1961/6/8 | 214.5 | 1961/6/8 | 1961/6/25 |
1991/7/9 | 209.8 | 1991/5/21 | 1991/8/22 |
1962/7/4 | 198.0 | 1962/7/4 | 1962/10/20 |
2011/6/18 | 197.9 | 2011/6/14 | 2011/7/13 |
1962/8/23 | 180.9 | 1962/7/4 | 1962/10/14 |
2016/6/19 | 180.0 | 2016/6/19 | 2016/9/2 |
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