横断山区泥石流空间格局和激发雨量分异性研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb201911008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

地形、降雨等环境因子决定了泥石流的时空分布特征,理解泥石流与这些因子的关系有助于区域泥石流灾害风险评估与防灾减灾工作。以横断山区为研究区域,选取降水、气候、地貌、地质、土地覆盖、土壤厚度、高差势能以及湿度指数等因子,利用地理探测器和灰度关联分析等方法,探讨了环境因子与泥石流沟空间分布的关系以及降水特征与泥石流灾害的时间关联性。结果表明,湿度指数是决定泥石流沟空间格局的最主要因子,其次是高差势能和土壤厚度,多年平均分布的降水特征对泥石流沟分布的影响较小。泥石流灾害事件与降水特征的时间关联具有较大的区域异质性。泥石流发生地的激发雨量、湿度指数、高差及土壤厚度的统计分布在不同地貌、地质和气候单元中有明显差异。这表明泥石流预警不仅需要考虑雨量等激发因子,还必须考虑其他影响因素的空间差异性。

关键词: 泥石流灾害, 环境因子, 降雨特征, 地理探测器, 灰色关联分析

Abstract:

Environmental factors determine the spatial and temporal distribution of debris flows. Understanding the relationship between debris flows and their effective factors is important for debris flows risk assessment at regional scale. In this paper, geographic detectors and gray correlation analysis are used to explore the relationship between 11 influencing factors, including precipitation, climate, landforms, geology, land cover type, soil thickness and topographic wetness, and the spatial distribution of debris flows-prone catchments, as well as the spatial and temporal correlation between precipitation and debris flows disasters in the Hengduan Mountains region. The results show that the topographic wetness index is the most dominant factor controlling the spatial distribution of the catchments, followed by topographic relief and soil thickness. Temporal correlation between debris flows disasters and precipitation characteristics has large regional heterogeneity. The rainfall characteristics of debris flows disaster events in different regions exhibit significant difference. The frequency of debris flows with rainfall, topographic wetness, topographic relief and soil thickness in the Hengduan Mountains region varies significantly in different zones, which indicates that not only the rainfall but also the other factors controlling the spatial pattern of debris flows should be reflected in debris flows early warning model in the region.

Key words: debris flows disaster, environmental factors, rainfall characteristics, geographical detectors, grey relational analysis

胡凯衡, 魏丽, 刘双, 李秀珍. 横断山区泥石流空间格局和激发雨量分异性研究[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(11): 2303-2313.

HU Kaiheng, WEI Li, LIU Shuang, LI Xiuzhen. Spatial pattern of debris-flow catchments and the rainfall amount of triggering debris flows in the Hengduan Mountains region[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(11): 2303-2313.

图/表 11

图1

表1

图2

表2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

参考文献 30

[1]	Zheng Du . Natural geographical differentiation and natural division of Hengduan Mountains area. Mountain Research, 1989,7(1):1-2.
	[ 郑度 . 横断山区自然地域分异和区划. 山地学报, 1989,7(1):1-2.]
[2]	Li Binyuan . Geomorphologic regionalization of the Hengduan Mountains region. Mountain Research, 1989,7(1):13-20.
	[ 李炳元 . 横断山区地貌区划. 山地研究, 1989,7(1):13-20.]
[3]	Lv Ruren, Li Deji . Active characteristics, formative conditions and control of debris flow in Hengduan Mountainous region. Mountain Research, 1986,4(1):37-44, 116.
	[ 吕儒仁, 李德基 . 横断山区泥石流活动特点形成条件及防治问题. 山地学报, 1986,4(1):37-44, 116.]
[4]	Cui Peng, Jia Yang, Su Fenghuan , et al. Natural hazards in Tibetan Plateau and key issue for feature research. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017,32(9):985-992.
	[ 崔鹏, 贾洋, 苏凤环 , 等. 青藏高原自然灾害发育现状与未来关注的科学问题. 中国科学院院刊, 2017,32(9):985-992.]
[5]	Cui Peng, Zhuang Jianqi, Chen Xingchang , et al. Characteristics and countermeasures of debris flow in Wenchuan area after the earthquake. Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition) 2010,42(5):10-19.
	[ 崔鹏, 庄建琦, 陈兴长 , 等. 汶川地震区震后泥石流活动特征与防治对策. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2010,42(5):10-19.]
[6]	Zhang S, Zhang L, Lacasse S , et al. Evolution of mass movements near epicentre of Wenchuan earthquake, the first eight years. Scientific Reports, 2016,6:36154.
[7]	Qin Dahe, Zhang Jianyun, Shan Chunchang , et al. China's Climate Extreme and Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation to the National Assessment Report. Beijing: Science Press, 2015.
	[ 秦大河, 张建云, 闪淳昌 , 等. 中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告, 北京: 科学出版社, 2015.]
[8]	Qin P, Xie Z . Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2016,121:6802-6821.
[9]	Winter M, Dent J, Macgregor F , et al. Debris flow, rainfall and climate change in Scotland. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 2010,43:429-446.
[10]	Huang R, Fan X . The landslide story. Nature Geoscience, 2013,6:325-326.
[11]	Tang Chuan, Liang Jingtao . Characteristics of debris flows in Beichuan epicenter of the Wenchuan eathquake triggered by rainstrom on September 24, 2008. Journal of Engineering Geology. 2008,16(6):751-758.
	[ 唐川, 梁京涛 . 汶川震区北川9.24暴雨泥石流特征研究. 工程地质学报, 2008,16(6):751-758.]
[12]	Tang C, Zhu J, Li W L , et al. Rainfall-triggered debris flows following the Wenchuan earthquake. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2009,68(2):187-194.
[13]	Guo Xiaojun, Cui Peng, Marchi Lorenzo , et al. Characteristics of rainfall responsible for debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake area. Environmental Earth Science, 2017,76:596.
[14]	Guo Xiaojun, Cui Peng, Li Yong , et al. Spatial features of debris flows and their rainfall thresholds in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area. Landslides, 2016,13(5):1215-1229.
[15]	Ma Chao, He Xiaoyang, Hu Kaiheng . Preliminary research on the rainfall threshold and warning grades of clustering debris flow in Wenchuan earthquake region, southwestern China. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2015,37(9):37-44.
	[ 马超, 何晓燕, 胡凯衡 . 汶川地震灾区泥石流群发雨量及预警等级划分. 北京林业大学学报, 2015,37(9):37-44.]
[16]	Lei Fahong, Hu Kaiheng, Hu Yunhua , et al. Excitation rainfall of debris flows in the stricken area of Wenchuan earthquake. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014,29(2):199-203.
	[ 雷发洪, 胡凯衡, 胡云华 , 等. 汶川地震灾区震后泥石流激发雨量研究. 灾害学, 2014,29(2):199-203.]
[17]	Ding Mingtao, Wang Jun, Cheng Zunlan , et al. Sensitivity of land use types to debris flow in the upper reaches of Min River, China. Mountain Research, 2015,33(5):587-596.
	[ 丁明涛, 王骏, 程尊兰 , 等. 岷江上游土地利用类型对泥石流灾害的敏感性. 山地学报, 2015,33(5):587-596.]
[18]	Ding Jun, Wang Jun . Analysis of the geological hazards' distribution and development trend in Dadu River catchments of Sichuan Province. The Chinese Journal Geological Hazard and Control, 2007,18(S1):22-25.
	[ 丁俊, 王军 . 四川省大渡河流域地质灾害分布及其发展趋势浅析. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2007,18(S1):22-25.]
[19]	Bian Jianghao, Li Xiuzhen, Hu Kaiheng . Study on distribution characteristics and dynamic evolution of mountain hazards in Hengduan Mountains area. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2018,26(s):6-13.
	[ 边江豪, 李秀珍, 胡凯衡 . 横断山区山地灾害的区域分布特征与动态演化规律研究. 工程地质学报, 2018,26(s):6-13.]
[20]	Hu Kaiheng, Chen Cheng, Li Xiuzhen , et al. Dynamic assessment of debris-flow susceptibility under the influence of earthquake and rainfall events. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2018,29(2):1-8.
	[ 胡凯衡, 陈成, 李秀珍 , 等. 地震区降雨作用下泥石流易发性动态评估. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2018,29(2):1-8.]
[21]	The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Comprehensive Science Research Team of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhang Rongzu, Zheng Du , et al. Natural Geography of Hengduan Mountain. Beijing: Science Press, 1997.
	[ 中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队, 张荣祖, 郑度 , 等. 横断山区自然地理. 北京: 科学出版社, 1997.]
[22]	Pan Yusheng . Division of geologic structure in the Hengduan Mountainous region. Mountain Research, 1989,7(1):3-12.
	[ 潘裕生 . 横断山区地质构造分区. 山地研究, 1989,7(1):3-12.]
[23]	Zhu G, He Y, Pu T , et al. Spatial distribution and temporal trends in potential evapotranspiration over Hengduan Mountains region from 1960 to 2009. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012,22(1):71-85.
[24]	Wang Jinfeng, Xu Chengdong . Geodetector: Principle and prospective. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017(1):116-134.
	[ 王劲峰, 徐成东 . 地理探测器: 原理与展望. 地理学报, 2017(1):116-134.]
[25]	Reichenbach P, Rossi M, Malamud B , et al. A review of statistically-based landslide susceptibility models. Earth-Science Reviews, 2018,180:60-91.
[26]	Deng Huiping, Li Xiubin . Relationship of upslope contribution area and soil water content in TOPMODEL. Progress in Geography, 2002,21(2):103-110. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2002.02.002
	[ 邓慧平, 李秀彬 . 地形指数的物理意义分析. 地理科学进展, 2002,21(2):103-110.] doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2002.02.002
[27]	Zhang Yiguang . Climatic division of the Hengduan Mountainous region. Mountain Research, 1989,7(1):21-28.
	[ 张谊光 . 横断山区气候区划. 山地研究, 1989,7(1):21-28.]
[28]	Singh T, Patnaik A, Chauhan R . Optimization of tribological properties of cement kiln dust-filled brake pad using grey relation analysis. Materials & Design, 2016,89:1335-1342.
[29]	Zhuang Jianqi, Cui Peng, Ge Yonggang , et al. Relationship between rainfall characteristics and total amount of debris flow. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2009,31(4):77-83.
	[ 庄建琦, 崔鹏, 葛永刚 , 等. 降雨特征与泥石流总量的关系分析. 北京林业大学学报, 2009,31(4):77-83.]
[30]	Yong B, Liu D, Gourley J J , et al. Global view of real-time TRMM multisatellite precipitation analysis: Implications for its successor global precipitation measurement mission. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015,96(2):283-296.

区编号	最低海拔(m)	最高海拔(m)	海拔标准差(m)	气候类型	地貌类型	地质类型
子区1	322	6998	654	东部季风	云贵川高中山山原	华南和亲华南陆块群
子区2	669	4362	502	东部季风	云贵川高中山山原	冈瓦纳和亲冈瓦纳大陆陆块群
子区3	773	7447	767	东部季风	横断高山山原	华南和亲华南陆块群
子区4	290	5846	725	东部季风	横断高山山原	冈瓦纳和亲冈瓦纳大陆陆块群
子区5	1479	6144	491	青藏高寒	横断高山山原	华南和亲华南陆块群
子区6	1954	6629	471	青藏高寒	横断高山山原	冈瓦纳和亲冈瓦纳大陆陆块群

数据名称	时间	数据来源	数据格式
泥石流灾害事件	1998-2017	文献、新闻搜集	点状图层
泥石流沟		水工环地质信息服务平台	点状图层
年平均降雨量	1998-2017	TRMM 3B42v7	25 km×25 km格网
日降水量分别大于10 mm、25 mm及50 mm的20年平均总天数	1998-2017	TRMM 3B42v7	25 km×25 km格网
地貌分区	1989	文献[2]	面图层
地质分区	1989	文献[23]	面图层
气候分区	1989	文献[24]	面图层
土地覆盖	2000	寒区旱区科学数据中心	1 km×1 km格网
土壤厚度	2000	中山大学陆气相互作用研究工作组	10 km×10 km格网
高程	2000	STRM	90 m×90 m格网