地理学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (6): 1097-1111.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201906003
收稿日期:
2018-01-08
修回日期:
2018-03-07
出版日期:
2019-06-25
发布日期:
2019-06-20
作者简介:
周沂(1988-), 女, 博士, 副研究员, 研究方为城市与区域经济发展、产业演化与出口升级。E-mail: yizhou@scu.edu.cn
基金资助:
Received:
2018-01-08
Revised:
2018-03-07
Published:
2019-06-25
Online:
2019-06-20
Supported by:
摘要:
区域产业不断演化与升级推动区域的持续发展。演化经济地理学强调内生发展过程中路径依赖的作用,却忽视了外生因素以及制度因素等所带来的路径突破和创造的机会。利用中国海关进出口数据,研究中国城市出口产品的演化路径。结果表明:总体上,中国城市出口产品演化发展受到原有产品结构的影响,表现为路径依赖。然而,这种路径依赖发展模式存在显著的区域差异。具体而言,东部和中部地区城市出口产品演化受到产品关联的影响最大,更多的是扩展与本地具有技术关联的产品;而西部和东北地区对技术关联的依赖相对较弱。进一步的研究发现,对外联系、技术关联集聚经济和制度环境均有利于削弱对城市现有产品结构的依赖,有助于创造新路径。
周沂,贺灿飞. 中国城市出口产品演化[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(6): 1097-1111.
ZHOU Yi,HE Canfei. Evolution of urban export product in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(6): 1097-1111.
表1
技术关联与中国城市出口产品演化
2001-2006年 | 2007-2013年 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
全国 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | 全国 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | ||
xc, i, t1 | 0.549*** | 0.674*** | 0.581*** | 0.465*** | 0.505*** | 0.566*** | 0.619*** | 0.560*** | 0.478*** | 0.571*** | |
(0.021) | (0.019) | (0.016) | (0.021) | (0.037) | (0.017) | (0.019) | (0.016) | (0.022) | (0.058) | ||
density×(1-xc, i, t1) | 1.728*** | 3.191*** | 3.930*** | 0.438* | 2.882*** | 2.410*** | 2.457*** | 3.801*** | 1.939*** | 1.446** | |
(0.468) | (0.179) | (0.347) | (0.228) | (0.334) | (0.163) | (0.123) | (0.242) | (0.398) | (0.593) | ||
density×xc, i, t1 | 1.594*** | 1.880*** | 2.994*** | 1.315*** | 2.562*** | 1.721*** | 1.601*** | 2.694*** | 1.716*** | 0.721 | |
(0.234) | (0.178) | (0.286) | (0.221) | (0.458) | (0.217) | (0.128) | (0.225) | (0.370) | (0.991) | ||
City Fe | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Product Fe | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
_cons | -0.032** | -0.143*** | -0.056*** | -0.000 | -0.070*** | -0.061*** | -0.126*** | -0.069*** | -0.020* | -0.046 | |
(0.016) | (0.016) | (0.009) | (0.008) | (0.020) | (0.009) | (0.016) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.034) | ||
N | 375024 | 100968 | 93756 | 137028 | 43272 | 375024 | 100968 | 93756 | 137028 | 43272 | |
R2 | 0.580 | 0.587 | 0.430 | 0.418 | 0.518 | 0.566 | 0.577 | 0.432 | 0.426 | 0.490 |
表2
产品差异
2001-2006年 | 2007-2013年 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
纺织品 | 机械与电子产品 | 矿产品 | 纺织品 | 机械与电子产品 | 矿产品 | ||
xc, i, t1 | 0.515*** | 0.530*** | 0.509*** | 0.532*** | 0.600*** | 0.514*** | |
(0.027) | (0.027) | (0.028) | (0.032) | (0.019) | (0.028) | ||
density×(1- xc,i,t1) | 1.718*** | 2.906*** | 1.699*** | 2.454*** | 4.905*** | 1.573*** | |
(0.512) | (0.806) | (0.272) | (0.215) | (0.359) | (0.166) | ||
density×xc, i, t1 | 1.641*** | 2.608*** | 1.880*** | 1.881*** | 3.273*** | 1.344*** | |
(0.259) | (0.540) | (0.262) | (0.270) | (0.341) | (0.236) | ||
City Fe | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Product Fe | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
_cons | 0.022 | -0.054 | -0.023* | -0.027 | -0.162*** | -0.008 | |
(0.034) | (0.058) | (0.012) | (0.020) | (0.031) | (0.010) | ||
N | 46800 | 41184 | 20280 | 46800 | 41184 | 20280 | |
R2 | 0.617 | 0.595 | 0.488 | 0.596 | 0.580 | 0.459 |
表3
中国城市出口产品演化的路径创造
2001-2006年 | 2007-2013年 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | ||
density | 1.898*** | 2.039*** | 2.539*** | 2.248*** | 2.001*** | 1.402*** | 1.973*** | 3.462*** | 1.416** | 1.400*** | |||
Xc,i,t1 | 0.605*** | 0.534*** | 0.560*** | 0.605*** | 0.586*** | 0.528*** | 0.582*** | 0.514*** | 0.524*** | 0.547*** | 0.572*** | 0.509*** | |
FDI | 0.064*** | 0.0444** | 0.057*** | 0.080*** | |||||||||
IMP | 2.84×10-11 | 6.48×10-10** | 6.18×10-10** | 5.44×10-10** | 6.01×10-10** | 5.64×10-10** | 5.48×10-13 | 1.56×10-10*** | 1.58×10-10*** | 1.20×10-10*** | 1.51×10-10*** | 1.10×10-10*** | |
RV | 0.001*** | -0.000470 | -0.0001 | -0.0007* | |||||||||
UV | 0.061*** | -0.0235*** | 0.059*** | -0.008 | |||||||||
SO | 8.565*** | 6.738*** | 9.102*** | 8.072*** | |||||||||
EO | 0.0223 | -0.0187 | 0.028 | -0.0251 | |||||||||
Import×density×(1-xc,i,t1) | -2.33×10-9 | -2.44×10-9 | -2.20×10-9 | -2.42×10-9 | -2.21×10-9 | -6.56×10-10*** | -6.73×10-10*** | -5.24×10-10*** | -6.54×10-10*** | -4.83×10-10*** | |||
Import×density×xc,i,t1 | -2.34×10-9** | -2.21×10-9** | -1.99×10-9** | -2.11×10-9** | -1.96×10-9** | -5.53×10-10*** | -5.47×10-10*** | -4.31×10-10*** | -5.07×10-10*** | -4.04×10-10*** | |||
FDI×density×(1-xc,i,t1) | 0.334 | -0.242 | |||||||||||
FDI×density×xc,i,t1 | -0.661*** | -0.265 | |||||||||||
RV×density×(1-xc,i,t1) | 0.003 | -0.005 | |||||||||||
RV×density×xc,i,t1 | -0.007** | -0.0101*** | |||||||||||
UV×density×(1-xc,i,t1) | -0.036 | -0.570*** | |||||||||||
UV×density×xc,i,t1 | -0.315*** | -0.705*** | |||||||||||
EO×density×(1-xc,i,t1) | -0.074 | 0.278 | |||||||||||
EO×density×xc,i,t1 | -0.832** | -0.271 | |||||||||||
SO×density×(1-xc,i,t1) | -20.96 | -17.77 | |||||||||||
SO×density×xc,i,t1 | -38.75*** | -21.94 | |||||||||||
CityFe | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
ProductFe | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
_cons | -0.0919** | 0.0205 | -0.0230 | 0.0251 | 0.0304 | 0.0491 | -0.103** | 0.0582** | -0.0471* | -0.131*** | 0.0791* | -0.0113 | |
(0.0431) | (0.0208) | (0.0304) | (0.0261) | (0.0209) | (0.0314) | (0.0449) | (0.0274) | (0.0284) | (0.0314) | (0.0461) | (0.0270) | ||
N | 234224 | 234224 | 234224 | 234224 | 234224 | 234224 | 240382 | 240382 | 240382 | 240382 | 240382 | 240382 | |
R2 | 0.548 | 0.570 | 0.571 | 0.573 | 0.571 | 0.571 | 0.534 | 0.549 | 0.555 | 0.554 | 0.550 | 0.551 |
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