地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (6): 1076-1092.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201806007

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群城镇扩展格局与驱动力多维解析

王海军1,2(),张彬1,刘耀林1,2,3,刘艳芳1,2,3,徐姗4,5(),邓羽5,赵雲泰6,陈宇琛6,洪松1   

  1. 1. 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉 430079
    2. 武汉大学地理信息系统教育部重点实验室,武汉430079
    3. 武汉大学地理空间信息技术协同创新中心,武汉 430079
    4. 中国城市科学研究会,北京 100048
    5. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    6. 中国土地勘测规划院,北京 100035
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-14 出版日期:2018-06-10 发布日期:2018-06-04
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41571384);国土资源部土地资源调查评价项目(DCPJ161207-01);国家基础科学人才培养基金项目(J1103409);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71433008);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所秉维优秀人才基金项目

Multi-dimensional analysis of urban expansion patterns and their driving forces based on the center of gravity-GTWR model: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

WANG Haijun1,2(),ZHANG Bin1,LIU Yaolin1,2,3,LIU Yanfang1,2,3,XU Shan4,5(),DENG Yu5,ZHAO Yuntai6,CHEN Yuchen6,HONG Song1   

  1. 1. School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
    3. Collaborative Innovation Center for Geospatial Information Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
    4. Chinese Society for Urban Studies, Beijing 100048, China
    5. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    6. China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China
  • Received:2017-08-14 Online:2018-06-10 Published:2018-06-04
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571384;Land Resources Survey and Evaluation Project of Ministry of Land and Resources of China, No.DCPJ161207-01;Fund for Fostering Talents in Basic Science of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.J1103409;Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71433008;Programme of Excellent Young Scientists of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS

摘要:

城镇用地扩展格局及驱动力研究对城市群发展规划与决策具有重要意义。以京津冀地区为例,基于城镇用地扩展强度指数、城镇用地扩展差异指数、分形维数、土地城镇化率和重心转移模型,多维解析了城市群城镇用地扩展格局特征,并耦合重心转移模型和时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型构建重心-GTWR模型,在对空间格局进行长时间序列多维度指标分析的基础上,运用该模型依序对其特征进行驱动力解读,进而总结凝练京津冀区域发展的主导模式与城市核心驱动力。主要结论为:① 1990-2015年,京津冀城市群城镇用地扩展强度呈现“下降—上升—下降”的趋势,高峰时期在2005-2010年,在2005年之前高速发展城市集中在北京、天津、保定和廊坊,2005年之后集中在邢台和邯郸;② 城市群城镇用地重心虽呈现出发散态势,但城市之间的局部相互作用力逐渐增强,城镇用地扩展驱动力表现出空间溢出特征;③ 京津冀城市群空间发展模式由以北京和天津为中心的双核发展模式向多核发展模式转变,并出现北部资源运输核心、中部经济发展核心和南部投资发展核心三大功能核心组团,城市群趋向于多核功能协同发展模式;④ 重心-GTWR模型结合了时空非平稳性和城市空间相互作用,将城市群城镇用地扩展作为一个时空变化系统进行分析,经验证,该模型在城镇用地扩展格局驱动力分析研究中具有可行性。

关键词: 城镇用地扩展, 驱动力, 重心转移, 时空地理加权回归, 京津冀

Abstract:

Research into urban expansion patterns and their driving forces is of great significance. Under the background of the integrated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) urban agglomeration, it is important to study the temporal and spatial patterns of urban land expansion and the driving forces development. This paper uses land-use data of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2015 and reveals the multi-dimensional characteristics of the urban land expansion patterns. We then combine the urban spatial interaction and the spatial and temporal nonstationarity of the urban land expansion process and build the center of gravity-geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model by coupling the center of gravity model with the GTWR model. Using the center of gravity-GTWR model, we analyze the driving forces of urban land expansion at the city scale, and summarize the dominant mode and core driving forces of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration. The results show that: (1) Between 1990 and 2015, the expansion intensity of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration showed a down-up-down trend, and the peak period of expansion was in 2005-2010. Before 2005, high-speed development was seen in Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, and Langfang, which were then followed by rapid development in Xingtai and Handan. (2) Although the center of gravity of cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration showed a divergent trend, the local interaction between cities was enhanced, and the driving forces of urban land expansion showed a characteristic of spatial spillover. (3) The spatial development mode of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration changed from a dual-core development mode to a multi-core development mode, which was made up of three function cores: the transportation core in the northern part, the economic development core in the central part, and the investment core in the southern part. The integrated development between functional cores led to the multi-core development mode. (4) The center of gravity-GTWR model analyzes urban land expansion as a space-time dynamic system. The model proved to be feasible in the analysis of the driving forces of urban land expansion.

Key words: urban land expansion, driving forces, center of gravity, geographically and temporally weighted regression, Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration