地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (6): 808-822.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201406008

• 金融与产业地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

技术扩散和资本流动作用下中国区域空间结构演化——基于Agent的模拟

顾高翔1, 王铮2,3   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学人口研究所和地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海200241;
    2. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所, 北京100190;
    3. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海200241
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-29 修回日期:2014-05-16 出版日期:2014-06-20 发布日期:2014-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 王铮(1954-),男,云南陆良人,研究员,博士生导师,中国地理学会会员(S110003918M),主要从事经济计算、地理计算、区域科学与管理研究。E-mail:wangzheng@mail.casipm.ac.cn E-mail:wangzheng@mail.casipm.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:顾高翔(1985-),男,浙江宁波人,博士,研究方向为地理计算、经济计算。E-mail:caesarggx@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(70933002);国家重大研究计划(973) 项目(2012CB955800)

Agent-based simulation on the evolution and development of regional spatial structure with technology and capital diffusion in China

GU Gaoxiang1, WANG Zheng2,3   

  1. 1. Institute of Population Research, Key Laboratory of Geographical Information Science, Ministry of Education of China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
    2. Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing, 100190, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Geographical Information Science, Ministry of Education of China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Received:2013-06-29 Revised:2014-05-16 Online:2014-06-20 Published:2014-07-30
  • Supported by:
    The Key Project of National Natural Science, No.70933002; The State Key Development Program on Basic Research of China, No.2012CB955800

摘要: 空间结构是区域的基本组成部分,在空间交互过程和区域经济发展方面起着重要的作用。本文的主要研究目标是在不同的道路交通系统作用下,中国区域空间结构的发展演化过程。这对于解决中国当前经济发展中的不平衡问题,探索使区域平衡发展的方法具有重要意义。与传统的研究方法不同,本文从自上而下建模的角度构建了一个基于Agent 的动态区域经济模型。在模型中,中国的每个地级市都被定义为企业Agent,拥有不同技术水平的劳动者Agent 为企业提供劳动力,并在Wilson 空间吸引力模型的作用下在区域之间迁移。技术作用于劳动力之上,随劳动者的迁移而扩散。资本由企业的投资行为而转移。模型中的道路交通线具有不同的权值,这意味着道路交通网是异质的。通过情景模拟,得到以下结论:在分级道路交通网的作用下,传统的中心—腹地扩散模式已不再适用。技术服从枢纽—网络结构从中心城市向外扩散。资本的流动也具有与技术扩散相似的过程和空间结构。交通条件可以在很大程度上影响区域的发展,同时自然条件仍然起着空间锁定的作用。优惠的税率政策可以在一定程度上打破这种空间锁定,有利于吸引劳动者迁移,提高当地的生产技术水平。

关键词: 空间结构, 道路交通网络, 资本流动, 中国, 基于Agent模拟, 技术扩散

Abstract: Spatial structure is a basic component of regional science, and plays an important role in spatial interactions and regional economic development. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the development and evolution of China's spatial structure under different traffic systems and its influence on the regional economy and interactions, such as technology diffusion and capital flow. This information is important because we need to explore various measures to improve the imbalanced economic development in China. In this study, unlike in previous structure researches, an agent-based dynamic regional economic model is built from the perspective of bottom-up modeling. In this model, each prefecture-level city in China has been defined as a firm agent, and the Cobb-Douglas production function is adopted. Heterogeneous laborer agents with different technology levels move between firm agents. The laborer migration behavior is affected by Wilson spatial attenuation. The technologies diffuse with the process of laborer migration. Capital also moves between agents as an investment behavior of firms. Different types of roads are endowed with different weights to form a heterogeneous traffic network in this model. A simulation system is built to combine GIS components. Three scenarios are identified to account for the effects of the hierarchical traffic network and preferential tax policies on the evolution of Chinese regional structure. The simulated results indicate that the traditional center-hinterland diffusion mode is no longer appropriate under the impact of heterogeneous traffic network in reality. The technologies firstly diffuse from center cities to sub-hubs along the major traffic lines, following a hub-net diffusion structure, and later from sub-hubs to ordinary nodes located at the branch lines. This phenomenon can also be observed in the capital flow process, in which the capital hubs first interconnect and form a capital flow network along the major traffic roads. After that, the network extends to adjacent ordinary nodes. It is also demonstrated that traffic conditions are important for regional development and that the basic spatial lock-in created by the natural endowments still exists. A preferential tax policy can break such a spatial lock-in to a certain extent and will be conductive to attracting the immigration of laborers and improving the local technology level for less developed regions.

Key words: spatial structure, technology diffusion, capital flow, agent-based simulation, traffic network, China