地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (6): 723-737.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201406001

• 人口与城市地理 •    下一篇

基于分县尺度的中国人口分布适宜度研究

封志明, 杨艳昭, 游珍, 张景华   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2013-09-03 修回日期:2014-01-23 出版日期:2014-06-20 发布日期:2014-06-20
  • 作者简介:封志明(1963-),河北平山人,博士,研究员,主要从事资源开发与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:fengzm@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国土资源部重点实验室开放基金项目;国家人口计生委流动人口司研究项目

Research on the suitability of population distribution at the county level in China

FENG Zhiming, YANG Yanzhao, YOU Zhen, ZHANG Jinghua   

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2013-09-03 Revised:2014-01-23 Published:2014-06-20 Online:2014-06-20
  • Supported by:
    Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, MLR; Department of Services and Management of Migrant Population, NHFPC

摘要: 以人口空间分布及其与资源环境和社会经济协调性评价为核心,提出了一整套人口与资源环境和经济社会发展协调水平评价的指标体系与模型方法;以分县为基本单元,定量评价了2010 年中国人口与资源环境和社会经济发展的协调性和协调程度;根据人口分布适宜度高低和限制性差别,划分了中国分县人口分布适宜等级和限制类型,定量揭示了中国不同地区人口与资源环境和社会经济协调发展的时空格局和地域特征。研究表明:① 2010 年中国有3/5 以上的县(市、区) 人口分布与人居环境基本适宜,中国分县人口分布与人居环境自然适宜性保持了高度一致性;② 2010 年中国有1/2 以上的县(市、区) 人口发展基本不受水土资源约束,分县人口分布与水土资源适宜性处于中等水平;③ 2010 年中国有超3/5 的县(市、区) 人口与社会经济发展基本协调,人口分布的社会经济协调性良好;④ 2010 年中国近3/5 的县(市、区) 人口分布适宜度在60 以上,人口资源环境与发展处于基本协调或相对协调状态;⑤2010 年中国分县人口资源环境与发展的协调程度东部优于中部、中部优于西部;⑥ 2010 年中国分县人口分布适宜度可划分为人口资源环境与发展基本协调、相对协调、有待协调和亟待协调4个适宜等级与10 个限制类型。

关键词: 人口, 分县, 中国, 适宜度, 协调

Abstract: The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment, social and economic development has attracted much attention for a long time. This paper set up an index system and some models for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment, social and economic development. Then it used the index system and models to evaluate this coordination quantitatively at the county level. Based on this, the suitability and restriction of population distribution at the county level was graded and classified respectively, and its spatial and temporal patterns as well as regional characteristics were also revealed quantitatively. The results showed that: (1) population distribution was generally coordinated with human settlements environment in more than 3/5 of counties in China in 2010, which meant that population distribution was highly consistent with the natural suitability of human settlements environment at the county level; (2) population growth was merely not restricted by water and land resources in about half of counties in China in 2010, indicating that population distribution had medium coordination with the suitability of water and land resources; (3) population distribution was generally coordinated with social and economic development in more than 3/5 of counties in China in 2010, suggesting that population distribution was highly consistent with social and economic development; (4) the suitability degree of population distribution was larger than 60 in about 3/5 of counties in China in 2010, which showed that the relationship between population, resources, environment and development was coordinated or relatively coordinated; (5) as for the coordination between population, resources, environment and development at the county level, the eastern region was the best, the central region ranked second and the western region was the worst; (6) the suitability degree of population distribution at the county level could be identified into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, under coordination and urgent need for coordination and 10 restricted classes.

Key words: suitability, coordination, China, population, county