As a hot regional research realm, regional resilience provides a new research perspective toward regional sustainable development. At the same time, regional resilience is also an important research paradigm of sustainability science. Based on literature from a core database (Web of Science) launched between 1991 and 2019 on the topic of "regional resilience," this study presents a knowledge graph analysis of regional resilience research. The citation visualization analysis software (CiteSpace5.0) was applied. Keywords co-occurrence network analysis, co-citation clustering analysis, social network co-occurrence analysis, and other analytical methods were adopted. This research drew the following three conclusions: 1) The quantity of regional resilience research shows an upward trend, and it mainly focuses on ecosystem, regional economy, social ecosystem, and social well-being. Five countries—including the U.S., Australia, Britain, Canada, China—and research institutes such as the University of Stockholm, University of Queensland, James Cook University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, U.S. Geological Survey, and University of Cambridge are strongly competitive in terms of research on resilience. 2) The representative works of scholars such as Ron Martin, Carl Folke, Angeler D. G., Craig R. Allen, and Gillian Bristow laid a solid knowledge foundation for regional resilience studies. Furthermore, their collaboration deepened the research on regional resilience. Ron Martin is a significant scholar in the field of the theory of regional resilience evolution, and his research reflects how regional resilience evolves from equilibrium theory to evolution theory. 3) Regional economy, social ecosystem, social well-being, and method exploration are hot topics in regional resilience research. According to keyword classification and citation clustering analysis, the research hotspots of regional resilience are mainly concentrated in the following four categories: 1) Due to global warming and increases in human activities, ecosystem disturbances have increased, and the protection of ecosystem diversity has become a long-term research topic. In addition, biodiversity and ecosystem services and management have become new growth points and strategic development directions of geography. 2) Recently, the world economy has been gloomy; global climate is continuously deteriorating, while regional unrest and frictional issues are increasing. At present, with increasing uncertainties in the global economy, how regions maintain long-term development under external strikes has become the core focus of regional resilience research. Not only should the economic structure be adjusted and optimized, but the stable supply of regional food and energy as well as a stable political and social environment should also be emphasized in regional resilience research. 3) Methodological breakthroughs are key points in regional resilience research. Regional resilience is an interdisciplinary concept that requires comprehensive interdisciplinary research, social-economic scenario analysis, and the construction of multilevel models. Exploration of interdisciplinary and multi-level methods is conducive to promoting the standardization and rationalization of regional resilience research. 4) Empirical research is the trend of regional resilience research. Combining resilience research with specific situations is beneficial in solving scientific problems, providing scientific guidance in relevant policies, and boosting the significance of regional resilience in the process of policymaking. With the deepening of the internationalization process, combining specific problems of certain regions and conducting theoretical and empirical research on regional resilience have become an inevitable path for researchers.

基于Web of science核心数据库中1991—2019年收录主题为“regional resilience”的文献数据，利用CiteSpace5.0软件，采取关键词共现网络分析、共被引文献聚类分析、社会网络共现分析等方法对区域弹性研究现状进行知识图谱可视化。结果发现：1）区域弹性相关研究文献发表数量总体呈上升趋势，主要集中在生态环境、区域经济、社会生态系统以及社会福祉等领域；美、澳、英、加、中5国以及斯德哥尔摩大学、昆士兰大学、詹姆斯·库克大学、中国科学院、美国地质勘探局、剑桥大学等研究机构在弹性领域具有雄厚的科研实力。2）Ron Martin、Carl Folke、Angeler DG、Craig R Allen以及Gillian Bristow等学者及其代表文章是区域弹性研究的知识基础。3）区域经济、社会生态系统、社会福祉以及方法突破是区域弹性研究的热点内容。未来研究中应结合中国高质量发展背景，构建具有本土特色的区域弹性理论框架和多学科融合的研究范式，为社会高质量、安全发展提供政策建议和实践方案。

Under the background of global environmental change and urbanization, various risks and uncertainties have posed an important obstacle on urban security and urban sustainable development. As a potential new approach of urban risk management, urban resilience can improve the ability to resist, dissolve, and adapt when facing risks and uncertainties, and expound the adaptive scheme of risks in the process of rapid urbanization. Urban resilience has been a new topic in geography and related disciplines. Based on the origin and concept of urban resilience research, from the perspective of the impact of various factors (human, environmental, disaster) on urban resilience, this study constructed a theoretical framework of urban resilience, including evaluation and scenario simulation, and discussed the status of urban resilience research, pointing out that there are still many weak links in the theoretical framework, mechanism, practical application, and difference analysis of urban resilience research. Finally, the key directions of urban resilience research were also discussed. The theoretical framework should be used as a guide to promote multi-objective, multi-level, and multi-perspective systematic evaluation research. With the analysis of mechanism as support, studies should aim to achieve a new breakthrough in process simulation of urban resilience and decision making and early warning. Oriented by empirical research, studies should continue to strengthen the application model of multidisciplinary integration and exploration of urban resilience. Considering regional differences, further work should try to achieve a change in urban planning from the unified "one policy for multi-city" approach to the flexible "one policy for one city" approach.

在全球环境变化和快速城市化的背景下,各种不确定风险成为制约城市安全和可持续发展的重要障碍。城市韧性作为一种城市风险治理的新思路,如何提高城市抵御、消解、适应不确定风险的能力,建设有韧性能力的城市,正成为当前地理学及其相关学科领域亟待探索的新课题。论文在概述城市韧性的研究缘起与概念内涵的基础上,从多种要素(人文要素、环境要素、灾害扰动)对城市韧性的影响、城市韧性框架、城市韧性评价及模拟研究等方面出发,对可持续发展视角的城市韧性研究现状进行探讨,并指出当前城市韧性研究在理论框架、作用机理、实证研究、差异性分析等方面仍存在诸多薄弱环节。最后,对城市韧性重点研究方向进行展望,即应以理论框架为引领,推动多目标、多层次、多视角的系统评价研究;以机理解析为支撑,实现城市韧性的动态模拟与决策预警的新突破;以实证研究为导向,继续加强多学科融合和探索城市韧性的应用模式;遵循差异性规律,实现城市规划治理从统一的“多城一策”向灵活的“一城一策”转变。

In evolutionary economics, the notion of path creation has attracted much attention in recent years. Previous research has expounded the possibility of path dependence and path creation in the process of regional industrial evolution, but it remains unknown that who changes the existing production capacity and accomplishes path creation. This article focuses on regional production capacity, and applies the indicator of density defined by Hidalgo. Based on the data of 424 four-digit industry of 337 prefecture-level cities in China from 1999 to 2012, this article discusses the path creation of China's industrial evolution. It is found that the entry and exit of an industry would break the original production structure of a region and become the creator of a new path. Governmental subsidies, on the one hand, can promote the development of a region's existing production capacity to enhance the regional's path dependence trend, but also can influence industry dynamics and accelerate the process of path creation. The selection of evolutionary path has significant regional differences. This study will help deepen the understanding of the change of China's industrial structure and its regional differentiation, and provides new evidence from developing countries for the development of evolutionary economic geography.

在经济转型新阶段,如何突破已有资源条件的束缚,创造新的产业发展路径是区域经济增长的突破口。路径依赖和路径突破是区域创造产业发展路径的两种途径,已有演化经济地理学研究证实区域生产结构的演化依赖地区已有生产能力,是一种路径依赖的结果,而谁是突破区域现有生产能力实现新路径创造的开拓者却尚未得知。本文基于1999-2012年中国337个地级城市的424个四位数产业数据,沿用Hidalgo等人对生产能力的定义,研究中国产业演化过程中路径突破的可能,结果发现：地区新产业的进入以及已有产业的退出有助于地区突破对原有生产结构的依赖,是区域产业发展新路径的创造者。政府补贴一方面有利于地区现有生产能力的提升,增强地区路径依赖趋势;另一方面可为地区带来新的路径,实现路径突破并为区域创造新的发展机会。此外,政府补贴影响产业演化路径选择的效用受地方财政能力限制,并在空间上存在显著差异。

Economies grow by upgrading the products they produce and export. The technology, capital, institutions, and skills needed to make newer products are more easily adapted from some products than from others. Here, we study this network of relatedness between products, or "product space," finding that more-sophisticated products are located in a densely connected core whereas less-sophisticated products occupy a less-connected periphery. Empirically, countries move through the product space by developing goods close to those they currently produce. Most countries can reach the core only by traversing empirically infrequent distances, which may help explain why poor countries have trouble developing more competitive exports and fail to converge to the income levels of rich countries.

<p>As the Chinese population and industrial highly concentrated area, eastern coastal areas accepted a large volume of foreign and domestic investment and became one of the global factories. However, this industrial development process was at the cost of high resources input, environmental pollution, ecological damage and land resource shortage. Taking prefecture-level cities as research units, this paper defined the industrial green transformation coefficient and environmental pressure change coefficient, analyzed the spatial patterns of evolution of industrial structure and efficient and environmental pressure. Further, 114 prefecture-level administrative units were classified into four types of zones with a two-dimensional four-quadrant division method. Also, corresponding suggestions for green transformation routes and environmental regulation were proposed to different zones were proposed. </p><p>As for pressure reduction & industries green transformation zones, they are mainly composed of two types of area, one is the core cities of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations and the other is the inland cities taking ecological conservation as the regional main function. We should encourage the former to develop smart and high-level manufacturing, and limit the entering and layout of high-pollution industries for the latter. As for pressure reduction & industries non-green transformation zones, they are only located in several core cities of urban agglomeration, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Hangzhou and Dalian, which have some heavy chemical industrial projects, and some cities in eastern Guangdong and eastern Guangxi. We should strengthen the function of "command and control" at the heart of the urban agglomeration for those core cities, develop modern service industries, limit the development of heavy and chemical industries and drop out low-level manufactures based on the strict environmental standard. Given the environmental problems caused by industrial spatial transfer in some cities of western Guangdong and eastern Guangxi, attention should be given to increasing technical level of transferring products producing and pollutants processing. As for pressure intensification & industries green transformation zones, they mainly include some traditional old industrial base cities. Hence, their industrial restructuring should focus on improving industrial technical level, cultivating and developing new materials, energy-saving and environmental protection industries, and cut backward and excessive production capacity based on strict environmental regulation standards. As for pressure intensification & industries non-green transformation zones, they are mainly distributed in the coastal cities with heavy chemical industry projects or the peripheral cities that undertake the industrial spatial transfer, where the environmental criteria of industrial and space access should be upgraded.</p>

沿海地区高速和高度集聚的产业发展导致其面临严峻的环境污染问题,切实需要在综合考虑地区产业转型特征和环境压力变化规律及其耦合关系的基础上制定科学的产业绿色转型路径和环境管制政策。以沿海地区地级市为空间单元,构建了产业绿色化转型系数,从结构转型和效率转型两个方面对沿海地区2005-2013年产业转型的空间格局进行了刻画,并以产业绿色化转型系数和环境压力系数为指标进行二维四象限划分,将沿海地区114个地级行政单元划分为压力降低产业绿色化转型区、压力降低产业非绿色化转型区、压力加大产业绿色化转型区和压力加大产业非绿色化转型区四种类型区,并针对不同类型区产业发展和环境压力特点,提出对应的产业绿色转型和环境管制建议。

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, regional economic resilience has been attracting increasing attention across the world. When facing economic shocks, some regions suffer less and could manage to get through crisis in a short period, while some might be mired in economic stagnation, which mainly depends on the economic resilience of the country. Existing research usually classifies economic resilience into resistance and recovery resilience based on the analysis of a specific economic shock. It is simple and operable in empirical works though, which aims to unravel the economic resilience in a relatively short period and neglects the impacts of longstanding “slow burn” in the urban economy. Thus, this paper divided urban economic resilience into long-term and short-term economic resilience, and further analyzed the features of spatiotemporal distributions of industrial structures (including economic complexity and industrial variety) and urban economic resilience, and explored the impacts of industrial structures on urban economic resilience in different economic development stages with eastern coastal China as a study case. The conclusions are as follows. (1) The economic complexity in the study area is higher in the south and lower in the north, and the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are the most prominent areas. The distribution of industrial variety is more balanced, while the related variety of center cities is generally higher than that of surrounding cities. Distribution patterns of short-term economic resilience in different periods show great differences, and the long-term economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta is higher than that in other areas. (2) The elevation of economic complexity and related industrial variety could improve urban long-term economic resilience significantly, while the unrelated variety has no evident impacts, which verifies the importance of knowledge spillover and technology links in the promotion of urban long-term economic resilience. (3) Factors influencing short-term economic resilience vary in different periods. Cities with enormous financial industries were vulnerable to economic shocks in 2008. Comparatively, cities predominated by heavy industries had the lowest economic resilience in the structural adjustment period after 2011. (4) Factors influencing the resistance and recovery resilience on the same shock are different. A higher level of related variety could help cities resist the crisis in 2008, but have no distinct impacts on their recovery, while an elevated level of unrelated variety might harm the recovery from the crisis of 2008. Thus, extending the industrial value chain, establishing local industrial clusters, and upgrading the industrial level are possible ways to raise urban economic resilience.

经济韧性的强弱决定着城市在面对冲击时可以快速度过危机还是陷入长期经济发展停滞。本文将城市经济韧性区分为长期经济韧性和短期经济韧性,分析中国东部沿海地级及以上城市的经济韧性和产业结构的时空分异特征,探讨产业结构在不同时期对城市经济韧性的影响。研究发现,东部沿海地区城市不同时期的短期经济韧性及长期经济韧性存在明显的空间差异;长期经济韧性和短期经济韧性的影响因素不同,表征产业整体技术含量的经济复杂度和表征产业关联程度的相关多样化指数能显著提升城市长期经济韧性,短期经济韧性的影响因素则因时期不同而存在差别。延长产业价值链、构建地方产业集群、提升产业层次水平,有助于城市提高经济韧性。

High-quality development is the key measure to overcome the middle-income trap and join the advanced economy. With the deepening of reform and opening up, coastal areas have increasingly become the ballast of the economic growth, the center of national manufacturing, the frontier zone for building an innovative country, the pacesetter for constructing an open economy, and the demonstration window for green development. With typical characteristics of high-quality development, coastal areas will effectively drive the hinterland areas to the right track of high-quality development in order to form a strong support for the country's high-quality development, shaping a new pattern of coordinated regional development. According to the status quo and characteristics of high-quality development in coastal areas, this paper focuses on exploring outstanding problems of coastal areas as a whole and the northern, central and southern coastal areas in the process of high-quality development from five aspects of economic growth, industrial strength, innovation ability, opening up and green development. By analyzing realistic reasons for these problems, valuable references for the design of targeted high-quality development paths are designed. In the new era, coastal areas should grasp the historical opportunity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development, Yangtze river delta integration, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area construction, follow to improve industry core competitiveness, mobilize the vitality of innovation, build high-standard open economy, deepen ecological conservation by combining strategies of industrial upgrading, independent innovation, opening up and ecological civilization. By the method of working in concert to promote high-quality development in the northern, central and southern coastal areas, the leading role of coastal areas can be consolidated.

高质量发展是跨越中等收入陷阱、跻身发达经济体的关键举措。随着改革开放的深入,沿海地区正日益成为经济增长的压舱石、国家制造业中心、打造创新型国家的前沿地带、开放型经济建设的排头兵、绿色发展的示范窗口,具备高质量发展的典型特征,将有效带动内陆地区步入高质量发展的正轨,形成对整个国家高质量发展的有力支撑,塑造区域协调发展新格局。结合沿海地区高质量发展的现状与特征,本文从经济增长、产业实力、创新能力、对外开放、绿色发展五方面入手,重点探究沿海地区整体以及沿海北部、中部、南部地区在高质量发展进程中的突出问题,分析其背后的现实原因,为设计具有针对性的高质量发展路径提供价值参考。新时代背景下,沿海地区高质量发展需把握京津冀协同发展、长三角一体化、粤港澳大湾区建设的历史性机遇,产业升级战略、自主创新战略、对外开放战略、生态文明战略并济,遵循提升产业核心竞争力、激发创新活力、发展高水平开放型经济、深化生态文明建设等路径,协同推进沿海北部、中部、南部地区高质量发展,巩固沿海地区的引领地位。

In the era of China's New Normal, compared with other regions in China, the Northeast region has been in obvious economic downturn featured by its weak adaption, or in other words, weak regional economic resilience. However, there is a lack of study on how middle or micro economic sectors, particularly industries and enterprises could shape the resilience level of regional macro economy. This paper, therefore, tries to fill this gap by analyzing the multi-level characteristics of Shenyang's economic resilience since 1978, with regard to its economic growth, industrial restructuring, and enterprise spatial dynamics. We found that affected by China's development status, resilience level of Shenyang's economy shows a weak-strong-weak cycle, driven by the fluctuation of its secondary industry. There are obvious differences in the resilience level of old and new paths in Shenyang. In particular, due to its low competitiveness, the resilience level of mechanical industry in old paths has weakened and imposed greater impacts on secondary industry. Meanwhile, the survival rate of old and new enterprises indicates that the resilience level of old paths enterprises is stronger than that of the new paths ones under the context of national economy slowing down; except for enterprises in food industry, the resilience level of old enterprises is stronger than that of the new ones. Moreover, this research indicates that new enterprises of technology-intensive industry such as the old paths and the electronic industry in new paths show a spatial path dependence of city center, and spatial agglomeration has positive effects on enterprises' survival.

新常态背景下,东北地区与其他区域相比经济下行明显,适应能力较差,即区域经济韧性较弱。产业和企业是区域宏观经济的中微观载体,有助于揭示区域宏观经济韧性的中微观特征,却鲜少有研究。本文从宏观经济增量、中观产业增量及结构变化和微观企业空间动态,分析了1978年以来沈阳市经济韧性的特征。研究发现：① 在全国经济周期影响下,沈阳市经济韧性的变化呈现出“弱—强—弱”的周期性特征,主要是受第二产业韧性的波动变化影响。以支柱产业演替为代表的新老路径产业的韧性变化差异明显,其中老路径产业中机械产业韧性的“强—弱”变化对第二产业的韧性变化影响较大,其韧性减弱主要是由自身竞争力不足造成的。② 在全国经济“增速换挡”放缓的影响下,企业存活率的结果表明,老路径产业企业的韧性强于新路径产业企业的韧性;除食品产业外,其余产业老企业的韧性都强于新企业的韧性。另外初步发现,老路径产业和新路径产业中的电子等技术密集型制造业的新进入企业表现出对中心城区的“空间”路径依赖性,“空间集聚”对企业存活存在正向积极作用。

Regional resilience has become a trendy research branch. However, traditional Chinese research of resilience had been limited within the equilibrium-based epistemology. This article, based on a review of international literature, clarifies different definitions of economic resilience: engineering resilience, ecological resilience, and evolutionary resilience. The article rejects equilibrium-based epistemology of resilience and argues instead the evolutionary perspective. Then, it introduces the formation mechanism of economic resilience from macro and micro aspects; and introduces quantitative measurement of network analysis. This article concludes that resilience should be extended to the economic field and evolutionary-based perspective. Chinese researchers should notice connections between three research branches — namely evolutionary economic geography, innovation geography, and regional resilience. Future research should focus on case studies of urban and regional economies. They should also explore the existing open patent data source to establish the quantitative database of industry space.

区域韧性在中国已成为新兴研究热点,然而国内学者依然将韧性研究局限于均衡论的认识论范畴内。本文首先通过回顾国际最新研究动态从认识论层面辨析均衡论和演化论这两种韧性认知视角的本质区别,由此介绍西方经济韧性的演化论转向。然后从宏观和微观角度阐述演化论视角下区域韧性的形成机制,介绍相关定量测度方法;在此基础上形成系统的西方最新有关研究经济韧性的理论分析框架。未来研究应该在演化论视角基础上强化演化经济地理、创新地理(区域知识网络)和区域韧性这三个研究分支的联系,还应该加强产业历史演化过程的案例研究,并利用专利数据等开放数据源构建产业空间基础数据库。

The concept of regional economic resilience has unique theoretical value for analyzing the evolution of old industrial bases. The article divided the economic cycle of Liaoning old industrial base in 1990-2015 according to the economic growth rate, and constructed a counterfactual function to measure the economic resistance and recoverability of the urban and sub-industry in different stages, revealed the evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience, and reflected the economic revitalization process of Liaoning old industrial base. There were three main findings. First, there was a negative correlation between resistance and recoverability in the same economic cycle, the cities with low resistance were recovering well in the course of subsequent economic revitalization, and there was a 'creative destruction' process. Second, the regional economic resilience was an evolving process, the level of regional resistance to shock was influenced by the recoverability of the previous economic cycle, the shock and the process of recovery itself may lead to change in the region’s economic structure and functions, and these in turn will influence the region’s resistance to subsequent shocks, in other words, resilience both influenced the evolution of regional economies and itself evolved. Third, the economic revitalization process of the Liaoning old industrial base experienced a recession-recovery-decline process, and the process presents an inverted 'N' type, the level of resistance to disturbance was low in Liaoning old industrial base, the secondary industry was more vulnerable to shocks and the tertiary industry had relatively high resistance. Liaoning old industrial base had path dependence and institution locking phenomenon, and the structural-system problem was serious. Liaoning’s economic development relied excessively on traditional heavy-chemical industry, and the development of new strategic industries and modern service industry was slow. Aiming at the regular characteristics of the evolution process of the old industrial base, the paper put forward some suggestions for the economic revitalization of Liaoning old industrial base.

区域经济弹性概念对分析老工业基地演变过程有独特的理论价值。依据经济增速划分1990~2015年辽宁老工业基地经济周期,通过构建反事实函数测度不同阶段城市和分产业经济抵抗力和恢复力,揭示了区域经济弹性的演化特征,反映了辽宁老工业基地经济振兴过程,结果发现：同一经济周期中抵抗力和恢复力之间存在负相关关系,抵抗力低受冲击影响严重的城市在随后的经济振兴过程中经济恢复发展好,存在“创造性破坏”过程;区域经济弹性是一个不断演化的过程,区域对冲击的抵抗力水平受前一经济周期恢复力的影响,区域经济弹性在引起区域应对冲击能力的变化同时其自身也因此而发生改变;辽宁老工业基地的经济振兴经历了衰退-恢复-下滑的波动历程,呈现倒“N”型,其面对冲击扰动的抵抗力较低,第二产业更易受到冲击影响,第三产业抵抗力相对较高,老工业基地长期存在路径依赖、制度锁定现象,结构性体制性问题严重,突破能力弱,过度依赖传统重化工业,新兴产业发展缓慢,现代服务业发展严重滞后。针对老工业基地演变过程的规律特征,提出了辽宁老工业基地经济振兴的对策建议。

This paper analyzes the process of industrial diversification in the countries that were part of the European Union (EU-27) and those that were the target of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in the period 1995–2010 by means of world trade data derived from the BACI database (elaborated UN Comtrade data). Our results show that in both the EU-27 and the ENP countries, the evolution of the productive structure—as proxied by the export mix—is strongly path-dependent: countries tend to keep a comparative advantage in products that are strongly related to their current productive structure, and they also diversify in nearby products. However, this effect is much stronger for ENP countries, signalling their lower resources and capabilities to diversify in products that are not very related to their productive structure. We also show that the future export structures of countries are affected by their imports: both the EU-27 and ENP countries keep a comparative advantage in products that are strongly related to their imports, but only EU countries show a strong capability to diversify in new products from related import sectors. Our results also hold when controlling for geographical and institutional proximity.

Using export data of the China Customs Database from 2000 to 2016 and methods measuring path-dependent and path-creation new industries and technological complexity of industries, this study analyzed the regional industrial development paths of China. Four types of regional industrial development paths were identified based on technological relatedness and technological complexity dimensions. The results show that, first, Chinese exports have an increasing trend in spatial dispersion, moving from the core cities of the Pearl River Delta to the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province, and then to the peripheral areas of the Yangtze River Delta, the provincial capital cities of the central and western regions, and Jiangxi Province. Second, regional industrial diversification shows a high level of path dependence. From 2000 to 2016, path-dependent new industries accounted for about 70% of the total, while the figure for path-creation new industries was about 30%. Developed areas in coastal regions and capital cities in the central and western regions showed more path-creation characteristics. Third, in terms of path-dependent new industries, a half of them have a higher technological complexity than their parent incumbent industries. Regarding path-creation new industries, roughly two thirds of them have a higher technological complexity than their corresponding city average. Fourth, coastal regions have more path-creation new industries with a higher technological complexity, while the central and western regions have more path-dependent new industries with lower technological complexity. The results indicate that the Chinese government should take measures to promote the development of path-creation new industries with a higher technological complexity in the central and western regions.

论文基于技术关联性与技术复杂性划分出4类区域产业演化路径,利用2000—2016年中国海关进出口贸易数据库,集成不同类型新产业识别方法,在分析中国出口产业空间格局演变基础上重点研究了不同地区产业演化路径存在的差异及变化趋势。研究发现：① 中国出口产业经历了空间分散化过程。2000—2016年中国出口产业首先由粤闽地区向长三角核心城市和山东省等地转移,再向长三角外围城市、中西部省会城市和江西省等地转移。② 中国区域产业演化以路径依赖型为主,但发达地区有更强路径突破性。2000—2016年路径依赖型新产业占新产业总数的70%左右,路径突破型新产业占30%左右。中国东部沿海发达城市和中西部省会城市产业演化更具路径突破性,中西部普通地级市更具路径依赖性。③ 不论是路径依赖型产业分化还是路径突破型产业创生,新产业不必然具有更高技术复杂度。在路径依赖型新产业中,约一半的技术复杂度高于其在位母产业。在路径突破型新产业中,约2/3的技术复杂度高于城市平均水平。④ 不同地区产业演化路径存在较大差异,东部发达地区发展出更多路径突破型新产业,并且新产业技术复杂度高于城市平均水平;中西部普通地级市多充分利用现有知识与技术发展技术复杂度更低的新产业。从变化趋势来看,东部沿海地区路径突破且技术复杂度提高型新产业逐步增多,中西部普通地级市路径依赖且技术复杂度降低型新产业一直占有较高比重。因此,中国政府亟需制定政策推动中西部普通地级市产业发展的路径突破。

Regional development is a process in which industries develop, transform and upgrade constantly. Evolutionary economic geography understands the spatial evolution of firm, industry, cluster, network, city and region through the lens of firm entry, growth and exit, and argues that regional industrial evolution is path dependent and determined by inter-industrial technological relatedness. However, path dependence theory overemphasizes the endogenous factors in regional industrial development and ignores the critical role of external linkages and institutional factors, which would bring path creation for regional development. In China, there has been dramatic transformation in regional industrial structure since the economic reform. Empirical studies indicate that technological relatedness has indeed significantly determined regional industrial evolution, suggesting a path dependent process. Meanwhile, marketization, globalization and regional decentralization provide great opportunities to create new industries for regional development. In particular, external linkage, institutional factors and purposeful and strategic actions of local actors would stimulate path creation.

区域发展是区域产业不断演化、转型与升级的过程。近年来发展起来的演化经济地理学旨在通过分析企业进入、成长、衰退和退出等动态过程阐释企业、产业、集群、网络、城市和区域的空间演化,认为区域产业发展演化遵循路径依赖,并决定于产业技术关联。然而路径依赖式演化理论过于强调内生发展过程,忽视了外生因素和制度变革带来的路径创造机会。中国处于经济转型时期,区域产业结构变动剧烈。技术关联推动了区域产业演化,显示中国区域产业演化具有路径依赖性,同时市场化、全球化和分权化的经济转型过程为区域产业发展创造了新路径。外部联系、制度安排、行为主体的战略性行为等促进了路径创造。

The 2008 international financial crisis had a severe impact on urban economic development globally, which stimulated a new wave of discussion on the importance of urban economic transformation. Compared to the past, Chinese cities are facing tougher challenges in sustaining economic development through transformation because of the slowdown in economic growth nationally. Previous studies mainly focused on the strategies and countermeasures of urban economic transformation, and ignored how local economies develop, adapt, and transform over time. Moreover, there have been no comparative studies among cities in eastern, central and western China. Drawing on the theory of evolutionary resilience, this study examined three typical old industrial cities (Shenyang, Chongqing and Wuhan) to compare and contrast their transformations since 1978 using economic cycle modeling and shift-share methods. Results showed that: (1) economic growth in Chongqing and Wuhan has been above national average since the mid-1990s, whereas that of Shenyang has fluctuated periodically and shown a periodic oscillation phenomenon. (2) Since the 1990s, the shift of industrial structure in Shenyang has been volatile, and the increase in the relative share of the tertiary industry has been mainly the result of the deceleration of growth in the secondary industry. Chongqing and Wuhan, on the other hand, are more stable in industrial restructuring. (3) Since the end of the 1990s, the transformation of the manufacturing industry of Shenyang and Wuhan has been affected mainly by the upgrading of an old path, whilst the transformation of manufacturing industry of Chongqing has been the result of both old and new paths, which contributes to the higher growth rate. (4) Since the beginning of the 21st century, the evolution of the new path in Shenyang has featured a low-end trend, in contrast the evolution of the new path in Chongqing and Wuhan has shown a high-end trend. In conclusion, this paper illustrates the value of applying the resilience theory to the study of urban economic transition and enriches the practical value of the theory.

运用演化弹性理论（evolutionary resilience）采用经济周期模型法和偏离—份额法,从增长和结构两个方面,比较分析沈阳市、重庆市和武汉市3个典型老工业城市改革开放以来经济发展和转型过程。结果发现：① 重庆市和武汉市经济增长能力水平具有显著地以20世纪90年代中期为分界的阶段性特征;沈阳市经济发展过程呈现出适应循环周期特征,目前处于由维持向释放过渡的阶段。② 20世纪90年代以来,沈阳市3次产业结构转换方向具有较大的波动性,第三产业份额的增加主要是第二产业增长放慢的结果。重庆市和武汉市3次产业结构转换方向具有较强的稳定性。③ 20世纪90年代末以后,沈阳市和武汉市制造业结构演替受老路径增长能力变化影响较大,重庆市制造业结构演替是在新老路径都保持较高增长能力背景下稳步推进的。④ 21世纪初以来,沈阳市新路径的演化呈现出低端化特征,而重庆市和武汉市新路径的演化呈现出高端化特征。本文将弹性理论应用到城市经济转型研究,实证了弹性理论的实践应用价值。

It is of great significance to study the economic resilience characteristics of old industrial bases to promote the revitalization of these decayed old industrial areas and to enhance their capacity on resisting against domestic and global disruptions. This paper uses the concept of regional economic resilience to show the mechanisms underlying the economic development of Liaoning Province. First, it divides the economic growth rate of Liaoning Province from 1990-2015 into different economic cycles. Then, this paper characterizes the regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province by measuring its urban economic resistance and recovery feature in different periods. Meanwhile, the paper explores the mechanism underlying regional economic resilience by decomposing regional economic resilience into two aspects through the Shift-Share method: the industrial structure and the regional competitiveness. We obtained the following three main findings. First, regional economic resilience displays different characteristics which are dynamically changing across different periods. Compared with the whole nation, urban economy of Liaoning Province shows a lower resistance capacity against various disturbance, and it is more vulnerable to these disruptions. Second, both urban industrial structure and regional competitiveness can affect the capacity of regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province. We found that the regional competitiveness plays a more significant role, as the capacity of Liaoning’s regional economic resilience is constrained by its industrial structure and competitiveness. Third, “path dependence” has affected the development of service industry in the province for a long time, which is featured by the low level of industry structure and weak competitiveness. We also discovered that there exists a serious mismatch between the industrial structure level and the competitiveness in the secondary industry. Influenced by the phenomenon of institutional locking under the path dependence, the state-owned economy, which is often of poor management, accounts for a large proportion in the secondary industry. These all restrict the regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province. Aiming at exploring the characteristics and internal mechanism of regional economic resilience, the paper put forward some suggestions for the economic revitalization of Liaoning old industrial base.

研究老工业基地经济弹性特征对于增强其应对国内外扰动,促进落后的老工业基地全面振兴具有重要意义。本文采用区域经济弹性概念,在对1990—2015年辽宁老工业基地经济周期划分的基础上,测度各城市不同周期中经济抵抗力和恢复力表征区域经济弹性,借助shift-share分析法将区域经济弹性分解为产业结构分量和区域竞争力分量,揭示区域经济弹性的作用机制,结果发现：在不同时段内的区域经济弹性具有动态差异性特征,辽宁省对冲击扰动的抵抗力较低,容易遭受冲击影响;城市产业结构和区域竞争力均对区域经济弹性产生重要作用,且区域竞争力起主导作用,当前辽宁区域经济弹性受产业结构素质低和竞争力弱双重约束;服务业受老工业基地“路径依赖”影响,长期存在结构水平低和竞争力弱问题,第二产业结构素质和竞争力不匹配问题严重,路径依赖下的制度锁定现象仍旧存在,这都限制了辽宁的区域经济弹性水平。针对区域经济弹性特征和内部机制,提出了促进辽宁老工业基地经济振兴的对策建议。

Economic resilience is a hotspot in the field of economic geography, and regional industrial structure is considered to be the most important factor affecting economic resilience. At present, the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin has become a national strategy. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to scientifically evaluate the industrial toughness of the Yellow River Basin and to investigate the impact of industrial agglomeration on the industrial resilience. In this article, 90 cities in the Yellow River Basin are taken as research areas. The industrial resilience level of the region is measured from two levels of resistance and recoverability. An econometric model is constructed to examine the impact of different cluster types of industrial clusters, such as specialization, diversity, related diversity, and unrelated diversity, on the industrial resilience of the region. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The industrial resilience level of the Yellow River Basin is relatively high as a whole. Most cities have strong resistance to external shocks and strong resilience after external disturbances recedes. 2) There are significant spatial differences in industrial resilience in the Yellow River Basin. The areas with high recoverability level are mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shandong and some cities of Qinghai, while the resilience of Gansu and Qinghai is relatively low. The spatial distribution of resistance level is higher in the west and lower in the east. 3) Industrial development in a single industrial structure area is easier to recover from the impact of external disturbances. A high concentration of a certain industry will increase the risk of regional industry being subjected to external shocks. Diversified and related industrial structures are more conducive to improving the resistance of regional industry to adverse disturbances, and also to achieving faster regional recovery from the impact of the crisis. 4) In order to improve the industrial resilience of the Yellow River Basin, we should avoid over-specialization and concentration of an industry. While promoting the diversification of industries, we should also pay attention to improving the forward-backward linkages and linkages between industries.

经济韧性是经济地理学领域的研究热点，区域产业结构被认为是影响经济韧性的最重要因素。2019年以来，黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展已上升为国家战略，对黄河流域工业韧性进行系统评价并考察产业集聚对工业韧性的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。以黄河流域为研究区域，从抵抗力和恢复力2个层面刻画区域工业韧性，构建计量模型考察专业化、多样性、相关多样性、非相关多样性等不同产业集聚类型对工业韧性的影响，研究发现：① 黄河流域工业韧性水平整体较高，绝大多数城市对外部冲击有着较强的抵抗力，同时在外部扰动退去后有着较强的恢复力；② 黄河流域工业韧性的空间差异显著：恢复力水平较高的地区主要集中在内蒙古、山东，甘肃和青海的恢复力相对较低；抵抗力水平在空间上呈西高东低的分布特征；③ 产业结构单一地区的工业发展更容易从外部扰动的影响中恢复，对某一产业的高度集中会增大区域工业受到外部冲击的风险，多样且关联的产业结构更有利于提高区域工业应对不利扰动的抵抗力，也有利于区域从危机影响中实现更快的恢复；④ 提高黄河流域的工业韧性，要避免对某一个产业的过度专业化集中，在推动产业多样化发展的同时，要注意提高产业的前后向联系和关联水平。

Since the economic reforms and opening-up, the process of rural industrialization has led to the development of a large number of specialized towns which have significant implications for the Chinese economy. However, due to their labor-intensive, export-oriented and low-tech industrial structure, the economies of the specialized towns became fragile when the financial crisis in 2008 gave rise to a turbulent global market. Specialization of the towns, which used to generate significant effects of localization economies, shows its weakness in coping with the recession after the economic crisis. The sustainable development of the specialized towns in China emerges as an important issue requiring further scholarly enquiry. The newly developed economic resilience theory has provided a valuable and useful framework to explore the development path of the specialized towns, and the article has in turn served as an important empirical study for the theory at the town level. Economic resilience is associated with the capacity to withstand or recover from economic, social, and environmental shocks to its developmental growth path, or to transit to a new, sustainable one. One of the critical factors to shape economic resilience is the attribute of the industrial structure which can define a region’s ability to adjust and adapt to shocks. Despite an ongoing debate on the role played by specialization and variety, it is increasingly agreed that a greater economic diversity is related to a greater resilience of the economies. Based on the panel data of 32 specialized towns in Foshan City and a detailed case study of Xiqiao, a town specialized in textile, this article investigates the relationship between specialization, related/unrelated variety and economic resilience. The regression results suggest that specialization and related variety exert negative effects on economic resilience, whereas unrelated variety plays an active role. Our study supports the argument, which is well-documented in the existing literature, that specialization is more likely to be stuck in negative “lock-in” with adaptation. However, the effect of related variety is not as positive as expected. For low-level labor-intensive industries, their low technology level and weak cooperation among firms have seriously prevented efficient and effective knowledge exchange which is crucial for innovation and resilient ability. The Xiqiao case further indicates that effects of specialization and related variety on economic resilience are limited even the local government has actively intervened in promoting industrial upgrading through a series of approaches such as industrial park construction, labor training, subsidies and other preferential policies. Unrelated variety is conducive to foster the development of new industries, which can help to absorb unemployed labors caused by the shocks and maintain the resilience level. Thus, the specialized towns should consider an industrial structure of greater unrelated variety to boost necessary restructuring process and to engage in new growth paths.

以2008年和2013年佛山市30个专业镇的数据为基础，分析其在经济冲击抵抗期的经济韧性。分析结果显示，佛山市专业镇在经济危机之后整体经济韧性恢复缓慢，专业化和相关多样化产业的发展不再有助于经济韧性的提升，而非相关多样化则相反。传统专业化的集聚优势式微，以低水平劳动密集型产业为主的专业化易于导致经济的脆弱性；相关多样化因技术含量低和协作关系弱的限制也无法发挥作用，虽然地方政府采取积极干预的手段，但效果并不明显；非相关多样化的发展则有利于培育新的产业结构，弥补受危机影响而流失的劳动力，维持地区的经济韧性。与既往研究相比，研究结果同样支持高度专业化区域经济脆弱性更大、稳健性更低的主流观点，但是传统观点一是多侧重于某个视角，并未将专业化与多样化进行对比分析；二是在多样化研究中并不区分相关多样化和非相关多样化的对经济韧性作用。结论认为，在专业镇持续转型的背景下，发展相关多样化产业不利于提高其经济韧性，而非相关多样化产业则是积极有利的，应该予以大力鼓励。专业镇作为珠三角经济发展的成功经验，其传统发展模式正面临着严峻的挑战，应积极探索建立新的多样化发展模式。

The contemporary research of measuring regional economic resilience tends to focus on GDP index, while lacks of considering the other dimensions. Meanwhile, it overlooks the impacts from extra-regional linkage. Therefore, this study takes the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as an example to measure the economic resilience based on five selected economic indicators, namely, GDP, gross export value, industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and number of the unemployed. Drawing upon the Resis index proposed by Martin and Gardiner in 2019, this paper calculated the relative resilience of cities in GBA. The result showed that Shenzhen has the best resilience, Guangzhou and Foshan ranked second, followed by Dongguan and Zhuhai. In contrast, Hong Kong and Macao have the worst resilience. This paper then explains the causes of regional divergence through the perspective of relational economic geography. It is argued that strategic coupling plays an important role in shaping the intra-regional divergence of resilience in the GBA. The main conclusions are as follows: First, single dimension shows limitations in depicting regional economic resilience, while multi-dimensional indicators reveals a distinctive divergence among different types of regional economic resilience. Second, intra-regional divergence of economic resilience in the GBA has been developed, which is not relevant to location and the GDP scale, but is more related to industrial economic structure and modes of embeddedness in global production networks. Third, strategic coupling can explain the intra-regional divergence. Shenzhen has been benefited from absorptive coupling with the best resilience, while Guangzhou and Foshan cities are in the medium, and Hong Kong and Macao have the worst resilience due to captive coupling with global financial and hotel networks. This paper contributes the literature with a fresh empirical case of regional resilience in the GBA and also provides an alternative theoretical framework that involves extra-regional linkages into analysis. This paper calls for more attentions of qualitative research on regional economic resilience in future, in terms of the variety of resilience from economic to social dimensions and causal mechanism of how resilience is fostered and exerts power in resistance of the shock, particularly in relation to extra-regional linkage in the contemporary global economy.

当前区域经济韧性的测度研究的测度维度较为单一地聚焦在GDP之上,缺乏揭示韧性在其它经济指标上的表现;同时过于注重区域内因素,忽略了外向联系的影响。因此,本研究以粤港澳大湾区为例,选择5个经济指标对大湾区的经济韧性进行多维度测算,并借助关系经济地理学理论视角,对区域内部差异的形成原因给予解释。主要得到三个结论：第一,区域的经济韧性难以从单一维度来判定,多维度指标所揭示的经济韧性存在显著差异,其中GDP所表现出来的区域经济韧性较为保守,而就业指标所表现出来的经济韧性变动较大。第二,大湾区内部各城市的经济韧性存在显著差异,这些差异与区位和GDP规模无显著关系,而与其产业经济结构和嵌入全球生产网络方式有显著关系。第三,湾区城市在经济韧性表现的差异可以用战略耦合来进行初步解释,深圳因自主耦合而经济韧性表现最佳,佛山和广州次之,香港和澳门因以依附耦合的方式嵌入全球金融和酒店网络,因而经济韧性相对较差。本文为经济韧性研究提供了大湾区案例和新的分析视角,推动了关系经济地理学在经济韧性研究中的应用。本文建议未来要重视基于定性方法的经济韧性研究。

Technological relatedness as a key concept at present in evolutionary economic geography (EEG) is of great significance for the development of EEG and studies on economic growth path. This article explores the definition and measurement of technological relatedness and its micro-mechanism, and reviews the literature on how technological relatedness influences product evolution on different scales, including country, regional, and firm level product evolution. Even though the mechanisms differ slightly by scale, most studies confirm the existence of path dependence. In other words, product evolution path is dependent of technological relatedness. However, several studies find that some countries, regions, and firms do not follow their existing technological relatedness but break the path. They investigate the source of path breaking, finding that path breaking derives from some internal or external forces. China's special development path is not only a supplement for Western evolutionary economic geography theories but also an important opportunity for the development of the emerging Chinese evolutionary economic geography.

技术关联是现阶段演化经济地理学的重要概念,对演化经济地理学的发展和现实经济增长路径的探索具有重要意义。本文在演化经济地理学的背景下,探讨技术关联的概念和测度方法,从静态和动态2个视角探究技术关联影响产品演化的微观作用机制,并在国家、区域和企业等不同尺度上梳理了相关研究成果,绝大多数研究证明了产品演化路径显著依赖技术关联,即遵循路径依赖过程。近年来一些研究成果发现,有些区域通过向技术不相关产品进行演化从而实现了路径突破,并对其原因进行剖析,发现金融危机与扶持政策等外生力量和地方环境与制度等内生变量都会导致路径突破。中国发展路径的特殊性为西方演化经济地理学研究提供很好的案例,同时也为中国演化经济地理学的发展创造重要契机。

In this article, we describe a new command, xtbcfe, that performs the iterative bootstrap-based bias correction for the fixed-effects estimator in dynamic panels proposed by Everaert and Pozzi (2007, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 31: 1160–1184). We first simplify the core of their algorithm by using the invariance principle and subsequently extend it to allow for unbalanced and higher-order dynamic panels. We implement various bootstrap error resampling schemes to account for general heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous cross-sectional dependence. Inference can be performed using a bootstrapped variance–covariance matrix or percentile intervals. Monte Carlo simulations show that the simplification of the original algorithm results in a further bias reduction for very small T. The Monte Carlo results also support the bootstrap-based bias correction in higher-order dynamic panels and panels with cross-sectional dependence. We illustrate the command with an empirical example estimating a dynamic labor–demand function.