“一带一路”贸易网络演化与贸易门户国家识别
The trade network evolution and identification of gateway countries in the Belt and Road region
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收稿日期: 2022-11-14 修回日期: 2023-06-19
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Received: 2022-11-14 Revised: 2023-06-19
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作者简介 About authors
陈伟(1989-), 安徽淮南人, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110014048M), 研究方向为经济地理、城市与区域发展。E-mail:
全面认识“一带一路”贸易网络连通性、科学识别“一带一路”贸易合作的关键节点,对于推进“一带一路”高质量发展具有重要意义。从网络连通性视角出发,本文提出了“门户国家”的概念,综合集成Top网络、组团识别、门户系数等前沿网络分析方法,考察“一带一路”贸易网络时空格局演化,剖析贸易组团结构性变迁过程,识别贸易门户国家及其功能作用,以期为中国开展对外经贸合作、推进“一带一路”建设提供科学决策依据。研究发现:① “一带一路”沿线各国家(地区)贸易规模持续增长,逐步形成了联系日益紧密、结构日趋复杂、层级特征明显的贸易网络结构。② “一带一路”主干网络核心节点突出,极化效应显著,由“相对均衡”向“一极独大”态势演进,中国已成为贸易网络中的主导性力量。③ 在全球化和区域化交互作用的背景下,“一带一路”贸易网络形成了4~5个贸易组团,组团结构呈现出地理邻近性和动态演化性。④ 中国、俄罗斯、印度、土耳其、新加坡、马来西亚、波兰、匈牙利、罗马尼亚、埃及、以色列和黎巴嫩等贸易大国或占据特殊地理位置的枢纽国家成为“一带一路”沿线地区重要的门户国家。作为凝聚和支撑“一带一路”贸易体系的功能性节点和战略性枢纽,门户国家在提升贸易网络连通性方面发挥着至关重要的作用,也应成为中国与沿线地区开展经贸合作的优先战略选择。
关键词:
A comprehensive understanding of the connectivity of the Belt and Road trade network and the scientific identification of critical nodes in the Belt and Road trade cooperation are crucial for China to effectively promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). From the perspective of network connectivity, this paper proposes the concept of "gateway country", and integrates the frontier methods of network analysis, including Top network, community detection, and gateway coefficient, to examine the evolution of the spatiotemporal patterns of the Belt and Road trade network, analyses the structural changes of trade blocs and identifies trade gateway countries and their functional roles, intending to develop foreign trade and economic cooperation and promote the Belt and Road construction in China. The results show that: (1) The trade volumes of the BRI countries have continued to grow, gradually forming trade network patterns with increasingly close ties, complex structures and significant hierarchical features. (2) The core nodes of the BRI backbone network are prominent, and the polarisation effect is significant, evolving from "relative equilibrium" to "superpower dominant", with China becoming the leading force in the whole trade network. (3) Against the globalisation and regionalisation interaction background, the BRI trade network has formed four to five communities. The community structures exhibit geographical proximity and instability in the number of communities, their scale and membership composition in different years. (4) China, Russia, India, Turkiye, Singapore, Malaysia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Egypt, Israel, and Lebanon have become gateway countries along the Belt and Road, either as major trading countries or as hub countries with unique geographical locations. As functional nodes and strategic hubs that consolidate and maintain the Belt and Road trading system, the gateway countries play crucial roles in promoting the trade network connectivity and should be a priority strategic choice for China's economic and trade cooperation with the BRI countries.
Keywords:
本文引用格式
陈伟, 赵晞泉, 刘卫东, 叶尔肯·吾扎提.
CHEN Wei, ZHAO Xiquan, LIU Weidong, WUZHATI Yeerken.
1 引言
作为新时代中国全方位对外开放的重大战略举措和经济外交的顶层设计,“一带一路”已经成为当今世界深受欢迎的国际公共产品和国际合作平台。截至2023年1月,中国已经同151个国家(地区)和32个国际组织签署了200余份共建“一带一路”合作文件[1]。“一带一路”倡议经历了由中国倡议到国际共识、从理念到全面行动的巨大转变,成为世界范围内探索全球经济治理新模式、推动构建人类命运共同体的新平台[2]。“一带一路”倡议强调“共商、共建、共享”的原则,坚持和平、合作、发展、共赢的核心理念,以政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通为5个重点合作领域[3]。其中,贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的重要内容和核心环节,是“一带一路”倡议与世界贸易组织(WTO)等多边贸易机制实现有机联动、相互补充的重要接口,是促进中国与沿线地区开展区域合作、实现经济繁荣发展的重要手段,直接关系到“一带一路”建设的实际成效,并对新形势下开放、包容、自由和多元的国际贸易体系构建具有积极促进作用。因此全面认识“一带一路”贸易网络连通性、科学识别“一带一路”贸易合作的关键节点,成为高效推进“一带一路”建设、实现经济高质量发展的现实需要。
随着“一带一路”建设逐步推进,中国与沿线地区的经贸联系日趋紧密,“一带一路”经贸合作引起了国内外学术界的广泛关注。越来越多学者开始研究“一带一路”沿线区域的经贸合作问题,从不同视角对“一带一路”贸易合作的相关议题进行初步探索,尤其集中在贸易格局[4]、商品结构[5]、影响因素[6-7]、环境效应[8⇓-10]、地缘关系[11]和贸易效应[12-13]等方面。总体上,现有研究明显深化了对“一带一路”沿线区域总体贸易格局的基本认知,为中国与沿线地区开展经贸合作提供了科学参考。近年来,随着网络科学领域的进步,社会网络和复杂网络分析方法发展迅猛,网络分析凭借其独特视角成为各个学科开展交叉和集成研究的重要技术方法[14]。在此背景下,以国际贸易的空间流动和网络化发展趋向所构建的贸易网络体系获得了普遍关注[15⇓-17],有力深化了国际贸易网络研究。而“一带一路”贸易网络研究也逐渐升温,成为当前学术界研究的热门议题。
借鉴网络分析和数理统计方法,当前“一带一路”贸易网络研究主要围绕贸易格局、拓扑结构、空间组织、影响因素等方面开展[4,18⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓ -25]。学者们利用中心性[18]、凝聚子群[4]、组团识别[21-22]、核心—边缘模型[4]等网络分析方法,对比分析“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系[19-20],研究中国与沿线国家(地区)的贸易联系、贸易格局以及国家(地区)间的相对贸易地位[21],并挖掘影响贸易合作的因素[22⇓-24]。已有研究发现,“一带一路”沿线各国(地区)贸易联系紧密,具有小世界和无标度性质的等级特征[25],网络形态受到地理距离、历史文化、制度、贸易协定等多因素的综合影响[22]。除对“一带一路”贸易网络整体格局展开研究外,大量研究也从特定产业或产品类型入手,研究“一带一路”沿线区域的粮食[26-27]、能源[28-29]、废物与废料[30]、新能源汽车[31]等特殊商品的贸易网络结构特征及时空格局演化趋势,揭示不同主导产业和资源禀赋的国家(地区)在“一带一路”贸易网络中扮演的角色,探究“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)在全球特定商品类型贸易中的地位变化[26,29]。总体上,已有研究在一定程度上深化了当前“一带一路”贸易格局、商品结构、网络特征和影响因素等方面的认识,为“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)间开展经贸合作、提高沿线地区战略性资源的供给保障能力提供了有益参考。然而,由于贸易网络存在复杂的嵌套关系和交互机制,而现有研究尚未顾及核心结构和关键性节点在连通不同尺度贸易网络中的作用和角色,导致未能全面揭示“一带一路”贸易网络中具有战略性、枢纽性作用的特殊节点及其功能性。
自21世纪以来,全球化进程有力推动了国际贸易的发展[32],国际贸易不断重塑全球经济地理格局,从而形成了具有复杂性、动态性和交互性的世界贸易网络体系[16,33]。在该贸易体系中,一些重要的节点国家成为向上对接全球(全局)贸易网络、向下连接区域(局部)贸易组团的“门户枢纽”或者“中间通道”,这些“门户枢纽”承担着沟通和联系全局和局部贸易集团的特殊作用,是凝聚和支撑全球贸易网络体系的功能性节点和战略性枢纽。因此,这些具有“门户枢纽”性质的节点国家成为中国高效推动“一带一路”建设、与沿线地区开展经贸合作的优先战略选择,本文将其称之为“门户国家”(Gateway Country)。然而,由于当前贸易网络研究较少顾及不同尺度贸易网络的交互作用关系,一定程度上忽视了贸易门户国家在“一带一路”贸易网络连通性中扮演的角色和作用,导致当前研究未能有效识别“一带一路”贸易网络中的“门户国家”。因此,需要构建兼顾不同尺度网络连通性特征的分析框架,定量识别贸易网络中起“门户枢纽”作用的关键国家,从而为全面理解全球化和区域化交互作用背景下贸易门户国家在世界贸易体系中的特殊地位和作用提供潜在路径和方向指引。
因此,为弥补上述研究的不足,本文提出了“门户国家”的概念,从网络连通性视角出发,构建解析“一带一路”贸易网络组织形态的研究框架,综合集成Top网络、组团识别和门户系数等前沿网络分析方法,结合地理网络和拓扑网络可视化技术,揭示“一带一路”贸易网络的结构性特征与演化过程,科学识别“一带一路”贸易网络中的“门户国家”及其功能作用,提出开展“一带一路”经贸合作的重点国家(地区),为中国推进“一带一路”高质量发展提供科学决策依据。
2 研究区域、数据与方法
2.1 研究区域说明
2.2 数据处理过程
本文以商品贸易为研究对象,贸易数据主要来源于联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN Comtrade Database),包括进口国、出口国、贸易额、贸易流向、年份等信息。一般而言,相较于出口贸易,世界各国对进口贸易的监管更为严格,因此本文主要采用进口口径获取的商品贸易数据。同时,考虑到进出口贸易可能存在数据缺失,本文通过出口与进口数据间的转换进行替换,从而消除数据缺失问题对研究结果的潜在影响。通过数据清洗和转换,进一步整理出“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)间的贸易流量矩阵,最终构建了2000年以来“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)间贸易网络。为刻画长时序“一带一路”贸易网络演化过程,本文分别选取2000年、2010年和2021年3个年份作为研究截面。需要说明的是,东帝汶、黑山分别于2002年、2006年取得独立并正式成为联合国成员,因此,2000年“一带一路”空间范围仅为63个国家(地区),2006年以后为现在的65个国家(地区)。在该复杂网络中,本文用节点表示国家(地区),用连边表示贸易关系,用贸易额表示国家(地区)间贸易的权重,分别构建了有向加权网络和无向加权网络,以此表征“一带一路”国家(地区)间的贸易网络联系格局。
2.3 研究方法
2.3.1 Top网络
在真实世界网络中,由众多节点和连边构成的网络过于复杂,不利于展现出清晰的网络结构,因此通常通过提取网络的主干结构达到简化网络整体结构的目的。其中,Top网络是提取网络主干结构的常用方法之一[18]。在贸易网络研究中,Top网络通过保留每个国家联系最紧密的贸易伙伴国和相应的贸易联系,提取贸易网络主干结构,减少相对较弱的贸易联系对网络整体信息的遮罩[16,36]。例如,Top1网络包含所有国家各自贸易量最大的贸易联系,Top2网络包含所有国家各自贸易量前两位的贸易联系,以此类推。在网络特征方面,虽然Top网络并未显示全部的贸易联系,但其包含了贸易网络中的主要信息,在精简数据、便于分析的同时保留了网络的总体结构和关键特征。因此,本文采用Top网络分析方法提取2000年以来“一带一路”贸易网络主干结构,以揭示其演化特征。
2.3.2 组团识别
式中:Q代表每个组团的模块度得分;ec是组团c内所有节点之间的总权重;Kc是组团c内所有节点间边的权重之和;m是网络中边权重的总和;
一般来说,更高的模块度不仅表示更高质量的组团,也反映出更稳健的网络结构。然而,组团数量的增加并不一定会增加模块度,因为每个组团的贡献是不同的。相应地,将节点i移动到(划分到)组团c的模块度局部增益用
式中:
具体来说,Leiden算法是通过迭代运算收敛到一个分组,其中所有组团的所有子集都保证是局部最优分配的。假定
在该算法中,
2.3.3 门户系数
作为一种重要的拓扑属性,组团结构普遍存在于真实网络中。在组团结构的框架下,那些能够在组团间形成紧密连接的节点被称为枢纽节点[41],这些枢纽节点在支撑和提高网络沟通效率方面发挥了关键性作用[42]。为了识别具有上述特征的枢纽节点,各类网络分析方法相继被提出,其中,门户系数算法(Gateway Coefficient)凭借其高效简洁的特征得到了广泛认可,通过有效测度组团间连通性,定量化评价单一节点在整个网络的组团内与组团外连接中的参与程度[43]。根据所有节点在网络组团间以及自身组团内部连接中的参与程度,门户系数算法可实现对节点重要性的排序,从而识别不同节点在网络连通性中的角色和作用(图1)。因此,门户系数算法为精准识别网络结构中的门户节点提供了一个有效工具,具体被定义为:
式中:N是组团的数量;ki是i的节点度;
图1
进一步,为求和中每一项引入一个反映连接重要性的权重,该权重被定义为:
式中:
假设ViS表示组团S内节点i的邻居集合,ciS则被定义为ViS中节点中心性之和。假设cn表示组团n中节点中心性之和,cn可以由网络中所有N个组团计算得到。进一步采用最大值对ciS进行归一化处理,得到以下定义
度中心性衡量的是一个节点的相对重要性,而中介中心性是基于两个节点之间最短路径概念的一种更普遍的衡量方法。需要说明的是,任何一种中心性指标都可以被运用到门户系数的计算中,并且同时适应无向和有向网络。
3 结果分析
3.1 “一带一路”贸易网络格局演化
基于联合国商品贸易统计数据库,以沿线国家(地区)为节点,双边贸易流为连边,本文构建了2000年以来“一带一路”贸易网络,并对其进行空间可视化,结果如图2所示。其中,节点大小代表每个国家(地区)对沿线其他国家(地区)的贸易总量,连边粗细和颜色深浅表征的是国家(地区)间的贸易流量。2000年以来,“一带一路”沿线各国(地区)贸易规模不断壮大,呈现出明显的空间分异特征,逐步形成了联系日益紧密、结构日趋复杂、层级特征明显的贸易网络结构。其中,中国在“一带一路”贸易网络中处于核心地位,其于2001年加入WTO,此后国际贸易快速发展并深度融入世界贸易网络体系当中,极大改变了全球贸易格局和“一带一路”贸易网络结构。
图2
图2
2000年、2010年和2021年“一带一路”贸易网络格局演化
注:基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS(2016)1666号标准地图制作,底图边界无修改。
Fig. 2
Evolving patterns of the trade networks in the Belt and Road region in 2000, 2010 and 2021
“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)贸易规模持续扩张,总体呈现出先快速增长、后增速放缓的态势。2000—2010年间“一带一路”沿线区域贸易总量从0.36万亿美元增长到1.87万亿美元,年均增长率高达17.91%。随后沿线区域贸易规模继续扩大,2021年达到了3.41万亿美元,11年间共增长1.54万亿美元,“一带一路”区域贸易网络初具规模。但近年来受复杂国际形势等因素影响,2010年之后“一带一路”沿线地区贸易增速相对降低,年均增长率为5.61%。
从贸易规模上看,“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)贸易总量显示出空间不均衡分布态势,核心节点突出,具有明显的极化效应和等级特征。2000—2021年贸易总额超过1000亿美元的节点由0个增加至14个。第一大贸易国在沿线地区的贸易量占比不断攀升,从2000年的12.55%上升至2021年的25.49%;而第二大至第五大贸易国的贸易量占比持续下降,贸易格局由“多中心”演变为“一超多强”。2000年新加坡、中国、马来西亚和俄罗斯分别占据“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)贸易规模的前4位,贸易总额均在600亿美元以上。随后,新加坡的贸易规模排名逐年下降,2021年已跌至第6位;马来西亚和俄罗斯的排名相对稳定,始终居于前5位;而中国的贸易规模迅速扩大并上升至第一位,于2021年达到1.74万亿美元,是排名第2位国家的近5倍。印度和越南在“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)中贸易规模排名有所提升,于2021年分别达到第2位和第5位。
从贸易联系上看,“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)间双边贸易联系不断增强,贸易流量持续增大,网络层级结构特征明显。2000年“一带一路”沿线各国(地区)贸易额相对较小,贸易流量分布相对均衡,地缘距离相近的国家(地区)间贸易联系相对紧密。第一层级和第二层级的节点对均仅有1对,分别为新加坡—马来西亚和新加坡—中国,对应的贸易额为344.26亿美元和121.75亿美元。随着经济全球化进程加深以及各国开放程度的提高,“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)间的贸易流量实现了成倍增长。至2010年,中国和马来西亚之间的贸易额以711.10亿美元跃居首位,中国和俄罗斯之间的贸易额由67.19亿美元增长至648.75亿美元,增长近10倍。中国和印度、新加坡、泰国之间的贸易额,以及新加坡和马来西亚、印度和阿联酋之间的贸易额也都达到了500亿美元以上,第一层级的节点对增长至7对。到2021年贸易规模超过500亿美元的节点对已达到了13对,其中,中国—越南和中国—马来西亚的贸易规模超过了1500亿美元。自2010年以来,在第一层级网络中,中国参与的节点对的贸易规模占比由74.68%上升至90.23%,中国逐渐成为越来越多沿线国家(地区)最重要的贸易合作伙伴,是“一带一路”沿线贸易网络的绝对核心。
3.2 “一带一路”贸易网络主干结构演化
为更加清晰地刻画“一带一路”贸易网络结构,本文运用Top网络方法提取复杂网络的主要信息和关键特征,为后续开展“一带一路”贸易组团识别提供基础。表1描述了2000年、2010年和2021年3个年份Top网络的联系数量和贸易规模在原始网络中的占比。2000—2021年间,平均而言,Top1、Top2和Top3网络分别只包含了大约3%、7%和10%的连边数量,但却分别占据了45%、65%和75%左右的贸易总量。具体而言,以2021年为例,虽然Top3网络只占全部贸易联系中的10.66%,但却占据了全部贸易规模的77.99%,从而达到了用较少贸易联系来表征最主要的网络信息特征的目的。因此,为准确地刻画出贸易网络的总体格局和主要特征,本文以Top网络中连边占比大于10%、贸易额占比大于70%为标准,提取Top3网络来反映“一带一路”贸易网络的主干结构,并对其进行空间可视化(图3)。
表1 2000年、2010年和2021年“一带一路”沿线地区Top网络结构占比
Tab. 1
年份 | 联系数量占比(%) | 贸易规模占比(%) | 原始网络(%) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Top1 | Top2 | Top3 | Top1 | Top2 | Top3 | |||
2000 | 3.80 | 7.59 | 11.39 | 42.47 | 60.28 | 74.30 | 100 | |
2010 | 3.45 | 6.91 | 10.36 | 45.00 | 65.72 | 74.36 | 100 | |
2021 | 3.55 | 7.11 | 10.66 | 53.13 | 71.13 | 77.99 | 100 |
图3
图3
2000年、2010年和2021年“一带一路”贸易网络主干结构演化
Fig. 3
Evolution of Top network structures in the Belt and Road region in 2000, 2010 and 2021
“一带一路”贸易网络核心节点突出,极化效应明显,核心节点的辐射力和影响力随时间演化呈现出动态调整性,由“相对均衡”向“一极独大”态势演进,基本形成了以中国为绝对核心,以俄罗斯、印度、新加坡、土耳其等国家为重要枢纽的主干结构。在2000年主干网络中,只有7个国家的对外联系数量达到10以上,这些国家的贸易联系构成了贸易网络的主干结构。其中,中国、俄罗斯和新加坡的对外联系数量分别达到了31、27和22,位列前3位,成为贸易主干网络的核心。随后,新加坡在主干网络中的地位逐渐降低,2010年和2021年其对外联系数量分别为12和13,排名降至第5位。俄罗斯在主干网络中的地位较为稳定,虽然对外联系数量稍有降低,但始终位居第2位。而中国对外联系数量由2010年的49上升为2021年的60,日益成为越来越多沿线国家(地区)的前3位贸易伙伴,是主干网络的绝对核心。此外,印度和土耳其的贸易地位较为稳定,对外联系数目长期保持在10左右,是网络中的重要节点。从空间联系上看,受到贸易政策、经济互补性、地理邻近性和地缘关系等因素综合作用,“一带一路”贸易主干网络处于动态变化当中,其演进态势必将对贸易网络整体连通性产生重要影响。
3.3 “一带一路”贸易网络组团结构演化
图4
图4
2000年、2010年和2021年“一带一路”贸易网络组团结构演化
注:基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS(2016)1666号标准地图制作,底图边界无修改。
Fig. 4
Evolution of the trade communities in the Belt and Road region in 2000, 2010 and 2021
图5
图5
2000年、2010年和2021年“一带一路”贸易组团关系演进
注:图中“缺失”项指的是2000年空间范围中缺少的黑山和东帝汶两国。
Fig. 5
Changes of the trade community relationships in the Belt and Road region in 2000, 2010 and 2021
具体而言,2000年“一带一路”贸易网络被划分为4个贸易组团,分别是中国—东南亚—中东组团、南亚—中东组团、俄罗斯—中亚—中东欧组团和中东欧组团。中国—东南亚—中东组团由21个国家(地区)组成,是网络中最大的组团,形成了以中国、新加坡和马来西亚为核心节点,泰国、印度尼西亚、阿联酋和菲律宾等国家为重要节点的网络结构。其中,中国和东南亚各国地域相连、历史文化相通、资源禀赋各具优势,对于经济发展具有共同的目标和愿望,具有良好的合作基础。而这一时期,中国正处于工业化和基础设施建设的关键期,对于石油等化工原料具有较高的进口需求,因此,中国、东南亚各国和部分中东产油国共同构成了中国—东南亚—中东组团。俄罗斯—中亚—中东欧组团是该年份的第二大贸易组团,由9个中东欧、5个西亚、5个中亚国家(地区)共同组成。南亚—中东组团以印度和沙特阿拉伯为核心,由8个西北亚和5个南亚国家(地区)组成。中东欧组团共有10个成员国,以苏联各加盟共和国为主,各国地缘相近、历史相通,组团内部没有明确的核心。
相较于2000年,2010年“一带一路”贸易组团数量由4个增加至5个,各组团内部均有部分成员国发生了变动,地理距离的作用凸显。以中国为核心的组团成员国数量大幅减少,由21个减少至13个。自2005年新加坡和印度签署《全面经济合作协定》以来,两国的经贸合作日益密切,因此,新加坡从中国—东南亚组团转入了南亚—中东组团,并和印度成为了这一组团的两大核心。同时,西亚各国与印度等南亚国家(地区)在空间距离和文化习俗等方面更为相近,因此,阿联酋、伊朗、阿曼、卡塔尔等国家从以中国为核心的组团转入了南亚—中东组团。俄罗斯—中东欧组团成为该年份“一带一路”沿线地区成员数量最多的贸易组团,拥有18个成员国。该组团与中东欧组团发生了规模较大的成员国交换,并吸收了亚美尼亚、蒙古、阿富汗等原先属于其他组团的国家,而黎巴嫩、叙利亚、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和土耳其则脱离俄罗斯—中东欧组团构成了新的中东—中亚组团。新组团以土耳其为绝对核心,纳入了原先属于其他组团的相邻地域国家(地区)。
近年来,国际政治经济形势变化影响着“一带一路”沿线地区贸易合作,2021年沿线地区形成了新的贸易组团结构。随着新加坡、蒙古等国家重新转入,中国—东南亚组团不断壮大,成员数量增长至18个,成为沿线地区贸易规模最大、成员国数量最多的组团。其中,由于相邻的地域、相通的文化,以及贸易协定的影响,中国和大部分东南亚国家长期保持着紧密且稳定的贸易关系。中东—东欧组团以土耳其为核心,成员国数量由8个增长至13个,凸显出土耳其位于亚、非、欧三大洲交汇处的地缘优势及其对周边国家强烈的贸易吸引力。中东欧组团规模较为稳定,但成员构成发生了明显的变动。中东欧组团和俄罗斯主导组团之间的成员国频繁转换,说明这一区域国家间的贸易伙伴关系并不稳定,贸易竞合关系复杂多变。南亚—中东组团和俄罗斯—中亚—中东欧组团稍有缩小,成员国数量分别降至12个和11个。
冲积图(或桑基图)可视化技术常被用来刻画多维度分类数据的流动关系。为剖析“一带一路”贸易组团间关系演化,本文采用冲积图来反映不同年份各组团间的成员构成关系变迁。由图5可知,“一带一路”沿线地区贸易组团格局发生重构,组团数量、内部构成和组团关系均经历了不同程度的动态变化。2000年中国—东南亚—中东组团是成员国数量最多、贸易额最大的组团,俄罗斯—中亚—中东组团紧随其后,南亚—中东组团和中东欧组团的贸易额和成员数量分别位列第3位和第4位。2000—2010年期间,随着新加坡和中东各国的转移,中国—东南亚—中东组团发生了分裂,近半数成员国被南亚—中东组团所吸纳,使后者的贸易规模大幅提升,而中国—东南亚组团有所收缩。俄罗斯—中亚—中东组团和中东欧组团也发生了分化,这两个组团彼此交换成员国,使得各自的成员国数量和贸易规模并没有发生显著变化。2010年中东—中亚组团吸收了俄罗斯—中亚—中东组团约1/5的贸易额,并吸引了来自南亚—中东组团和中国—东南亚—中东组团的部分国家,成为“一带一路”贸易网络中的新组团。2010—2021年“一带一路”贸易组团格局再次发生重构。南亚—中东组团出现分裂,部分成员国被中国—东南亚组团和中东—东欧组团所吸收。近年来随着中国经济影响力的快速提升,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的吸引力大幅增加,中国—东南亚组团重新成为沿线地区规模最大的组团。而俄罗斯—中东欧组团贸易规模缩小,脱离该组团的国家大部分被中东欧组团所吸纳。以土耳其为核心的中东—中亚组团吸引了来自中东欧组团、南亚—中东组团和俄罗斯—中东欧组团的部分国家,贸易规模呈现不断扩大的趋势。
值得关注的是,2000年以来,中国所在贸易组团无论在贸易规模还是成员国数量方面始终位居前列,体现了中国作为世界第二大经济体的重要影响力和“一带一路”倡议发起国的强大号召力。受历史、文化、地理距离等因素的影响,中国和东南亚各国始终保持着较为密切的经贸往来,而中国—东盟自贸区的建成和新一轮产业转移的发生使得彼此间贸易合作更趋紧密,形成了以中国和东盟国家为主体的贸易组团,该组团主体结构较为稳定,并吸引着周边部分国家不断融入。中国—东南亚组团的稳定发展,一方面,体现了东南亚各国作为中国产业转移目的国和贸易伙伴国的重要性,反映出贸易协定对于促进经贸合作的重要作用;另一方面,也表明除东南亚以外的广大沿线地区仍是未来开展“一带一路”建设的潜在关注方向,需要加强中国与中国—东南亚组团以外重点国家的贸易联系,进一步向西扩大“一带一路”倡议的影响力和凝聚力。
总体上,2000年以来“一带一路”贸易组团经历了结构性变迁,各贸易组团势力此消彼长,以俄罗斯为核心的贸易组团呈现缩小态势,以土耳其为核心的贸易组团从无到有不断壮大,东南亚国家和中国之间的贸易合作日趋稳定和紧密。受地理距离、地缘政治、历史文化等因素叠加影响,各组团的贸易规模和成员构成随着国际形势、贸易政策和外交关系等处于动态演变中。
3.4 “一带一路”贸易门户国家演化
基于“一带一路”贸易组团关系,进一步运用门户系数算法测度2000年以来“一带一路”沿线各国在贸易网络中的参与程度和角色地位,提取每个组团中门户系数排行前3位的国家(地区),将其识别为“一带一路”沿线地区的贸易门户国家(表2)。作为向上对接“一带一路”整体贸易网络,向下连通区域贸易组团的枢纽节点,门户国家在维持贸易网络连通性、促进贸易联系高效运转方面发挥着至关重要的作用。
表2 2000年、2010年和2021年“一带一路”沿线地区贸易门户国家识别结果
Tab. 2
2000年 | 2010年 | 2021年 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
国家(地区) | 贸易组团(个) | 门户系数 | 国家(地区) | 贸易组团(个) | 门户系数 | 国家(地区) | 贸易组团(个) | 门户系数 | ||
印度 | 1 | 0.75 | 土耳其 | 5 | 0.91 | 俄罗斯 | 1 | 0.90 | ||
匈牙利 | 4 | 0.73 | 中国 | 4 | 0.89 | 中国 | 4 | 0.85 | ||
沙特阿拉伯 | 1 | 0.73 | 俄罗斯 | 1 | 0.82 | 土耳其 | 5 | 0.85 | ||
俄罗斯 | 2 | 0.73 | 以色列 | 5 | 0.80 | 印度 | 3 | 0.82 | ||
中国 | 3 | 0.73 | 匈牙利 | 2 | 0.79 | 波兰 | 1 | 0.82 | ||
埃及 | 1 | 0.72 | 印度 | 3 | 0.79 | 乌克兰 | 1 | 0.80 | ||
波兰 | 4 | 0.71 | 罗马尼亚 | 2 | 0.77 | 以色列 | 5 | 0.75 | ||
新加坡 | 3 | 0.70 | 黎巴嫩 | 5 | 0.77 | 黎巴嫩 | 5 | 0.75 | ||
土耳其 | 2 | 0.70 | 阿尔巴尼亚 | 2 | 0.76 | 埃及 | 3 | 0.74 | ||
黎巴嫩 | 2 | 0.69 | 新加坡 | 3 | 0.75 | 罗马尼亚 | 2 | 0.73 | ||
捷克 | 4 | 0.63 | 埃及 | 3 | 0.74 | 阿尔巴尼亚 | 2 | 0.72 | ||
马来西亚 | 3 | 0.61 | 马来西亚 | 4 | 0.73 | 阿联酋 | 3 | 0.70 | ||
泰国 | 4 | 0.73 | 匈牙利 | 2 | 0.65 | |||||
格鲁吉亚 | 1 | 0.71 | 孟加拉国 | 4 | 0.59 | |||||
波兰 | 1 | 0.71 | 马来西亚 | 4 | 0.55 |
研究表明,伴随贸易组团结构性演化,“一带一路”贸易门户国家处在动态演化中,中国、俄罗斯、印度、土耳其、新加坡、马来西亚、波兰、匈牙利、罗马尼亚、埃及、以色列和黎巴嫩等国家长期具有较高的门户系数,被认为是“一带一路”沿线地区的贸易门户国家。综合而言,“一带一路”沿线地区贸易门户国家大致可以划分为两种类型:① 具有较高贸易规模的核心国家,如中国、俄罗斯、印度和马来西亚等;② 占据特殊地理区位的枢纽国家,这类国家或是位于大区域间的交汇处,或是区域性交通枢纽,例如埃及和黎巴嫩等。在上述类型中,也有些国家兼具较高贸易额和特殊地理区位,例如土耳其和匈牙利。正是上述贸易门户国家起到“桥梁”或“粘合剂”作用,才能有效维系不同区域和不同贸易集团之间的互联互通和贸易流动,最终构成了当前“一带一路”整体贸易网络格局。
为了深入解析贸易门户国家在“一带一路”贸易网络中的地位和作用,本文进一步采用弧形连接图(Arc Diagram)对不同年份各组团内外贸易网络的拓扑结构进行细致刻画(图6)。在弧形连接图中,以沿线国家(地区)为节点、双边贸易联系为连边,以每个国家(地区)贸易总量为节点权重、国家(地区)间的双边贸易额为连边权重,构建无向加权拓扑网络。
图6
图6
2000年、2010年和2021年“一带一路”贸易网络拓扑结构演化
Fig. 6
Evolution of the topological structures in the Belt and Road trade network in 2000, 2010 and 2021
具体地,2000年“一带一路”沿线地区贸易门户国家大多是贸易额位居前列的核心国家或是具有特殊地理位置的国家(地区)。在南亚—中东组团中,印度、沙特阿拉伯和埃及的门户系数位居前3。其中,作为该年份门户系数最高的国家和南亚—中东组团的两大核心之一,印度不仅是组团内部各成员国的重要贸易伙伴,也与其他组团的门户国家之间存在紧密的贸易联系,与中国—东南亚—中东组团和俄罗斯—中亚—中东欧组团的门户国家之间的贸易总额分别占其与沿线国家(地区)贸易总额的27.64%和6.21%。埃及与沿线国家(地区)的贸易规模在南亚—中东贸易组团中仅位列第6,但其地处欧亚非三大洲交汇处,控制着连接地中海和大西洋的苏伊士运河这一交通要塞,地理位置特殊。俄罗斯、土耳其和黎巴嫩是俄罗斯—中亚—中东欧组团中的3个门户国家。其中,俄罗斯是该组团的主导国家,土耳其与沿线国家(地区)的贸易额在组团内排名第3位,拥有连接欧亚两洲的特殊地理位置。黎巴嫩的贸易额在俄罗斯—中亚—中东组团中仅位列第11位,在人口和经济体量等方面均不占优势,但其位于地中海东岸,是由地中海进入亚洲的通道和枢纽,且拥有较为开放和自由的贸易投资环境,因此成为该组团的贸易门户国家。中国、新加坡和马来西亚是中国—东南亚—中东组团的贸易门户国家。马来西亚的贸易联系相对单一,其最大的贸易伙伴国是新加坡,两者的双边贸易额占马来西亚在沿线地区贸易总额的52.03%。作为组团内的核心国家和第二大贸易国,中国除了与新加坡、马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚等国家贸易往来密切外,还与俄罗斯、印度等其他组团的门户国家具有较高的双边贸易额。而新加坡作为全球重要的中转枢纽港,在组团内外的转口贸易中发挥着重要作用。中东欧组团的贸易门户国家为匈牙利、波兰和捷克,这3国均为欧盟成员国。其中,匈牙利凭借着多元均衡的贸易关系、开放的贸易政策以及发达的物流体系成为中东欧组团中门户系数最高的国家。捷克的前两大贸易伙伴国为斯洛伐克和波兰,而波兰除了与组团内节点联系密切之外,还与俄罗斯拥有紧密的经贸合作。
2010年“一带一路”沿线地区出现5个贸易组团,相应的贸易门户国家也发生了一定变动。在南亚—中东贸易组团中,印度和埃及依旧是贸易门户国家。作为东南亚重要的国际贸易中转枢纽和全球开放程度最高的国家之一,新加坡由中国—东南亚组团转入南亚—中东组团,取代沙特阿拉伯成为该组团新的贸易门户国家。在中国—东南亚贸易组团中,中国、马来西亚和泰国的门户系数位居前3位。相较于2000年,2010年中国和马来西亚的门户系数大幅上升,分别由0.73和0.61上升至0.89和0.73。中国在“一带一路”贸易网络中的贸易额和门户系数分别位列第1和第2,是组团内马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚等8个成员国以及俄罗斯、印度、新加坡等其他组团门户国家在沿线地区的最大贸易伙伴国。马来西亚与新加坡之间频繁的贸易往来成为中国—东南亚组团与南亚—中东组团之间的一条贸易纽带。泰国在该年份的门户系数得到了较大提升,与中国、马来西亚和新加坡等周边国家之间拥有较高的双边贸易额,成为了新的门户国家。在俄罗斯—中东欧组团中,由于组团间成员国的转移,贸易门户国家转变为俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚和波兰。其中,波兰除与组团内的俄罗斯、捷克等国家联系紧密外,还与中国、匈牙利、土耳其等其他组团的门户国家往来密切。虽然格鲁吉亚与沿线国家(地区)的贸易额在俄罗斯—中东欧组团中仅位列第14位,但物流集疏的枢纽地位、自由开放的贸易政策以及低税率使其成为该组团的三大门户国家之一。随着成员结构剧烈变动,中东欧组团的门户国家变更为匈牙利、罗马尼亚和阿尔巴尼亚。罗马尼亚的对外贸易关系较为多元,与匈牙利、保加利亚等组团内国家以及中国、俄罗斯、土耳其等其他组团的国家均有较强的贸易联系。而2010年以俄罗斯为中心的贸易组团出现了分化,土耳其、黎巴嫩等中亚国家联合形成了新的中东—中亚组团,该组团以土耳其、黎巴嫩和以色列为门户国家。
到2021年,“一带一路”贸易门户国家同样经历了一些微调。在中国—东南亚贸易组团中,孟加拉国取代泰国成为新的门户国家。在贸易联系上,中国与印度是孟加拉国最重要的两个贸易伙伴,孟加拉国与这两国的贸易额分别占据其与沿线地区贸易总额的38.70%和24.42%。中国依然是该组团门户系数最高的国家,已成为马来西亚、越南、新加坡、泰国、印度、俄罗斯等邻近贸易大国的最主要贸易伙伴国之一,并与波兰、土耳其等中东欧、西亚贸易门户国家具有较为紧密的贸易联系。随着新加坡在贸易组团间的转移,阿联酋取代其成为南亚—中东组团新的贸易门户国家,印度、中国、沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、土耳其等国家是阿联酋的重要贸易伙伴。在俄罗斯—中亚—中东欧组团中,乌克兰的门户系数大幅提升,替代格鲁吉亚成为该组团的门户国家。乌克兰与沿线国家的贸易额始终在组团内位列前3位,但其2000年和2010年的对外贸易联系过于单一,与俄罗斯的双边贸易占其与沿线国家贸易总额的48.93%和42.75%,这导致其在2000年和2010年未能进入门户国家的行列。2014年克里米亚危机导致乌克兰和俄罗斯关系恶化;同年,乌克兰和欧盟签署联合协定,促进了乌克兰与欧盟国家的经贸合作,减少了对俄罗斯的贸易依赖。随着俄乌关系持续紧张,到2021年时,俄罗斯在乌克兰对外贸易中的地位已大幅下降,乌克兰的对外贸易联系变得多元化,与中国、波兰、土耳其等国家发展了良好的贸易合作关系,成为了连通组团内外的门户枢纽。2021年中东—东欧组团和中东欧组团的门户国家均未发生变化,与2010年保持一致。
4 结论与讨论
贸易畅通是“一带一路”倡议的核心目标和重点内容。科学识别贸易门户国家对于高效推进“一带一路”建设、深入融入世界贸易体系具有重要意义。基于联合国商品贸易统计数据库,本文提出了“贸易门户国家”概念及其分析框架,综合集成Top网络、组团识别和门户系数等网络科学领域前沿分析算法,结合地理网络和拓扑网络可视化分析技术,深入剖析“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)间贸易网络结构及其演化特征,科学识别贸易门户国家及其作用,揭示贸易门户国家在凝聚和支撑“一带一路”贸易网络体系中的战略地位。相较于以往研究,本文考虑到贸易网络本身具有的复杂性和交互性,侧重于从连通性视角揭示“一带一路”贸易网络中的关键性节点及其功能作用,识别出“一带一路”贸易门户国家及其演化,以期能为全面理解贸易门户国家在世界贸易体系中的地位和作用、高质量推进“一带一路”经贸合作提供科学参考。
研究发现:①“一带一路”沿线各国贸易规模不断壮大,逐步形成了联系日益紧密、结构日趋复杂、层级特征明显的贸易网络结构。沿线国家(地区)间贸易来往总体呈现出先快速增长、后增速放缓的态势,贸易规模分布显示出空间不均衡分布态势,极化效应和等级特征明显。②“一带一路”贸易网络形成了以中国为核心,以俄罗斯、印度、土耳其、新加坡为重要枢纽的主干结构。随时间演化,核心节点的辐射力和影响力呈现出动态调整性,由“相对均衡”向“一极独大”的态势演进,中国已成为贸易网络中的主导性力量。③ 在全球化和区域化进程深度融合的背景下,“一带一路”贸易网络形成了4~5个贸易组团,各组团呈现出显著的地理邻近性,地理距离在国际贸易体系中依然发挥重要作用。贸易组团经历了结构性变迁,各贸易组团势力此消彼长,不同年份的组团数量、组团规模和成员构成具有不稳定性。④ 受地理位置、市场经济、国际关系、营商环境和贸易政策等多因素的叠加影响,“一带一路”贸易门户国家处在动态演变中。中国、俄罗斯、印度、土耳其、新加坡、马来西亚、波兰、匈牙利、罗马尼亚、埃及、以色列和黎巴嫩等贸易大国或占据特殊地理位置的枢纽国家始终具有较高的门户系数,成为“一带一路”沿线地区的门户国家。
在全球化背景下,“一带一路”贸易网络并非独立存在的贸易体系,而是嵌套在全球贸易网络中的重要组成部分。当前,“一带一路”沿线地区已经形成了多维复杂、动态演化的贸易网络格局。门户国家在向上对接“一带一路”整体贸易网络、向下连通区域贸易组团方面发挥着至关重要的作用,是中国推动“一带一路”建设、开展经贸合作的战略支点和优先选择。然而,本文也存在着一些研究不足:① 由于共建“一带一路”国家(地区)长期处于动态变化中,参考已有研究基础,本文仅以古丝绸之路传统65个国家(地区)为重点区域开展贸易门户国家识别研究,在未来研究中将进一步覆盖更多的国家(地区),以贴合政策研究的时效性和全面性。② 本文仅选取商品贸易作为研究对象,未能涵盖服务贸易,随着国际服务贸易快速发展,服务贸易在全球贸易总额中的比重不断提升,未来也应引起更多关注。③ 中国于2001年加入WTO,此后国际贸易快速发展并迅速融入到世界贸易体系,但也存在着部分WTO框架以外的多边贸易形式,并影响着全球贸易格局。④ 当前全球政治经济不确定性明显增加,国际形势复杂多变,本文识别出的部分门户国家可能也处于非稳定状态,面临政治动荡、经济停滞甚至局部爆发战争等突发情况,需要密切关注国际形势的变化。因此,未来“一带一路”经贸合作需要特别考虑非传统安全问题,建立和完善风险预测与预警机制,动态监测沿线地区政治经济形势对经贸合作产生的潜在影响,避免因重大危机事件和突发情况造成损失,提高中国与“一带一路”沿线地区的贸易网络韧性。
在下一步研究中,可考虑加入营商环境、经济发展水平、地缘政治风险等指标,从多维度综合测度“一带一路”沿线地区的贸易门户国家;同时,可考虑聚焦到更细尺度的产品类别,识别某一产品门类的门户枢纽国家,为中国的对外贸易以及中资企业“走出去”提供科学指引。
参考文献
Progress in research on the Belt and Road Initiative
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201804003
[本文引用: 1]
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has changed from a China-based initiative to an international consensus, and is becoming a platform for a growing number of countries in the world to explore new international economic governance mechanisms. Such a great change along with impressive achievements of BRI development has attracted academic attention from almost all disciplines except basic sciences, giving rise to huge literature. This paper will first explore data from China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database to summarize the characteristics of literature on BRI in general, and then review progress in research on major BRI topics related to geography. The paper finds: (1) the number of Chinese papers on BRI increased by 21 times in three years, from 1012 in 2014 to 21216 in 2017; (2) these papers cover various BRI-related topics but most of them are macroscopic and very general studies of BRI with a taste of public voices, implying that quality papers with deep academic studies are demanded to support the BRI development; (3) more frequently discussed topics are China's outward foreign direct investment, facilities connection, "going out", globalization, global economic governance, community of shared destiny and internationalization of Renminbi; and (4) specific topics that are more deeply studied by geographers are connotation and discourse of BRI, geopolitical analysis of BRI, China-Europe Express Train, global strategic shipping pivot, model of China's outward foreign direct investment and overseas industrial parks, trade pattern and its impacts on economic growth of both China and its trade partners. Lastly, the paper suggests enhancing the discursive construction of BRI and studies of new BRI mechanisms as well as studies of countries involved in BRI, and promoting dialogues and collaborations between Chinese scholars and foreign scholars on BRI studies.
“一带一路”建设研究进展
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201804003
[本文引用: 1]
“一带一路”经历了从中国倡议到国际共识的巨大转变,正在成为世界上越来越多国家和政治领袖们探索全球经济治理新模式的平台。伴随这种转变以及“一带一路”建设所取得的成就,“一带一路”研究已经深入到除了基础科学领域外的几乎所有学科。本文根据中国知网(CNKI)数据分析了4年多来“一带一路”研究文献的特征,而后总结了与地理学密切相关的“一带一路”核心议题的研究进展。研究发现:① 自2014年以来“一带一路”研究发文量迅速上升,由2014年的1000多篇飙升到2017年的20000多篇;② 文献比较庞杂,以宏观性、战略性和一般性文献为主,舆论性很高,基于深入研究的高水平学术文献少,还不能很好地支撑“一带一路”建设;③ 对外直接投资、互联互通、“走出去”、全球化、全球治理、命运共同体、人民币国际化等得到的关注较多;④ 地理学在“一带一路”的战略内涵和理论构建、地缘政治经济分析、“中欧班列”、海上航运战略支点、海外投资模式、经贸格局及其经济影响、资源环境问题等方面研究较为深入。最后,本文呼吁加强“一带一路”的理论建构以及建设机制和国别研究,并积极开展中外学者之间“一带一路”研究对话以及合作研究。
Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes
DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.05.001
[本文引用: 2]
The Belt and Road Initiative—where the "Belt" stands for the Silk Road Economic Belt and the "Road" stands for the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road—is a call of China for new modes of regional economic cooperation under the trend of development of economic globalization. It targets at promoting orderly and free flow of economic factors, efficient allocation of resources, and deep integration of markets; enabling the countries along the Belt and Road to achieve economic policy coordination and carry out broader, deeper, and more efficient economic cooperation; and jointly building an open, inclusive, and balanced regional economic cooperation architecture. Thus the Belt and Road Initiative is an alternative road to further economic globalization, but contains ideas that are different from the past, that is, the spirit of the Silk Road—"peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and win-win." Based on such an understanding, this article first analyzes the general background of the Belt and Road Initiative against economic globalization and the changing configurations of the world, and then discusses the Initiative's spatial connotation by revealing its multi-scalar and trans-scalar characteristics. The article points out that the Belt and Road Initiative is a national strategy, rather than a regional strategy, to coordinate all-around opening of China to the world and promote further integration of the country into the global economy. Last, the article suggests several research themes in geography that are brought about by the Belt and Road Initiative, including geopolitical studies, geography of countries of the region to explore cooperation opportunities, foreign direct investment theories advanced by the Belt and Road Initiative, and optimization of transcontinental transportation.
“一带一路”倡议的科学内涵与科学问题
DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.05.001
[本文引用: 2]
“一带一路”指“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”,是中国为推动经济全球化深入发展而提出的国际区域经济合作新模式。其核心目标是促进经济要素有序自由流动、资源高效配置和市场深度融合,推动开展更大范围、更高水平、更深层次的区域合作,共同打造开放、包容、均衡、普惠的区域经济合作架构。“一带一路”框架包含了与以往经济全球化完全不同的理念,即“和平合作、开放包容、互学互鉴、互利共赢”,这正是丝绸之路文化内涵的体现。本文分析了“一带一路”战略与经济全球化及世界格局变化的关系;剖析了其空间内涵,认为“一带一路”具有多重空间内涵和跨尺度特征,是统筹中国全面对外开放的国家战略。最后,提出了推进“一带一路”建设为地理学提出的几个重要议题,包括地缘政治、国别地理、对外直接外资理论、交通运输优化组织等。
Trade network of China and countries along "Belt and Road Initiative" areas from 2001 to 2013
DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.11.004
[本文引用: 4]
Since the proposition of “Belt and Road Initiative”, researches on trade between China and countries along the Initiative area have increased. However, it is relatively rare to study trade network taking China and those countries as a whole. In this article, we utilize a social network analysis method to analyze the characteristics, trade groups as well as core-periphery structure and its evolution of this trade network. Then we analyze the structure of sub trade network of China and the Southeast Asian countries. The results show that density of the trade network established by China and countries along “Belt and Road Initiative” areas has increased, coupled with growing number of core countries. Meanwhile, China’s core degree in this trade network has increased with China being the most important core country in 2013. What’s more, China becomes the core country in the sub trade network of China and the Southeast Asian countries as well. Based on this analysis, we propose that during the process of promoting “Belt and Road Initiative” construction, China should rely on policy communication to reduce trade barriers and improve trade facilitation with countries along the Initiative area. In particular, it should be set as the priority to facilitate trading conditions with core countries in the Initiative area trade network for further enhancing China’s core position in this network. What’s more, China should make good use of the advantage of being the core position in the network, play an active role of being the area core country and promote the construction and development of “Belt and Road Initiative”.
2001—2013年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络分析
DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.11.004
[本文引用: 4]
采用社会网络的分析方法分析了“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络的基本特征以及贸易网络组团的结构变化,贸易网络的核心边缘及其演化情况,并在最后对中国与东南亚国家的子贸易网络进行了核心边缘分析。结果表明:“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络密度增强,中国在“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络中的核心度在逐渐提高,在2013年已经成为最核心的国家,且在中国与东南亚国家构成的子贸易网络中,中国也成为了最核心的国家。
Commodity structure of trade between China and countries in the Belt and Road Initiative area
DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.05.005
[本文引用: 1]
Economic cooperation is one of the priority areas in the "Belt and Road Initiative" proposed by China. It is important to examine the characteristics and patterns of development of trade between China and countries in the "Belt and Road Initiative" area, for achieving "unimpeded trade" and promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation. Under this background, this article reviews the changing trend of commodity structure of trade between China and countries in the "Belt and Road Initiative" area, and analyzes the commodity structure and pattern, based on the revealed comparative advantage index (RCA), sensitive industry identification method, and k-medium value clustering. The results show that the commodity structure of China's export to these countries has improved, while import has been more centralized with increasing share of energy. Second, the main products that China exports to these countries are mechanical equipment and textiles and garments, while the main products that China imports are mostly energy, textiles and garments, and mechanical equipment. Third, sensitive industries involved in China's exports include clothing and shoes, nonmetallic minerals, transportation equipment and so on, and those involved in China's imports are mainly ores, energy, and some primary processed products. Fourth, at the provincial level, eastern, central, and some western provinces that do not share border with other countries, are mainly connected to Southeast Asia, West Asia, and Middle East, while western and northern border provinces are mainly dependent on trade with neighboring countries in the area, and have more ties with Central Asia, South Asia, and Mongolia-Russia. Most eastern provinces, central provinces, and several fast-growing western provinces are mainly exporting mechanical equipment, while most northwestern provinces are mainly exporting clothing. On the other hand, energy is the main product imported to Qinghai, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and other eastern provinces, while ores and metal products are main imported to most western provinces.
中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易的商品格局
DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.05.005
[本文引用: 1]
经贸合作是“一带一路”建设的重点内容之一。研究中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的经贸合作演变特点及格局,对于促进沿线各国经济繁荣与区域经济合作,实现“贸易畅通”具有重要意义。本文在文献回顾的基础上,基于大量的数据分析,梳理了2001年以来中国与沿线国家贸易的商品结构演化历程,并采用显性比较优势指数、敏感性行业度量及k值聚类算法等,对中国与沿线国家贸易商品结构及格局进行了深入分析。研究结果显示:①中国对沿线国家的出口商品结构有所优化,进口商品结构日趋集中,能源及劳动密集型产品比重上升;②中国与沿线国家贸易的商品结构与各国出口优势行业基本一致;③中国与经济规模相对较小且产业结构较为单一的国家存在一些敏感性行业,出口方面涉及服装鞋帽、矿物制品及交通运输设备等,进口主要涉及能源、矿砂及一些资源初级加工品;④由于国内各省发展差距明显,中国出口商品的空间连续性较差。
Foreign trade and its influencing factors between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" route
DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003201
[本文引用: 1]
This study explores the trade pattern and influencing factors between China and countries along “ the Belt and Road” route using the gravity model of trade. With the implementation of China’s “the Belt and Road” initiative, the growing trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route gradually became the principal measured standard of the achievements of the “the Belt and Road” initiative and an essential sign of implementing the concept of “the Belt and Road” initiative. Based on the five types of connectivity of “the Belt and Road” initiative, including connectivity of policy, infrastructure, trade, finance, and people, we unravel the factors influencing the trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route and conduct a quantitative analysis of the factors. This study found that the total trade volume in the total import and export between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route is influenced by the level of economic development, the size of each country’s market, the political system, accessibility and convenience of trade, and China’s foreign direct investment and non-governmental exchange and cooperation. Among these, China’s foreign direct investment shows hysteresis in promoting trade development between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route. Because of each country’s different economic policies, trade policies, and international relations, the delay period between China’s foreign direct investment and trade development could differ. China’s foreign direct investment in countries along “the Belt and Road” route, however, has the most positive effect two years after the investment flowing into the host country. This study also found that China’s foreign direct investment has various effects on the total trade volume in the total import and export between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route. They can be divided into four types: strong driving, driving, general, and insufficient driving. The countries in the strong driving type and driving type are in Southeast Asia, western Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. This study enriches the domestic empirical research on the influencing factors of foreign trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route, helps to improve the efficiency of Chinese enterprises’ overseas investment, and contributes to promoting the communication on economics and trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route. This study also puts forward the view that China’s foreign direct investment shows hysteresis in promoting trade development. Future research could focus on the differences of the delay period in different industries between China’s foreign direct investment and the economic and trade development in the host country, exploring ways to shorten the delay period from the policy perspective and better promote the implementation of “the Belt and Road” initiative.
中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及其影响因素
DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003201
[本文引用: 1]
利用拓展贸易引力模型,借助Eviews等工具分析了影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的因素,以及中国对外直接投资的滞后性对双边贸易的影响。结果表明:1)中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模受到经济发展水平、市场规模、政治制度、贸易畅通性、便利性、中国对外直接投资、民间文化交流紧密度的影响;2)中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间的贸易规模具有正向作用,但其效应具有一定滞后性;3)中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与不同“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的引力大小不同,可分为投资带动力巨大型、投资带动型、投资一般型、投资带动力不足型4种类型,中国与东南亚、西亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲国家贸易规模受中国对外直接投资带动作用较强。
The role of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries
Trade openness and environment: A panel analysis for 88 selected BRI countries
DOI:10.1007/s11356-021-17037-w [本文引用: 1]
Mapping the exchange between embodied economic benefits and CO2 emissions among Belt and Road Initiative countries
Trade impacts of China's Belt and Road Initiative: From resource and environment perspectives
Spatial and temporal patterns of evolution of global trade networks during 1985-2015 and its enlightenment to China's geostrategy
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201803004
[本文引用: 1]
The paper, from the perspective of social network, explores the spatial patterns and evolutionary characteristics of the global trade network and focuses on the Chinese community ownership and their strategic implications by adopting social network indexes, including centrality, community classification and structure entropy. The results show that: (1) The structure of global trade network evolved towards complexity, specifically shifted from "one super state and more powerful countries" towards"multi-polarization". The collective rise of developing countries has weakened the monopoly position of traditional European and American countries in the network, leading to increasing complexity of the network structure. (2) Community evolution of the global trade network has experienced the dominant stage of the developed countries, the budding stage of the Asian region, the separated stage of the Asian Community and the fourth stages of "ripartite confrontation". During the evolution, China has gradually moved from being dominated to the center of the stage. (3) The diversification of trade market is a common characteristic of foreign trade countries. In the process of global market segmentation, China, the United States, and Germany gradually formed a relationship of "dislocation competition", and their core interests are concentrated around the surrounding areas. (4) The areas of Asia-Pacific Region, Middle East, Africa and Latin America have become the play field of China to compete other powers for local trade markets. Currently, the Asia-Pacific market is the preferred market for China's global trade, and China should extend the market to the Middle East, Africa and Latin America through "Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road", In this way, economic advantage can be transformed into global strategic influence. Meanwhile, direct conflicts and confrontations with the core interests of the United States should be avoided.
1985—2015年全球贸易网络格局的时空演化及对中国地缘战略的启示
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201803004
[本文引用: 1]
从社会网络视角,采用中心度、社团划分和结构熵等社会网络指标,探究全球贸易网络的空间格局及演化特征,重点分析中国在网络中的社团归属及其地缘战略启示。研究表明:随着时间推移,发展中国家的群体性崛起使得全球贸易网络结构呈现日益多元化的复杂格局;全球贸易网络的社团演化经历了发达国家主导、亚洲崛起的萌芽、亚洲社团的分离和“三足鼎立”四个阶段,中国从被支配的边缘地位逐步走向“舞台中央”;中、美、德三国在全球市场细分过程中形成一种“错位竞争”关系,亚太、中东、非洲和拉美地区成为大国之间争夺贸易市场的博弈区域。中国应首先立足于亚太地区,通过“一带一路”倡议延伸至中东、非洲和拉美地区,将经济优势转化为全球战略影响力。
Trade effects of the New Silk Road: A gravity analysis
Relational economic geography and trade network research
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.03.009
[本文引用: 1]
Trade network research originated from complex network science, and its study is related to the globalization research of economic geography. However, relational economic geography, engaging in globalization research and social network and network science, has hardly participated in trade network research. In response to this phenomenon, this article critically reviewed the origin, process, and achievements of the network paradigm of relational economic geography and examined the progress of trade network research, to rethink how relational economic geography should participate in the discussion of trade networks. This article presented the following findings: 1) The network paradigm of relational economic geography only borrows a small part of the concepts of social network analysis, and pays little attention to the overall structure of the network and its influence on collective behaviors. 2) Trade network research mainly discusses the structure and nature of trade networks through building topological network between countries, but relational economic geography based on the actor perspective (for example, enterprises and local agent) is difficult to use social network analysis methods. 3) Relational economic geography should attach importance to global cluster network, and rethink the economic geography foundation of the network concept and the research on the mutual coupling relationship of multi-dimensional networks. This article has implications for expanding the research fields of relational economic geography and for exploring the application of theories and new methods of economic geography.
关系经济地理学与贸易网络研究进展
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.03.009
[本文引用: 1]
贸易网络研究起源于复杂网络科学,其研究问题属于经济地理学全球化关注范畴。然而,关系经济地理作为经济地理全球化研究的中坚力量,同样借鉴社会网络和网络科学的思想,几乎没有参与到贸易网络的研究和对话中。论文针对这一现象,从介绍关系经济地理的网络范式入手,阐述关系经济的网络范式来源、过程与研究成果,并梳理现有贸易网络研究的进展,分析现阶段关系经济地理的网络思潮与贸易网络的区别,重新思考经济地理在关系视角下,应该以何种方式参与到贸易网络的讨论中。主要结论如下:① 关系经济地理的网络范式仅仅借用社会网络研究小部分概念,重视在整体网络空间中行动者的嵌入性,几乎不关注网络的整体结构及其对集体行为的影响;② 贸易网络研究主要探讨国家间贸易网络的结构与性质,而关系经济地理普遍从企业出发研究贸易流动背后的生产网络,其理论基础难以使用社会网络分析方法;③ 关系经济地理的贸易网络研究应该重视全球集群网络理论的运用,重新思考网络概念的经济地理学基础和多维网络相互耦合关系研究等问题。论文有助于推动关系经济地理学学者如何借助学科理论基础参与到贸易网络国际化研究中,对探讨现阶段经济地理理论应用和新方法实践具有重要的积极作用。
Growth characteristics of the global commodity trade network and its dynamic mechanism
DOI:10.18402/resci.2022.03.07
[本文引用: 1]
In the era of economic globalization, with the frequent commodity flows between countries and prominent characteristics of commodity trade networking, it is urgent to explore the interactions and evolution mechanism of global commodity trade based on the logic of the relationship network. Combining the social network analysis method and ArcGIS visualization tool and based on the data of commodity trade flow in various countries from 1996 to 2016, this study revealed the growth process, spatial patterns, and dynamic mechanism of the global commodity trade network. The results indicate that: (1) The network shows expansionary growth, and the “big triangle” of spatial structure with the interaction of three cores is becoming increasingly more mature. The advantages of the three commodity trade clusters also become clearer. The cluster led by China has expanded dramatically, while those led by the United States and Germany have shrunk. Division of labor in the network is clear among countries, and the network functions are significantly different and show different characteristics of change. (2) The growth of global commodity trade networks is driven by endogenous dynamics such as self-organization, national matching, national distribution, as well as external thrusts such as exogenous network embedding. Reciprocal relationships are the main structure of self-organization. National income levels, market opening convergence, and institutional environment heterogeneity are the key factors of matching. Economic advantages and industrial competitiveness are important foundations of distribution. The colonial history network, the international student exchange network, the language isomorphism network, and the cooperative publication network are important exogenous networks. The law of comparative advantage is still applicable to explain the growth of global commodity trade networks, especially for national matching and distribution.
全球商品贸易网络生长特征及动力机制
DOI:10.18402/resci.2022.03.07
[本文引用: 1]
经济全球化时代,国家间商品流动频繁,商品贸易网络化特征突出,亟需从关系网络的生长逻辑探究全球商品贸易的互动场景与演进机理。本文基于1996—2016年全球商品贸易流量数据,借助社会网络分析方法和ArcGIS可视化工具揭示了全球商品贸易网络的生长过程,运用指数随机图模型分析了全球商品贸易网络生长的动力机制。结果表明:①全球商品贸易网络呈扩张式生长,逐步形成“三核”互联主导的“大三角”空间结构,网络骨架的三大集群凸显。中国主导的集群大幅拓展,美国和德国主导的集群日益收缩。各国家(地区)在网络中的分工明确,网络功能差异显著并表现出不同变化特征。②全球商品贸易网络生长受自组织性、国家(地区)匹配性、国家(地区)集散性等内生动力和外生网络嵌入性等外在推力的共同驱动。其中,互惠关系是自组织性的主要结构,国家(地区)收入水平、市场开放趋同性和制度环境异质性是匹配性的关键因素,经济优势和产业竞争力是集散性的重要基础,殖民历史网络、留学生交流网络、语言同构网络、论文合作网络是重要的外生网络。传统的比较优势理论仍然适用于全球商品贸易网络生长机理的解释,尤其对国家(地区)匹配性和集散性的解释力更强。
The rise of China and the change of the global trade network during 1980-2018
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.10.014
[本文引用: 3]
With the development of the network analysis methods, studying global trade network by community detection and social network analysis (SNA) has become the frontiers in trade-related fields. However, most of the present research was of short temporal scale. Long-term studies are needed particularly given the growing uncertainties in today's world economy. Under the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative, analyzing the dynamics of the world politics and economy after the 1980s as well as the long-term shifts of the role of countries are of great significance for revealing the evolution of global trade network and thus contributing to the improvement of the initiative. Based on the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this article summarized three main stages in the global trade history after 1980 and illustrated and analyzed the change of the global trade network. The study found that: 1) The changes of world politics and economy and the improvement of technologies greatly influenced the global trade. The transformation from Fordism to Post-Fordism, the extension of neoliberalism, the development of digital technology, and the rise of developing countries represented by China have profoundly reshaped global trade. 2) The Top 1 network indicates that the change of global trade is relatively stable despite some shifts. In the European part of the global trade network, German bloc, French bloc, and Russian bloc are somewhat steady, while the United Kingdom bloc and Italian bloc have declined. In the Asia-Pacific part, the United States always played the leading role, the Australian bloc remained unchanged, but the Japanese bloc experienced a recession. 3) The rise of developing countries, such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, led to the great transformation of the world economy and trade network. These countries have recently become the regional trading centers. 4) With a high-speed development of the economy, China saw a dramatic rise in global trade and has become the center of the largest global trade bloc, exceeding the United States. Finally, this article briefly discussed the importance of long-term trade network research for the Belt and Road initiative.
中国崛起与世界贸易网络演化: 1980—2018年
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.10.014
[本文引用: 3]
随着网络分析方法的发展,利用社团检测和社交网络分析研究世界贸易网络成为当前重要的前沿问题。但目前国内外的研究多为短期尺度,中长期尺度研究亟需更新。当前世界经济发展不确定性要素增多,“一带一路”建设正进入深耕细作的阶段,分析20世纪80年代以来国际政治经济局势的转变以及发达国家与发展中国家的地位更替的长尺度变化,有利于揭示世界贸易网络的中长期演变趋势,并为中国“一带一路”建设提供历史启示。论文主要基于国际货币基金组织(IMF)的贸易方向统计数据库(DOTS),首先总结了1980—2018年世界贸易发展3大历史阶段的基本特征,然后研究了20世纪80年代以来的世界贸易网络中组团及国家地位的演变。研究发现:① 世界政治经济格局变化和技术进步对世界贸易网络影响深远。20世纪80年代以来资本主义的生产方式由福特制向后福特制的转变、新自由主义的推广、数字技术的大规模发展以及发展中国家的崛起对全球贸易空间格局产生了深远的影响,中国的崛起是全球贸易网络变化重要的力量。② 从Top1贸易网络上看,世界贸易格局呈现出“稳中有变”的演化趋势。世界贸易网络中,欧洲部分的德国、法国和俄罗斯组团相对稳定,而英国和意大利组团地位不断下降;美国主导了亚太部分,澳大利亚组团较为稳定,日本组团地位下降。③ 印度、巴西和南非等发展中国家的崛起,导致世界经济和贸易格局的重大变化,这些国家近年来成为了新兴的区域性贸易中心。④ 随着经济高速发展,中国在世界贸易中的地位迅速上升,成为了超过美国的世界贸易组团核心。最后,简要讨论了中长期尺度贸易网络研究对“一带一路”建设的历史启示。
Structural evolution of global high-tech trade system: Products, networks and influencing factors
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202012015
[本文引用: 1]
Since 2018, with the major adjustment of the global political and economic structure, Sino-US relations, which take trade friction as the representation and science and technology competition as the essence, have become increasingly tense. Based on this, this paper characterizes the evolution of global high-tech products trade structure from three aspects of product structure, network structure and influencing factors, and draws some conclusions. First of all, in terms of product structure, global high-tech trade is increasingly concentrated on electronic communication products based on telecommunications equipment. However, on the national scale, chemical products and armament products are not only the dependence products of most countries (regions) on imports, but also the superior export products of most countries (regions). Second, in terms of topology, the global high-tech product trade network continues to expand and is closely linked. It is a typical small-world network and develops a stable "core-edge" hierarchical structure. Third, in terms of spatial structure, the global trade pattern of high-tech products has changed from Europe-North America dominated to East Asia dominated, and also the largest trade country has changed from the United States to China. In addition, the spatial structure has changed from the "double arch" structure with the United States as the core to the "multi-arch" pattern with China as the core, but the United States still occupies a central position in the trade network of various high-tech products. Fourth, in terms of influencing factors, trade scale, economic proximity and cultural proximity have positive effects on the evolution of global high-tech products trade network, while geographical distance has an obvious negative effect. The four factors of political stability, openness, infrastructure and technological innovation only pass the significance test on the importing country (region), while the economic scale only passes the significance test on the exporting country (region). The technological gap is one of the driving forces for the evolution of the global high-tech product trade network.
全球高科技产品贸易结构演化及影响因素
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202012015
[本文引用: 1]
为清晰刻画全球高科技产品贸易体系变迁,本文利用世界银行以及联合国商品贸易数据库中2000—2017年高科技产品贸易数据,从产品结构、网络结构和影响因素3个方面探讨了全球高科技产品贸易结构的演化态势。研究发现:① 产品结构上,以电信设备为主的电子通讯产品主导全球高科技贸易发展,但在国家尺度上,化学产品和武器产品是大部分国家(地区)的进口依赖产品或出口优势产品;② 拓扑结构上,全球高科技产品贸易网络持续扩张,联系紧密,是一典型的“小世界”网络,并发育出稳定的“核心—边缘”式的等级层次结构;③ 空间结构上,全球高科技产品贸易格局呈现出由欧洲—北美主导向由东亚主导转变,贸易最大国也由美国转变为中国,网络空间结构也呈现出由以美国为核心的“双拱”格局向以中国为核心的“多拱”格局转变,但美国依然在多种高科技产品贸易网络中占据核心地位;④ 影响因素上,贸易规模、经济邻近性和文化邻近性对全球高科技产品贸易网络演化皆具有一定的正向作用,地理距离对全球高科技产品贸易网络的演化起到明显的负向作用。
The structure and evolution of trade relations between countries along the Belt and Road
DOI:10.1007/s11442-018-1522-9
[本文引用: 3]
<p>Trade facilitation is one of the five main agendas of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Social network analysis has helped understand the complexity of trade networks, but existing studies tend to overlook the fact that not all bilateral trade relations are equally important to a country. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper focuses on the top 2 trade relations networks to illuminate the structure and evolution of B&R trade relations, the relative positions of different countries, and changes in the composition of trade communities (e.g., the community leaders) and the changing patterns of trade between them. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. The overall international trade networks of B&R countries experienced a leadership change from Russia to China on one hand, some temporary communities experienced emergence, disappearance (e.g. the Kuwait- and Thailand-led communities) or reemergence (e.g. Poland-led community), and a community membership was generally consistent on the other hand. Since the future impacts of China’s BRI will depend on the degree of integration of the connected regions, some countries with stable and high centrality indices (e.g. Russia, Singapore, Serbia, Greece, Turkey, Iran, Poland, Hungary and Romania) could be selected by China as strategic regional partners, and countries with a strategically important geographical position but weak trade links (e.g. Myanmar, Pakistan, and Belarus) should be prioritized.</p>
Topological relationship between trade network in the Belt and Road Initiative area and global trade network
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.11.003
[本文引用: 2]
Unimpeded trade is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants' shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not only China's new action to drive its open and global development, but also a platform for increasingly more countries to explore free and inclusive trade. It is therefore important to examine the topological relationship between BRI trade network and global trade network, for promoting a universal, rule-based, open, nondiscriminatory, and equitable multilateral trading system. Based on a literature review, this article first analyzes community structure and trade network based on community detection algorithm, and then estimates the topological relationship of different trade communities. The findings of this article are as follows. First, we identified five trade communities in global trade network through community detection algorithm, in which China, USA, Russia, India-UAE, and Germany-the Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries are the cores of the five trade communities, respectively. Second, we identified three trade communities and two sub-communities in the BRI trade network, in which China is the core, Russia is the sub-core of the biggest trade community, and India, UAE, and Saudi Arabia are cores of the second trade community (South Asia-West Asia). Third, the topological analysis results indicate that in the global trade network, most BRI countries are attracted by the core nodes in the BRI area, such as China, Russia, India-UAE core nodes, and have strong trade contact with BRI countries. Most Central-East European countries are mainly attracted by Germany-the Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries with low penetration of BRI trade. Although some Southeast Asian countries are incorporated into the Asia-Australia-South Africa community with China as the core, they still need to strengthen trade linkages with BRI countries.
“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.11.003
[本文引用: 2]
共建“一带一路”倡议致力于建设开放型经济、确保自由包容性贸易。本文基于社区发现法、拓扑网络可视化等方法,对比分析“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系,明确其贸易在全球的地位,以期为“一带一路”自由包容性贸易体系建设提供科学支撑。研究发现:①全球贸易网络可以识别出5个组团,其核心节点分别是中国、美国、德—荷—法—英等欧洲发达国家、俄罗斯、印度—阿联酋。②“一带一路”沿线可以识别出3个主组团及2个次组团,其中,亚欧大组团以中国为核心、俄罗斯为次核心,南亚—西亚组团以印度、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯为核心。③在全球贸易网络中,大部分沿线国家仍被中国、俄罗斯、印度—阿联酋等核心节点所吸引,且与“一带一路”沿线的贸易联系较强;中东欧国家主要被德—荷—法—英等西欧国家核心节点所吸引,是“一带一路”低渗透国家;部分东南亚国家虽然被吸纳到以中国为核心的亚澳—南非组团,但与“一带一路”贸易联系还需加强。
The trade network of the Belt and Road Initiative and its topological relationship to the global trade network
DOI:10.1007/s11442-018-1523-8
[本文引用: 2]
Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants’ shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not only China's new action to drive its open and global development, but also a platform for an increasing number of countries to explore free and inclusive trade and promote a universal, rule-based, open, non-discriminatory, and equitable multilateral trade system. It is therefore important to examine the topological relationship between the BRI and global trade networks. More specifically, this article first analyzes the community structure of trade networks using a community detection algorithm, and then estimates the topological relationship between different trade communities. The findings of this article are as follows. First, this research identified three trade communities and two sub-communities in the BRI trade network, in which China is the core, Russia is the sub-core of the biggest trade community, and India, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are cores of the second trade community (South Asia-West Asia). Second, it identified five trade communities in the global trade network, centred on China, USA, Russia, India-United Arab Emirates, and Germany-Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries. Third, the topological analysis indicated that in the global trade network, most BRI countries are attracted by the core nodes of the BRI regions, such as the China, Russia and India-United Arab Emirates core nodes, and have strong trade contacts with BRI countries. Most Central-East European countries are mainly attracted by Germany-Netherlands-France-Britain and other developed European countries with a low penetration of BRI trade. Although some Southeast Asian countries are incorporated into the Asia-Australia-South Africa community with China as the core, they still need to strengthen trade linkages with BRI countries.
Spatial-temporal characteristics of foreign trade between China and countries along the Silk Road
我国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易特征研究
The trade network structure of "One Belt One Road" and its influence factors: A study based on analytic network process
“一带一路”贸易网络结构及其影响因素: 基于网络分析方法的研究
Understanding the role of humanistic factors in trade network evolution across the Belt and Road Initiative countries using the exponential random graph model
The evolution of the Belt and Road trade network and its determinant factors
DOI:10.1080/1540496X.2018.1513836 URL [本文引用: 2]
Network structure and proximity of the trade network in the Belt and Road region
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201811008
[本文引用: 2]
<p>The Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) is aimed at building a multi-faceted, multi-dimensional, and a compositely interconnected network. The B&R orderly accelerates the free flow of economic factors across the area and further increases the integrated efficiency of regional economic resources in the B&R region, which has significant influence on reshaping the political and economic landscape of Eurasia and optimizing the geopolitical environment around China. Based on the complex network theory and the geostatistical analysis, this research focuses on the topological features and the spatial structure of the B&R trade network and the proximity of its nodes, by building a database and applying the related techniques, such as ArcGIS, Pajek, and Stata. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade network in the B&R region is a small world and scale-free network. It keeps growing and follows the optimum selection rules, which means the new nodes preferably connect with the existing nodes of higher degree in the network. (2) Countries in the B&R trade network display the typical core-periphery hierarchical character. China plays a leading role in promoting industrial upgrading and economic development for these countries. (3) The structure of the B&R trade network shows a "mixed" structure, including both the hub-spoke and the fully-connected modes. The spatial heterogeneity among different kinds of centralities is significant. (4) The extended gravity model can better explain the B&R trade network. There exist the "Powers' Effect" and the "Geographical Proximity Effect" in the trade relationship. In the B&R trade network, scientific and language proximity are the most important forces. Institutional proximity shows a significantly negative effect, while cultural proximity shows a relatively weak effect. As a result, China should develop diverse policies that are based on different spatial levels, enhance the trade with the neighbouring countries first, and then to the distant ones and their surrounding areas; leverage the advantage of scientific and language proximity to promote the trade with other countries, and strengthen the cultural infiltration along the B&R region.</p>
“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络空间结构与邻近性
DOI:10.11821/dlyj201811008
[本文引用: 2]
“一带一路”倡议致力于构建全方位、多层次、复合型的互联互通网络,沿线国家之间相互贸易形成的网络有利于加速经济要素跨区域的自由流动,进一步提升“一带一路”区域经济资源的整合效率,对重塑欧亚大陆政经版图和优化中国地缘环境具有重大影响。采用复杂网络和地统计方法,借助GIS、Pajek、Ucinet和数据库等技术手段,对“一带一路”贸易网络的拓扑性质、空间结构以及节点的邻近性深入研究。主要结论有:① “一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络具有小世界和无标度性质,遵循增长性和择优选择;② 沿线国家贸易具有典型的“核心—边缘”等级性,中国对沿线国家产业升级和经济发展具有引领和带动作用;③ 贸易网络是“混合型”结构,呈现枢纽辐射式为主、全连通式并存的联系模式,不同中心性空间分布差异显著;④ 拓展引力模型对“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络具有较强的解释力,贸易关系存在大国效应和地理邻近效应,科研邻近和语言邻近是重要的推动力,制度邻近的影响呈显著负相关,文化邻近的正向作用相对较弱。因此,中国宜遵循“由近及远”的原则,重点强化对邻近国家的贸易渗透,再加强对沿线重点国家的贸易辐射,进而向重点国家的周边地区拓展,从不同空间层次制定差异化政策,发挥科研和语言邻近的推动作用,强化对沿线国家的文化渗透。
Characterizing the structural evolution of cereal trade networks in the Belt and Road regions: A network analysis approach
Cereal trade is essential for economic and commercial cooperation among countries along the “Belt and Road” (BRI). It helps ensure food security and contributes to building a community of interests and destinies for the BRI countries. Based on the UN Comtrade database, this study, using a network analysis approach, investigates the structural characteristics and spatiotemporal dynamics of cereal trade networks among the “Belt and Road” countries. Results show that: (1) The cereal trade among the BRI countries has formed well-connected and complex trade networks, and the “Belt and Road” initiative has significantly promoted cereal trade networks among the BRI countries. (2) The backbone structures of cereal trade networks along the BRI are in geographical proximity. India, Russia, and Ukraine are the most important trading partners and absolute core nodes in the trade networks, influencing the entire cereal trade networks. (3) The BRI cereal trade networks exhibit significant core-periphery structures, with considerable power asymmetries between the countries reflecting food supply and demand differences. In general, the BRI cereal trade networks have developed from relatively diversified to polarized. Supply chains in the cereal trade network are dominated by a few large countries and are fragile, with weak resilience and low resistance to risk. Therefore, governments should continue to strengthen regional cooperation, optimize cereal trade network structure, enhance their reserve capacity, and build a stronger system to guarantee food security and prevent risk. All these measures will support the food security of the “Belt and Road” countries.
Spatial pattern and evolution of cereal trade networks among the Belt and Road countries
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.10.018
[本文引用: 1]
Trade of agricultural commodities is an important part of the economic and trade cooperation between the Belt and Road countries, but the existing trade theories cannot fully explain the pattern and change of the cereal trade network between these countries. This study set up a four-dimensional analytical framework, combined social network analysis with spatial econometric analysis, and analyzed the spatial structure characteristics and mechanism of change of cereal trade network between the Belt and Road countries based on the United Nations Comtrade data from 1993 to 2016. The results show that: 1) The cereal trade network density of the Belt and Road countries is constantly increasing while the trade relations and trade intensity between these countries are constantly deepening. The position of the Belt and Road countries in the global grain trade network is on the rise and there is a clear phenomenon of trade club. 2) The network of trade relations has evolved from non-nuclear to multi-nuclear, and then to reshaping. 3) China's cereal trade with other Belt and Road countries has undergone an evolution from export-oriented to import-oriented. The Belt and Road initiative has enhanced China's position in the global grain trade network. 4) The evolution of the national cereal trade network of the Belt and Road countries is the product of resource endowment, economic environment, cultural identity, and political games. Compared with other trade networks, grain trade network has distinct characteristics and stronger stability. This study may provide some guidance for promoting cereal trade cooperation among the Belt and Road countries, optimizing trade structure, and ensuring food security.
“一带一路”国家粮食贸易网络空间格局及其演化机制
DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.10.018
[本文引用: 1]
农产品贸易是“一带一路”沿线国家间经贸合作的重要内容,但现有贸易理论无法很好地解释“一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的格局演化。该文构建了一个四维菱形分析框架,并将社会网络分析与空间计量分析相结合,基于1993—2016年联合国商品贸易数据,分析了“一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的空间结构特征及其演化机制。结果表明:① “一带一路”国家间的粮食贸易网络密度不断提高,贸易关系和贸易强度不断加深,在全球粮食贸易网络中的地位呈波动上升态势,并出现明显的贸易俱乐部现象;② 该粮食贸易网络呈现由无核到多核再到重塑的演化历程;③ 中国与其他“一带一路”国家间的粮食贸易经历了从出口导向到进口导向的演化历程,“一带一路”倡议提高了中国在全球粮食贸易网络中的地位;④ “一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的演化是受资源禀赋、经济环境、文化认同和政治博弈4个因素共同作用的结果,各因素在不同阶段所起的作用不同;粮食贸易较其他贸易而言特色鲜明,其稳定性更强。研究结果对促进“一带一路”国家农业贸易的健康繁荣,建设开放包容的经济环境具有指导意义。
A study of the petroleum trade network of countries along "The Belt and Road Initiative"
DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.026
[本文引用: 1]
Sustainable development is one common goal for the whole world, and regional cooperation is imperative to achieve that. Among the 17 sustainable development goals put forward by United Nations, the energy issue is one important part. It is necessary to better understand current energy consumption and trade pattern for energy consumption structure upgrade in the future. Hence, a study on petroleum trade along the "The Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) can provide practical guidance for regional cooperation and sustainable development. This research uses social network analysis to investigate structural characteristics and evolution pattern with petroleum trade data of countries along BRI. We find that the primary structure of trade network keeps unchanged. Cohesion and core-periphery analysis results indicate that China has constructed a tight relationship with other countries and more trade links are sustained by fewer nations respectively, trade is still correlated to geopolitics. Regional trade network has resilience. Quadratic Assignment Procedure results show that the economic scale has a significant positive impact on trade in this region, neighboring countries tend to establish close trade relations, and the degree of policy communication and facility connectivity between countries needs to be further strengthened. Cultural interoperability also shows significant features, and related follow-up cooperation needs to be further deepened. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd.
Natural gas trade network of countries and regions along the Belt and Road: Where to go in the future?
Evaluating waste and scrap trade risks in Belt and Road Initiative countries
Network patterns and influence factors of new energy vehicle trade along the countries of the Belt and Road
“一带一路”沿线国家新能源汽车贸易网络格局及其影响因素
The dynamics of world economy geography and the role of China in economic globalization
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202202004
[本文引用: 1]
From the perspective of economic geography, this paper studies the changing spatial pattern of world economy and China's role in different waves of economic globalization. Firstly, this study finds that the geographical pattern of world economy changes from "core-periphery" to "chain-reconfiguration", and to current "network-imbalance". Meanwhile the driving force of economic globalization shifts from "trade globalization" to "manufacturing globalization". At present, "multiple globalization" is involving into a new engine to driving the development of economic globalization. We then discuss that how China changes its role in economic globalization by changing modes of strategic coupling. We argue that the role transition of China breaks the traditional developing path which developed countries set for developing countries and theoretical spatial order put forward by classical industry gradient transfer, bringing new restructuring power and possibility for changing pattern of globalization. Finally, we discuss the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the development of economic globalization and the development trend of economic globalization in the post-pandemic era. Based on the analysis, we come up with some suggestions regarding to the potential development paths of China under the background of economic globalization.
经济全球化变革下的世界经济地理与中国角色
DOI:10.11821/dlxb202202004
[本文引用: 1]
经济全球化浪潮下的世界经济地理格局和中国角色演变一直以来都是学术界关注的热点问题,然而当前学界偏重从国家经济模式和国际贸易角度来解释这种格局的变化,而较为缺乏基于生产组织视角的经济地理解释。因此,本文从经济地理视角出发,解析经济全球化浪潮下世界经济地理格局变动与中国角色的演变。本文揭示了在三次全球化浪潮的冲击下,世界经济地理格局从“核心—边缘”到“链式重构”再到“网络不均衡”的演变过程,以及经济全球化的驱动力如何从“贸易全球化”转变为“生产全球化”,继而朝“多元全球化”演进。本文还论述了中国如何通过战略耦合模式的动态调整实现从经济全球化的参与者到变革者的转变。本文认为这种角色转变,改变了西方发达经济体对后发经济体的预设发展路径,以及经典的产业梯度转移理论所预测的空间秩序,为全球化格局的变动带来新的重构动力与可能。最后,本文结合此次新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情全球爆发带来的影响对未来经济全球化发展存在的可能路径进行分析,并从经济地理学视角为中国未来经济全球化发展道路选择提供了参考建议。
Visualizing the changing geographies of international trade, 2000-19
DOI:10.1080/21681376.2022.2043770 URL [本文引用: 1]
Structure of global copper-containing products trade network based on industrial chain perspective
DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.01.005
[本文引用: 1]
By comparing topology structure of various copper-containing product trade network, this article comprehensively describes the global flow of copper resources and copper trade relations among countries or regions, which is conducive to enhancing the understanding of different countries and regions’ comparative advantages in the global value chain and promoting the sustainable use of resources. We build 5 types of global copper-containing product trade networks using bilateral trade data of copper ore, blister, refined copper, copper semis and copper scrap in the year of 2017. The data are collected from UNCOMTRADE and ITC Trade map database. Since the data are too huge to analyse, we first identify the backbone network using Top $ N $ method to simplify data and keep as much information as possible at the same time. Top2, Top2, Top3, Top10, and Top4 networks have been identified to represent the integral network of copper ore, blister, refined copper, copper semis and copper scrap respectively. After that, we adopt network analysis methods such as community detection to study the topology structures of each type of global copper-containing product trade networks, and discuss their similarities and differences. The main conclusions are as follows. 1) Since 2001, the global trade quantities of copper-containing products have increased steadily, indicating that the demand for copper resources for world economic development has been increasing continuously. Among them, the trade quantities of copper ore are the largest, followed by refined copper, and blister is the smallest. The pattern of supply and demand of 5 copper-containing products trade is different. 2) Trade relations mainly occur between countries and regions with higher industrialization level or better industrial system in the copper resource field. And there are obvious differences in the topological structure of 5 copper-containing product trade networks. 3) According to the results of community detecting algorithm, these networks can be divided into a range of communities from 4 to 8 with the module degree between 0.216 and 0.482. Most countries and regions belong to different communities in five types of trade networks due to difference in resource endowments and industrialization development stages. 4) China has huge demand for copper resource. In the trade network of copper ore, blister, refined copper and copper scrap, countries related to China’s demand formed the largest community, indicating that it occupies an important position in the global copper trade, and reflecting problems of Chinese copper resources such as the low self-sufficiency rate and large dependence on other countries and regions. China should maintain good cooperative relations with the countries and regions within the same community to reduce the supply risk of copper resources.
基于产业链的全球铜贸易网络结构研究
DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.01.005
[本文引用: 1]
基于产业链视角研究铜贸易网络,构建了2017年铜矿石、粗铜、精炼铜、铜材和废杂铜5类含铜产品的全球贸易网络,对比产业链上各环节产品的贸易网络的拓扑结构,以全面刻画铜资源的全球流动以及国家(地区)之间的铜贸易关系。主要结论如下:① 2001年以来,全球含铜产品贸易重量稳定增长,其中铜矿石贸易重量最大,精炼铜次之。② 5类含铜产品贸易网络的拓扑结构存在明显差异,根据社区发现算法可划分为4~8个组团,模块度在0.216~0.482之间。由于资源禀赋和工业体系发展程度不同,大部分国家(地区)在5类贸易网络中分属于不同的组团。③ 中国对铜资源的需求巨大,围绕着中国的需求产生的贸易关系在铜矿石、粗铜、精炼铜、废杂铜4类贸易网络中都构成第一大组团,分别包含47、102、120、135个国家(地区),表明中国在全球铜贸易中占有重要地位,但也反映了中国铜资源自给率低、对外依存度大等问题。
Delineating the spatial boundaries of megaregions in China: A city network perspective
The spatial structures and organization patterns of China's city networks based on the highway passenger flows
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201702004
[本文引用: 1]
The multi-level perspective and multi-scalar city network have gradually become the critical pathways to understand spatial interactions and linkages. The road linkages represent distinguished characteristics of spatial dependence and distance decay, which is of great significance in depicting spatial relationships at regional scale. Based on the data of highway passenger flows between prefecture-level administrative units, this paper tries to identify the functional structures and regional impacts of China's city network, and further explores the spatial organization patterns of the existing functional regions, aiming to deepen the understanding of city network structure and provide new cognitive perspectives for the extant research. The empirical results are shown as follows: (1) It is immediately visible that the highway flows are extremely concentrated on the mega-regions of eastern coastal China and major economic zones in central and western China. And city networks based on highway flows demonstrate strong spatial dependence and hierarchical characteristics, which to a large extent has spatial coupling with the distributions of major mega-regions in China. It is a reflection of spatial relationships at regional scale and core-periphery structure. (2) A total of 19 communities that belong to important spatial configurations are identified through community detection algorithm, and we believe that they are urban economic regions within urban China. Their spatial metaphors can be concluded in three aspects. Firstly, many communities have the same boundaries with provincial level administrative units, which reveals that significant administrative region economy still exists in contemporary China. Secondly, trans-provincial linkages can be formed through spatial spillover effects of mega-regions within specific communities. Thirdly, cities located in the marginal areas of provinces and attracted by powerful center cities in neighboring provinces may become increasingly disconnected with their own provinces and be enrolled into communities of neighboring provinces, which make contribution to the formation of the trans-provincial core-periphery structures. (3) Each community, with its distinguished city network system, demonstrates strong spatial dependence and various spatial organization patterns. Regional patterns have emerged with the features of a multi-level, dynamic and networked system. (4) From the morphology perspective, the spatial pattern of regional city networks can be basically divided into monocentric structure, dual-nuclei structure, polycentric structure and low-level equilibration structure, with the monocentric structure as the major type.
基于公路客流的中国城市网络结构与空间组织模式
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201702004
[本文引用: 1]
多视角和多尺度城市网络逐渐成为认识空间关系的主要途径。公路流数据具有显著的空间依赖性和距离衰减特性,对于刻画区域尺度空间关系具有重要意义。基于全国地级行政单元间的公路客运流,论文尝试刻画中国城市网络功能结构和区域效应,并对其空间组织模式进行特征提取和规律挖掘,以期能够为城市网络研究提供新的方法支撑和认知视角。研究结果表明:① 基于公路流的城市网络空间形态表现出强烈的空间依赖性和层级特征,与中国主要城市群分布存在较大程度的空间耦合,更多体现的是区域尺度的空间关系及核心—外围组合关系;② 通过社区发现算法识别出19个城市经济区,其空间内涵主要包括行政区经济、巨型区域溢出效应和核心—边缘结构等;③ 不同地域系统内城市网络自成体系,表现出显著的空间依赖性和多元的空间组织模式,多层次、流动性和网络化的地域系统格局凸显;④ 从空间形态上看,区域城市网络空间结构大致可划分为单中心结构、双核心结构、多中心结构和低水平均势结构等区域关联形态,并以单中心发育模式为主。
Fast unfolding of communities in large networks
From Louvain to Leiden: Guaranteeing well-connected communities
Community detection is often used to understand the structure of large and complex networks. One of the most popular algorithms for uncovering community structure is the so-called Louvain algorithm. We show that this algorithm has a major defect that largely went unnoticed until now: the Louvain algorithm may yield arbitrarily badly connected communities. In the worst case, communities may even be disconnected, especially when running the algorithm iteratively. In our experimental analysis, we observe that up to 25% of the communities are badly connected and up to 16% are disconnected. To address this problem, we introduce the Leiden algorithm. We prove that the Leiden algorithm yields communities that are guaranteed to be connected. In addition, we prove that, when the Leiden algorithm is applied iteratively, it converges to a partition in which all subsets of all communities are locally optimally assigned. Furthermore, by relying on a fast local move approach, the Leiden algorithm runs faster than the Louvain algorithm. We demonstrate the performance of the Leiden algorithm for several benchmark and real-world networks. We find that the Leiden algorithm is faster than the Louvain algorithm and uncovers better partitions, in addition to providing explicit guarantees.
Identification and classification of hubs in brain networks
Brain regions in the mammalian cerebral cortex are linked by a complex network of fiber bundles. These inter-regional networks have previously been analyzed in terms of their node degree, structural motif, path length and clustering coefficient distributions. In this paper we focus on the identification and classification of hub regions, which are thought to play pivotal roles in the coordination of information flow. We identify hubs and characterize their network contributions by examining motif fingerprints and centrality indices for all regions within the cerebral cortices of both the cat and the macaque. Motif fingerprints capture the statistics of local connection patterns, while measures of centrality identify regions that lie on many of the shortest paths between parts of the network. Within both cat and macaque networks, we find that a combination of degree, motif participation, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality allows for reliable identification of hub regions, many of which have previously been functionally classified as polysensory or multimodal. We then classify hubs as either provincial (intra-cluster) hubs or connector (inter-cluster) hubs, and proceed to show that lesioning hubs of each type from the network produces opposite effects on the small-world index. Our study presents an approach to the identification and classification of putative hub regions in brain networks on the basis of multiple network attributes and charts potential links between the structural embedding of such regions and their functional roles.
Functional cartography of complex metabolic networks
DOI:10.1038/nature03288 [本文引用: 1]
The gateway coefficient: A novel metric for identifying critical connections in modular networks
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