Using data from the sixth population census,this paper explores the characteristics,formation mechanisms,and solution paths of peri-urbanization in China at province and prefecture level． Results show that more than 80% of the prefecture-level cities are subject to some degree of peri-urbanization．The higher the urbanization rate of permanent residents,the higher the urbanization rate of household registered population． Peri-urbanization increases from western to eastern regions,with the eastern region being of high-moderate peri-urbanization,the central region of moderate-low urbanization,and the western region of low-moderate urbanization,respectively． There is an increasing trend of peri-urbanization with the increase of the permanent residents.Among the capital cities,Shanghai has the highest peri-urbanization level,followed by Guangzhou,and Urumqi,and among the non-capital cities,Shengzhen has the highest level of peri-urbanization,followed by Dongguan.The city with lowest peri-urbanization level is Yichun．Regional development gap,household registration system,and distribution of interests are the major factors influencing peri-urbanization in China．Policies addressing peri-urbanization should be directed at promoting regional integration and development of urban and rural areas,adjusting interest allocation pattern,and deepening reforms of household registration system．

基于全国第六次普查数据研究我国31个省(市、区)和288个地级以上城市半城镇化特点、形成机制以及解决路径。研究表明:全国80%以上的地级以上城市存在不同程度的半城镇化现象,且高常住人口城镇化往往伴随高半城镇化和低户籍人口城镇化。半城镇化呈现由西向东逐渐加重的趋势,华南地区半城镇化程度最高,东北、西南最低。东部地区以高、中度半城镇化为主,中部地区以中、低半城镇化为主,西部地区以低、中度半城镇化为主。随着城镇常住人口的增加,半城镇化程度由轻向重转变。省会以上城市中,半城镇化程度最高的城市是上海,其次是广州、乌鲁木齐。非省会城市中,半城镇化程度最高的是深圳,其次是东莞。半城镇化最低、户籍人口城镇化最高的地级市为伊春。

Based on the research on population spatial diffusion and its variation in migration, this study proposes that a new path of urbanization in central area of China is emerging, namely returning-migrant-induced urbanization (RMIU). Through conducting an intensive questionnaire survey and a lot of interviews in several cities in Middle China, as well as comparing with urbanization pathways in the coastal China, we conclude 3 new characteristics of the RMIU. First, the county-level central cities have become the main attractive places for hosting returning migrants, where is the first choice for a large share of returning migrants. This is due to abundant job opportunities, good public service, better education resources, good living condition and lower living expenses. Unlike their elder generation returning from coastal areas who become peasants again, the new returning generation is still working in non-agricultural fields, both in manufacturing industries and tertiary sector. Second, many “pendular populations” are existing in counties and county-level cities, which means people working in cities, but living in countryside. Therefore, this is a centripetal urbanization featured as the strong county proper, which is much different from urbanization process in coastal China, such as exo-urbanization, urbanization from below, peri-urbanization, in situ urbanization. Third, the prefectural cities are also an important option for returning migrants for living and working, especially for those people with better economic condition. RMIU is a new phenomenon recently occurring in middle China, which is totally different from urbanization pathways in eastern China. Regarding the driving forces behind the process of RMIU, the shift of manufacturing industries from developed coastal areas to middle China is a main contributor, which creating a lot of job opportunities for returning people. With such shift, many floating persons who once worked in coastal cities are returning their hometown or nearby cities for living and working. The kinship social network facilities such trend of migrant return, as they must solve their problems of kids’ education and the eldly care. So, economic factors are not the very important force underlying the current wave of returning migrants. In addition, some of them start up business in their hometowns, with market experiences and skills getting from the coastal China. This induces the endogenous development in Middle China. Finally, some policy implementations are highlighted, including rural revitalization, urbanization policy and urban transition.

在对流动人口流向变化研究的基础上,通过对中部地区的实地走访和问卷调研,兼与沿海地区对比分析,提出中部地区城镇化正在开启新路径,即回流城镇化。研究总结了回流城镇化的新特点,包括县级中心城市成为回流城镇化主要载体,城乡之间出现了摆动的“两栖”人口,地级市中心城区也是回流城镇化的重要选项。回流城镇化主要由沿海经济发达地区的产业转移、亲情社会网络、回流创业内生动力的发展等驱动。最后,论文在理论层面总结了回流城镇化对中国城镇化路径研究的启示。

The form of population migration and mobility constitutes a key element of the characteristics of migration. Since China has entered the late-intermediate stage of urbanization, it is very important to accurately identify and understand the transformation in the form of population migration and mobility. While a growing body of literature has been generated and significant progress has been made on China's population migration and mobility and its determinants, an important inadequacy of relevant research are often focused on rural to urban population migration and mobility, neglecting the multi-dimensional forms of population migration and mobility. Based on relevant theories and international experience relating to the transformation in the forms of population migration and mobility, and using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), Report on Monitoring and Investigation of Migrant Workers in China, and relevant statistics, this study examined the processes of the transformation in the forms of the population migration and mobility in China and their characteristics at the present stage and the issues and challenges arising therefrom. The results show that there have been significant changes in the forms of population migration and mobility in China, and such changes mainly manifest in the following aspects: First, there has been a steady increase in return migration and short-distance migration; Second, inter-urban migration has also significantly increased and become increasingly common; Third, the urbanization process of the floating population based on the rural-urban transfer of their hukou has started to accelerate, and their rural-urban multiple livelihoods has increasingly shifted towards the urban end; Fourth, there has been a developing trend of urbanization driven by housing purchases in both migrants' places of origin and destination. The study also identified issues and challenges in the process of transformation in the forms of population migration and mobility, including: First, there is a lack of sustainability in in situ urbanization promoted by return migration; Second, urban-urban migration are highly concentrated in a few provinces of the eastern region; Third, there are still many obstacles for the urbanization of rural migrants based on their hukou transfer. Finally, the article puts forward some policy recommendations from the perspectives of the construction of multi-level spatial system of urbanization of the floating population, the transformation of urban governance mode, and the promotion of the capacity for sustainable development of small towns in central and western regions.

人口迁移流动形式是构成人口迁移流动特征的一个关键要素。在中国进入人口城镇化中后期后,准确判断和把握人口迁移流动形式的转变是一项十分重要的工作。论文基于人口迁移流动形式转变的相关理论与国际经验,考察现阶段中国人口迁移流动形式转变的进程和特点及由此产生的问题与挑战。研究发现,中国人口迁移流动形式已发生转变,并突出表现为人口回流现象不断增多、省际和省内人口迁移流动此消彼长的趋势日益明显;城—城流动显著增加,人口的城-城间流动将渐成常态化;流动人口户籍城镇化进程开始加快,其城乡两栖生计的重心向城镇转移;住房驱动下的流动人口就地、异地城镇化渐成趋势等。同时,人口迁移流动形式转变过程中面临着人口回流推动的就近就地城镇化发展可持续性不足;城—城流动向东部少数省市聚集的态势明显;以户籍城镇化主导的农业流动人口市民化面临多重障碍等问题与挑战。最后,从流动人口城镇化的空间载体构建、城市治理方式转变、中西部小城镇自我可持续发展能力提升等方面提出相应的建议。

China has witnessed unprecedented urbanization over the past decades. The rapid expansion of urban population has been dominated by the floating population from rural areas, of which the spatiotemporal patterns, driving forces, and multidimensional effects have been scrutinized and evaluated by voluminous empirical studies. However, the urban and economic development mode has been reshaped by the globalization and marketization processes and the socioeconomic space has been restructured as a consequence. How has the spatial pattern of floating population evolved against these backdrops? How has the evolution been driven by the interaction of state and market forces? What have been the contribution of population mobility to the urbanization of origin and destination regions and the evolution of China's urban system? The latest national censuses conducted in 2000 and 2010 offer the opportunity to systematically answer these questions. Analysis based on the county-level data comes to conclusions as follows. (1) The spatial pattern of floating population remained stable over the first decade of the 21st century. Three coastal mega-city regions, namely the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, were major concentration areas. As the emergence and rapid development of other coastal mega-city regions, the coastal concentration area of floating population tended to geographically united as a whole, whereas the spatial distribution within each region variegated significantly. (2) Floating population gradually moved into provincial capitals and other big cities in interior regions and its distribution center of gravity moved northward around 110 km during the study period. (3) Compared with extensively investigated inter-provincial migrants, intra-provincial migrants had higher intention and ability to permanently live in cities they worked in and thus might become the main force of China's urbanization in the coming decades. (4) The spatial pattern of floating population was shaped jointly by the state and market forces in transitional China. While the impacts of state forces have been surpassed by market forces in the country as a whole, they are still important in shaping the development space of central and western China. (5) The massive mobility of population contributed a large proportion to the increase of urbanization levels of both origin and destination regions and reshaped China's urban system in terms of its hierarchical organization and spatial structure.

基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据,对中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及其城镇化效应进行了系统分析。研究发现,流动人口分布的空间格局具有较强的稳定性,长三角、珠三角和京津冀等沿海城市群仍然是其主要集中地,且沿海集中区有连绵化的趋势,但在城市群内部的空间分布模式差异显著。流动人口向内陆地区的省会等特大城市集中趋势明显,其分布重心出现了明显的北移。省内县际的流动人口规模已接近于省际流动,且有更高的意愿和更强的能力永久居留城镇,省内县际的永久性迁移将成为未来中国人口城镇化的主导模式。中国流动人口迁入地的选择受到政府和市场双重力量的影响,后者的影响力更强。远距离流入东部地区的人口在务工之外,对享受城市生活也开始有所考虑;而中西部地区政府力量在引导人口流动中仍起到重要作用。大规模的人口流动对流出地和流入地的城镇化水平提高均有显著贡献,同时在很大程度上重构了中国城镇体系的等级规模结构和空间布局模式。

 In the Chinese context,migration is defined to be move with hukou relocation,which is closely associated with urbanization. Over the past two years,the central government has attached great importance to the urbanization progress of the registered residents. A new round of household registration system reform was launched in 2014. Based on the data of hukou registration transition in 2013,this study examines patterns and determinants of household migration and urbanization of regis- tered population. Results indicate that the difference of hukou status between rural and urban areas was the fundamental cause in holding back household migration. Moreover,migration to big cities is pre- ferred by elites,while the medium-sized cities and small towns are lack of attraction for these people.

户口迁移是真正意义上的迁移,并与城镇化密切相关。文章通过对 2013 年全年户 口迁移业务的数据分析,系统考察中国人口的户口迁移现象以及户籍人口的城镇化。研究结果显 示: 户籍制度改革无法惠及所有人群,需要利用公共服务的全覆盖来弥补政策的不足; 三类大城市 城镇户口的准入门槛相对较高并呈现出精英化倾向,大城市户籍人口城镇化的方向应当在严格控 制人口数量的前提下,向中低文化程度的劳动者有序、适当开放; 中小城市和小城镇户口对于高层 次人才的吸引力严重不足,为促进户籍人口城镇化,应该将一批有潜力的中小城市做大、做强; 提高 户籍人口城镇化率的关键环节在于对农业转移人口的妥善安排,在此过程中要防止“半城镇化”现 象的出现。

Migration in China is a process that involves not only floating to destinations but also settling down there by gaining local Hukou. The second step, in particular, has become the primary concern of the recent new-type urbanization. But, important as it is, our knowledge about this particular step is severely restricted due largely to data limitation, and this article tries to overcome the restriction. In the article, we first estimate the number of Hukou migration at the 277 prefecture level cities (not including Sanya, Danzhou, Haidong, Hulunbuir, Bayannur, Wuhu, Bengbu, Zhengzhou, Pingdingshan, Nanyang, Huangshi and cities of Xinjiang, Xizang, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan) between 2011 and 2017; We then compare its spatiotemporal patterns with those of floating population over the period, and we further evaluate the impact of New-type Urbanization Plan on its patterns. Results show that Hukou migration has become increasingly active in recent years, and its spatial patterns are highly similar to those of the floating population. Popular destinations are primarily situated in the three coastal regions, whereas the geographic distribution of origin is much less clustered, with the highest out-Hukou-migration being found in the middle Yangtze River and Northeast China. Mega-cities are where the local Hukou is most pursed, first-tier cities maintain a persistent attraction for Hukou migration; and the emerging second-tier cities have seen a rapid increase in the intake of this migration. Small and median-sized cities, by contrast, are very uncompetitive, despite that all the restrictions on Hukou transfer have been removed there. These cities have even seen an increasing out-migration of their Hukou-holders. The results revealed here are the basis on which our advice for policy makers are made. The advice is not simply on the issue of Hukou reforms, but also touches the topics of balanced regional development and reduced urban inequality. The results also highlight the exciting research prospect of both Hukou migration and new-type urbanization, a prospect that requires both creative imaginations and vigorous investigations of China’s prospect of both Hukou migration and new-type urbanization, a prospect that requires both creative imaginations and vigorous investigations of China’s migration.

基于户籍人口自然与机械增长的分解,估算2011—2017年全国地级及以上城市的户籍迁移人口,对比分析户籍迁移和人口流动的时空特征,评估国家新型城镇化战略中按规模等级引导城市落户政策的影响。结果表明,近年来,中国户籍迁移日趋活跃,人口迁移与流动的空间格局高度耦合；迁入热点区主要集中在沿海三大城市群,迁出地较为分散,以长江中游和东北地区迁出最多。特大城市对流动人口落户的吸引力最强,一线城市户籍迁移持续活跃,新兴二线城市的迁入规模快速提升；而即使普遍没有落户限制,中小城市的吸引力仍十分有限,户籍迁出趋势持续强化。

Based on data from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey and related statistics, this article examines the spatial pattern and its determinants of migrants' intention of hukou transfer of China's 276 prefecture- and provincial-level cities, using GIS spatial analysis and statistical modelling. The results show that the overall level of migrants' hukou transfer intention of the cities is not high, and varies significantly among different cities. The intention of migrants' hukou transfer increases as the administrative level and/or the size of their destination cities increase. Meanwhile, migrants' hukou transfer intention is generally higher in coastal mega-city regions than in other cities, but it is also relatively high in some provincial capital cities and small and medium-sized cities in some inland regions with good transport location and resource endowment. The spatial pattern of migrants' intention of hukou transfer is shaped jointly by both the characteristics of the destination cities and migrants themselves characteristics, with the former exerting more influence than the latter. High level of socioeconomic development and good location of the destination cities can effectively promote their migrants' intention of hukou transfer; however, their level of basic public services does not have the same effect. The degree of migrants' social integration in the destination cities also exerts positive effects on their hukou transfer intention. However, having medical insurance, the concentration in the secondary labor market and higher household income are negatively related to such intention; furthermore, the individual and family characteristics of migrants do not have a significant impact on it. Finally, on the basis of the above findings, we put forward some suggestions for relevant policy making.

基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和相关统计年鉴数据,对中国地级以上城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿、空间格局及影响因素进行了系统分析。研究发现,中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的整体水平并不高;等级高、规模大的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,而等级低、规模小的城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低;沿海城市群流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高,其他城市流动人口的户籍迁移意愿低,但内陆部分省会城市和交通区位与资源禀赋较好的中小城市也已经形成了一批流动人口的户籍迁移意愿高值区。中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间分布特征受到流入城市和流动人口自身双重力量的影响,流入城市因素的正向影响作用大于流动人口自身因素。其中,流入城市的社会、经济发展水平和流动人口在流入城市的社会融合程度是核心要素,对城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的提升具有正向的促进作用,而流动人口过于集中在次级劳动力市场的就业特征和较高的家庭财富与收入对户籍迁移意愿的提升却具有显著的抑制作用。最后,提出了相关政策启示。

"This paper reports the findings of a field survey conducted in Dongguan and Meizhou, two cities in Guangdong Province with contrasting economic characteristics. The data clearly demonstrate that the permanent migrants and the temporary migrants belong to two very different segments of the population. Striking similarities are revealed for the permanent migrants in very different settings. However, there are signs that even in this tightly controlled sector, economics will soon take precedence over politics as the main driving force underlying migration."excerpt

China's migrant population continued to grow for decades, but has slowly declined since 2015. In such a context, the destination choice of stock migrants has a profound influence on the future pattern of population distribution and urbanisation. Previous analysis and modelling of internal migration in China have mainly focused on the primary migration or the most recent one, while it has long been recognized that migration is a repetitive event. Migrants have various motives and strategies in different stages, and the experience gained from the primary migration will affect the subsequent one. So, the primary and onward migrations differ in their spatial patterns. This paper focused on China's onward migrants who have moved once. Considering both the origins and primary destinations, we constructed a framework of how multi-proximity, which includes cognitive proximity, geographic proximity, institutional proximity, informational proximity and social proximity, which generates an influence on destination choice by affecting the migration cost. Based on data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, and by the use of the nested logit model, we make an empirical test. The results show that migrants have a dual identity of the origin and the primary destination, and their onward migration is based simultaneously on these two places. After controlling the effects of cities' characteristics, dual multi-proximity has a significant and robust impact on migrants' decision-making. Onward migrants prefer destinations which match them well in education background, and are geographically adjacent to, and closely connected with their origins and previous destinations. The migration network between a destination and its origins increases the likelihood that onward migrants will migrate to such a destination. Besides, migrants are willing to return to the province of their origins subjectively, but cities in such provinces are generally lack of attractiveness due to low level of socio-economic development. However, the effect of proximities varies from different groups. This is reflected in the following facts. First, women are more dependent on their hometown networks than men. Second, the new generation of migrants is similar to the older one in many ways, but relies more on the information and social connections of their hometowns than the latter. Finally, highly educated migrants are able to take advantage of localized social capital owing to their deep social integration in the primary destinations and are less dependent on the social capital in their origins. So, their destination choice is more similar to local residents than their counterparts.

中国人口流动进入总量稳定下的空间调整新阶段,存量流动人口的再流动成为塑造人口和城镇化格局的主体因素。本文从户籍地和前期流入地两个基点出发,综合考虑地理、制度、信息、社会、认知等维度,构建了双重多维邻近性影响人口再流动目的地选择的理论框架,利用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和嵌套Logit模型开展实证研究。结果表明：双重多维邻近性对人口再流动的空间选择具有显著而稳健的影响。人口再流动时,会选择与自身知识水平更匹配、与户籍地和前期流入地都更近、信息联系都更强的城市,但社会联系仍主要依靠老家。流动人口具有回到户籍所在省（区、市）的主观意愿,但省内城市普遍机会不多、环境欠佳,缺乏吸引力。相对而言,女性对同乡网络的依赖高于男性;新生代流动人口在很多方面继承了老一代的特点,甚至比后者更依赖老家的信息和社会联系;高学历流动人口在流入地的深度社会融入使其能够利用本地化社会资本,再流动的空间选择也与流入地居民更为类似。

Traditional theories of urban development have been outmoded in the era of globalization and knowledge economy, and urban amenities are now considered as a more and more important factor promoting urban growth. Urban amenities have become an increasingly hot topic in the western countries, to which the researchers in China seem to have not paid too much attention. This article aims at obtaining a comprehensive understanding of overseas research in the field of urban amenities, in order to provide references for urban amenity research in China. By collecting and analyzing related publications, this paper gives a systematically review of overseas research on urban amenities from several aspects: (1) the theoretical basis, including human demand theory, capital theory and sciences of human settlement; (2) concepts of urban amenities defined by different researches, and three types of urban amenities, i.e. natural amenities, modern amenities and social amenities; (3) urban amenities and amenity migration; (4) the influence of urban amenities on location decisions of talents, companies and urban growth; (5) commonly used research methods of urban amenities including survey, Hedonic price model and structure equation model. After that, the author makes comments on the current research progress and research trends. At the same time, comparisons between domestic and foreign researches on urban amenities are also discussed. The main conclusions from the review are as follows. (1) Quite a few of Western scholars have demonstrated that urban amenities work as an promoter to urban development through attracting talents and companies, whereas the concept of urban amenity has been studied just as a component of the livability of a city, which has not been closely related to urban development; (2) the focus of the scholars on urban amenities has changed from natural factors previously to modern elements now, such as restaurants, museums and bars, because a city, after all, is man-made; (3) the theory of urban amenities is more concerned with the needs of talent and the creative class, so it is a demand oriented developmental theory, which can not only help make a city successful in economic growth but also facilitate continuous urban development. With the influence of globalization, there is a strong necessity of carrying out studies on urban amenities in China from the three aspects: (1) it has been widely proved that urban amenities have a strong relation with urban growth, and China will lose more profit if we ignore it, especially for super cities as Beijing and Shanghai. With the rapid progress of urbanization and economic development in China, more people come to urban areas, so it is of great significance to take urban amenities into consideration in the process of making developmental strategies; (2) urban planning system can also benefit from urban amenity studies, since it is concerning people's needs; (3) the Twelfth Five-year Plan of China has proposed to speed up economic restructuring from traditional industries to high-tech industries. Considering that the developmental theory of urban amenities lies in attracting human capital and technical enterprises, it may very well provide guidance for the economic restructuring of the cities in China. Above all, from the perspective of both perfecting related research and promoting urban growth, the research of urban amenities in China is needed.

城市发展中所关注的研究内容随城市所处的发展阶段和时代而变化。西方发达国家对城市舒适性的研究已经有长达70年的历史,而中国在这方面的研究开展甚少,并且对国外城市舒适性相关研究缺乏全面的认识。首先系统梳理了国外研究中关于城市舒适性的理论基础、概念、内涵,及其与人口迁移和城市发展的关系,并对研究方法进行了介绍；其次对国外城市舒适性研究进展进行了简要的评述和研究趋势展望,进而提出,从城市发展前瞻性的视角出发,有必要在中国深入开展城市舒适性研究,并对如何在中国城市规划设计、城市经济转型研究中借鉴城市舒适性研究理念和研究方法进行了分析。

This study focuses on the role of local climate conditions in spurring interregional migration in China over the period 2000 to 2010. We developed a robust empirical approach based on a correlated random effects model and a prefecture-level panel dataset which allows us to account for both within province migration flows and prefecture-specific characteristics. Empirical results reveal that climate conditions are important determinants of migration in China. Specifically, prefectures with warmer winter, cooler summer, and more available sunshine are more attractive to migrants. Economic factors such as income level and employment opportunities are also important drivers of population growth.

With the continuous changes in the composition and migration patterns of floating population in China, amenities such as air quality have gradually become important factors in shaping the spatial pattern of migration. On one hand, the heterogeneous demand structure of various subgroups of migrants is surely to lead to substantial change in their overall preference for attributes of destination cities as the composition of migrants evolves significantly in recent years, that is, but not limited to, the increasing shares of the high-skilled, the aged, and followers. On the other hand, emerging types of migration such as inter-city migration, secondary migration, and return migration has not only made the spatial modes of China′s internal migration much more complex than before but also provided more opportunities to cities that used to lack economic superiority and thus can rarely share the migration dividend in the past. Against this background, based on the data of population censuses and sample surveys since 2000 and by using panel data models, this paper explores the overall characteristics, changing trends and acting paths of the effect of air quality on migration. Regression results of the panel data model demonstrated the significantly positive association between air quality and net migration rate which has rarely been discussed in previous literature. A set of cross-sectional models further revealed the increasing role that air quality plays in affecting the geography of China′s internal migration, which is in line with the migration transition history of developed countries. In-depth analysis on the mechanism of this effect found that the environmental condition has been acting mainly as a push factor instead of a pull one. Air quality is directly related to the emigration decision, which means that a number of Chinese people have been escaping from heavily polluted areas. In contrast, satisfactory air quality and pleasant living conditions have not been a vital factor in attracting migrants. As it is a fact that income level and job opportunity still play a significant role in pulling, their overall influence has been shrinking gradually as the income level increases commonly in all Chinese cities. In addition, the study verified the guiding role of accessibility of educational resources for cities to attract internal migrants and further revealed the continuously strengthened position of megalopolises as the main spatial form of China′s new-type urbanization from the perspective of migration.

随着中国流动人口群体构成和迁移模式的持续变化,空气质量等舒适性要素逐渐成为塑造人口迁移空间格局的重要因素。基于2000年以来的人口普查和抽样调查数据,本文探讨了空气质量对人口迁移影响的总体特征、变动趋势和作用模式。研究发现,空气质量已逐渐成为影响中国人口迁移格局的重要因素,且主要表现为推力作用。空气质量直接关系到人口迁出决策,污染严重的地区更难留住人;而在迁入地选择过程中,收入水平和就业机会则更为重要,但其影响近年来有所弱化,城市吸引力更加综合多元。此外,研究还验证了教育资源对人口迁移的导向性作用,并从人口迁移的角度发现了城市群作为城镇化主体形态的地位在持续强化。

Based on data from migration dynamic micro survey 2016, this article first construct the network of interprovincial Hukou transfer intention in China. Then, with the use of some spatial analysis methods, including global Moran’s I coefficient and hot spot, we explore the spatial pattern of such network. Considering network autocorrelation in our data, Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Gravity Model (ESFGM) is applied for analyzing the driving factors. Main results reveal that: 1) The network shows a concentrating spatial pattern, and migrating flows with high ranks are mainly from the undeveloped areas to developed regions. That is to say, the willingness of transferring Hukou differs from regions to regions, showing heterogeneity. 2) Although there exists a random spatial pattern of Hukou attractiveness, such pattern of out-migration is concentrating. Furthermore, provinces in the west and northwest are the hot spot areas of Hukou emigration intention, while the cold spot areas are the mid-east regions in China. 3) From the macro perspective, population of destination shows a negative impact on Hukou transfer intention, while the size of population in an origin is not highly correlated; per capita GDP of both origin and destination, as well as export of foreign-invested firms, influence the intention positively and notably. But among all macro factors, the average wage of employees in urban areas leads to relatively higher impact. 4) From the micro perspective, generally speaking, migrants’ individual and family factors have strong ties with their Hukou transfer intention. A migrant, with higher education level, smaller age and larger scale of family in the destination, tends to transfer his (or her) Hukou to the immigration place. In the meantime, impacts of house condition and migration reason cannot be ignored: a migrant with lower intention of buying a local house or migrating for business, is likely to have a lower intention of transferring Hukou.

构建中国省际流动人口户籍迁移网络,运用探索性空间分析及空间滤波等方法分析该网络的空间格局和驱动力。主要发现：① 户籍迁移意愿网络呈现出集聚的空间格局,排序较高的户籍迁移意愿流主要从欠发达地区指向发达地区。② 户籍吸引力及户籍流出分别呈现出随机及集聚的空间格局,户籍流出热点区为西部及东北地区,冷点区为中东部地区。③ 迁入地人口、FDI、迁入地及迁出地人均GDP、平均工资等因素均显著影响户籍迁移意愿。流动人口个体、家庭因素、住房条件及迁移原因等同样与户籍迁移意愿的关系紧密。

Human capital is the key driver of urban innovation and development. In 2017, the "vying for talent" competition was initiated by some second-tier cities, since then cities have been competing each other fiercely for recruiting and retaining talent. This paper focuses on China′s "first-class" university graduates, who are regarded as the main target of the "vying for talent" competition and an important carrier of human capital. Based on 2018 Graduate Employment Reports, this paper demonstrates the spatial mobility of graduates using Cartogram. In addition, an evaluation system for assessing talent policy is constructed through analyses of the talent policies issued by different cities. With a directional migration model, the determinants of graduate mobility are explored. The results reveal that there are significant regional disparities in retention rates, with the geographical patterns of the Y-shaped low-value areas in the northeastern, northwestern, and central regions, and the U-shaped high-value areas covering east coast to southwest. Graduates have been accumulating spatially, and the T-shaped cluster along east coast and the Yangtze River Economic Belt has formed. The spatial patterns of "neighborhood interaction" and "long-distance unidirectional flow" are presented between the city of university and the city of employment. Moreover, the differences in city attractiveness are remarkable. First-tier cities are preferred by graduates, even though limited talent policies have been implemented there. Some second-tier cities have issued talent policies to make up for the lack of attractiveness in economy and amenities. The findings suggest that economic factors, such as income level and technological innovation, as well as amenities including natural and cultural environment, educational resources, and public transportation are positively associated with the volume of graduates inflow. It has been found that a higher ratio of house price to income has squeezed out university graduates. With regard to talent policies, only relaxed hukou policy has a strong effect on attracting graduates, whereas the effects of housing and employment policies are relatively limited. However, it needs to be noted that talent policies may take a longer time to show effects, which requires follow-up investigation. In addition, heterogeneity at the individual level in terms of place of origin, major, etc. should be explored in the future studies.

自2017年以来,“人才争夺战”如火如荼,城市步入以人才为核心要素的高维竞争阶段。作为人才争夺战的主要目标和人力资本的重要承载者,本文聚焦中国“一流大学”毕业生,基于2018年《毕业生就业质量报告》,运用Cartogram地图呈现了毕业生的空间流动特征,并梳理政府人才政策文件构建了人才政策评价指标体系,运用有向迁移模型剖析毕业生流动的影响因素。结果表明：① 就学地存在粘滞性,但区域差异显著,毕业生向一线城市集聚。② 城市吸引力水平分异明显,部分城市通过发布人才政策以补充地方经济、舒适性吸引力的不足。③ 经济维度要素与城市舒适性均能有效吸引毕业生流入,较高房价收入比会引发“挤出效应”。人才政策中,落户政策对毕业生流入起激励作用。