地理学报 2017 , 72 (2): 315-328 https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201702011

GIS在犯罪地理学的应用

ZG市诈骗犯罪的时空分布与影响因素

柳林¹^,²^,, 张春霞¹, 冯嘉欣¹, 肖露子¹, 贺智¹, 周淑丽¹

1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院综合地理信息研究中心,广州 510275
2. 辛辛那提大学地理系,美国辛辛那提 OH45221-0131

The spatial-temporal distribution and influencing factorsof fraud crime in ZG city, China

LIU Lin¹^,²^,, ZHANG Chunxia¹, FENG Jiaxin¹, XIAO Luzi¹, HE Zhi¹, ZHOU Shuli¹

1. School of Geography Science and Planning, Center of Integrated Geographic Information Anlaysis,Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
2. Department of Geography,University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0131, USA

收稿日期: 2016-06-25

修回日期: 2017-01-10

网络出版日期: 2017-02-15

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金重点项目(41531178)广东省自然科学基金研究团队项目(2014A030312010)国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目(41522104)国家自然科学基金项目(41171140)广东省科技计划项目(2015A020217003)

作者简介:

作者简介：柳林(1965-), 男, 湖南湘潭人, 博士, 教授, 中国地理学会会员(S110007983M), 主要研究方向为犯罪空间模拟、GIS应用等。E-mail: liulin2@mail.sysu.edu.cn; lin.liu@uc.edu

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摘要

诈骗犯罪是现代城市中亟待解决的一大社会难题。现有研究多从社会学角度,基于微观层次探讨影响诈骗受害的个人属性特征,缺乏从地理学视角对诈骗受害者生存环境中的中宏观层次因素的考虑。本文基于犯罪地理学视角,综合运用平均最近邻、核密度以及负二项回归等研究方法,对ZG市5类诈骗警情的时空分布特征和基于建成环境与社会环境两大维度的影响因素进行了深入探讨。结果表明：① 各类诈骗的时间分布规律各异,但整体上呈现出工作日高于休息日、下午或晚上高于上午、凌晨时段为最低的特征;② 和其他类型的城市犯罪类似,诈骗犯罪整体呈现出与老城区距离衰减的“多中心”显著性集聚特征;各类型诈骗热点的空间分布大同小异,多分布在城市的老城区、CBD、火（汽）车站、城中村或高校布局的周边地带;③ 各类诈骗犯罪的空间分布影响因素各异,但整体表现出与银行网点、旅游景点、道路密度、土地利用混合度、高校等建成环境因素高度相关;与购买商品房家庭占比、受教育水平、人口老龄化和城镇化水平等社会环境显著相关的特性。本文拓展了犯罪地理学领域对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,证实了各类诈骗犯罪符合日常活动理论的理论假设,对诈骗受害情景预防具有重要意义。

关键词： ZG市 ; 诈骗犯罪 ; 时空分布 ; 影响因素

Abstract

Fraud crime is a widespread social problem that should be taken seriously in modern city. Previous studies mainly focused on personal attributes of victims at the micro level from the perspective of sociology, rather than the environmental factors at the macro level from the perspective of geography. Using methods such as average nearest neighbor analysis, kernel density and negative binomial regression, this paper aims to discuss spatial-temporal characteristics of five types of fraud crime in ZG city, and explore the influencing factors of physical and socioeconomic environment based on the perspective of crime geography. The main results are as follows: (1) Each type of fraud crime has its own characteristics of temporal distribution. However, on the whole, fraud crime takes place on workdays more than on weekends, in the afternoon and evening more than in the morning. It reaches the minimum before dawn. (2) Similar to other urban crimes, the spatial distribution of fraud crime reveals significantly polycentric patterns that follow the trend of distance decay, and hot spots of various fraud crimes are mostly alike except minor differences. Diverse fraud crimes are mostly distributed in the old city, CBD, railway stations, bus stations, urban villages, or around colleges and universities. Each type of fraud crime shows different trends of aggregation and dispersion. (3) Different fraud crimes are influenced by disparate factors, but all of them are highly correlated with physical environment, such as bank branches, tourist attractions, road networks, mixed land use and college or university campuses. Moreover, house ownership, education level, age and urbanization level also have significant effects on fraud crime. The study expands the research of fraud crime to the spatial context and proves that fraud crime conforms to the theoretical assumptions of routine activity theory, which could potentially help reduce fraud.

Keywords： ZG city ; fraud crime ; spatial-temporal distribution ; influencing factors

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柳林, 张春霞, 冯嘉欣, 肖露子, 贺智, 周淑丽. ZG市诈骗犯罪的时空分布与影响因素[J]. , 2017, 72(2): 315-328 https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201702011

LIU Lin, ZHANG Chunxia, FENG Jiaxin, XIAO Luzi, HE Zhi, ZHOU Shuli. The spatial-temporal distribution and influencing factorsof fraud crime in ZG city, China[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(2): 315-328 https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201702011

1 引言

近年来,随着互联网、智能手机和新型支付方式的普及,通过网络、电话、短信等方式的诈骗侵财类案件显著上升。据《中国法律年鉴》的统计数据显示,全国诈骗类案件在2003-2012年之间保持了高达11.82%年平均增长率^[1]。诈骗犯罪具有隐蔽化、多样化、高科技化及跨境化等特征,诈骗金额愈发巨大^[2],破案率却持续低迷。诈骗犯罪严重威胁公民的财产安全,也在拷问着政府的治理与监管能力。

犯罪地理学是研究犯罪现象与地理环境之间关系的一门学科,其核心内容是研究犯罪现象的空间分布模式和空间作用过程^[3-4]。犯罪事件在空间上并非均质分布,具有典型的时空集聚性^[5]。研究城市犯罪的空间分布模式,有利于识别城市犯罪的高发区,但若想透过现象看本质,解释缘何某些区域犯罪高发,还需对其成因进行更深层次探讨。现有成果表明,酒吧^[6]、餐饮设施^[7]、银行网点^[8-9]、土地利用类型^[10]、道路交通网络^[11-14]等要素对社区各类暴力犯罪影响显著;出生率与自杀率和社会经济状况、住房、民族特征等方面显著相关^[15];机动车盗窃与所在街区的种族异质性、失业率等因素紧密相连^[16];社区邻里关系对入室盗窃空间分布影响显著^[17]。总之,犯罪高发是多因素共同作用的结果,探讨城市建成环境^[18-21]和社会环境^[22]对各类犯罪的影响机制,成为当今社会研究的一大热点。

现有对犯罪空间分布模式和影响因素的研究,主要集中在入室盗窃、街头抢劫等^[23-28]暴力型犯罪,对诈骗犯罪的研究还十分浅显与匮乏^[29-30]。学者多基于法学、社会学或心理学视角,或探讨诈骗犯罪法律建设的完善,或寻求导致诈骗受骗的个人日常活动特征^[31]。当然也有学者开始尝试基于犯罪地理学的视角,研究网络诈骗受害者的空间分布特征和影响因素等问题,如Lane等^[32]等研究美国2002-2006年的身份盗窃受害者的空间布局特征和影响因素,认为导致人们被身份盗窃的显著性影响因素有种族、城乡人口等社会因素。而这一研究也拓展了犯罪地理学在诈骗犯罪这一领域的成果。

现有对诈骗犯罪的研究多为针对受害者,而解释犯罪受害最流行的观点是基于个人的生活方式理论（lifestyle theory）^[33-36]和日常活动理论（routine-activities theory）^[37]。这两个理论都假设“潜在受害者的习惯、生活方式和行为模式,增加了犯罪的发生率”。其中以日常活动理论应用为更广。该理论认为犯罪受害的发生,必须符合“有吸引力的目标、可能的犯罪者和监护人的缺乏”3个条件^[38-39]。现有针对诈骗受害的研究,多为采用调查问卷的方法来获取个人的基本数据,解释诈骗受害或重复受害^[40]的影响因素。如导致人们成为电话诈骗^[41-42]、网络诈骗^[43-44]、身份盗窃^[45]、远程购物诈骗^[46]、商品促销诈骗^[47]等类型诈骗受害者的影响因素有哪些?部分成果将原用以解释实体空间犯罪被害的日常活动理论,应用拓展到网络^[48]、电话等非接触的虚拟空间。

总之,现有研究多为对某一类型诈骗犯罪受害的研究,缺乏对多种诈骗类型的系统探讨;从犯罪地理学视角开展对诈骗犯罪受害者的时空分布研究,对有针对性地开展城市犯罪情景预防意义重大,但目前该部分的研究成果还十分匮乏;多为基于日常活动理论的视角下,探讨导致诈骗受害的微观个体原因,缺乏对影响受害者日常生活的中宏观层次因素的探讨。

本文以中国南方大都市ZG市的诈骗警情为例,探讨各类城市诈骗犯罪的空间分布模式,并尝试从建成环境和社会环境两个层面探讨其影响因素,以期拓展犯罪地理学对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,为诈骗情景预防提供理论与实践的指导意义。本文旨在解决3个问题：① 总诈骗和5类专项诈骗的时间分布特征如何?有无时间集聚性?② 总诈骗和5类专项诈骗受害者空间分布特征如何?是否具有空间集聚性。③ 基于建成环境和社会环境的层面,探讨各类诈骗受害空间分布的显著性影响因素有哪些?

2 数据来源与研究方法

2.1 研究区域与数据来源

本文选择ZG市为样本区,是因为ZG市经济发达、人口众多、开放性程度非常高,被称为中国的“南大门”。ZG市公安局在2015年开展的专项犯罪打击整治行动中,将涉诈骗犯罪定为一项重要的专项任务,并在2015年4月份成立诈骗专项犯罪调研小组,开始对诈骗警情数据进行标准化。将原来笼统的诈骗犯罪,按照诈骗方式的不同分为了电话诈骗、网络诈骗、短信诈骗、接触型诈骗和信用卡诈骗共5种类型。研究数据选用ZG市公安局2015年4-5月的110诈骗接警数据,但由于原始的诈骗警情数据只有地址信息,并未实现对数据点的空间可视化。通过百度API端口,使用Java书写程序获得免费的经纬度坐标,并建立纠偏模型,获取犯罪点的WGS84坐标,最后采用手工校对的方式,对不能实现空间自动落点的数据进行人工处理,最终得到6175条诈骗警情数据。研究中的其他数据主要包括第六次全国人口普查数据、土地利用、各类建成环境中的设施点、道路网等基础信息数据。

2.2 研究方法

采用平均最近邻来描述各类诈骗犯罪的空间分布特征,然后基于核密度估计法探测各类诈骗犯罪空间热点,对诈骗受害者空间分布影响因素的分析,根据数据本身的特性,采用负二项建模的方法进行研究。

2.2.1 平均最近邻分析平均最近邻分析（average nearest neighbor analysis）以空间中的诈骗点为考察对象,计算每个观测点与最邻近点的平均距离（Obj.D）,继而与点和点之间的随机平均距离（Random.D）做比较。如果Obj.D<Random.D,表示所分析的诈骗点空间分布为聚类。反之,则视为分散。平均最近邻比率通过观测平均距离除以期望平均距离计算得出。比率小于1,说明诈骗点分布模式为集聚,反之为分散^[49]。

2.2.2 核密度估计核密度估计法是用来估计点的空间集聚性的密度函数,是一种非参数估计方法。适用于生成一个描述观测变量聚集程度的二维平滑估计面,可以得到空间连续的密度变化图层,显示“波峰”和“波谷”^[50]。核密度估计作为犯罪活动空间分析的重要手段,所导出的结果可以直接进行热点分析^[51],且不受地理位置影响,可直观体现了犯罪活动的空间集聚趋势。值越高,表明点要素分布越密集,反之,越分散。

2.2.3 负二项回归负二项回归模型（negative binomial model）^[52]一个连续的混合泊松分布,其允许泊松均值服从γ分布,其概率表达式为所示。

$\begin{matrix} \Pr (Y = y) = \frac{Γ (y + τ)}{y! Γ (τ)} {(\frac{τ}{λ + τ})}^{τ} {(\frac{λ}{λ + τ})}^{y} \\ y = 0, 1, \dots; λ, τ > 0 \\ λ = E (Y) \end{matrix}$ （1）

式中：τ为模糊参数;Y为因变量,即各社区诈骗犯罪的数量,Y的方差为 $\begin{matrix} λ + \frac{λ^{2}}{τ} \end{matrix}$ 。当τ趋于无限大时,负二项接近于泊松分布。负二项分布有一个很简单的性质,即其方差大于均值。

3 时空分布特征

3.1 时间特征

以天为单位,对5类诈骗警情数据进行相关性分析。发现总诈骗数据在两个月的整体相关性系数为0.761,表现为强相关关系^[53]。继续对每类诈骗数据进行相关性分析,发现除信用卡诈骗（-0.225）呈现弱负相关和接触型诈骗（0.521）呈中等程度相关外,网络诈骗（0.741）、电话诈骗（0.735）、短信诈骗（0.666）以及接触型诈骗（0.521）均表现为强相关关系的特点。说明各类诈骗数据在月尺度上具有统计意义上的相关关系。但考虑到由于只有两个月的数据,以天为单位的分析代表性意义不强,因此,本文进一步以星期和小时为单位进行更详细指标的分析。

对总诈骗和各分类诈骗从一周7天和一天24小时的维度进行交叉分析（图1）,发现：每天的诈骗警情主要集中在10:00-18:00,尤其是工作日周一到周四的14:00-17:30最为集中;一周内的最高峰出现在周三的15:00-16:00;虽然在周六的14:00-15:00也出现了短暂的小高峰,但整体还是呈现出工作日高于周末、下午时段高于上午时段的特点。

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图1 ZG市各类诈骗的时间分布特征

Fig. 1 The temporal distribution characteristics of all kinds of fraud in ZG city

具体而言,电话诈骗在工作日周一到周四的9:30-11:00和14:30-16:30均出现了高峰期,尤以周二的10:00左右最集中。警情数量从早9:30后上升,晚20:00后急剧减少,在中午休息时间段13:00左右出现低谷段,周末两天呈现出明显的下降;网络诈骗的高峰期在一周中分布均匀,工作日的14:00-17:30和周六日的15:00左右均出现明显的高峰期。这与人们的日常上网习惯有关,移动PC端的普及,在为人们工作和生活提供便利的同时,也给骗子提供了有利之机;短信诈骗一周内时间分布较为均匀,只在周五到周日3天的17:00和20:00左右出现短暂小高峰外,在一周内并无出现明显的高峰时段;接触型诈骗的高峰期延续时间短且明显,出现在周二的12:00和14:00以及周四的10:00和14:00;而信用卡诈骗时间热点主要集中在工作日,如周一的13:00和17:00、周二的15:00左右、周三的10:00-11:00和周四的17:00左右。

总之,各类诈骗时间分布规律各异,但整体表现出工作日高于休息日、下午多于上午、凌晨为最低的时间规律特征。休息日少,是因为周末时段家人的“守望效应”增强所致;下午时段和上、下午的后半时段多,可能是因为诈骗犯需要有一段时间与受害人进行周璇联系之后,才发生的受害者受骗转账行为;而凌晨则为人们日常活动的休眠时段。可见诈骗犯罪发生的时间特征符合传统犯罪日常活动理论的理论假设。

3.2 空间分布特征

3.2.1 诈骗犯罪点的空间分布运用平均最近邻分析方法对各类诈骗警情的空间集聚特征进行检验（表1）,发现不同诈骗类型的空间集聚特征差别较小。各类诈骗警情的平均最近邻指数（NNA）均小于1,Z检验值均小于-2.58,在0.01的显著性水平下通过检验,属于显著的空间集聚模式。说明总诈骗和各类诈骗案件的空间集聚特征均非常显著。

表1 ZG市诈骗犯罪警情平均最近邻距离分析

Tab. 1 The average nearest neighbor analysis of ZG city's fraud crime alert

诈骗类型	样本数(个)	平均最近邻距离(m)	期望平均最近邻距(m)	平均最近邻指数(NNA)	Z检验值	显著性水平
总诈骗	6175	93.87	255.54	0.367	-95.10	0.01
电话诈骗	2434	167.67	404.25	0.414	-55.23	0.01
网络诈骗	2156	191.51	425.33	0.450	-48.83	0.01
短信诈骗	728	348.43	676.10	0.515	-25.01	0.01
信用卡诈骗	344	614.27	998.38	0.615	-13.65	0.01
接触型诈骗	440	509.13	886.19	0.575	-17.74	0.01

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进一步用核密度估计方法进行分析,由于核密度分析时的带宽问题往往成为影响可视化效果的重要指标,本文依据犯罪热点在区域中的位置,在多次进行核密度“带宽”参数的设置后,最终选择250 m的带宽,结果如图2所示。

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图2 ZG市各类诈骗警情的核密度分布

Fig. 2 The kernel density distribution of all kinds of fraud of ZG city

ZG市总诈骗点的分布整体呈现“多中心”和与老城区“距离衰减”的特点,共形成4个明显的犯罪高发区。具体而言：面积最大的热点区处在ZG市的CBD一带,这里有市内最著名的体育中心、最高等级的购物商城、东火车站、高档的酒店以及驻扎了众多世界500强企业的市内最高办公大楼等,除了发达的商业、住宿餐饮业外,也汇聚了众多高校,外来流动人口多,交通发达,经济发展水平高,为诈骗受害提供了优良的土壤;第二和第三大高发区分别位于政府所在地的周边老城区地带,这里有密集破旧的公有住房、完善的商业设施、学校、旅游接待设施,且存在该市最大的有色人种聚集区;第四大高发区位于该市BRT主干道一侧的典型城中村,在这里形成了一个狭长的热点地带。城中村曾经被认为是城市的毒瘤,藏垢纳污,向来是城市问题的高发区。由于中国特殊的国情,城中村的外来人口登记在册的非常少,政府管理异常困难。

各类诈骗点的空间集聚特征大同小异,具体来说：① 电话诈骗有3个明显的热点分布区,第一大热点区位于该市政府所在地附近的老城区;第二和第三大热点区位于政府和CBD周边地带,整体呈现出与总诈骗犯罪类型非常类似的特征。② 网络诈骗和电话诈骗不同,呈现出“零散多中心”的分布模式。除在CBD周边、典型的黑人与流动人口集聚区以及典型城中村周边三大热点区域外,在该市的老机场高速附近出现了一条新的热点聚集带;此外,在市南部地区某著名的地铁口和电影制片厂附近,也出现了两个显著的热点。③ 短信诈骗的热点分布与前两者类似,除了在CBD周边、城中村附近、政府周边外,在南起ZG市最为著名的某一步行街、北至某财富公馆附近也形成了一个狭长的热点地带。④ 接触类诈骗主要集中在本市最著名的两大火车站周边区域,热点带分布较为平缓,自北向南呈现一种大写的“L”形。⑤ 总量最少的信用卡类诈骗和其他类型的诈骗热点分布非常相似,三大热点区分别为市政府附近、CBD附近以及著名的城中村附近。

可见,和其他类型的犯罪相似,诈骗犯罪也存在明显的空间集聚性。总体呈现距离衰减的多中心显著性集聚分布特征,各类诈骗的空间热点分布大同小异,在整体趋势上呈现惊人的一致性,都倾向于向城市老城区、CBD、火（汽）车站、城中村或高校布局的周边地区集中。

运用核密度分析方法,可以非常直观形象地观测到犯罪事件的空间热点。但由于核密度是一种空间可视化的平滑技术,会导致一些并没有犯罪事件的地方也有了密度分布,从而导致夸大犯罪事件的分布范围^{[51, 54]}。尺度单元的可变性,是每个犯罪研究者在研究犯罪问题时不可避免的一个问题^[30]。选取的尺度单元愈小,研究视角愈微观,对犯罪行为的打击和防范的精准度就会愈高。在中国,社区是最小的行政单元,为社会有机体的最基本内容,是宏观社会的缩影。传统观念认为,同一社区的居民具有密切的社会交往和相近的利益与意识,对理解诈骗犯罪的空间分布有着基础性的解释意义。故而,本文选取社区作为空间分析单元,对诈骗犯罪发生的影响因素进行探究。

4 诈骗犯罪的影响因素分析

4.1 指标选取与模型选择

本文选取各社区的总诈骗和5类专项诈骗的数量作为因变量,从影响诈骗受害者日常活动的“建成环境”和“社会环境”两个维度选取解释变量。采用等距法对因变量进行空间可视化,发现ZG市各类诈骗犯罪在社区尺度上,整体呈现出间断不连续的空间聚集特征（图3）。

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图3 ZG市社区各类诈骗警情空间分布

Fig. 3 The distribution of all kinds of fraud based on the community scale of ZG city

借助SPSS软件对因变量进行正态性检验（用Shapiro-Wilk检验）,发现总诈骗数和各类诈骗数的显著性水平均为0.000,小于0.05（表2）,各因变量处于离散分布状态,均不服从正态分布。说明数据并不满足普通最小二乘回归模型的应用前提,且样本方差大于均值。若进行Poisson回归模型分析,模型对数据的拟合效果不理想。所以本文尝试构建负二项回归模型^{[2, 52]}。负二项指标选取应遵循模型变量的显著性水平高、模型整体的AIC（Akaike information criterion）值最小,且在满足以上条件的同时模型变量个数越少越好的原则。结合研究问题反复进行模型解释指标的筛选,最后确定了19个主要解释变量。

建成环境指标主要包括各社区内居民的居住地情况（地产小区个数）、生活设施（各类餐饮、银行网点、医疗设施等）、休闲度假设施（旅游景点、住宿设施）、环境结构指标（道路密度、土地利用混合度^[55]）以及是否具有特殊性的大规模人口聚集（是否存在高校,存在= 1,不存在= 0）等共计11个指标;社会环境指标的选取是基于全国第六次人口普查数据中的社区居民的个体基本属性特征,包括经济能力水平特征（家庭购买商品房的占比、月收入水平在1000元以下的人口占比、人均住房面积）、非物质生活质量特征（离婚丧偶率）、受教育水平特征（中等及以下受教育水平人口占比）、人口老龄化特征（60岁以上老龄化人口占比）、城市化水平（农业人口占比）以及外来人口占比^① (①主要指常驻本地,且政府已经登记在册的外来人口。)等共计8个指标（表3）。

表2 ZG市诈骗犯罪数据正态性检验

Tab. 2 The normality test of ZG city's fraud crime data

变量类型	编码	指标说明	样本均值	样本方差	W^a
因变量	y	各社区总诈骗数	4.72	42.980	0.656
	y₁	电话诈骗数	1.85	9.482	0.561
	y₂	网络诈骗数	1.65	6.493	0.656
	y₃	短信诈骗数	0.56	0.959	0.506
	y₄	接触型诈骗数	0.34	0.538	0.622
	y₅	信用卡诈骗数	0.27	0.346	0.515

注：a正态性检验用Shapiro-Wilk检验

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表3 负二项模型估计结果

Tab. 3 The result of negative binomial model

	变量	共线性检验VIF	总诈骗	电话诈骗	网络诈骗	短信诈骗	接触型诈骗	信用卡诈骗
建成环境	(截距)		-6.13^***	-7.12^***	-7.05^***	-8.95^***	-9.86^***	-8.09^***
	地产小区个数	1.26	-0.006^**	-0.01^**	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	餐饮设施个数	2.10	0.00^*	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	银行网点个数	2.11	0.02^***	0.03^***	0.01^*	0.01	0.02^**	0.03^**
	医疗机构个数	1.97	0.004	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01
	商务大厦个数	1.41	0.08^**	0.07^*	0.06	0.08^*	0.03	0.13^**
	公司企业个数	1.80	0.00^**	0.00^**	0.00^**	0.00	0.00	0.00
	旅游景点个数	1.10	0.32^**	0.33^**	0.44^***	0.40^**	0.55^**	0.39^*
	住宿设施个数	1.81	0.05^***	0.04^***	0.05^***	0.05^***	0.07^***	0.01
	道路密度	1.26	0.01^***	0.01^**	0.01^**	0.01^**	0.01	0.01
	土地利用混合度	1.01	0.16^***	0.15^***	0.16^***	0.19^***	0.18^***	0.14
	有无高校	1.19	0.18^**	0.22^**	0.15	0.06	0.29^*	0.20
社会环境	购买商品房家庭占比	2.43	-0.75^***	-0.55^**	-1.03^***	-0.58^*	-0.55	-0.43
	月收1000元以下占比	1.91	0.05	0.02	0.13	-0.39^*	0.12	-0.64^**
	人均住房面积	1.72	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.02^**
	离婚丧偶者占比	2.98	2.67^*	2.45	1.06	4.16	-1.09	6.41^*
	中等以下受教育占比	2.69	-1.13^***	-0.69^*	-1.44^***	-0.40	0.13	-0.76
	老龄化人口占比	5.36	-5.79^***	-5.23^***	-6.41^***	-3.00	-4.72^*	-7.12^**
	农业人口占比	4.43	-0.60^**	-0.73^**	-0.40	-0.91^**	-0.64	-0.60
	外来人口占比	2.86	0.35	-0.15	0.53^*	0.76^**	0.25	-0.02

注：^***：代表在0.01的置信度下显著;^**：代表在0.05的置信度下显著;^*：代表在0.1的置信度下显著。

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4.2 影响因素分析

为了提高模型的模拟精度,需要对各自变量进行共线性检验,变量的方差膨胀因子（variance inflation factor, VIF）值越大,说明各变量之间的共线性越强。通常情况下要求模型指标的VIF值小于10时表示各变量间没有明显的相关性^[52]。分析结果（表3）显示,各自变量的VIF值均小于10,说明它们之间没有明显的共线性,可同时用于模型拟合。取各社区内的人口数量的对数作为偏移量,并对负二项模型进行似然比检验卡方值为73.80,P值为0.000,说明自变量用于解释因变量是有意义的。

结果显示,ZG市总体诈骗犯罪的空间分布主要表现出与银行网点、住宿设施、道路密度、土地利用混合度在0.01的显著性水平上高度正相关;与餐饮、旅游景点、商务大厦、公司企业、有无高校及离婚丧偶率在0.05和0.1水平上显著正相关;与购买商品房家庭、地产小区个数、低等级受教育水平、老龄化和农业人口显著负相关。5类专项诈骗犯罪空间分布影响因素存在一定的差异。

与银行网点的高度相关性,是由于ZG市的诈骗警情90%以上为电信诈骗（即犯罪者和受害者没有直接接触的诈骗,又可称为非接触型诈骗）,银行转帐是发生电信诈骗的重要一环,诈骗受害者也多为发生转账后才发现被骗而报案;银行同时也是人员和资金往来最为密集的公共场所,吸引犯罪者,且人员监控困难。值得一提的是,5类专项诈骗犯罪中,只有短信诈骗与银行网点不显著相关,这可能是由于短信诈骗的发生,多因受害者大意误信手机收到的某中奖链接、积分兑换等不实信息,从而不慎将自己的个人信息泄漏,致使产生经济损失所致。

与餐饮、住宿和旅游景点设施呈显著正相关。已有研究表明大型赛事旅游活动会带来犯罪率的显著升高^[56],外来游客的急速增长,在旅游设施周围聚集,易导致监控与防范盲区。同时,人们在旅游度假时,身心放松,丧失警惕也容易导致被骗。这3个因素中,旅游景区与5类专项诈骗均表现出显著相关性,住宿与除了信用卡以外的4种专项诈骗显著相关,而餐饮设施只在0.1的水平与总诈骗显著相关,与其他5类专项诈骗均不相关。这是由于住宿和景区是主要的对游客服务的旅游接待设施,游客的流动性、外来性、居住游玩的临时性以及与当地居民的地域文化属性的差异性等因素,都导致其更易被骗。而餐饮设施不仅仅为游客服务,同时也承担了日常居民的接待服务任务。这点也说明诈骗受害与旅游专项设施之间具有显著相关性的特征。

与商务大厦和公司企业所在地显著正相关,这两类设施往往分布在商业发达、人口众多且经济活动活跃的地段^[49],人员构成复杂,易有监控盲区。其中,网络诈骗与公司企业显著相关,这是由于现代公司全部为网络化办公,人们在网上除了日常工作以外,购物、交友等也成为其日常活动。长时间暴露在网络社交空间,增加了人们的受骗风险。另外,网络活动的私密性,导致监控困难。信用卡和短信诈骗与商务大厦均显著相关,这因为商务大厦多集合住宿、购物、游乐等服务设施,人员复杂,常会产生资金交易所致。

与道路密度和土地利用混合度显著正相关,说明道路交通越发达、土地利用混合度越高的地方,人员越密集,流动人口越多,监控越困难,越容易发生诈骗。其中,各分类诈骗只有信用卡诈骗与这两个因素不相关。与高校分布正相关,说明有高校的社区,诈骗受害容易发生。分类诈骗中的电话诈骗和接触型诈骗与该类社区显著相关,这是由于高校是人员密集的场所,在校学生日常空闲时间多,接听电话的时间也多,同时由于社会阅历浅,生活圈子简单,爱好交友,易产生同情心,从而导致易被骗。

与购买商品房家庭、地产小区高度负相关,是由于商品房小区管理较为完善,人群较单一,且很多小区都建有自己的QQ群或微信群,邻里之间信息沟通顺畅,容易产生邻里守望效应,也便于公安部门进行防骗的宣传与监控,这点与核密度分析结果中的诈骗受害多布局在嘈杂的老城区及城中村的研究结论相吻合。

与离婚丧偶率显著正相关,这点与西方学者的研究结果相似^[57],离婚丧偶的人在生活中较为孤独,缺少家人的守望效应^[2]。与中等及以下受教育水平人口、人口老龄化、农业人口比例负相关,说明诈骗受害者多为年轻化、高学历的城市居民。这是由于电信诈骗多为通过网络、电话、短信等方式进行的,年轻的高学历城市居民的信息网络设备使用普及率更高。值得一提的是,医疗机构与各种诈骗类型之间的相关性均不显著,说明ZG市医疗设施旁边的诈骗犯罪并不聚集。

进一步对各类诈骗进行分析,发现：电话诈骗与总体诈骗的影响因素基本一致,说明电话诈骗犯罪主要存在于商业设施发达、交通便利、生活服务设施完善、土地利用混合度高的城市中心地带,受害主体主要是高学历、城镇化水平较高的年轻一代。通过图3的电话诈骗的典型社区可以验证,诈骗犯罪数量最多的社区素以“东山小洋楼”的传统特色民居建筑闻名、有著名旅游景点且以公有住房为主。另外城市的新CBD附近、市中心区、著名部署级高校所在地以及市东部科技化水平较高的近郊地带也是电话诈骗受害者的聚集地带。

网络诈骗与旅游景点、住宿设施、土地利用混合度高度正相关;与银行网点、公司企业分布、道路密度及外来人口呈显著正相关;与购买商品房家庭占比、受教育水平低及老龄化人口高度负相关。说明网络诈骗的受害者主要分布在工作地或日常的活动空间,受害主体主要是外来人口或高学历的年轻一代。外来人口的网络易受骗性可能是由于其主体偏年轻化,对网络的依赖性更强所致。短信诈骗的空间分布主要呈现出与土地利用混合度、旅游景点、住宿设施、外来人口、商务大厦的空间布局显著正相关,还表现出受害主体的高收入水平和高城镇化水平的特征。

而接触型诈骗与其他类型的诈骗方式有所差异,主要表现为与建成环境相关的特性,与社会环境只在0.1水平上与人口老龄化因素显著负相关。具体表现为与住宿设施、土地利用混合度高度正相关;与银行网点、旅游景点及高校的空间布局显著正相关。说明接触型诈骗的受害者,多处于人口流动性较大、商业发达的地带,对涉世未深的在校大学生也有专门的接触型诈骗范式。图3中结果可以验证这一点,接触型诈骗数量等级最高的是火车站和市中心北部的一些典型社区。

信用卡诈骗的影响因素主要表现为与银行网点、商务大厦、旅游景点及丧偶人群的显著正相关性;与低收入水平、人均住房面积、老龄化人口显著负相关。受害主体主要为住房面积较小的中高收入年轻人。这可能是由于信用卡消费的群体,往往是一些理念较为先进且有一定偿还能力的年轻群体所致。

5 结论与讨论

5.1 结论

本文以中国南方最具代表性的省会城市ZG市为例,从犯罪地理学视角系统探讨5类诈骗受害者的时空分布模式,并从城市建成环境和社会环境的中宏观层次,探讨导致诈骗受害的显著性影响因素。该类研究在国内尚属首例,是对犯罪地理学在诈骗犯罪研究领域的一次深化,具有重要的理论与现实指导意义。研究发现：

（1）总诈骗时间热点集聚,分类诈骗时间热点各异。在整体上,各类诈骗基本都呈现出工作日高于休息日、下午或晚上高于上午、凌晨时段为最低的时间分布特征。这基本与人的日常活动相对应,说明诈骗警情的时间分布特征与日常活动理论的理论假设相吻合。

（2）各类诈骗警情呈现显著的空间集聚分布特征。总诈骗警情呈现由市中心向外围区域“距离衰减”的多中心显著性集聚特征;各分类诈骗警情空间热点大同小异,多分布在城市的老城区、CBD、火（汽）车站、城中村或高校布局的周边地带。

（3）对诈骗受害者空间分布的影响因素进行负二项回归建模分析,发现各类诈骗整体表现出与银行网点、旅游景点、道路密度、土地利用混合度、高校等建成环境要素高度相关,与购买商品房家庭占比、受教育水平、老龄化和人口城镇化水平等社会环境要素显著相关的特征。而分类诈骗受害的影响因素各异。

5.2 讨论

诈骗犯罪是现代城市中亟待解决的一大社会难题,目前已经上升为ZG市第二大犯罪类型,研究这一类型的犯罪具有重大的现实与理论指导意义。本文系统分析了5类专项诈骗的时空间分布特征,发现诈骗犯罪和其他类型的犯罪一样存在典型的时间和空间的集聚性^[58-59]。诈骗受害的空间分布是一个多层次、多因素共同作用的结果,既受制于社会环境的制约^[60-61],也对建成环境有显著依赖性^[62]。同时证实了日常活动理论在解释各类诈骗的形成机理上是仍然适用的。本文弥补了西方仅从微观个体探讨诈骗受害影响因素的研究不足^[63],从定量化角度拓展了犯罪地理学对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,填补了国内在这一领域的研究空白。

本文是从犯罪地理学视角对诈骗专项犯罪的一次有益尝试,但目前还处在探索阶段,需要在后续研究中不断进行深化与探索。① 关于各类诈骗犯罪空间集聚程度差异的原因探索,通过计算各类诈骗基于社区尺度的Moran's I指数,发现网络诈骗的空间集聚最为明显（0.194）,其次为短信诈骗（0.1369）和电话诈骗（0.096）,信用卡诈骗（0.069）和接触型诈骗（0.072）空间集聚最不明显,缘何有这种差异有待进一步深挖。② 受制于数据本身的特点,导致诈骗犯罪的时间序列的分析受限^[64],难以精确开展对诈骗犯罪的时间预测。③ 由于对诈骗受害者的个人属性信息的不可获得性,缺乏对更精细化的微观层次因素的考虑。这些内容都有待于进一步研究与深化。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

参考文献

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被引期刊影响因子

[1]	Chen Zengming, Chen Jinran, Liu Xinran. An empirical analysis of fraud crime under the background of informatization . Southeast Academic Research, 2015(1): 98-106. URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要本文主要基于犯罪经济学的研究框架，利用我国2003—2011年的省级面板数据，实证分析了近年来我国财产诈骗犯罪率持续高速增长的严重社会问题。研究结果表明，移动电话普及率、互联网普及率与我国财产诈骗犯罪率之间具有显著的正相关性，即移动电话与互联网的普及是影响我国财产诈骗犯罪率持续上升的重要因素。具体而言，在控制城市化水平、收入差距等一系列社会经济因素后，移动电话普及率每提高1％将导致财产诈骗犯罪率平均上升约0．76％，而互联网普及率每提高1％将导致财产诈骗犯罪率平均上升约1．37％。因此，随着我国移动通信与互联网信息技术的快速发展，政府必须加快信息网络安全的法治建设工作，加大对电信诈骗与网络诈骗犯罪的打击力度，以维护社会稳定，保障人民的财产安全。 [陈增明, 陈锦然, 刘欣然. 信息化背景下财产诈骗犯罪的实证分析: 基于法经济学与社会学的双重视角 . 东南学术, 2015(1): 98-106.] URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要本文主要基于犯罪经济学的研究框架，利用我国2003—2011年的省级面板数据，实证分析了近年来我国财产诈骗犯罪率持续高速增长的严重社会问题。研究结果表明，移动电话普及率、互联网普及率与我国财产诈骗犯罪率之间具有显著的正相关性，即移动电话与互联网的普及是影响我国财产诈骗犯罪率持续上升的重要因素。具体而言，在控制城市化水平、收入差距等一系列社会经济因素后，移动电话普及率每提高1％将导致财产诈骗犯罪率平均上升约0．76％，而互联网普及率每提高1％将导致财产诈骗犯罪率平均上升约1．37％。因此，随着我国移动通信与互联网信息技术的快速发展，政府必须加快信息网络安全的法治建设工作，加大对电信诈骗与网络诈骗犯罪的打击力度，以维护社会稳定，保障人民的财产安全。
[2]	Li J C, Yu Y M, Wong G T, et al. Understanding and preventing financial fraud against older citizens in Chinese society: Results of a focus group study . International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 2015: 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1108/PIJPSM-12-2014-0137 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要 ABSTRACT Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess senior citizens’ satisfaction with police in Hong Kong. It is intended to answer four research questions: are older citizens satisfied with Hong Kong’s police? Do older citizens coming from different communities with variations in income and crime rates differ from other older citizens in their assessments of the police? to what extent can the respondents’ instrumental, expressive, and legitimacy concerns predict their satisfaction with the police? And is there variation in the predictive power of different kinds of concerns (instrumental, expressive, and legitimacy) on respondents’ satisfaction with fairness, integrity, and effectiveness (respectively)? Design/methodology/approach – Findings of the study were based on survey interviews a sample of 1,061 elderly people aged 65 or above in 2013. A multiple-step sampling method was used to collected data from four types of communities according to the household income level of the residents and the community fraud crime rate. Findings – The paper provides empirical insights about how senior citizens rate their level of satisfaction toward the police. Chinese elderly people’s assessment on the police is found connected with their instrumental, expressive, and legitimacy concerns as well as their educational attainment. Research limitations/implications – Several limitations were acknowledged. First, the self-reported data in this study contained bias because of possible distortion in memory. Second, the cross-sectional data used in this study means that causal inferences are difficult to make. Third, the findings from the study have a limited generalizability because data were collected from a small and non-random sample. Practical implications – Since better educated senior citizens are found more critical when rating police effectiveness in fighting crime, police officers may need to think of suitable channels to understand the expectations of the better educated elderly people and to absorb their ideas for improving policing practice. Originality/value – This study is probably the first attempt of assessing the satisfaction with police of a specific target group, i.e. senior citizens in Hong Kong.
[3]	Jiang Chao, Tang Huanli, Liu Lin. Review of crime geography in China . Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(4): 561-573. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要当前社会犯罪问题严峻,以空间为视角的犯罪地理研究因其独特的综合性在犯罪防控中的作用日益凸显。以中国知网、维普和万方三大数据库中获得的期刊文献为基础,对中国犯罪地理的研究状况进行综合评述。在对国内五大研究主题进行回顾的基础上,围绕"研究主题"和"研究领域"两方面,分析了中国犯罪地理学的发展动态。总体来看,在过去的25年中,中国犯罪地理研究逐渐起步,发展趋势良好,已经吸引了来自地理学、法学与警务管理、城市规划、应用数学等诸多领域的学者关注。尽管研究焦点各有侧重,但始终注重对国外研究和实践经验的引入,并提出了基于综合分析、情境预防、CPTED、PGIS的诸多防控对策。在犯罪时空分布特征、犯罪发生诱因等方面,研究范围宽广,但研究深度有待加强。未来中国犯罪地理学发展任重而道远。学界应充分重视城市犯罪与农村犯罪、犯罪与微观环境的互动关系、犯罪主体的行为空间等研究,并积极探索虚拟犯罪模拟新技术的应用。 [姜超, 唐焕丽, 柳林. 中国犯罪地理研究述评 . 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(4): 561-573.] https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.04.013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要当前社会犯罪问题严峻,以空间为视角的犯罪地理研究因其独特的综合性在犯罪防控中的作用日益凸显。以中国知网、维普和万方三大数据库中获得的期刊文献为基础,对中国犯罪地理的研究状况进行综合评述。在对国内五大研究主题进行回顾的基础上,围绕"研究主题"和"研究领域"两方面,分析了中国犯罪地理学的发展动态。总体来看,在过去的25年中,中国犯罪地理研究逐渐起步,发展趋势良好,已经吸引了来自地理学、法学与警务管理、城市规划、应用数学等诸多领域的学者关注。尽管研究焦点各有侧重,但始终注重对国外研究和实践经验的引入,并提出了基于综合分析、情境预防、CPTED、PGIS的诸多防控对策。在犯罪时空分布特征、犯罪发生诱因等方面,研究范围宽广,但研究深度有待加强。未来中国犯罪地理学发展任重而道远。学界应充分重视城市犯罪与农村犯罪、犯罪与微观环境的互动关系、犯罪主体的行为空间等研究,并积极探索虚拟犯罪模拟新技术的应用。
[4]	Sun Fenghua, Wei Xiao. Geographical study on crime in China . Journal of Liaoning Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2006, 29(4): 493-495. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1735.2006.04.033 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要首先回顾了新中国的犯罪历史,指出其经历了5个犯罪高峰期.其次,从31个省级行政区,9个经济区和3个经济地带分析了犯罪的区域差异性,并阐述了中国犯罪的现状特征.最后采用最小二乘法原理建立线性回归预测模型, 对中国未来犯罪进行了预测,指出未来15年中国的犯罪将持续升高. [孙峰华, 魏晓. 中国犯罪地理研究 . 辽宁师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 29(4): 493-495.] https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1735.2006.04.033 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要首先回顾了新中国的犯罪历史,指出其经历了5个犯罪高峰期.其次,从31个省级行政区,9个经济区和3个经济地带分析了犯罪的区域差异性,并阐述了中国犯罪的现状特征.最后采用最小二乘法原理建立线性回归预测模型, 对中国未来犯罪进行了预测,指出未来15年中国的犯罪将持续升高.
[5]	Brantingham P J, Brantingham P L. Environmental Criminology . Springer New York, 2014. [本文引用: 1]
[6]	Pridemore W A, Grubesic T H. Alcohol outlets and community levels of interpersonal violence spatial density, outlet type, and seriousness of assault . Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 2013, 50(1): 132-159. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810397952 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT This study examined the association between alcohol outlets and violence. Employing Cincinnati block groups as units of analysis, the authors estimated spatially lagged regression models to determine if the variation in spatial density of alcohol outlets is related to the spatial density of simple and aggravated assaults. The authors estimated separate models for off-premise outlets, bars, and restaurants. The results revealed a positive and significant association between outlet density and assault density. This association held for simple and aggravated assaults and for total outlet density and the density of each type of outlet. Further tests showed the outlet-violence association to be stronger for off-premise outlets relative to bars and restaurants and for simple relative to aggravated assaults. Estimation of attributable fractions (AFs) showed that off-premise outlets may account for approximately one-quarter and one-third of simple and aggravated assaults, respectively.
[7]	Sharkey J R, Horel S, Han D, et al. Association between neighborhood need and spatial access to food stores and fast food restaurants in neighborhoods of Colonias . International Journal of Health Geographics, 2009, 8(5): 880-898. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-072X-8-9 URL PMID: 2653484 [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT To determine the extent to which neighborhood needs (socioeconomic deprivation and vehicle availability) are associated with two criteria of food environment access: 1) distance to the nearest food store and fast food restaurant and 2) coverage (number) of food stores and fast food restaurants within a specified network distance of neighborhood areas of colonias, using ground-truthed methods. Data included locational points for 315 food stores and 204 fast food restaurants, and neighborhood characteristics from the 2000 U.S. Census for the 197 census block group (CBG) study area. Neighborhood deprivation and vehicle availability were calculated for each CBG. Minimum distance was determined by calculating network distance from the population-weighted center of each CBG to the nearest supercenter, supermarket, grocery, convenience store, dollar store, mass merchandiser, and fast food restaurant. Coverage was determined by calculating the number of each type of food store and fast food restaurant within a network distance of 1, 3, and 5 miles of each population-weighted CBG center. Neighborhood need and access were examined using Spearman ranked correlations, spatial autocorrelation, and multivariate regression models that adjusted for population density. Overall, neighborhoods had best access to convenience stores, fast food restaurants, and dollar stores. After adjusting for population density, residents in neighborhoods with increased deprivation had to travel a significantly greater distance to the nearest supercenter or supermarket, grocery store, mass merchandiser, dollar store, and pharmacy for food items. The results were quite different for association of need with the number of stores within 1 mile. Deprivation was only associated with fast food restaurants; greater deprivation was associated with fewer fast food restaurants within 1 mile. CBG with greater lack of vehicle availability had slightly better access to more supercenters or supermarkets, grocery stores, or fast food restaurants. Increasing deprivation was associated with decreasing numbers of grocery stores, mass merchandisers, dollar stores, and fast food restaurants within 3 miles. It is important to understand not only the distance that people must travel to the nearest store to make a purchase, but also how many shopping opportunities they have in order to compare price, quality, and selection. Future research should examine how spatial access to the food environment influences the utilization of food stores and fast food restaurants, and the strategies used by low-income families to obtain food for the household.
[8]	Lee A M, Gainey R, Triplett R. Banking options and neighborhood crime: Does fringe banking increase neighborhood crime . American Journal of Criminal Justice, 2014, 39(39): 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-013-9228-0 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT In the past few years, scholars interested in neighborhoods and crime have turned their attention to the role of neighborhood organizations. Recently, (Kubrin, Squires, Graves, and Ousey, Criminology & Public Policy, 10(2), 437–466, 2011) examined the impact of payday lenders on neighborhood crime. They found that there is a significant relationship between payday lenders, and both violent and property crime rates. The current research builds upon their work by exploring banking options in the city of Norfolk, Virginia. Findings indicate that the presence of payday lenders is significantly related to property crime in 2010 and violent crime in 2010, though the findings for violent crimes are not robust. Also there is a mild suppression effect predicting violent crime rates once socioeconomic deprivation is controlled. Pawn shops are not significantly related to either property or violent crimes. Interestingly banks are significant positive predictors of both property and violent crimes. The difference between the findings here and those of (Kubrin, Squires, Graves, and Ousey, Criminology & Public Policy, 10(2), 437–466, 2011) are discussed.
[9]	Steenbeek W, Volker B, Flap H, et al. Local businesses as attractors or preventers of neighborhood disorder . Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 2012, 49(2): 213-248. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810397948 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT While businesses may attract potential offenders and thus be conducive to disorder, the number of employees could offset this by exercising social control on offenders. This study uses data from different sources to test this expectation across 278 Dutch neighborhoods in the four largest cities of the Netherlands, using multivariate multilevel analysis to disentangle individual perception differences of disorder and neighborhood effects. Attention is paid to traditional explanations of disorder (i.e., poverty, residential mobility, and ethnic heterogeneity). Results show a positive relationship between business presence and neighborhood disorder. We do not find consistent results of the number of employees (i.e., bigger businesses are not always better or worse). Our research demonstrates that the presence of neighborhood businesses could rival the effects of social disorganization theory.
[10]	Stucky T D, Ottensmann J R. Land use and violent crime . Criminology, 2009, 47(4): 1223-1264. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00174.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Although research has shown specific land uses to be related to crime, systematic investigation of land uses and violent crime has been less common. This study systematically examines links between land uses and violent crime and assesses whether such links are conditioned by socioeconomic disadvantage. We employ geocoded Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data from the Indianapolis police department and information on 30 categories of land use and demographic information from the 2000 U.S. Census. We use land use variables to predict violent crime counts in 1,000 1,000-feet grid cells using negative binomial regression models. Results indicate that, net of other variables, specific land uses predict variation in counts for individual violent crimes and aggregate rates. Some nonresidential land uses are associated with higher violent crime counts, whereas others are associated with lower counts. Specific land uses also condition the effects of socioeconomic disadvantage on violent crime. The implications for routine activity/opportunity and social disorganization/collective efficacy theories of crime are discussed.
[11]	Bernasco W, Block R. Robberies in Chicago: A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points . Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 2011, 48(1): 33-57. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810384135 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Abstract The effects of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points on the distribution of street robberies across the nearly 25,000 census blocks of Chicago are examined. The analysis includes a wide array of activities and facilities that are expected to attract criminals and generate crime. These include a variety of legal and illegal businesses and infrastructural accessibility facilitators. In addition to these crime attractors and generators, the role of the presence of motivated offenders’ anchor points, as measured by offenders’ residence and gang activity, is assessed. The analysis also includes crime attractors, crime generators, and offender anchor points in adjacent census blocks. The findings demonstrate the strength of the effects of crime generators and attractors and offender anchor points on the frequency of street robbery at the census block level.
[12]	Weisburd D, Groff E, Yang S M. The Criminology of place: Street segments and our understanding of the crime problem . Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews, 2015, 44(2): 277-278.
[13]	Levine N, Wachs M, Shirazi E. Crime at bus stops: A study of environmental factors . Journal of Architectural & Planning Research, 1986, 3(4): 339-361. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013124586019001006 URL 摘要 ABSTRACT Conducted telephone interviews with 1,088 adult residents (aged 16 yrs and older) of west-central Los Angeles, California, and observed activity at 3 particularly dangerous bus stops to estimate the amount of bus crime and its impact on residents. The study was conducted by the Institute for Social Science Research at the University of California at Los Angeles. Ss were administered a questionnaire concerning bus usage, experience with crime, and attitudes toward bus crime prevention. The unique nature of the bus stop environment with regard to crime is discussed, and the importance of locational and environmental information when planning the development of bus stops is emphasized. Suggestions for future research on environmental correlates of public crime are presented. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
[14]	Smith M J, Clarke R V. Crime and public transport . Crime & Justice, 2000, 27(1): 169-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1359-1789(98)00011-1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Abstract Crime in public transport covers a bewildering variety of offenses committed in forms of transport including trams, buses, subways, commuter trams, taxis, and jitneys. The targets of crime can be the system itself (as in vandalism or fare evasion), employees (as in assaults on ticket collectors), or passengers (as in pickpocketing or overcharging). A distinction must be made between crimes facilitated by overcrowding and by lack of supervision. Both are the result of financial constraints, plaguing all forms of public transport, which result in too little space for passengers at busy periods and not enough staff to supervise vehicles and facilities at other times. Many successful measures have been reported in dealing with specific crimes. More generally, much crime can be "designed out" of new subway systems and older train and bus stations, and order maintenance may be an effective transit policing strategy. Research has been less successful in determining whether transit systems spread crime from high- to lower-crime areas and whether some transit systems and forms of transport are much less safe than others are. Little success in deliberately reducing fear has been achieved. The security challenges presented by new light rail systems and forms of taxi service may not differ greatly from those encountered at present.
[15]	Wallace D, Wallace R. Life and death in upper manhattan and the bronx: Toward an evolutionary perspective on catastrophic social change . Environment & Planning A, 2000, 32(7): 1245-1266. https://doi.org/10.1068/a32208 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 During the 1970s, poor neighborhoods of New York City lost significant proportions of housing and associated community structure to a policy-driven process of contagious fire and building abandonment. The south Bronx was among the most heavily damaged areas. Here we analyze and compare the interrelationships between socioeconomic factors, housing, demographics, and two health outcomes (low-weight birth rate and homicide rate) in the southwest Bronx and in Upper Manhattan (Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood), using standard statistical methods as well as the Ives amplification factor employed by ecologists. Upper Manhattan showed much stronger and less 'resilient' relationships between these factors than the southwest Bronx, that is, a system of tight ties which amplifies external perturbations. It indicates vulnerability to impacts such as economic decline, changes in municipal service provision, and 'welfare reform'. We hypothesize that the looser, and more resilient, system of the southwest Bronx and the brittle system of Upper Manhattan arose from their different histories of catastrophic urban decay, a highly 'path dependent' evolutionary process affecting a social system, subjecting it to extreme selection pressures on the underlying social network structure. The difference has profound policy implications.
[16]	Andresen M A. Location quotients, ambient populations, and the spatial analysis of crime in Vancouver, Canada . Environment & Planning A, 1994, 178(2): 919-929. [本文引用: 1]
[17]	Elffers H. Analysing neighbourhood influence in criminology . Statistica Neerlandica, 2003, 57(3): 347-367. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9574.00235 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT Neighbourhood influence in criminology can be conceptualised both as pertaining to the influence of characteristics of a neighbourhood on its inhabitants, and to the mutual influence of characteristics of adjacent neighbourhoods on each other. The first conceptualisation asks for multilevel analysis, the second one for one of several spatial dependency (spatial autocorrelation) methods. Various models in both traditions are discussed and illustrated with data on victimisation and on burglary.
[18]	Haberman C P, Ratcliffe J H. Testing for temporally differentiated relationships among potentially criminogenic places and census block street robbery counts . Criminology, 2015, 53(3): 457-483. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12076 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 This study examined street robbery patterns in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from the years 2009 to 2011 to determine whether the effects of potentially criminogenic places are different across different periods of the day. Census block (N = 13,164) street robbery counts across four periods (6:45 a.m. to 9:59 a.m., 10:00 a.m. to 4:29 p.m., 4:30 p.m. to 9:14 p.m., and 9:15 p.m. to 6:44 a.m.) were modeled with 12 different potentially criminogenic places, 3 measures of illicit markets, 4 compositional control variables, and spatially lagged versions of the 12 potentially criminogenic places and population using simultaneously estimated negative binomial regression models. Differences in the magnitudes of the parameter estimates across the time periods were assessed with Wald tests. Overall, the patterns across the four models were mostly consistent with the effects hypothesized based on the study's crime pattern theory and time‐geography theoretical frame; yet differences in the magnitudes of the coefficients were less pronounced than hypothesized. Overall, the results provide moderate support for the crime pattern theory and time‐geography explanation of spatial‐temporal robbery patterns; however, numerous points are raised for future crime and place research.
[19]	Zhao Tingting, Chen Peng, Ma Wei. Spatial analysis to the crimes in Beijing: Based on GIS techniques . Geomatics & Spatial Information Technology, 2014(8): 19-22. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1672-5867.2014.08.006 URL 摘要为了有效地在复杂城市环境中预防犯罪，本文基于地理信息系统空间统计方法和环境犯罪学原理，对北京市几类典型治安案件的空间分布特征进行了研究。研究结果发现，基于区域面的治安案件空间分布具有不均衡的特点，特别是按街道分布的治安案件热点区域集中在二环以外；具体的治安案件热点区域主要集中在中关村商务区、六里桥和木樨园客运站等少数地段；空间区位分析结果则证明了诈骗与扒窃类治安案件在二环以内的区域比例异常偏高，而抢劫与盗窃案件则主要分布在二环以外区域。 [赵婷婷, 陈鹏, 马伟. 基于GIS的北京市治安案件空间特征分析 . 测绘与空间地理信息, 2014(8): 19-22.] https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1672-5867.2014.08.006 URL 摘要为了有效地在复杂城市环境中预防犯罪，本文基于地理信息系统空间统计方法和环境犯罪学原理，对北京市几类典型治安案件的空间分布特征进行了研究。研究结果发现，基于区域面的治安案件空间分布具有不均衡的特点，特别是按街道分布的治安案件热点区域集中在二环以外；具体的治安案件热点区域主要集中在中关村商务区、六里桥和木樨园客运站等少数地段；空间区位分析结果则证明了诈骗与扒窃类治安案件在二环以内的区域比例异常偏高，而抢劫与盗窃案件则主要分布在二环以外区域。
[20]	Cracolici M F, Uberti T E. Geographical distribution of crime in Italian provinces: A spatial econometric analysis . Jahrbuch Für Regional wissenschaft, 2009, 29(1): 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10037-008-0031-1 Magsci 摘要 <a name="Abs1"></a>In the last years, the increasing level of criminality that has characterized the modern economies has drawn the attention of sociologists and economists in order to identify the causes leading to commit criminal offences. The aim of the paper is to investigate the causes of crime activity in 103 Italian provinces (NUTS3 regions) for the years 1999 and 2003. The Italian crime phenomenon is characterized by some stylized facts: high spatial and time variability of crime activities, and presence of ‘organized crime’ (e.g. Mafia and Camorra) localized in some local territorial areas. <div class="AbstractPara"> <div class="">Using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), the paper firstly explores the spatial structure and distribution of four different typologies of crimes: murders, thefts, frauds and squeezes. ESDA allows us to detect some important geographical dimensions and to distinguish crucial micro- and macro- territorial aspects of offences. Further, on the basis of Becker-Ehrlich model, a spatial cross-sectional model – including deterrence, economic and socio-demographic variables – has been performed to investigate the determinants of Italian crime in 1999 and 2003 and its ‘neighbouring’ effects, measured in terms of ‘geographical’ and ‘relational’ proximities.
[21]	Wilcox P, Eck J E. Criminology of the unpopular . Criminology & Public Policy, 2011, 10(10): 473-482. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2011.00721.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 First page of article
[22]	Wikström P O H, Ceccato V, Hardie B. Activity fields and the dynamics of crime advancing knowledge about the role of the environment in crime causation . Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2010, 26(1): 55-87. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-009-9083-9 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Our current understanding of the role of the social environment in crime causation is at best rudimentary. Guided by the theoretical framework of Situational Action Theory, and using data from the ESRC financed Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Development Study (PADS+), this paper aims to propose how we can better theorise and study the role of the social environment, particularly the person and place interaction, in crime causation. We will introduce, and illustrate the usefulness of, a space–time budget methodology as a means of capturing people’s exposure to settings and describing their activity fields. We will suggest and demonstrate that, combined with a small area community survey and psychometric measures of individual characteristics, a space–time budget is a powerful tool for advancing our knowledge about the role of the social environment, and its interaction with people’s crime propensity, in crime causation. Our unique data allows us to study the convergence in time and space of crime propensity, criminogenic exposure and crime events. As far as we are aware, such an analysis has never before been carried out. The findings show that there are (a) clear associations between young people’s activity fields and their exposure to criminogenic settings, (b) clear associations between their exposure to criminogenic settings and their crime involvement, and, crucially, (c) that the influence of criminogenic exposure depends on a person’s crime propensity. Having a crime-averse morality and strong ability to exercise self-control appears to make young people practically situationally immune to the influences of criminogenic settings, while having a crime-prone morality and poor ability to exercise self-control appears to make young people situationally vulnerable to the influences of criminogenic settings.
[23]	Newton A, Felson M. Editorial: Crime patterns in time and space: The dynamics of crime opportunities in urban areas . Crime Science, 2015, 4(1): 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-015-0025-6 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT The routine activity approach and associated crime pattern theory emphasise how crime emerges from spatio-temporal routines. In order to understand this crime should be studied in both space and time. However, the bulk of research into crime patterns and related activities has investigated the spatial distributions of crime, neglecting the temporal dimension. Specifically, disaggregation of crime by place and by time, for example hour of day, day of week, month of year, season, or school day versus none school day, is extremely relevant to theory. Modern data make such spatio-temporal disaggregation increasingly feasible, as exemplified in this special issue. First, much larger data files allow disaggregation of crime data into temporal and spatial slices. Second, new forms of data are generated by modern technologies, allowing innovative and new forms of analyses. Crime pattern analyses and routine activity inquiries are now able to explore avenues not previously available. The unique collection of nine papers in this thematic issue specifically examine spatio-temporal patterns of crime to; demonstrate the value of this approach for advancing knowledge in the field; consider how this informs our theoretical understanding of the manifestations of crime in time and space; to consider the prevention implications of this; and to raise awareness of the need for further spatio-temporal research into crime events
[24]	Ye X, Xu X, Lee J, et al. Space-time interaction of residential burglaries in Wuhan, China . Applied Geography, 2015, 60: 210-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.11.022 URL 摘要 Borrowing methods from epidemiology, studies of spatiotemporal regularities of crime have been booming in various industrialized countries. However, few such attempts are empirical studies using crime data in developing countries due to a lack of data availability. Utilizing a recent burglary dataset in Wuhan, the fourth largest city in China, current research applied the sequential kernel density estimation and the space–time K -function methods to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of hotspots of residential burglaries. The results show that, both spatial and spatiotemporal clustering exists. The hotspots were relatively stable over time. The space–time clustering, however, shows significant concentrations both in space and over time. In addition, analytic results show significant effects of distance decay in terms of occurrences of burglary incidents along the spatial and temporal dimensions. Moreover, findings from the research provide critical information on the space–time rhythm of crime, and therefore can be utilized in crime prevention practice. Finally, the implications of the findings and limitations are discussed.
[25]	Andresen M A, Malleson N. Crime seasonality and its variations across space . Applied Geography, 2013, 43: 25-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.06.007 URL Magsci 摘要 Investigations into the seasonal patterns of crime date back 180 years to the beginnings of spatial criminology. This original research by Adolphe Quetelet, and much subsequent work, has shown that various crimes have a seasonal component, but the strength and timing of the respective seasonalities vary by crime type. In this paper, we first investigate the existence of seasonality for a number of different crime types, but also the variations of seasonality across space. We find that not only do the various crime types exhibit seasonal patterns, but those seasonal patterns have relatively distinct spatial patterns. This has implications for theory and policy. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
[26]	Xu Chong, Liu Lin, Zhou Suhong, et al. The spatio-temporal patterns of street robbery in DP Peninsula . Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(12): 1714-1723. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201312011 URL Magsci 摘要选取H市中心城区DP半岛作为研究区域，以岛上2006-2011 年发生的街头抢劫案件（共373 起）作为研究对象，将DP半岛内街头抢劫案件的时空分布特征分别从宏观和局部微观两个尺度层面进行系统的分析。首先，对岛上的街头抢劫案件按年、月和小时进行统计分析，总结其在不同时间尺度上的变化规律：2007 年开始的严打使案件数量逐年减少，直到2010 年才略有回升；春节期间（二月前后）的案件数量明显高于其他月份；晚上22:00-23:00 期间是案件高发时段。其次，利用Kernel 密度方法对研究区街头抢劫犯罪的宏观空间分布进行整体的辨别，剥离出犯罪热点空间分布，分析热点与道路网和土地利用的关联性，结果表明热点多分布于主干道、通达性高的节点或土地利用混合度高的地方。最后，选出4 个最主要的热点从微观尺度进行分析，PAI 指数表明这4 个热点在时间上是稳定的，从2006 年到2011 年一直存在。依据“热点时空类型矩阵”的时间分布和空间分布模式，将这4 个稳定热点归类到不同微观时空模式，并对每类模式下的街头抢劫犯罪提出有针对性的防控对策，以便优化警力资源的配置、最大限度抑制和减少犯罪的发生。 [徐冲, 柳林, 周素红, 等. DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式 . 地理学报, 2013, 68(12): 1714-1723.] https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201312011 URL Magsci 摘要选取H市中心城区DP半岛作为研究区域，以岛上2006-2011 年发生的街头抢劫案件（共373 起）作为研究对象，将DP半岛内街头抢劫案件的时空分布特征分别从宏观和局部微观两个尺度层面进行系统的分析。首先，对岛上的街头抢劫案件按年、月和小时进行统计分析，总结其在不同时间尺度上的变化规律：2007 年开始的严打使案件数量逐年减少，直到2010 年才略有回升；春节期间（二月前后）的案件数量明显高于其他月份；晚上22:00-23:00 期间是案件高发时段。其次，利用Kernel 密度方法对研究区街头抢劫犯罪的宏观空间分布进行整体的辨别，剥离出犯罪热点空间分布，分析热点与道路网和土地利用的关联性，结果表明热点多分布于主干道、通达性高的节点或土地利用混合度高的地方。最后，选出4 个最主要的热点从微观尺度进行分析，PAI 指数表明这4 个热点在时间上是稳定的，从2006 年到2011 年一直存在。依据“热点时空类型矩阵”的时间分布和空间分布模式，将这4 个稳定热点归类到不同微观时空模式，并对每类模式下的街头抢劫犯罪提出有针对性的防控对策，以便优化警力资源的配置、最大限度抑制和减少犯罪的发生。
[27]	Rey, S J, E A Mack, J. Koschinsky. Exploratory space-time analysis of burglary patterns . Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2012, 28(3): 509-531. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-011-9151-9 Magsci 摘要 This paper introduces two new methods for the exploratory analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of residential burglary patterns. The first is a conditional spatial Markov chain which considers the extent to which a location's probability of experiencing a residential burglary in a future period is related to the prevalence of residential burglaries in its surrounding neighborhood in an initial period. The second measure extends this conditional perspective to examine the joint evolution of residential burglary in a location and its surrounding neighborhood. These methods are applied to a case study of residential burglary patterns in Mesa, Arizona over the period October 2005 through December 2009. Strong patterns of spatial clustering of burglary activity are present in each year, and this clustering is found to have an important influence on both the conditional and joint evolution of burglary activity across space and time.
[28]	Grubesic T H, Mack E A. Spatio-temporal interaction of urban crime . Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2008, 24(3): 285-306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-008-9047-5 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要 <a name="Abs1"></a>Over the past decade, a renewed interest in the analysis of crime hot-spots has emerged in the social and behavioral sciences. Spurred by improvements in computing power, data visualization and geographic information systems, numerous innovative approaches have materialized for identifying areas of elevated crime in urban environments. Unfortunately, many hot-spot analysis techniques treat the spatial and temporal aspects of crime as distinct entities, thus ignoring the necessary interaction of space and time to produce criminal opportunities. The purpose of this paper is to explore the utility of statistical measures for identifying and comparing the spatio-temporal footprints of robbery, burglary and assault. Functional and visual comparisons for spatio-temporal clusters are analyzed across a range of space–time values using a comprehensive database of crime events for Cincinnati, Ohio. Empirical results suggest that robbery, burglary and assault have dramatically different spatio-temporal signatures.
[29]	Sui D Z. GeoJournal: A new focus on spatially integrated social sciences and humanities . Geojournal, 2010, 75: 1-2. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-010-9341-2 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 No Abstract available for this article.
[30]	Feng Jian, Huang Linshan, Dong Ying, et al. Research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and mechanism of urban crime: A case study of property crime in Beijing . Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(12): 1645-1656. https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201212006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要城市犯罪的时空模式是地理学“格局”和“过程”研究的重要课题。本文以北京城八区财产类犯罪为研究对象,利用GIS工具获取和处理空间数据,探讨城市犯罪的时空格局和时空模式,并建立时空机制模型。研究发现：北京城市犯罪总体上呈现多中心分布格局,在商业繁华地带和对外交通运输区存在明显的高强度带；各种犯罪类型空间格局既有共同性又有差异性；城市犯罪嫌疑人数量存在季节分异特点,但同一区域的犯罪地点数目具有一定的稳定性；就时空机制而言,场所的时空特征作用于财产犯罪参与者,进而作用于犯罪要素并影响犯罪实施成功与否,而不同类型的财产犯罪对场所时空特征要求不同,这些要求一旦与北京城市环境的特有属性耦合,便产生犯罪高发地段和高发时段,最终影响城市空间结构特点。 [冯健, 黄琳珊, 董颖, 等. 城市犯罪时空特征与机制: 以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例 . 地理学报, 2012, 67(12): 1645-1656.] https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201212006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要城市犯罪的时空模式是地理学“格局”和“过程”研究的重要课题。本文以北京城八区财产类犯罪为研究对象,利用GIS工具获取和处理空间数据,探讨城市犯罪的时空格局和时空模式,并建立时空机制模型。研究发现：北京城市犯罪总体上呈现多中心分布格局,在商业繁华地带和对外交通运输区存在明显的高强度带；各种犯罪类型空间格局既有共同性又有差异性；城市犯罪嫌疑人数量存在季节分异特点,但同一区域的犯罪地点数目具有一定的稳定性；就时空机制而言,场所的时空特征作用于财产犯罪参与者,进而作用于犯罪要素并影响犯罪实施成功与否,而不同类型的财产犯罪对场所时空特征要求不同,这些要求一旦与北京城市环境的特有属性耦合,便产生犯罪高发地段和高发时段,最终影响城市空间结构特点。
[31]	Reisig M D, Pratt T C, Holtfreter K. Perceived risk of internet theft victimization . Criminal Justice & Behavior, 2009, 36(4): 369-384. [本文引用: 1]
[32]	Lane G W, Sui D Z. Geographies of identity theft in the U.S.: Understanding spatial and demographic patterns, 2002-2006 . GeoJournal, 2010, 75(1): 43-55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-010-9342-1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Identity theft is among the fastest growing white-collar crimes in the United States, although official recognition of it as a criminal act is a relatively recent development. Utilizing theoretical framework established in crime geography, GIS mapping and spatial statistics are employed to conduct a spatial analysis of identity theft in the U.S. from 2002 to 2006. Distinct regional variations, such as high rates in the western and southwestern states, and low rates in New England and the central plains states, are identified for identity theft. Significant spatial patterns of identity theft victims alongside social demographic variables are also revealed in order to better understand the regional patterns that may suggest underlying social causes contributing to identity theft. Potential social variables, such as race/ethnicity and urban ural populations, are shown to have similar patterns that may be directly associated with U.S. identity theft victims.
[33]	Turanovic J J, Reisig M D. Risky lifestyles, low self-control, and violent victimization across gendered pathways to crime . Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2015, 31(2): 183-206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-014-9230-9 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 The present study addresses whether unique or general processes lead to victimization across gendered pathways to crime. Specifically, the effects of low self-control and risky lifestyles—specified as
[34]	Davies T, Johnson S D. Examining the relationship between road structure and burglary risk via quantitative network analysis . Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2014, 31(3): 1-27.
[35]	Pratt T, Holtfreter K, Reisig M. Routine online activity and internet fraud targeting: Extending the Generality of Routine Activity Theory . Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 2010, 47(3): 267-296. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810365903 URL 摘要 ABSTRACT Routine activity theory predicts that changes in legitimate opportunity structures (e.g., technology) can increase the convergence of motivated offenders and suitable targets in the absence of capable guardianship. The Internet has fundamentally changed consumer practices and has simultaneously expanded opportunities for cyber-fraudsters to target online consumers. The authors draw on routine activity theory and consumer behavior research to understand how personal characteristics and online routines increase people exposure to motivated offenders. Using a representative sample of 922 adults from a statewide survey in Florida, the results of the regression models are consistent with prior research in that sociodemographic characteristics shape routine online activity (e.g., spending time online and making online purchases). Furthermore, indicators of routine online activity fully mediate the effect of sociodemographic characteristics on the likelihood of being targeted for fraud online. These findings support the routine activity perspective and provide a theoretically informed direction for situational crime prevention in a largely unexplored consumer context.
[36]	Breetzke G D. Modeling violent crime rates: A test of social disorganization in the city of Tshwane, South Africa . Journal of Criminal Justice, 2010, 38(38): 446-452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2010.04.013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Tests of social disorganization theory are commonplace in international criminological literature. Indeed a plethora of studies had emerged over the past seventy years examining and extending the theory throughout much of the developed world. The testing, however, of the landmark theory's key propositions in Africa in general, and South Africa in particular, is in its infancy. This study aimed to address this shortcoming by analyzing associations between various census measures of social disorganization and violent crime rates in the city of Tshwane, South Africa. Overall, marginal support was found for the social disorganization theory: violent crime in Tshwane was associated with certain measures of socioeconomic deprivation, and residential mobility. The study not only demonstrated the applicability of certain elements of Western criminological theory to contemporary urban South Africa, but also revealed important differences in the ecological dynamics of violent crime across differing cultural contexts.
[37]	Wu Zongxian. The Western Criminology.Beijing: Law Press, 2006. URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 "　　本书作为司法部法学教材编辑部约请撰写和编审的高等学校法学教材，在1999年由法律出版社出版之后，即得到了很多犯罪学教学和研究人员的肯定，被多所高等院校列入教学计划和培养大纲，并作为犯罪学课程的教材或者教学参考书，也成为研究生入学考试的重要参考书之一。　　作为国内第一本西方犯罪学教材，本书不仅详尽介绍了西方犯罪学的基本问题，而且全面论述了西方犯罪学的主要理论流派和学说观点，包括古典学派、实证学派、社会学派以及19世纪的社会犯罪学学说、现代犯罪生物学理论、犯罪心理学理论、现代社会学理论和其他犯罪学学说与研究。其主要特点有五：一是精华荟萃，简明扼要地介绍了西方犯罪学研究中最重要、最精彩的理论成果；二是内容准确，其绝大多数内容取自外文资料，尽可能地保证准确理解原意；三是资料翔实，所论述的内容详细而确实，有充足的资料作为依据；四是写作规范，篇章结构合理，遵循注释规则，适当保留原文；五是表达通俗，尽可能用浅显的文字阐释深刻的内容。第二版在内容、形式、质量等方面有进一步的改进。" [吴宗宪. 西方犯罪学. 北京: 法律出版社, 2006.] URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 "　　本书作为司法部法学教材编辑部约请撰写和编审的高等学校法学教材，在1999年由法律出版社出版之后，即得到了很多犯罪学教学和研究人员的肯定，被多所高等院校列入教学计划和培养大纲，并作为犯罪学课程的教材或者教学参考书，也成为研究生入学考试的重要参考书之一。　　作为国内第一本西方犯罪学教材，本书不仅详尽介绍了西方犯罪学的基本问题，而且全面论述了西方犯罪学的主要理论流派和学说观点，包括古典学派、实证学派、社会学派以及19世纪的社会犯罪学学说、现代犯罪生物学理论、犯罪心理学理论、现代社会学理论和其他犯罪学学说与研究。其主要特点有五：一是精华荟萃，简明扼要地介绍了西方犯罪学研究中最重要、最精彩的理论成果；二是内容准确，其绝大多数内容取自外文资料，尽可能地保证准确理解原意；三是资料翔实，所论述的内容详细而确实，有充足的资料作为依据；四是写作规范，篇章结构合理，遵循注释规则，适当保留原文；五是表达通俗，尽可能用浅显的文字阐释深刻的内容。第二版在内容、形式、质量等方面有进一步的改进。"
[38]	Cohen L E, Felson M. Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach . American Sociological Review, 1979, 44(4): 588-608. https://doi.org/10.2307/2094589 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 It is hypothesized that the dispersion of activites away from households and families increases the opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates. Data on changes in such variables as labor force participation and household composition are used to support the hypothesis. (Author/RLV)
[39]	Cohen L E, Land K C. Property crime rates in the United States: A macrodynamic analysis, 1947-1977, with ex ante forecasts for the mid 1980s . American Journal of Sociology, 1980, 86(1): 90-118. https://doi.org/10.1086/227204 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 This paper presents several macrodynamic social indicator models of post-World War II trends in robbery, burglary, and automobile theft rates for the United States. A theory of the ways in wich changes in criminal opportunity affect these Index Crime property crime rates is deveoped. Definitions and postulates are presented from which we derive a main theorem which states that, other things being equal, a decrease in the density of the population in physical locations that are normally sites of primary groups should lead to an increase in criminal opportunities and hence in property crime rates. Corollaries to the main theorem are presented and tested after operationalization of relevant independent and control variables such as the residential population density ratio, the unemployment rate, age structure, total consumer expenditures, and automobiles per capita. Stochastic difference equations, used to evaluate the theory,indicate that the models implied by the theory exhibit good statistical fit to the recorded property crime rates in question over the 26-year estimation period, 1947-72. In addition, these models provide reasonably accurate expost forecasts of observed annual property crime rates over the five-year forecast period, 1973 through 1977. The paper concludes with a discussion of ex ante forecasted equilibrium levels of the three property crime rates for the mid-1980s implied by the estimated models. The forecasts indicate that the robbery and automobile theft rates should drop00 substantially in the 1980s from their recent levels, whereas the burglary rate may continue to grow or at least drop less.
[40]	Turanovic J J, Pratt T C. "Can't Stop, Won't Stop": Self-control, risky lifestyles, and repeat victimization . Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2014, 30(1): 29-56. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-012-9188-4 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Drawing from lifestyle-routine activity and self-control perspectives, the causal mechanisms responsible for repeat victimization are explored. Specifically, the present study investigates: (1) the ex
[41]	Policastro C, Payne B K. Can you hear me now? Telemarketing fraud victimization and lifestyles . American Journal of Criminal Justice, 2015, 40(3): 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-014-9279-x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Researchers have used lifestyle theory to delineate patterns surrounding various forms of victimization. Much of this research focuses on conventional crimes and demonstrates a seemingly consistent pattern in terms of victim age: older victim lifestyles reduce their risk for conventional victimization, but may increase their risk for other forms of victimization. Using lifestyle/routine activity theory as a guide, this study explores whether the lifestyles and activities of older persons are tied to their risk of being targeted for telemarketing fraud. Our findings suggest that victimization risk for telemarketing fraud does not vary across the life-course, and that lifestyles of older persons are not tied to telemarketing fraud victimization. Factors tied to victimization include neighborhood disorder and being employed part-time. Implications are provided.
[42]	Wolfe S E, Marcum C D, Higgins G E, et al. Routine cell phone activity and exposure to sext messages: Extending the generality of routine activity theory and exploring the etiology of a risky teenage behavior . Crime & Delinquency, 2014, 62(5): 614-644. [本文引用: 1]
[43]	Reyns B W, Henson B. The thief with a thousand faces and the victim with none: Identifying determinants for online identity theft victimization with routine activity theory . International Journal of Offender Therapy & Comparative Criminology, 2015, 60(10): 1119-1139. https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X15572861 URL PMID: 25733745 [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Available evidence suggests that identity theft is a growing problem that has significant consequences for victims, not the least of which is billions of dollars in financial losses. However, very little is known about the correlates or causes of identity theft victimization. Utilizing a nationally representative sample of individuals from the Canadian General Social Survey, the current study attempts to address this deficiency by examining the link between victims' online routine activities and their online identity theft victimization. It was found that certain routine activities directly influence the likelihood of experiencing identity theft. Potential research and policy implications also are discussed.
[44]	Reyns B W, Henson B, Fisher B S. Being pursued online: Applying cyberlifestyle-routine activities theory to cyberstalking victimization . Criminal Justice & Behavior, 2011, 38(11): 1149-1169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854811421448 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT Building upon Eck and Clarke’s (2003) ideas for explaining crimes in which there is no face-to-face contact between victims and offenders, the authors developed an adapted lifestyle–routine activities theory. Traditional conceptions of place-based environments depend on the convergence of victims and offenders in time and physical space to explain opportunities for victimization. With their proposed cyberlifestyle–routine activities theory, the authors moved beyond this conceptualization to explain opportunities for victimization in cyberspace environments where traditional conceptions of time and space are less relevant. Cyberlifestyle–routine activities theory was tested using a sample of 974 college students on a particular type of cybervictimization—cyberstalking. The study’s findings provide support for the adapted theoretical perspective. Specifically, variables measuring online exposure to risk, online proximity to motivated offenders, online guardianship, online target attractiveness, and online deviance were significant predictors of cyberstalking victimization. Implications for advancing cyberlifestyle–routine activities theory are discussed.
[45]	Sui D Z. GeoJournal: A new focus on spatially integrated social sciences and humanities . Geojournal, 2010, 75: 1-2. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-010-9341-2 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 No Abstract available for this article.
[46]	Mears D P, Reisig M D, Scaggs S, et al. Efforts to reduce consumer fraud victimization among the elderly: The effect of information access on program awareness and contact . Crime & Delinquency, 2014, 62(9): 1235-1259. [本文引用: 1]
[47]	Carole A, Cohen M D. Consumer fraud and the elderly . Journal of Gerontological Social Work, 2006, 46(3/4): 137-44. https://doi.org/10.1300/J083v46n03_08 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Abstract Financial abuse is the most common type of elder abuse. Consumer fraud, a form of financial abuse perpetrated by criminals who do not know the victim, is not well studied. Seniors represent a disproportionate percentage of the victims of consumer fraud. This article reviews the data on the prevalence of consumer fraud (primarily telemarketing scams) in Canada. It examines the reasons why Canadian seniors are targets of fraud. It also describes many unique initiatives developed at the local, provincial and national level in Canada to educate seniors and those who care for them about the types of scams and the risks of fraud.
[48]	Reyns B W, Henson B, Fisher B S. Being pursued online: Applying cyberlifestyle-routine activities theory to cyberstalking victimization . Criminal Justice & Behavior, 2011, 38(11): 1149-1169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854811421448 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT Building upon Eck and Clarke’s (2003) ideas for explaining crimes in which there is no face-to-face contact between victims and offenders, the authors developed an adapted lifestyle–routine activities theory. Traditional conceptions of place-based environments depend on the convergence of victims and offenders in time and physical space to explain opportunities for victimization. With their proposed cyberlifestyle–routine activities theory, the authors moved beyond this conceptualization to explain opportunities for victimization in cyberspace environments where traditional conceptions of time and space are less relevant. Cyberlifestyle–routine activities theory was tested using a sample of 974 college students on a particular type of cybervictimization—cyberstalking. The study’s findings provide support for the adapted theoretical perspective. Specifically, variables measuring online exposure to risk, online proximity to motivated offenders, online guardianship, online target attractiveness, and online deviance were significant predictors of cyberstalking victimization. Implications for advancing cyberlifestyle–routine activities theory are discussed.
[49]	Ceng Lin, Wang Fahui, Xiu Chunliang. Spatial analysis of bank branches and its relationship to popu-economic activities: A case study in Changchun central urban area . Human Geography, 2015, 30(4): 72-78. URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要运用Arc GIS平均最近邻、核密度估计和波段集统计等方法,考察长春市中心城区银行网点空间特征和规律,以及银行网点与人口和主要经济活动的空间关系,发现：1银行网点呈明显集聚分布特征,这种集聚主要分布于商业和商务中心及新建中高档住宅小区密集地段;2银行网点核密度与其到CBD距离呈负相关,并随距离地增加呈对数衰减;3银行网点密度与人口—经济活动密度在街道甚至更小空间尺度上存在较显著的正相关;4银行网点核密度与大型商业网点和主要写字楼核密度均呈较强正相关,而与大型制造业企业核密度几乎不存在相关性,说明商业和楼宇经济空间特征对城市内部银行网点布局具有深刻影响,而制造业的微观区位对银行网点布局几乎无影响。 [程林, 王法辉, 修春亮. 城市银行网点及其与人口—经济活动关系的空间分析: 以长春市中心城区为例 . 人文地理, 2015, 30(4): 72-78.] URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要运用Arc GIS平均最近邻、核密度估计和波段集统计等方法,考察长春市中心城区银行网点空间特征和规律,以及银行网点与人口和主要经济活动的空间关系,发现：1银行网点呈明显集聚分布特征,这种集聚主要分布于商业和商务中心及新建中高档住宅小区密集地段;2银行网点核密度与其到CBD距离呈负相关,并随距离地增加呈对数衰减;3银行网点密度与人口—经济活动密度在街道甚至更小空间尺度上存在较显著的正相关;4银行网点核密度与大型商业网点和主要写字楼核密度均呈较强正相关,而与大型制造业企业核密度几乎不存在相关性,说明商业和楼宇经济空间特征对城市内部银行网点布局具有深刻影响,而制造业的微观区位对银行网点布局几乎无影响。
[50]	Wang Fahui.Based on the GIS Method and Application. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 2011. [本文引用: 1] [王法辉. 基于GIS的数量方法与应用. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2011.] [本文引用: 1]
[51]	Chainey S, Ratcliffe J. GIS and Crime Mapping . John Wiley & Sons, 2013. [本文引用: 2]
[52]	Bernasco W, Block R. Robberies in Chicago: A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points . Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 2011, 48(1): 33-57. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810384135 URL Magsci [本文引用: 3] 摘要 The effects of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points on the distribution of street robberies across the nearly 25,000 census blocks of Chicago are examined. The analysis includes a wide array of activities and facilities that are expected to attract criminals and generate crime. These include a variety of legal and illegal businesses and infrastructural accessibility facilitators. In addition to these crime attractors and generators, the role of the presence of motivated offenders' anchor points, as measured by offenders' residence and gang activity, is assessed. The analysis also includes crime attractors, crime generators, and offender anchor points in adjacent census blocks. The findings demonstrate the strength of the effects of crime generators and attractors and offender anchor points on the frequency of street robbery at the census block level.
[53]	Ge Fangjun, Zhao Lei, Liu Jun, et al. Correlation between Social support and mental health of the aged based on pearson correlation coefficient: A meta-analysis . Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2012, 12(11): 1320-1329. URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要目的采用Meta分析的方法,评价基于Pearson相关系数的老年人社会支持与心理健康的相关性.方法计算机检索PubMed、Springerlink、EMbase、the Cochrane Library、VIP、WanFang Data和CNKI数据库,检索时限均为从建库至2011年10月,查找关于老年人社会支持与心理健康相关性的文献.按照纳入排除标准筛选文献、提取资料并评价纳入研究的质量后,采用RevMan 5.0软件进行Meta分析.结果共检出相关文献2 396篇,但最终仅纳入4篇文献,且文献质量总体不高.Meta分析结果显示:老年入社会支持总分及各维度与心理健康各因子有一定的关系.在心理健康9个因子中,与客观支持弱相关的有躯体化、抑郁、焦虑3个因子,其他为极弱相关；与主观支持弱相关的有焦虑、恐怖2个因子,其他为极弱相关；与支持利用度弱相关的是恐怖因子,其他为极弱相关；与社会支持总分弱相关的有躯体化、焦虑、恐怖3个因子,其他为极弱相关.结论社会支持可能在一定程度上改善老年人的心理健康. [葛芳君, 赵磊, 刘俊, 等. 基于Pearson相关系数的老年人社会支持与心理健康相关性研究的Meta分析 . 中国循证医学杂志, 2012, 12(11): 1320-1329.] URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要目的采用Meta分析的方法,评价基于Pearson相关系数的老年人社会支持与心理健康的相关性.方法计算机检索PubMed、Springerlink、EMbase、the Cochrane Library、VIP、WanFang Data和CNKI数据库,检索时限均为从建库至2011年10月,查找关于老年人社会支持与心理健康相关性的文献.按照纳入排除标准筛选文献、提取资料并评价纳入研究的质量后,采用RevMan 5.0软件进行Meta分析.结果共检出相关文献2 396篇,但最终仅纳入4篇文献,且文献质量总体不高.Meta分析结果显示:老年入社会支持总分及各维度与心理健康各因子有一定的关系.在心理健康9个因子中,与客观支持弱相关的有躯体化、抑郁、焦虑3个因子,其他为极弱相关；与主观支持弱相关的有焦虑、恐怖2个因子,其他为极弱相关；与支持利用度弱相关的是恐怖因子,其他为极弱相关；与社会支持总分弱相关的有躯体化、焦虑、恐怖3个因子,其他为极弱相关.结论社会支持可能在一定程度上改善老年人的心理健康.
[54]	Weisburd D, Wyckoff L A, Ready J, et al. Does crime just move around the corner? A controlled study of spatial displacement and diffusion of crime control benefits . Criminology, 2006, 44(3): 549-592. [本文引用: 1]
[55]	Dang Yunxiao, Dong Guanpeng. Yu Jianhui, et al. Impact of land-use mixed degree on resident's home-work separation in Beijing . Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(6): 919-930. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201506006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要 <p>市场经济体制改革以来,中国城市土地利用方式发生巨大变化,深刻影响居民日常生活。尽管国内外学者关注土地利用方式对居民通勤行为的影响,然而其研究方法均采用简单的单层模型,未能将数据的多层嵌套关系纳入模型中。为解决这一问题,本文采用多层线性模型（Multilevel Models）,以北京为例,同时分析了在居住地和工作地层级上的街道土地利用混合度对居民职住分离的影响,以及居民住房情况和社会经济属性对其职住分离的影响。研究结果表明,微观层面的土地利用混合度的提升的确有利于减轻个体的职住分离;个体所在的工作地土地利用方式也对其职住分离产生影响,而且工作地对个体的影响要比居住地的影响更大;居民的社会经济属性、住房情况等对其职住分离程度存在显著的影响;交叉分类多层线性模型适用于解决存在复杂嵌套关系的影响因素分析。</p> [党云晓, 董冠鹏, 余建辉, 等. 北京土地利用混合度对居民职住分离的影响 . 地理学报, 2015, 70(6): 919-930.] https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201506006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要 <p>市场经济体制改革以来,中国城市土地利用方式发生巨大变化,深刻影响居民日常生活。尽管国内外学者关注土地利用方式对居民通勤行为的影响,然而其研究方法均采用简单的单层模型,未能将数据的多层嵌套关系纳入模型中。为解决这一问题,本文采用多层线性模型（Multilevel Models）,以北京为例,同时分析了在居住地和工作地层级上的街道土地利用混合度对居民职住分离的影响,以及居民住房情况和社会经济属性对其职住分离的影响。研究结果表明,微观层面的土地利用混合度的提升的确有利于减轻个体的职住分离;个体所在的工作地土地利用方式也对其职住分离产生影响,而且工作地对个体的影响要比居住地的影响更大;居民的社会经济属性、住房情况等对其职住分离程度存在显著的影响;交叉分类多层线性模型适用于解决存在复杂嵌套关系的影响因素分析。</p>
[56]	Barker M, Page S J, Meyer D. Modeling tourism crime . Annals of Tourism Research, 2002, 29(3): 762-782. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(01)00079-2 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT Between October 1999 and March 2000, Auckland, New Zealand hosted the largest sporting event ever held in the country, the America's Cup Yacht Race. This paper investigates the impact of this race on destination crime rates, especially against tourists: it statistically models tourism-related crime observing that there was no significant difference between the victimization rates of domestic and overseas tourists. They rather were affected by ethnicity and form of accommodation. The type of crime experienced by overseas tourists differs from that for domestic ones in that foreigners are more subject to theft from places such as the casino or a campervan. Domestic tourists are more likely to experience smaller losses as a result of theft from their cars.
[57]	Marcelo Justus dos Santos, Ana Lúcia Kassouf. A cointegration analysis of crime, economic activity, and police performance in São Paulo city . Journal of Applied Statistics, 2013, 40(10): 2087-2109. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2013.804905 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to investigate possible causes for the significant reduction observed in crime rates in S茫o Paulo city. By applying a cointegration analysis, we observed long-run relationships between crime, economic activity, and police performance. The results indicate that the lethal crime rate is positively related to unemployment and negatively related to real wages and to the results of law-enforcement activities, specifically arrests and seizure of firearms. Moreover, the hypothesis that the Disarmament Statute led to a reduction in the lethal crime rate is not rejected.
[58]	Elizabeth G, Chavez J M. Communities, street guns and homicide trajectories in Chicago, 1980-1995: Merging methods for examining homicide trends across space and time . Criminology, 2004, 42: 941-978. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2004.tb00541.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT We merge Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and a semi-parametric, group-based trajectory procedure (TRAJ) to classify communities in Chicago by violence trajectories across space. Total, street gun and other weapon homicide trajectories are identified across 831 census tracts between 1980 and 1995. We find evidence consistent with a weapon substitution effect in violent neighborhoods that are proximate to one another, a defensive diffusion effect of exclusively street gun-specific homicide increases in neighborhoods bordering the most violent areas, and a spatial decay effect of temporal homicide trends in which the most violent areas are buffered from the least violent by places experiencing mid-range levels of lethal violence over time. In merging these two methods of data analysis, we provide a more efficient way to describe both spatial and temporal trends and make significant advances in furthering applications of space-time methodologies.
[59]	Rey S J, Mack E A, Koschinsky J. Exploratory space-time analysis of burglary patterns . Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2011, 28(3): 509-531. [本文引用: 1]
[60]	Baller R D, Anselin L, Messner S F, et al. Structural covariates of U.S. County homicide rates: Incorporating spatial effects . Criminology, 2001, 39(3): 561-588. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2001.tb00933.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 Spatial analysis is statistically and substantively important for macrolevel criminological inquiry. Using county-level data for the decennial years in the 1960 to 1990 time period, we reexamine the impact of conventional structural covariates on homicide rates and explicitly model spatial effects. Important findings are: (1) homicide is strongly clustered in space; (2) this clustering cannot be completely explained by common measures of the structural similarity of neighboring counties; (3) noteworthy regional differences are observed in the effects of structural covariates on homicide rates; and (4) evidence consistent with a diffusion process for homicide is observed in the South throughout the 1960-1990 period.
[61]	Block R. Community, environment, and violent crime . Criminology, 1979, 17(1): 46-57. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1979.tb01275.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT Using regression analysis of community areas of Chicago, patterns of homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault are analyzed for the mid-1970s. It is found that neighborhoods in which very poor and middle-class people live in close proximity are those in which rates of all three types of criminal violence are highest. Of all demographic and crime variables analyzed, proximity was by far the most strongly related to crime rates. This relationship was taken to be another indicator of the extreme burden placed on blacks in heavily segregated cities of the urban North.
[62]	Wilcox P, Quisenberry N, Jones S. The built environment and community crime risk interpretation . Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 2003, 40(3): 322-345. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427803253801 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT In this article, the authors examine whether subjective perceptions of community safety are informed by the built environment. They posit that the built environment serves as a heuristic device, providing cues about likely levels of neighborhood crime, independent of the effects of neighborhood crime itself. Using data on 4,456individuals nested within 100 census tracts, the authors estimate hierarchical logistic models of perceived community crime risk. They focus on the role of the neighborhood built environment in the form of aggregated perceptions of nonresidential land use, while controlling for individual-level criminal opportunity, community-level social structural antecedents, and community-level objective crime. The findings indicate that the neighborhood-level presence of businesses and parks and playgrounds increases individual perceptions of community danger, but these effects disappear once neighborhood crime rates are controlled. The presence of schools has no effect on subjective interpretations of community crime, regardless of whether actual area crime is considered.
[63]	Reisig M D, Wolfe S E, Pratt T C. Low self-control and the religiosity-crime relationship . Criminal Justice & Behavior, 2012, 39: 1172-1191. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854812442916 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT Two arguments have been advanced regarding the effect of low self-control on the religiosity-crime relationship. The first holds that self-control explains both religiosity and criminal offending (the confounding hypothesis), whereas the second posits that religiosity promotes self-control and indirectly affects antisocial behavior (the mediation hypothesis). Both hypotheses predict that the observed effect of religiosity on criminal offending is a spurious result of individual variations in self-control. With cross-sectional survey data from a university-based sample of 769 adult participants, the regression models indicate that the effect of religiosity on self-reported criminal offending is no different from zero after controlling for low self-control. This finding is observed when different religiosity measures are used. Religiosity did, however, predict minor crimes characterized by personal indulgence (i.e., ascetic offenses) independent of low self-control.
[64]	Andresen M A, Malleson N. Crime seasonality and its variations across space . Applied Geography, 2013, 43: 25-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.06.007 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要 ABSTRACT Investigations into the seasonal patterns of crime date back 180 years to the beginnings of spatial criminology. This original research by Adolphe Quetelet, and much subsequent work, has shown that various crimes have a seasonal component, but the strength and timing of the respective seasonalities vary by crime type. In this paper, we first investigate the existence of seasonality for a number of different crime types, but also the variations of seasonality across space. We find that not only do the various crime types exhibit seasonal patterns, but those seasonal patterns have relatively distinct spatial patterns. This has implications for theory and policy.

信息化背景下财产诈骗犯罪的实证分析: 基于法经济学与社会学的双重视角

2015

... 近年来,随着互联网、智能手机和新型支付方式的普及,通过网络、电话、短信等方式的诈骗侵财类案件显著上升.据《中国法律年鉴》的统计数据显示,全国诈骗类案件在2003-2012年之间保持了高达11.82%年平均增长率^[1].诈骗犯罪具有隐蔽化、多样化、高科技化及跨境化等特征,诈骗金额愈发巨大^[2],破案率却持续低迷.诈骗犯罪严重威胁公民的财产安全,也在拷问着政府的治理与监管能力. ...

信息化背景下财产诈骗犯罪的实证分析: 基于法经济学与社会学的双重视角

2015

Understanding and preventing financial fraud against older citizens in Chinese society: Results of a focus group study

2015

... 借助SPSS软件对因变量进行正态性检验（用Shapiro-Wilk检验）,发现总诈骗数和各类诈骗数的显著性水平均为0.000,小于0.05（表2）,各因变量处于离散分布状态,均不服从正态分布.说明数据并不满足普通最小二乘回归模型的应用前提,且样本方差大于均值.若进行Poisson回归模型分析,模型对数据的拟合效果不理想.所以本文尝试构建负二项回归模型^{[2, 52]}.负二项指标选取应遵循模型变量的显著性水平高、模型整体的AIC（Akaike information criterion）值最小,且在满足以上条件的同时模型变量个数越少越好的原则.结合研究问题反复进行模型解释指标的筛选,最后确定了19个主要解释变量. ...

... 与离婚丧偶率显著正相关,这点与西方学者的研究结果相似^[57],离婚丧偶的人在生活中较为孤独,缺少家人的守望效应^[2].与中等及以下受教育水平人口、人口老龄化、农业人口比例负相关,说明诈骗受害者多为年轻化、高学历的城市居民.这是由于电信诈骗多为通过网络、电话、短信等方式进行的,年轻的高学历城市居民的信息网络设备使用普及率更高.值得一提的是,医疗机构与各种诈骗类型之间的相关性均不显著,说明ZG市医疗设施旁边的诈骗犯罪并不聚集. ...

中国犯罪地理研究述评

2014

... 犯罪地理学是研究犯罪现象与地理环境之间关系的一门学科,其核心内容是研究犯罪现象的空间分布模式和空间作用过程^[3-4].犯罪事件在空间上并非均质分布,具有典型的时空集聚性^[5].研究城市犯罪的空间分布模式,有利于识别城市犯罪的高发区,但若想透过现象看本质,解释缘何某些区域犯罪高发,还需对其成因进行更深层次探讨.现有成果表明,酒吧^[6]、餐饮设施^[7]、银行网点^[8-9]、土地利用类型^[10]、道路交通网络^[11-14]等要素对社区各类暴力犯罪影响显著;出生率与自杀率和社会经济状况、住房、民族特征等方面显著相关^[15];机动车盗窃与所在街区的种族异质性、失业率等因素紧密相连^[16];社区邻里关系对入室盗窃空间分布影响显著^[17].总之,犯罪高发是多因素共同作用的结果,探讨城市建成环境^[18-21]和社会环境^[22]对各类犯罪的影响机制,成为当今社会研究的一大热点. ...

中国犯罪地理研究述评

2014

中国犯罪地理研究

2006

中国犯罪地理研究

2006

Environmental Criminology

2014

Alcohol outlets and community levels of interpersonal violence spatial density, outlet type, and seriousness of assault

2013

Association between neighborhood need and spatial access to food stores and fast food restaurants in neighborhoods of Colonias

2009

Banking options and neighborhood crime: Does fringe banking increase neighborhood crime

2014

Local businesses as attractors or preventers of neighborhood disorder

2012

Land use and violent crime

2009

Robberies in Chicago: A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points

2011

The Criminology of place: Street segments and our understanding of the crime problem

2015

Crime at bus stops: A study of environmental factors

1986

Crime and public transport

2000

Life and death in upper manhattan and the bronx: Toward an evolutionary perspective on catastrophic social change

2000

Location quotients, ambient populations, and the spatial analysis of crime in Vancouver, Canada

1994

Analysing neighbourhood influence in criminology

2003

Testing for temporally differentiated relationships among potentially criminogenic places and census block street robbery counts

2015

基于GIS的北京市治安案件空间特征分析

2014

基于GIS的北京市治安案件空间特征分析

2014

Geographical distribution of crime in Italian provinces: A spatial econometric analysis

2009

Criminology of the unpopular

2011

Activity fields and the dynamics of crime advancing knowledge about the role of the environment in crime causation

2010

Editorial: Crime patterns in time and space: The dynamics of crime opportunities in urban areas

2015

... 现有对犯罪空间分布模式和影响因素的研究,主要集中在入室盗窃、街头抢劫等^[23-28]暴力型犯罪,对诈骗犯罪的研究还十分浅显与匮乏^[29-30].学者多基于法学、社会学或心理学视角,或探讨诈骗犯罪法律建设的完善,或寻求导致诈骗受骗的个人日常活动特征^[31].当然也有学者开始尝试基于犯罪地理学的视角,研究网络诈骗受害者的空间分布特征和影响因素等问题,如Lane等^[32]等研究美国2002-2006年的身份盗窃受害者的空间布局特征和影响因素,认为导致人们被身份盗窃的显著性影响因素有种族、城乡人口等社会因素.而这一研究也拓展了犯罪地理学在诈骗犯罪这一领域的成果. ...

Space-time interaction of residential burglaries in Wuhan, China

2015

Crime seasonality and its variations across space

2013

DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式

2013

DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式

2013

Koschinsky. Exploratory space-time analysis of burglary patterns

2012

Spatio-temporal interaction of urban crime

2008

GeoJournal: A new focus on spatially integrated social sciences and humanities

2010

城市犯罪时空特征与机制: 以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例

2012

... 运用核密度分析方法,可以非常直观形象地观测到犯罪事件的空间热点.但由于核密度是一种空间可视化的平滑技术,会导致一些并没有犯罪事件的地方也有了密度分布,从而导致夸大犯罪事件的分布范围^{[51, 54]}.尺度单元的可变性,是每个犯罪研究者在研究犯罪问题时不可避免的一个问题^[30].选取的尺度单元愈小,研究视角愈微观,对犯罪行为的打击和防范的精准度就会愈高.在中国,社区是最小的行政单元,为社会有机体的最基本内容,是宏观社会的缩影.传统观念认为,同一社区的居民具有密切的社会交往和相近的利益与意识,对理解诈骗犯罪的空间分布有着基础性的解释意义.故而,本文选取社区作为空间分析单元,对诈骗犯罪发生的影响因素进行探究. ...

城市犯罪时空特征与机制: 以北京城八区财产类犯罪为例

2012

Perceived risk of internet theft victimization

2009

Geographies of identity theft in the U.S.: Understanding spatial and demographic patterns, 2002-2006

2010

Risky lifestyles, low self-control, and violent victimization across gendered pathways to crime

2015

... 现有对诈骗犯罪的研究多为针对受害者,而解释犯罪受害最流行的观点是基于个人的生活方式理论（lifestyle theory）^[33-36]和日常活动理论（routine-activities theory）^[37].这两个理论都假设“潜在受害者的习惯、生活方式和行为模式,增加了犯罪的发生率”.其中以日常活动理论应用为更广.该理论认为犯罪受害的发生,必须符合“有吸引力的目标、可能的犯罪者和监护人的缺乏”3个条件^[38-39].现有针对诈骗受害的研究,多为采用调查问卷的方法来获取个人的基本数据,解释诈骗受害或重复受害^[40]的影响因素.如导致人们成为电话诈骗^[41-42]、网络诈骗^[43-44]、身份盗窃^[45]、远程购物诈骗^[46]、商品促销诈骗^[47]等类型诈骗受害者的影响因素有哪些?部分成果将原用以解释实体空间犯罪被害的日常活动理论,应用拓展到网络^[48]、电话等非接触的虚拟空间. ...

Examining the relationship between road structure and burglary risk via quantitative network analysis

2014

Routine online activity and internet fraud targeting: Extending the Generality of Routine Activity Theory

2010

Modeling violent crime rates: A test of social disorganization in the city of Tshwane, South Africa

2010

2006

Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach

1979

Property crime rates in the United States: A macrodynamic analysis, 1947-1977, with ex ante forecasts for the mid 1980s

1980

"Can't Stop, Won't Stop": Self-control, risky lifestyles, and repeat victimization

2014

Can you hear me now? Telemarketing fraud victimization and lifestyles

2015

Routine cell phone activity and exposure to sext messages: Extending the generality of routine activity theory and exploring the etiology of a risky teenage behavior

2014

The thief with a thousand faces and the victim with none: Identifying determinants for online identity theft victimization with routine activity theory

2015

Being pursued online: Applying cyberlifestyle-routine activities theory to cyberstalking victimization

2011

GeoJournal: A new focus on spatially integrated social sciences and humanities

2010

Efforts to reduce consumer fraud victimization among the elderly: The effect of information access on program awareness and contact

2014

Consumer fraud and the elderly

2006

Being pursued online: Applying cyberlifestyle-routine activities theory to cyberstalking victimization

2011

城市银行网点及其与人口—经济活动关系的空间分析: 以长春市中心城区为例

2015

... 2.2.1 平均最近邻分析平均最近邻分析（average nearest neighbor analysis）以空间中的诈骗点为考察对象,计算每个观测点与最邻近点的平均距离（Obj.D）,继而与点和点之间的随机平均距离（Random.D）做比较.如果Obj.D<Random.D,表示所分析的诈骗点空间分布为聚类.反之,则视为分散.平均最近邻比率通过观测平均距离除以期望平均距离计算得出.比率小于1,说明诈骗点分布模式为集聚,反之为分散^[49]. ...

... 与商务大厦和公司企业所在地显著正相关,这两类设施往往分布在商业发达、人口众多且经济活动活跃的地段^[49],人员构成复杂,易有监控盲区.其中,网络诈骗与公司企业显著相关,这是由于现代公司全部为网络化办公,人们在网上除了日常工作以外,购物、交友等也成为其日常活动.长时间暴露在网络社交空间,增加了人们的受骗风险.另外,网络活动的私密性,导致监控困难.信用卡和短信诈骗与商务大厦均显著相关,这因为商务大厦多集合住宿、购物、游乐等服务设施,人员复杂,常会产生资金交易所致. ...

城市银行网点及其与人口—经济活动关系的空间分析: 以长春市中心城区为例

2015

2011

... 2.2.2 核密度估计核密度估计法是用来估计点的空间集聚性的密度函数,是一种非参数估计方法.适用于生成一个描述观测变量聚集程度的二维平滑估计面,可以得到空间连续的密度变化图层,显示“波峰”和“波谷”^[50].核密度估计作为犯罪活动空间分析的重要手段,所导出的结果可以直接进行热点分析^[51],且不受地理位置影响,可直观体现了犯罪活动的空间集聚趋势.值越高,表明点要素分布越密集,反之,越分散. ...

2011

GIS and Crime Mapping

2013

Robberies in Chicago: A block-level analysis of the influence of crime generators, crime attractors, and offender anchor points

2011

... 2.2.3 负二项回归负二项回归模型（negative binomial model）^[52]一个连续的混合泊松分布,其允许泊松均值服从γ分布,其概率表达式为所示. ...

... 为了提高模型的模拟精度,需要对各自变量进行共线性检验,变量的方差膨胀因子（variance inflation factor, VIF）值越大,说明各变量之间的共线性越强.通常情况下要求模型指标的VIF值小于10时表示各变量间没有明显的相关性^[52].分析结果（表3）显示,各自变量的VIF值均小于10,说明它们之间没有明显的共线性,可同时用于模型拟合.取各社区内的人口数量的对数作为偏移量,并对负二项模型进行似然比检验卡方值为73.80,P值为0.000,说明自变量用于解释因变量是有意义的. ...

基于Pearson相关系数的老年人社会支持与心理健康相关性研究的Meta分析

2012

... 以天为单位,对5类诈骗警情数据进行相关性分析.发现总诈骗数据在两个月的整体相关性系数为0.761,表现为强相关关系^[53].继续对每类诈骗数据进行相关性分析,发现除信用卡诈骗（-0.225）呈现弱负相关和接触型诈骗（0.521）呈中等程度相关外,网络诈骗（0.741）、电话诈骗（0.735）、短信诈骗（0.666）以及接触型诈骗（0.521）均表现为强相关关系的特点.说明各类诈骗数据在月尺度上具有统计意义上的相关关系.但考虑到由于只有两个月的数据,以天为单位的分析代表性意义不强,因此,本文进一步以星期和小时为单位进行更详细指标的分析. ...

基于Pearson相关系数的老年人社会支持与心理健康相关性研究的Meta分析

2012

Does crime just move around the corner? A controlled study of spatial displacement and diffusion of crime control benefits

2006

北京土地利用混合度对居民职住分离的影响

2015

... 建成环境指标主要包括各社区内居民的居住地情况（地产小区个数）、生活设施（各类餐饮、银行网点、医疗设施等）、休闲度假设施（旅游景点、住宿设施）、环境结构指标（道路密度、土地利用混合度^[55]）以及是否具有特殊性的大规模人口聚集（是否存在高校,存在= 1,不存在= 0）等共计11个指标;社会环境指标的选取是基于全国第六次人口普查数据中的社区居民的个体基本属性特征,包括经济能力水平特征（家庭购买商品房的占比、月收入水平在1000元以下的人口占比、人均住房面积）、非物质生活质量特征（离婚丧偶率）、受教育水平特征（中等及以下受教育水平人口占比）、人口老龄化特征（60岁以上老龄化人口占比）、城市化水平（农业人口占比）以及外来人口占比^① (①主要指常驻本地,且政府已经登记在册的外来人口.)等共计8个指标（表3）. ...

北京土地利用混合度对居民职住分离的影响

2015

Modeling tourism crime

2002

... 与餐饮、住宿和旅游景点设施呈显著正相关.已有研究表明大型赛事旅游活动会带来犯罪率的显著升高^[56],外来游客的急速增长,在旅游设施周围聚集,易导致监控与防范盲区.同时,人们在旅游度假时,身心放松,丧失警惕也容易导致被骗.这3个因素中,旅游景区与5类专项诈骗均表现出显著相关性,住宿与除了信用卡以外的4种专项诈骗显著相关,而餐饮设施只在0.1的水平与总诈骗显著相关,与其他5类专项诈骗均不相关.这是由于住宿和景区是主要的对游客服务的旅游接待设施,游客的流动性、外来性、居住游玩的临时性以及与当地居民的地域文化属性的差异性等因素,都导致其更易被骗.而餐饮设施不仅仅为游客服务,同时也承担了日常居民的接待服务任务.这点也说明诈骗受害与旅游专项设施之间具有显著相关性的特征. ...

A cointegration analysis of crime, economic activity, and police performance in S?o Paulo city

2013

Communities, street guns and homicide trajectories in Chicago, 1980-1995: Merging methods for examining homicide trends across space and time

2004

... 诈骗犯罪是现代城市中亟待解决的一大社会难题,目前已经上升为ZG市第二大犯罪类型,研究这一类型的犯罪具有重大的现实与理论指导意义.本文系统分析了5类专项诈骗的时空间分布特征,发现诈骗犯罪和其他类型的犯罪一样存在典型的时间和空间的集聚性^[58-59].诈骗受害的空间分布是一个多层次、多因素共同作用的结果,既受制于社会环境的制约^[60-61],也对建成环境有显著依赖性^[62].同时证实了日常活动理论在解释各类诈骗的形成机理上是仍然适用的.本文弥补了西方仅从微观个体探讨诈骗受害影响因素的研究不足^[63],从定量化角度拓展了犯罪地理学对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,填补了国内在这一领域的研究空白. ...

Exploratory space-time analysis of burglary patterns

2011

Structural covariates of U.S. County homicide rates: Incorporating spatial effects

2001

Community, environment, and violent crime

1979

The built environment and community crime risk interpretation

2003

Low self-control and the religiosity-crime relationship

2012

Crime seasonality and its variations across space

2013

... 本文是从犯罪地理学视角对诈骗专项犯罪的一次有益尝试,但目前还处在探索阶段,需要在后续研究中不断进行深化与探索.① 关于各类诈骗犯罪空间集聚程度差异的原因探索,通过计算各类诈骗基于社区尺度的Moran's I指数,发现网络诈骗的空间集聚最为明显（0.194）,其次为短信诈骗（0.1369）和电话诈骗（0.096）,信用卡诈骗（0.069）和接触型诈骗（0.072）空间集聚最不明显,缘何有这种差异有待进一步深挖.② 受制于数据本身的特点,导致诈骗犯罪的时间序列的分析受限^[64],难以精确开展对诈骗犯罪的时间预测.③ 由于对诈骗受害者的个人属性信息的不可获得性,缺乏对更精细化的微观层次因素的考虑.这些内容都有待于进一步研究与深化. ...

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ZG市诈骗犯罪的时空分布与影响因素

The spatial-temporal distribution and influencing factorsof fraud crime in ZG city, China

1 引言

2 数据来源与研究方法

2.1 研究区域与数据来源

2.2 研究方法

3 时空分布特征

3.1 时间特征

3.2 空间分布特征

4 诈骗犯罪的影响因素分析

4.1 指标选取与模型选择

4.2 影响因素分析

5 结论与讨论

5.1 结论

5.2 讨论

参考文献 文献选项 原文顺序 文献年度倒序 文中引用次数倒序 被引期刊影响因子

参考文献

原文顺序

文献年度倒序

文中引用次数倒序

被引期刊影响因子