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地理学报 >

2025 , Vol. 80 >Issue 4: 905 - 920

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202504004

理论与方法探索

中国边境口岸地缘风险模型构建与评估

  • 程艺 , 1 ,
  • 刘慧 , 2, 3
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  • 1.北京市社会科学院，北京 100101
  • 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101
  • 3.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049
刘慧(1964-), 女, 陕西兴平人, 研究员, 博士生导师, 研究方向为区域可持续发展。E-mail:

程艺(1992-), 女, 四川广安人, 博士, 助理研究员, 研究方向为边境地理、地缘政治。E-mail:

收稿日期: 2024-02-22

  修回日期: 2024-12-02

  网络出版日期: 2025-04-23

基金资助

第二次青藏高原科学考察研究(2019QZKK1007)

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010103)

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所所长基金项目(E3W30090YZ)

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Model construction and assessment for geo-risk at China's border ports

  • CHENG Yi , 1 ,
  • LIU Hui , 2, 3
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  • 1. Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 3. College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2024-02-22

  Revised date: 2024-12-02

  Online published: 2025-04-23

Supported by

The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK1007)

Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20010103)

Director Fund for Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS(E3W30090YZ)

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摘要

边境口岸是阻止邻国风险入境的第一道防线，其风险状态直接威胁国家安全，影响边民生计和企业生存，当前对于边境口岸地缘风险的定量评估还较为缺乏。本文从概率和损失两个维度出发，构建了边境口岸地缘风险定量评估模型，融合多源时空数据开展中国口岸地缘风险测算、类型划分和特征分析。结果表明：① 中国边境口岸地缘风险压力逐渐西移，西南部边境口岸压力聚集，综合性功能的边境口岸呈现高风险压力状态。② 南部中缅、中越边境口岸地缘风险概率较高，北部边境的通道性节点口岸地缘风险概率突出。瑞丽在所有口岸中，地缘风险概率位列第一。③ 南部边境地缘风险的潜在损失集中，尤其“一带一路”途经的口岸和对外通道关键节点口岸的潜在损失较高。④ 口岸地缘风险整体呈现“南密北疏，多点均衡”格局，可划分为高风险、高概率、高损失、低风险4个类别，1/4的口岸呈现高风险状态。本文构建的地缘风险评估模型可为其他国家或区域的风险量化提供参考，评估结果可为中国边境安全的相关决策提供科学支撑。

关键词： 边境口岸; 地缘风险; 国家安全; 地缘场强; 中国

本文引用格式

程艺 , 刘慧 . 中国边境口岸地缘风险模型构建与评估[J]. 地理学报, 2025 , 80(4) : 905 -920 . DOI: 10.11821/dlxb202504004

Abstract

Border ports serve as critical frontlines against potential threats from neighboring countries, with their risk status directly impacting national security and the livelihoods of local residents and businesses. Despite this importance, there remains a lack of quantitative assessments of geo-risk at these border ports. This study addresses this gap by constructing a geo-risk assessment model based on the concepts of probability and potential loss. By integrating multi-source spatio-temporal data, the geo-risk at border ports is estimated for type classification and feature analysis. The results reveal several key findings: geo-risk stress is gradually shifting westward, with significant accumulation at southwestern border ports, and comprehensive border ports are experiencing heightened risk. Geo-risk probability is high at China-Myanmar and China-Vietnam border ports, with notable risks at northern transit node ports, and Ruili ranks highest in geo-risk probability among all ports. Potential losses are concentrated along the southern border, especially at critical nodes of external transit routes and ports along the Belt and Road. The overall spatial distribution of geo-risk at border ports follows a pattern of "dense in the south, sparse in the north, and balanced across multiple points,"with risks categorized into four types: high risk, high probability, high loss, and low risk, with approximately one-quarter of ports categorized as high-risk. This study enhances the understanding of border risk, and the constructed geo-risk assessment model provides a valuable reference for risk quantification in other countries or regions while offering a scientific basis for decision-making related to border security.

Key words： border ports; geo-risk; national security; geo-field; China

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