定量分析轨道交通对城市内部精细土地利用复杂变化影响的时空效应,对于预测未来新建站点对土地利用的影响以及规划方案的调整与优化具有重要的指导意义。本文提出结合历史高分遥感影像与POI数据获取多时间节点精细土地利用信息的方法,并以广州市二号和八号地铁线为例,结合逐步回归模型与站点用地功能分类,从时间和空间两个维度定量研究地铁对土地利用转变的复杂影响过程与空间差异规律。结果表明,轨道交通促使站点周边低密度居住用地向商业用地、高密度居住用地等高效益土地利用方式的转变;轨道交通在规划、建设、运营不同阶段对于周边土地利用的影响呈现显著的差异规律;地铁站点对土地利用变化影响规律具有明显的空间异质性特征,与站点在城市里的位置以及站点周边的土地利用有关,对城市中心区域的影响较小,对郊区的影响主要与可用的非建设用地面积相关,而工业用地对土地利用变化具有限制作用;轨道交通还带来用地功能和性质的转变,这样的转变大多发生在地铁站点开通运营的时间点。

The study of the spatio-temporal effects of urban rail transit on land-use change is significant for the collaborative simulation of land use and urban rail transit. In this paper, high-resolution remote sensing images and POIs data were combined to acquire fine-scale land use information. A stepwise regression model and a land function classification method were used to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of urban rail transit on land-use change. The results indicated that low density residential land would be converted to high density residential land and commercial land under the influences of urban rail transit. The influences of rail transit on land use vary over its various stages, including planning, construction and operation. In the planning and operation stages, such influences are mostly found in suburban areas with better transport infrastructure, while in the construction stage, they are related to available areas for land development. The land function around the urban central stations has changed slightly due to the restriction of land, while the land function around the suburban stations has changed significantly. The transitions of land function will emerge when metro stations go into operation.