利用1956-2010 年黄河源区流域水文、气象观测数据和2010-2030 年区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出数据降尺度生成的未来气候情景资料,通过分析流量的演变规律和揭示气候归因,预测了未来流量可能的演变趋势。研究表明：近55 年来黄河源区年平均流量总体呈减少趋势,并具有5a、8a、15a、22a 和42a 的准周期变化;南海夏季风减弱引起流域降水量的减少与全球变暖背景下蒸发量的增大和冻土的退化是导致黄河源区流量减少的气候归因;根据区域气候模式系统PRECIS预测结果,未来20 年黄河源区流量变化趋势可能仍以减少为主。
The hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model (PRECIS) during 2010-2020 are used to analyze the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, and to predict the variation trend for future flows. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1) Annual mean flow shows a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of Yellow River, and there are periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a. 2) The precipitation decrease due to the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon as well as the increasing evaporation and the degenerating frozen soil in global warming are the climate origin of decreasing flow. 3) Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of Yellow River are likely to decrease in the next 20 years.
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