本文对全球气候变化影响下中国森林的脆弱性作了初步研究。首先讨论了适应性、敏感性和脆弱性的概念及其评价方法：其次介绍了中国森林脆弱性的评价指标。脆弱性的分析通常包括适应性和敏感性，或现实的脆弱性及未来的脆弱性两部分内容，前者主要分析现实影响森林生态系统自身调节与恢复能力的各种因素，后者主要分析未来气候变化影响下可能造成的脆弱性。现实的脆弱性指标主要包括林地质量、林龄结构、薪材供应以及森林灾害四类指标。未来的脆弱性指标主要包括类型变化、生产力变化以及森林火险三类指标。将各类指标综合，即可得到综合指标；最后，根据所能获得的资料初步计算分析了中国森林的脆弱性分布。

The analysis of vulnerability of ecosystem in response to global climate change is one of the most concerned issues in ecology and climatology. We discussed the concept of vulnerability, sensitivity, adaptability and their assessment method. The vulnerability is affected not only by climate sensitivity but also by structure, functioning and succession of the system as well as its self-adjusting and recovering abilities. In the assessment ofvulnerability, two aspects are usually included, i.e., present and future vulnerability, in the former assessment, theimpact of various present factors on self-adjusting and recovering abilities of vulnerable forest ecosystem isassessed, while in the latter assessment the impact of future climate change is assessed. Indexes of presentvulnerability include quality of forest land, forest age, supply and demand of fire-wood and forest fire. The qualityof forest land reflects the appropriate land condition for forest growth and potential of production, especially theconditions of soil, moisture and temperature. Here we use the third grade of land quality as the vulnerable index.In the timber, the area and amount of growing stock of young-aged and middle-aged forest make up too largeproportion while those of over-matured forest make up too little proportion, indicating the forest is easily affectedby environmental factors and extreme events. Forest fire is a kind of very dangerous disaster. Because of itsserious damage, it becomes the direct cause leading to vulnerability. The region with too tow of firewood is easilydamaged by human activities. Therefore it is the potential vulnerable area.Indexes of change of vulnerability in response to future climate change include the change in the vegetationtype, the decreasing of the forest productivity and forest fire. Comparing the indices of forest type, productivityand tbrest tire in doubled CO₂ condition with present indices, we can calculate the coefficients of vulnerability.The results show that the regions of present and future vulnerability in China mainly distribute in thesouthwest China, south Chin4 central China, and the northeast China.