本文应用系统动力学理论建立了奈曼旗土地沙漠化动态仿真模型。奈曼旗土地沙漠化系统由种植业、林业、畜牧业、草地和人口五个动态子系统构成。本文根据土地沙漠化系统中正负反馈关系,建立了系统流图和构造方程,并经仿真运算,就农林牧土地利用构成的三种不同方案,对到2040年该旗沙漠化发展趋势分别作了预测。

A dynamic simulating model of land desertification in the Naiman Banner, Inner Mon-golia was established by means of system dynamic theory. The land desertification system in the Naiman Banner consists of five subsystems, i.e., farming, forestry, animal husbandry, gras-sland and population. According to positive-negative feedback relations in the land desertifica-tion, 75 equations were built and carried out schematic prediction with IBM PC/XT com-puter by using Micro-Dynamo language. With farming, forestry and animal husbandry form-ing three different landuse schemes, the desertification developmental trends in the banner up to 2040 were predicted. Predictions showed that the best landuse structures for farming, for-estry and animal husbandry in the banner will be 15: 23: 62 in 2000; 16: 31: 53 in 2020 and 18: 44: 38 in 2040. Such a dynamic change of landuse structure will effectively control the d}sertification process and gain the best economic and ecological benefits.