从气候异常着手，着重分析了气候异常条件下，京津冀地区降水、气温所受影响及变化 趋势，并进一步分析了上述变化可能对本地区水资源产生的影响。揭示了近50年来，本区气温 升高1.77℃与降水减少13.9%并使本区水资源明显减少的事实。在此基础上，讨论了气候异常 情景下，水资源供需矛盾加剧，缺水量可能高达45亿m3左右。初步给出了一些对策措施，以 期能够部分缓解气候异常对本区水资源的不利影响。据测算，这些措施只能解决本区缺水量的 50%左右，根本解决本区的缺水问题还要靠外流域调水。

The climate abnormality in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in recent 50 years is analyzed, and the obvious effect on water resource decreasing mainly caused by precipitation decrease is discussed. Annual temperature has risen about 1. 77’℃ precipitation reduced about 13.9 percent, water resource decreased about 50 percent in this area since the 1950s’, the serous inconsistency between water demand and supply has caused a series of problems. Some countermeasures to mitigate the water resource crisis are put out, but the measures can only resolve about 50 percent of the water shortage. To thoroughly resolve this problem, cross valley water resource attempering is necessarily.