伴随人类社会经济发展、人口规模增加、城市化和工业化进程加快,由能源消费迅速增长导致的碳循环非对称性加剧与全球气候变化已成为当前世界各界共同关注的焦点。如何提高能源效率是积极响应节能减排措施、实现社会可持续发展的有效途径。通过分析中国与5 个发达国家能源效率、产业结构、能源消费结构演变特征,建立向量自回归(VAR) 模型、脉冲函数(IRF) 和方差分解函数(VD) 来揭示中国能源效率对产业结构、能源消费结构演变的响应机理。结果显示近40 年来,中国第三产业较第二产业发展对能源效率提高具有更大推动作用,虽第二产业发展与能源效率提高也成正向弱相关,但根据发达国家发展经验,中国第二产业发展对能源效率提高的抑制效应尚未显现,经济发展仍需粗放、耗能工业拉动,另外,中国能源消费过度集中于煤炭能源的结构特征对能源效率的提高具有抑制效应,未来中国能源效率对产业结构、能源消费结构演变的响应具体表现在：① 相较发达国家,中国产业结构调整对能源效率在短期内具有抑制效应,直至中期,能源效率受产业结构调整冲击才呈现持续加大的趋势；② 由于中国“以煤为主”的能源消费结构特征长期存在,其结构调整效应较发达国家滞后显现,发达国家能源消费结构演进的效应也表明短期内能源消费结构调整对能源效率的提高效果不显著；③ 中国产业结构演变对能源效率变动影响程度大于能源消费结构演变影响程度,产业结构调整与升级是影响中国能源效率提高、节能减排政策实施的关键环节。
王强, 郑颖, 伍世代, 李婷婷
. 能源效率对产业结构及能源消费结构演变的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2011
, 66(6)
: 741
-749
.
DOI: 10.11821/xb201106003
With the economic development of the human society, growth of population, and accelerated urbanization and industrialization, increase of asymmetric carbon cycle and global climate change caused by rapid growth of energy consumption are becoming the current hot spots of all walks of life worldwide. Therefore, improving energy efficiency has become an effective way of active response to energy saving and realization of sustainable development. This paper, by analyzing the characteristics of energy efficiency, industrial structure and energy consumption structure of China and five other developed countries, establishes a VAR model and uses impulse responses function and variance decomposition methods to reveal the mechanism of energy efficiency response to industrial structure evolvement and energy consumption structure change. Research suggests that in the last 40 years, China's tertiary industry has played a greater role than its secondary industry in improving energy efficiency. Although the development of the secondary industry has a positively weak correlation with energy efficiency, according to the experience of developed countries, the inhibition of secondary industry on the energy efficiency improvement has not yet appeared in China, which indicates that the economy still needs pushing by industry with extensive and high energy consumption. Otherwise, the energy consumption relies on coal, which also has the inhibition on the energy efficiency improving. In the end, basing on such analysis, the paper discusses the response of energy efficiency to industrial restructuring and energy consumption structure change. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) Compared with developed countries, the industrial restructuring has inhibition on energy efficiency improvement in the short term until the mid-term, then the positive impact of industrial restructuring will emerge, which will improve energy efficiency. (2) Since existence of "coal-based" energy consumption structure for a long time, its negative effect appeared later in China than in developed countries, and the evolution of energy consumption structure in both China and developed countries has little effect on energy efficiency. (3) The influence of industrial structure change is greater than the evolution of energy consumption structure, so the impact of industrial restructuring and upgrading is the key to improve energy efficiency and carry out energy saving policies.
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