玉米是中国最主要的粮食作物之一，因其较高的需水量，受气候影响，极易遭受旱灾。因此，以黄淮海夏播玉米区为例，从风险的角度进行玉米旱灾评价，对于农业旱灾预警和保障国家粮食安全具有重要的现实和指导意义。在全面收集研究区气象、土壤、土地利用、农气观测等资料的基础上，基于农业旱灾风险评价的概念框架“致灾因子危险性H评价(Hazard)—承灾体脆弱性曲线Vc 评价(Vulnerability Curve)—作物减产风险性R评价(Risk)”，引入基于物理过程的作物模型EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calulator)，采用作物模型模拟和数字制图等技术，分别从全生育期和分生育期角度，对黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米旱灾风险的时空分布进行了定量评价。结果表明：在2、5、10 和20 年一遇致灾水平下，黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米旱灾减产风险总体呈现出从西北向东南方向递减的趋势，这主要由气候环境和下垫面的地形地貌条件所决定。20 年一遇水平时，产量损失风险的高值区(R ≥ 0.5) 集中分布在冀北高原山地和山东省中南部地区，占黄淮海夏播玉米区玉米总面积的7.63%。黄淮海夏播玉米区成灾风险较高的生育期：拔节期—抽雄期、抽雄期—乳熟期、乳熟期—成熟期应加强防范。研究可为高风险区和高风险时段的玉米旱灾风险防范提供理论依据和科技支撑。
贾慧聪, 王静爱, 潘东华, 曹春香
. 基于EPIC模型的黄淮海夏玉米旱灾风险评价[J]. 地理学报, 2011
, 66(5)
: 643
-652
.
DOI: 10.11821/xb201105007
As the global climate change and food security became an increasingly important issue, agriculture drought comes to the focus of attention. China is a typical monsoon climate country as well as an agricultural country with the world's largest population. The East Asian monsoon has had a tremendous impact on agricultural production. Therefore, a maize drought disaster risk assessment, in line with the requirements of sustainable development of agriculture, is important to drought disaster reduction and food security. This study collected information on meteorology, soil, land use and agro-meteorological observation of the research area, and quantitative assessment was done to present spatio-temporal distribution of maize drought in maize region of northern China based on the concept framework of "Hazard-inducing factors assessment (Hazard)-Vulnerability assessment of hazard-affected body (Vulnerability Curve)-Risk assessment (Risk)", importing crop model EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator), and using crop model simulation and digital mapping techniques, from the point of view of whole growth period and sub-growth period. The results showed that in terms of 2-, 5-, 10- and 20-year return periods, the overall maize drought risk decreased gradually from northwest to southeast in the maize planting areas. In the 20-year return period, high risk value regions (maize risk level ≥ 0.5) are concentrated in northern Hebei plateau and central and southern parts of Shandong Province, accounting for 7.63% of the total maize area. The high risk maize growing periods of maize region in northern China were heading - tasseling period, tasseling - milking period and milking - mature period, which should be paid more attention. This paper may provide theoretical basis and technological support for maize drought risk prevention and mitigation of high-risk areas and high-risk periods.
[1] National Grain & Oils Information Center, http://www.grain.gov.cn/BigClass.asp?BName=玉米频道. [国家粮油信息中心.http://www.grain.gov.cn/BigClass.asp?BName=玉米频道.]
[2] The Editorial Committee of China Agricultural Statistical Yearbook. China Agriculture Yearbook (2006). Beijing: ChinaAgriculture Press, 2006. [中国农业年鉴编辑委员会. 中国农业年鉴(2006). 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2006.]
[3] Zheng Yuanchang. Review on global natural catastrophes. Natural Disaster Reduction in China, 2000, 10(1): 14-19. [郑远长. 全球自然灾害概述. 中国减灾, 2000, 10(1): 14-19.]
[4] Yue Guidong. Cloning and analyses of genes involved in response to drought stress in maize [D]. Jinan: ShandongUniversity, 2004. [岳桂东. 玉米干旱胁迫相关基因的克隆与分析[D]. 济南: 山东大学, 2004.]
[5] Smith K. Environmental Hazards. London: Routledge, 1996: 389.
[6] BenWisner. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge, 2000.
[7] IPCC. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers. WMO, 2001.
[8] Downing T E, Butterfield R, Cohen S et al. Vulnerability Indices: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. UNEP PolicySeries, UNEP, Nairobi, 2001.
[9] United Nations. Risk awareness and assessment//Living with Risk. ISDR, UN, WMO and Asian Disaster Reduction Centre,Geneva, 2002: 39-78.
[10] Carreno et al. (Inter-American Development Bank, Colombia University). Indicators of disaster risk and risk managementprogram for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2000.
[11] Perles Roselló M J, Vías Martinez J M, Andreo Navarro B. Vulnerability of human environment to risk: Case ofgroundwater contamination risk. Environment International, 2009, 35(2): 325-335.
[12] Zhang Jiquan, Li Ning. Quantitative Methods and Applications of Risk Assessment and Management on MainMeteorological Disasters. Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press, 2007. [张继权, 李宁. 主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用. 北京: 北京师范大学出版社, 2007.]
[13] UN/ISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). Living with Risk: A Global Review of DisasterReduction Initiatives. Geneva: UN/ISDR, 2007.
[14] Liu Jiandong, Wang Shili, Yu Qiang et al. Simulation of impacts of doubled CO2 on the climatic productivity inHuang-Huai-Hai Plain. Journal of Natural Disasters. 2001, 10(1): 17-23. [刘建栋, 王石立, 于强等. CO2倍增对黄淮海气候生产力影响的数值模拟. 自然灾害学报, 2001, 10(1): 17-23.]
[15] Yang Xiu, Sun Fang, Lin Erda et al. Study on the sensitivity and vulnerability of maize to climate change in China. ActaEcologica Sinica, 2005, 24(4): 54-57. [杨修, 孙芳, 林而达等. 我国玉米对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究. 地域研究与开发, 2005, 24(4): 54-57.]
[16] Jia Jianying, Guo Jianping, Peng Ni. Effects of climate change on yield of maize in Northeast China. Journal of AnhuiAgri. Sci., 2010, 38(32): 18309-18312. [贾建英, 郭建平, 彭妮. 气候变化对东北地区玉米产量的影响. 安徽农业科学,2010, 38(32): 18309-18312.]
[17] Tong Pingya. Regionalization of Maize Growing Areas in China. Beijing: China Agricultural Scientech Press, 1992. [佟屏亚. 中国玉米种植区划. 北京: 中国农业科技出版社, 1992.]
[18] Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Zhuang Dafang et al. A study on the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of land-use anddriving forces analyses of China in the 1990s. Geographical Research, 2003, 22(1): 1-12. [刘纪远, 张增祥, 庄大方等. 20世纪90 年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析. 地理研究, 2003, 22(1): 1-12.]
[19] Williams J R, Jones C A, Kiniry J R et al. The EPIC crop growth model. Transactions of the ASAE, 1989, 32(2): 489-511.
[20] Williams J R. The EPIC model. Remple, TX: USDAARS Grassland, Soil andWater Research Laboratory, 1997.
[21] Cai Xitian, Xu Zongxue, Su Baolin et al. Distributed simulation for regional evapotranspiration and verification by usingremote sensing. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2009, 25(10): 154-160. [蔡锡填, 徐宗学, 苏保林等. 区域蒸散发分布式模拟及其遥感验证. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(10): 154-160.]
[22] Leopold C, Krideman P E. Growth and Development of Plant. Beijing: Science Press, 1975. [Leopold C, Krideman P E. 植物的生长和发育. 北京: 科学出版社, 1975.]
