利用1961-2008 年四川省133 个气象站逐日降水资料，研究分析了四川省近50 年大气降水的变化特征及影响。研究发现：四川省年均暴雨日数从西到东呈现“增—减—增”的总体变化趋势：甘孜州、凉山州南部、攀枝花等地区年均暴雨日数主要呈弱增加趋势，四川盆地西部、中部呈明显减少趋势，盆地东北部地区则呈较强增加趋势；除了盆地中部、南部部分地区外，四川省其余地区的暴雨强度主要呈增强趋势，其中盆地东北部加强趋势明显。四川盆地西部、中部地区各量级雨日均主要呈减少趋势，无雨日明显增加，年降水减少明显；盆地东北部地区年均暴雨、大雨日数及强度都呈明显增加、增强趋势，此区域年降水量的增加主要是由于大雨、暴雨量的增加导致。近50 年来四川省大气降水的变化形势给不同的区域带来了不同影响：四川盆地西部和中部地区大气降水明显减少，影响到地表径流以及地下水位，导致水资源紧张；川西高原北部阿坝州降水也明显减少，在一定程度上促进了生态环境恶化；而盆地东北部、甘孜州、攀枝花和凉山州等地区暴雨日数和强度的增多、增强导致部分地区洪涝、地质灾害频发。
周长艳, 岑思弦, 李跃清, 彭国照, 杨淑群, 彭骏
. 四川省近50年降水的变化特征及影响[J]. 地理学报, 2011
, 66(5)
: 619
-630
.
DOI: 10.11821/xb201105005
Based on the daily precipitation data of 133 stations in Sichuan from 1961 to 2008, precipitation variation and its impacts are analyzed in this paper. Results indicate that during 1961-2008, the spatial distribution of the annual precipitation variation in Sichuan shows an increase-decrease-increase situation from west to east: increase in most parts of Ganzi and Liangshan, decrease in Aba and most parts of Sichuan Basin and increase in the northeastern part of the basin. The linear trend coefficient field in the spatial changes of the rainstorm days also displays an increase-decrease-increase situation from west to east: increase in most parts of Ganzi, Liangshan and Panzhihua, remarkable decrease in the western and central parts of the basin and significant increase in the northeastern part of the basin. Apart from some parts of the central and southern basin, the rainstorm intensity in the province tended to increase, and the trend in the northeastern part of the basin was notable. . The variation trend of the heavy rain days is close to that of the rainstorm, showing an increase-decrease-increase change from west to east. Except for some parts of Ganzi, the number of moderate and light rain days in most parts of Sichuan decreased. On the contrary, the number of days without rain increased greatly in most parts of the province, except for part of western Sichuan Plateau.
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