在快速城市化过程中，在规模不等的城市中城市人口将如何分布？这是制订中国社会经济发展战略必须考虑的一个重大基础问题。美国是世界上最大的发达经济体，城市体系成熟，100 年前的城市化水平和中国现在相当。研究20 世纪美国城市体系的演化特征，对中国会有所启发。采用美国人口普查数据，运用位序—规模法则等方法，分析了美国城市系统的演变过程。结果显示：在20 世纪前70 年美国城市化处于加速发展的中期阶段，大城市的人口增长明显快于中小城市，城市体系向非均衡化方向发展；20 世纪后30 年，美国城市化进入了稳定发展的后期阶段。与美国不同的是，处于城市化加速发展中期阶段的中国(1985-2000 年)，小城市人口增长较快，城市体系趋于均衡。研究认为：未来我国大城市的人口集聚有较大潜力。
Over the process of rapid urbanization, how will massive rural-urban migrants be distributed in the cities with different sizes? It is one of key issues that we must face when we set out the strategies for socio-economic development at the country level. The United States is the largest developed country in the world. In 1910, the level of urbanization in the US had reached that of today's China. Based on the census data of the US, using the Rank-Size rule, this study analyzed the evolution of the urban system of the country in the 20th century, which may provide some implications for the development of the urban system in China and urban planning at the macro level. Results show that: between 1900 and 1970, the value of sloping index (q) presents a rising trend, which implies that the big cities grew more rapidly, compared with the small and medium-sized cities. And in the last 30 years of the 20th century, the cities developed more evenly. In China, during the process of rapid urbanization (1985-2000), urban population in small cities grew faster than that in big cities. Comparison of the urban systems of two countries shows that the large cities in China will have a big potential in terms of urban population growth.
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