20世纪90年代上海市人口分布变动及模拟
收稿日期: 2004-12-01
修回日期: 2005-04-20
网络出版日期: 2005-07-25
基金资助
教育部"十五"规划项目 (01JA840019)
Population Redistribution and Modelling of Shanghai City in the 1990s
Received date: 2004-12-01
Revised date: 2005-04-20
Online published: 2005-07-25
Supported by
The 10th Five-Year Plan Foundation of Ministry of Education of PRC, No.01JA840019
利用上海市1990年第四次、2000年第五次人口普查资料,运用4种不同的方法划分上海市区,分析了上海市1990~2000年的人口分布变动,模拟了1990年和2000年的人口分布模型。结果表明：从1990年到2000年的10年中,上海中心城人口大量减少,郊区人口增加,人口郊区化显著,上海人口分布变动趋于均衡;上海人口的郊迁扩散方式,主要与同心圆式的环形道路与放射形道路作为基本骨架的城市建设格局有密切关系,尤其是受早已建成的内环线的影响;上海人口郊区化主要表现为近域推进, 1990~2000年的圈层人口密度变动曲线的相交点大约在5 km处,圈层人口密度变化主要在16 km之内;对人口分布模型的模拟则表明,上海人口分布虽然符合负指数函数模型,但不是最优模型,上海人口密度分布的最优模型是Cubic函数。
高向东, 吴文钰 . 20世纪90年代上海市人口分布变动及模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2005 , 60(4) : 637 -644 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200504012
Using the data of the 4th and the 5th population censuses and four methods of dividing urban districts of Shanghai, the authors analyzed population redistribution from 1990 to 2000 and modelled population density distribution in 1990 and 2000. The results reflect a tendency of dramatic population decrease in central city and increase in suburban areas in the 1990s, a phenomenon of significant population suburbanization. During the 10 years, the population distribution of Shanghai becomes more homogeneous than before. The diffusion of population from city center to suburbs of Shanghai has a close relationship with the city's 'circle' construction pattern, especially with the inner ring road which had been built in the earlier years. The diffusion is also a short distance one, and the changes of population density occur mainly within a distance of 16 km. The result also indicates that Cubic model is the optimal one to describe population density distribution of Shanghai both in 1990 and 2000, and the exponential model is not the best.
Key words： 1990s; population distribution; modelling; Shanghai
[1] Alonso W. Location and Land Use. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1964.
[2] Muth R. The spatial structure of the housing market. Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, 1961, 7: 207-219.
[3] Muth R. Cities and Housing. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1969.
[4] Mills E S. Urban density functions. Urban Studies, 1970, 7: 5-20.
[5] Mills E S. Urban Economics. Scott. Foresman and Company, Glenview, IL, 1972.
[6] Clark C. Urban population densities. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1951, 114: 490-496.
[7] Newling B. The spatial variation of urban population densities. Geographical Review, 1969, 59: 242-252.
[8] Smeed R J. The effect of some kinds of routing systems on the amount of traffic in central areas of towns. Journal of the Institution of Highway Engineers, 1963, 10: 5-26.
[9] Anderson J E. Cubic spline urban density functions. Journal of Urban Economics, 1982, 12: 155-167.
[10] Anderson J E. The changing structure of a city: temporal changes in cubic spline density patterns. Journal of Regional Science, 1985, 25: 413-426.
[11] Wang F, Zhou Y. Modelling urban population densities in Beijing (1982-1990): suburbanisation and its causes. Urban Studies, 1999, 36: 271-288.
[12] Feng Jian, Zhou Yixing. The growth and distribution of population in Beijing metropolitan area (1982-2000). Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(6): 903-916.
[冯健, 周一星. 近20年来北京都市区人口增长与分布. 地理学报, 2003, 58(6): 903-916.]
[13] Feng Jian, Zhou Yixing. The latest development in demographic spatial distribution in Beijing in the 1990s. City Planning Review, 2003, 27(5): 55-62.
[冯健, 周一星. 1990年代北京市人口空间分布的最新变化. 城市规划, 2003, 27(5): 55-62.]
[14] Feng Jian, Zhou Yixing. The redistribution and suburbanization of urban population in Hangzhou city. City Planning Review, 2002, 26(1): 58-64.
[冯健, 周一星. 杭州市人口的空间变动与郊区化研究. 城市规划, 2002, 26(1): 58-64.]
[15] Feng J. Modeling the spatial distribution of urban population density and its evolution in Hangzhou. Geographical Research, 2002, 21(5): 635-646.
[冯健. 杭州市人口密度空间分布及其演化的模型研究. 地理研究, 2002, 21(5): 635-646.]
[16] Zhang Shanyu. The recent dramatic changes in population distribution of Shanghai Municipality. Population Study, 1999, 23(5): 16-24.
[张善余. 近年上海市人口分布态势的巨大变化. 人口研究, 1999, 23(5): 16-24.]
[17] Shen Jianfa, Wang Guixin. On the model of population distribution, changes and tendency of central city of Shanghai in 1990s. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2000, (5): 45-52.
[沈建法, 王桂新. 90年代上海中心城人口分布及其变动趋势的模型研究. 中国人口科学, 2000, (5): 45-52.]
[18] Gao Xiangdong, Jiang Quzhen. The redistribution of the population and suburbanization in Shanghai Municipality. City Planning Review, 2002, 26(1): 66-69.
[高向东, 江取珍. 对上海城市人口分布变动与郊区化的探讨. 城市规划, 2002, 26(1): 66-69.
[19] Gao Xiangdong. Population Redistribution and Suburbanization in Mega-cities. Shanghai: Fudan University Press, 2003. 109-120.
[高向东 著. 大城市人口分布变动与郊区化研究. 上海: 复旦大学出版社, 2003. 109-120.]
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |