基于土地利用的中国人口密度模拟
收稿日期: 2003-06-24
修回日期: 2003-08-18
网络出版日期: 2004-03-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(40371094)；国际科技合作重点项目(2001DFDF0004)
Simulation of Chinese Population Density Based on Land Use
Received date: 2003-06-24
Revised date: 2003-08-18
Online published: 2004-03-25
Supported by
National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, No.4037109; Major Project of International Cooperation on Science and Technology, No.2001DFDF0004
土地利用数据综合了影响人口分布的众多因素的信息。根据分县控制、分城乡、分区建模的思路，建立基于土地利用的中国1km栅格人口模型。对农村人口采用线性加权模型进行模拟，根据全国12个农业生态区内人口与各类农业用地之间的相关关系选取指标，采用逐步回归计算各指标的回归系数，并结合土地的生产力及其与人口的相关性，确定各指标的加权系数。对城市人口，建立基于城镇规模的人口距离衰减加幂指数模型。结果分析表明，“胡焕庸”线以东人口占全国的94.58%，人口密度是该线以西的21倍；东部人口集中于黄淮海地区、四川盆地、长江中下游、东北平原及沿海地区，东南沿海又表现为“点轴”分布的特点。验证表明，模拟结果具有较高的精度。
田永中,陈述彭,岳天祥,朱莉芬,王英安,范泽孟,马胜男 . 基于土地利用的中国人口密度模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2004 , 59(2) : 283 -292 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200402015
Land use data integrates lots of information of factors affecting population distribution. It is the nature of land, the household responsibility system, the household registration system, and the production mode of agriculture in China that establish a close spatial relation between land use and population distribution. According to the idea of modeling separately by town and country, by ecological zones along with the population of counties as restrictive conditions, we build the following model based on land use to simulate the population density in 1 km square grid-cells of China: POPij = Pir×Vjr/■Vjr + Piu×Vju/■Vju. Linear weighted model is used to calculate rural population indices. It firstly picks out the indicators for the model which are correlated positively and remarkably with the population of counties in each of the 12 ecological regions, then stepwise regression is introduced to calculate the indices; and finally the weighted coefficients of various indices are determined in combination with the productivity of land and the relations between habitation and variant land. For the urban population indices, a power exponential model based on the scale of town and the distance from the center of town, rooted in distance decay function, is built as Vij = Aj×lnAi×exp(-1.9874rj1.2Ai-0.6). The outcome of the simulation shows that 94.58% of the population inhabit in the southeast of Hu Huanyong population line, and its density is 21 times as that of the northwest. In the east, population is centralized in four regions and one zone. They are Huang-Huai-Hai plain, Sichuan basin, plains of the middle and lower Yangtze River, Northeast China plain and the zone of 100 km from coast. Moreover, a "points-axis" pattern of population distribution is discovered on the southeast coast. Because this paper has fully recognized the relation between land use and the population distribution, the outcome of the simulation proves to be highly credible. Compared with other models, this method is more efficient.
Key words： population density; land use; grid; population distribution; scale; distance decay model; China
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