1736年以来西安气候变化与农业收成的相关分析
收稿日期: 2003-01-03
修回日期: 2003-05-20
网络出版日期: 2003-09-25
基金资助
国家自然科学青年基金(49901001)；中国科学院知识创新工程项目 (KZCX2-314; KZCX3-SW-321)
Climate Change and Harvest in Xi'an since 1736: The High-resolution Data Derived from the Archives in the Qing Dynasty
Received date: 2003-01-03
Revised date: 2003-05-20
Online published: 2003-09-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.49901001; Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-314; No.KZCX3-SW-321
基于清代雨雪与农业收成等档案记载及现代气象观测记录，根据西安冬季降雪与平均气温之间的统计关系、降水入渗与水量平衡模型，分别重建了西安1736~2000年冬季平均气温与4季降水序列，并分析了该地区气候变化特征及其对1736~2000年农业收成的影响。主要结论如下：(1) 西安的冷暖变化存在明显的百年际波动：其中18世纪相对温暖，19世纪寒冷，20世纪又转为温暖，且增暖趋势极为明显。(2) 西安的降水变化存在明显的年代际波动。自1736年以来，共经历了6个多雨期与7个少雨期，其中多雨期的平均雨量比少雨期多16%。(3) 气候变化对农业收成的影响极为明显。其中夏季降水量与秋收关系显著，而夏收又与前一年秋~当年春季的降水明显相关，且大多数严重歉收年均由降水明显偏少而致。虽然温度的年际变化与收成没有显著的联系，但温度年代际变化，即气候的冷暖阶段变化却与收成的阶段性变化关系密切。
郝志新,郑景云,葛全胜 . 1736年以来西安气候变化与农业收成的相关分析[J]. 地理学报, 2003 , 58(5) : 735 -742 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200305012
Based on snow, rainfall and harvest archives records in the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911 AD), the modern meteorological observation data, the annual winter mean temperature and seasonal precipitation series from 1736 to 2000 and the series of harvest in summer and autumn from 1736 to 1910 are reconstructed. Meanwhile, the characteristics of climate change and the relationship between climate change and harvest are analyzed by using the high-resolution data. The results show: (1) Warm and cold changes in Xi'an have obvious inter-centennial fluctuation. Climate is relatively warm in the 18th century and cold in the 19th century, but turns warm with a rapid warming trend in the 20th century. (2) Precipitation changes have obvious inter-decadal fluctuation, experiencing six rainy periods and seven drought periods in Xi'an since 1736, in which the mean precipitation in the rainy periods is 16% more than that in drought periods. (3) The coefficients between the precipitation from June to August and the harvest in autumn are well correlated, and the precipitation during the period from September to May and the harvest in summer are remarkable.
Key words： climate change; harvest; high-resolution data; Qing Dynasty; Xi’an
[1] Duplessy J C, Overpeck J. The PAGES/CLIVAR INTERSECTION, Coordinated Research Objectives of the IGBP and WCRP Programs, Venice, Italy. 1994. 9.
[2] Eddy J A. The PAGES Project: Proposed Implementation Plans for Research Activities, IGBP of ICSU, Stockholm. 1992. 1-112.
[3] Zhang Zhiqiang, Sun Chengquan. New progresses of global change research in 10 years. Chinese Science Bulletin, 1999, 44(5): 464-477.
[张志强, 孙成权. 全球变化研究十年新进展. 科学通报, 1999, 44(5): 464-477.]
[4] NSFC. Global Change: Our Opportunity and Challenge. Beijing: China Higher Education Press; Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer-Verleg, 1998. 39-44; 52-56.
[国家自然科学基金委员会. 全球变化: 中国面临的机遇和挑战. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 1998. 39-44; 52-56.]
[5] Ye Duzheng, Chen Panqin. Chinese Primary Studies on Global Changes. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1992. 42-53.
[叶笃正, 陈泮勤. 中国的全球变化预研究. 北京: 地震出版社, 1992. 42-53.]
[6] Ye Duzheng. Chinese Primary Studies on Global Changes. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1992. 24-55.
[叶笃正. 中国的全球变化预研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 1992. 24-55.]
[7] Zhang Piyuan. Historical Climate Change of China. Jinan: Shandong Science and Technology Press, 1996. 195-440.
[张丕远. 中国历史气候变化. 山东: 山东科学技术出版社, 1996. 195-440.]
[8] Zhang Jiacheng. The Reconstruction of Climate in China for Historical Times. Beijing: Science Press, 1988. 1-174.
[9] Ge Quansheng, Zhang Piyuan. The evaluation on climatic information in the historical literature. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1990, 45(1): 24-29.
[葛全胜, 张丕远. 历史文献中气候信息的评价. 地理学报, 1990, 45(1): 24-29.]
[10] Pan Shouwen. Principle of Modern Climatology. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 1994. 580-585.
[潘守文. 现代气候学原理. 北京: 气象出版社. 1994, 580-585.]
[11] Lei Zhidong, Yang Shixiu, Xie Senchuan. Soil Water Dynamics. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 1988. 86-92.
[雷志栋, 杨诗秀, 谢森传. 土壤水动力学. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 1988. 86-92.]
[12] Shao Ming'an, Huang Mingbin. Soil and Root System Water Dynamics. Xi'an: Shaanxi Science and Technology Press, 2000. 83.
[邵明安, 黄明斌. 土—根系统水动力学. 西安: 陕西科学技术出版社, 2000. 83.]
[13] Zuo Dakang, Liu Changming. Collected Papers on the Water Balance of North China Plain and South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Beijing: Science Press, 1985. 117-118.
[左大康, 刘昌明. 华北平原水量平衡与南水北调研究文集. 北京: 科学出版社, 1985. 117-118.]
[14] Tan Guanri, Yan Jiyuan. Applied Climatology. Shanghai: Shanghai Science and Technology Press, 1985. 128-134.
[谭冠日, 严济远. 应用气候. 上海: 上海科学技术出版社, 1985. 128-134.]
[15] Zheng Sizhong, Feng Liwen. Historical evidence on climatic instability above normal in cool periods in China. Science in China (Series B), 1986, 29(4): 441-448.
[郑斯中, 冯丽文. 我国冷的时期气候超常不稳定的历史证据. 中国科学(B辑), 1985, (11): 1038-1044.]
[16] Liu Hongbin, Shao Xuemei, Huang Lei. Reconstruction of early summer drought indices in mid-north region of China after 1500 using tree ring chronologies. Quaternary Research, 2002, 22(3): 220-229.
[刘洪滨, 邵雪梅, 黄磊. 中国陕西关中及周边地区近500年来初夏干燥指数序列的重建. 第四纪研究, 2002, 22(3): 220-229.]
[17] Academy of Meteorological Science of Chinese Central Meteorological Administration. Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-year Period. Beijing: Cartographic Publishing House, 1981. 231-235.
[中央气象局气象科学研究院. 中国近500年旱涝分布图集. 北京: 地图出版社, 1981. 231-235.]
[18] Gong Gaofa, Zhang Piyuan, Wu Xiangding et al. Research Methods on Climate Changes in History. Beijing: Science Press, 1983. 5-10.
[龚高法, 张丕远, 吴祥定 等. 历史时期气候变化的研究方法. 北京: 科学出版社, 1983. 5-10.]
[19] Marks R B. It never used to snow: climatic variability and harvest yields in late-imperial south China, 1650-1680. In: Liu T J, Sediments of Time: Environment and Society in Chinese History. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998. 411-448.
[马立博. 南方向来无雪——帝制后期中国南方的气候与收成(1650-1850年). 见: 刘翠溶, 积渐所至——中国环境史论文集. 台北: 中央研究院经济研究所, 1995. 579-631.]
[20] Man Zhimin. Climatic background of the severe drought in 1877. Journal of Fudan University (Social Science), 2000, (6): 28-35.
[满志敏. 光绪三年北方大旱的气候背景. 复旦大学学报(社会科学版), 2000, (6), 28-35.]
[21] Zhang De'er. The method for reconstruction of climate series for the last 500 years and its reliability. Collected Papers of Meteorological Science and Technology, 1983, 4: 17-26.
[张德二. 重建近五百年气候序列的方法及其可靠性. 气象科学技术集刊, 1983, 4: 17-26.]
[22] Lin Zhenjie, Zheng Sizhong. Seasonal dryness/wetness index in different areas of Shandong for the last 500 years. In: Wu Xiangding, Collected Papers on Environmental Changes and Water-Sand Regularity in the Valley of Yellow River (series). Beijing: Geological Publishing House, 1991. 64-106.
[林振杰, 郑斯中. 山东省各地区近500年分季旱涝指数. 见: 吴祥定, 黄河流域环境演变与水沙运行规律研究文集(第二集). 北京: 地质出版社, 1991. 64-106.]
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |