近50余年来南海西沙海域冬季风强度的变率
收稿日期: 2003-01-11
修回日期: 2003-04-07
网络出版日期: 2003-09-25
基金资助
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G19990434); 国家科技部基础研究重大项目(2001CCB00100); 国家自然科学基金项目(40176031); 中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-SW-118; KZCX3-SW-120)
The Variability of Winter Monsoon Intensity in Xisha Waters, South China Sea for the Last More Than 50 Years
Received date: 2003-01-11
Revised date: 2003-04-07
Online published: 2003-09-25
Supported by
National Key Project for Basic Research, No.G19990434; Key Project of Ministry of Science and Technology for Basic Research, No.2001CCB00100; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40176031; Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX2-SW-118; No.KZCX3-SW-120
采用南海西沙永兴岛海洋观察站1958~1997年12~2月实测的北东向冬季风风速的平均值作为冬季风强度指数 (WMI)，与南海北缘滨珊瑚的相应年月份的实测δ18O平均值进行相关分析，得到线性回归方程WMI (m/s) = - 4.913- 2.138δ18O (‰)，r = 0.83, n = 40。在计算(后报) 所得的1944~1997年代际变化序列中，WMI在40~60年代呈下降趋势，70年代略有上升，而80~90年代又呈下降趋势。在年际变化序列中，WMI呈显著的下降趋势，所得线性回归方程为WMI = 79.67-0.0377 Year, r = 0.68, n = 54。由斜率看出，WMI每10年平均下降约0.4 m/s。用Daniell功率谱法分析，近54年来WMI的变化存在2.5~7年的周期，与季风的QBO周期为2~2.4年，以及ENSO活动的3~8年周期密切相关。WMI连续下降的趋势是与全球持续变暖相映，南海海域冬季风强度的变化受到了全球变化的制约。
彭子成,陈特固,聂宝符,刘桂建,贺剑峰,程继满 . 近50余年来南海西沙海域冬季风强度的变率[J]. 地理学报, 2003 , 58(5) : 721 -726 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200305010
We have used correlative analysis between 1958-1997 mean December-January- February NE winter monsoon velocities, measured at the Yongxing Island Observatory, as a winter monsoon intensity index (WMI) and mean δ18O data for corresponding months from Porites lutea coral, collected in the northern part of the South China Sea, to obtain a linear equation: WMI (m/s) = -4.913-2.138δ18O (‰), r = 0.83, n = 40. The high correlative coefficient between the above-mentioned two series of WMI and δ18O data is made by using high-pass filtering method. On the basis of the calculated WMI sequence from 1944 to 1977, the interdecadal variability shows that the WMI series decreases in the 1940s-1960s, slightly increases in the 1970s, but decreases again in the 1980s-1990s. The interannual variability reveals that the WMI series decreases obviously from 1944 to 1977 with the correlative equation of WMI (m/s) = 79.69-0.0377 Year, r = 0.68, n = 54. The linear slope is negative, which means that the WMI series decreases by about 0.4 m/s every 10 years. The power-spectral analysis displays that a 54-year WMI series is provided with periodicity of a 2.5-7 year band, which is related to the QBO band of 2-2.4 years and ENSO band of 3-8 years. Therefore, it can be considered that the winter monsoon variability in the South China Sea is also controlled by the global change.
Key words： coral; δ18O values; winter monsoon; South China Sea
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