近20年来北京都市区人口增长与分布
收稿日期: 2003-05-10
修回日期: 2003-09-07
网络出版日期: 2003-11-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国城市变化及其自组织演化的空间动力学”
The Growth and Distribution of Population in Beijing Metropolitan Area (1982-2000)
Received date: 2003-05-10
Revised date: 2003-09-07
Online published: 2003-11-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China,“Studies on Urban Changes and Dynamics of Self-Organizing Cities of China ”
利用第5次人口普查数据，研究1982~2000年北京都市区人口增长与分布规律。首先分析都市区人口增长特征，并提炼不同阶段人口增长的空间模型，发现：开始于20世纪80年代的人口郊区化，在90年代幅度加大；80年代北京都市区人口空间增长过程的相似性大于差异性，整体上呈现出一定的同质性特点；而90年代则差异性大于相似性，异质性特征日渐突出。继而，通过数学模型的回归研究北京都市区人口分布及空间结构的演化趋势。单核心模型的回归表明，Clark模型在拟合北京城市人口分布方面占据优势，而Smeed模型拟合都市区人口分布的效果更好，参数变化说明当前郊区化的主体仍属“近郊化”。多核心模型的回归表明，1990年都市区双中心结构刚刚发育，2000年多核心结构比较明显但并不成熟；主要的次中心在影响人口分布方面起到重要作用。近20年来，基于人口分布的北京都市区空间结构渐趋复杂。
冯健,周一星 . 近20年来北京都市区人口增长与分布[J]. 地理学报, 2003 , 58(6) : 903 -916 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200306014
Using the latest data of the fifth census, the authors try to find some laws of the growth and distribution of population in Beijing Metropolitan Area from 1982 to 2000. First of all, the characteristics of population growth in Beijing Metropolitan Area are analyzed and the spatial models of population growth of different periods are drawn. The authors find that suburbanization happened in the 1980s, and quickened its step in the 1990s. The progress of population growth in the 1980s is homogeneous, because types of spatial change of population are less and similarity is more than difference, while that in the 1990s is heterogeneous, because there are more types and difference is more than similarity. Then regression of mathematical models is used to study the distribution of population and the evolution of spatial structure of Beijing Metropolitan Area. In Beijing, the model of Clark can describe population densities of urban areas well, while the model of Smeed can describe those of metropolitan area well. The changes of some parameters indicate that suburbanization in Beijing is still in the primary phase, and that the main way of suburbanization is not the outer one but the inner one. Based on the regression of multi-nuclear model, the authors find that a multi-nuclear spatial structure of Beijing Metropolitan Area did not exist in 1982, that a two-nuclear one appeared in 1990, and that a multi-nuclear one developed in 2000, which was not ripe compared with that in the western cities.
[1] Benguigui L, Czamanski D, Marinov M. City growth as a leap-frogging process: an application to the Tel-Aviv metropolis. Urban Studies, 2001, 38(10): 1819-1839.
[2] Lutz J M. Determinants of population growth in urban centers in the Republic of Ireland. Urban Studies, 2001, 38(8): 1329-1340.
[3] Mayer C J. Residential construction: using the urban growth model to estimate housing supply. Journal of Urban Economics, 2000, 48: 85-109.
[4] Tammaru T. Suburban growth and suburbanisation under central planning: the case of Soviet Estonia. Urban Studies, 2001, 38(8): 1341-1357.
[5] Bontje M. Dealing with deconcentration: population deconcentration and planning response in polynucleated urban regions in North-west Europe. Urban Studies, 2001, 38(3): 769-785
[6] Champion A G. A changing demographic regime and evolving polycentric urban regions: consequences for the size, composition and distribution of city populations. Urban Studies, 2001, 38(4): 657-677.
[7] Cervero R, Rood T, Appleyard B. Tracking accessibility: employment and housing opportunities in the San Francisco bay area. Environment and Planning A, 1999, 31: 1259-1278.
[8] Walks R A. The social ecology of the post-Fordist/global city? Economic restructuring and socio-spatial polarization in the Toronto urban region. Urban Studies, 2001, 38(3): 407-447.
[9] Craig S G. Using quantile smoothing splines to identify employment subcenters in a multicentric urban area. Journal of Urban Economics, 2001, 49: 100-120.
[10] Coffey W J, Drolet R, Polèse M. The intrametopolitan location of high order services: patterns, factors and mobility in Montreal. The Journal of Regional Science Association International, 1996, 75(3), 293-323.
[11] Pfister N, Freestone R, Murphy P. Polycentricity or dispersion? changes in center employment in Metropolitan Sydney, 1981 to 1996. Urban Geography, 2000, 21(5): 428-442.
[12] Coffey W J, Shearmur R G. Agglomeration and dispersion of high-order service employment in the Monstreal Metropolitan Region, 1981-96. Urban Studies, 2002, 39(3): 359-378.
[13] Filion P, Bunting T, Warriner K. The entrenchment of urban dispersion: residential preferences and location patterns in the dispersed city. Urban Studies, 1999, 36(8): 1317-1347
[14] Bunting T E, Filion P. Dispersed city form in Canada: a kitchener CMA case example. The Canadian Geographer, 1999, 43(3): 268-287.
[15] Carlino G A. From centralization to decentralization: people and jobs spread out. Business Review, 2000 (November/December): 15-27.
[16] Garreau J. Edge City. New York, NY: Doubleday, 1991.
[17] Stanback T M. The New Suburbanization. Boulder, CO: Westview, 1991.
[18] McDonald J F. Employment subcenters and subsequent real estate development in suburban Chicago. Journal of Urban Economics, 2000, 48: 135-157.
[19] Coffey W J, Shearmur R G. Intrametropolitan employment distribution in Monstreal, 1981-1996. Urban Geography, 2001, 22(2): 106-129.
[20] Coffey W J, Shearmur R G. The identification of employment centers in Canadian metropolitan areas: the examples of Monstreal, 1996. The Canadian Geographer, 2001, 45(3): 371-386.
[21] Small K A, Song S. Population and employment densities: structure and change. Journal of Urban Economics, 1994, 36: 292-313.
[22] Pacione M. Urban Geography: A Global Perspective. New York, NY: Routledge, 2000.
[23] Zhou Y X, Ma L J C. Economic restructuring and suburbanization in China. Urban Geography, 2000, 21(3): 205-236.
[24] Zhou Y X, Meng Y C. Shenyang's suburbanization: with a comparison of suburbanization between China and the West. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1997, 52(4): 289-299.
[周一星, 孟延春. 沈阳的郊区化: 兼论中西方郊区化的比较. 地理学报, 1997, 52(4): 289-299.]
[25] Hu X W, Zhou Y X, Gu C L. On the spatial agglomeration and dispersion in China's coastal city-and-town concentrated areas. Beijing: Science Press, 2000.
[胡序威, 周一星, 顾朝林. 中国沿海城镇密集地区空间集聚与扩散研究. 北京: 科学出版社, 2000.]
[26] Gu C L. Chinese Urban Geography. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 1999.
[顾朝林. 中国城市地理. 北京: 商务印书馆, 1999.]
[27] Zhou Y X, Meng Y C. On Beijing's suburbanization and its countermeasures. Beijing: Science Press, 2000.
[周一星, 孟延春. 北京的郊区化及其对策. 北京: 科学出版社, 2000.]
[28] Zong Y G, Zhou S Y, Zhang Z S et al. Spatial Characteristics of suburbanization and its developing strategies in Beijing. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(2): 135-142.
[宗跃光, 周尚意, 张振世等. 北京城郊化空间特征与发展对策. 地理学报, 2002, 57(2): 135-142.]
[29] Feng J et al. The spatial redistribution and suburbanization of urban population in Hangzhou City. City Planning Review, 2002, 26(1): 58-65.
[冯健 等. 杭州市人口的空间变动与郊区化研究. 城市规划, 2002, 26(1): 58-65.]
[30] Zhang T W. The urban restructuring of Chinese cities in 1990s and its dynamic mechanism. City Planning Review, 2001, 25(7): 7-14.
[张庭伟. 1990年代中国城市空间结构的变化及其动力机制. 城市规划, 2001, 25(7): 7-14.]
[31] Feng J. Spatial-temporal evolution of urban morphology and land use structure in Hangzhou. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(3): 343-353.
[冯健. 杭州城市形态和土地利用结构的时空演化. 地理学报, 2003, 58(3): 343-353.]
[32] Smith B E. A review of monocentric urban density analysis. Journal of Planning Literature, 1997, 12(2): 115-135.
[33] Wang F H, Zhou Y X. Modeling urban population densities in Beijing 1982-90: suburbanisation and its causes. Urban Studies, 1999, 36(2): 271-287.
[34] McDonald J, Prather P. Suburban employment centers: the case of Chicago. Urban Studies, 1994, 31: 201-218.
[35] Wang F H, Meng Y C. Analyzing urban population change patterns in Shenyang, China 1982-90: density function and spatial association approaches. Geographic Information Sciences, 1999, 5 (2): 121-130.
[36] Feng J. Modeling the spatial distribution of urban population density and its evolution in Hangzhou. Geographical Research, 2002, 21(5): 635-646.
[冯健. 杭州市人口密度空间分布及其演化的模型研究. 地理研究, 2002, 21(5): 635-646.]
[37] Parr J B, O'Neill G J. Aspects of lognormal function in the analysis of regional population distribution. Environment and Planning A, 1989, 21: 961-973.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |