Palmer干旱指数、地表湿润指数与降水距平的比较
收稿日期: 2003-02-17
修回日期: 2003-07-20
网络出版日期: 2003-12-25
基金资助
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1999043405);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (ZKCX2-SW-210)
Comparison of Palmer Drought Severity Index, Percentage of Precipitation Anomaly and Surface Humid Index
Received date: 2003-02-17
Revised date: 2003-07-20
Online published: 2003-12-25
Supported by
National Key Planning Development for Basic Research, No.G1999043405; Knowlege Innovation Project of CAS, No ZKCX2-SW-210
利用中国气象局整编的1951年1月~1999年12月中国160站气温、降水月平均资料,计算了我国160站近49年逐月帕尔默干旱指数、地表湿润指数和降水距平百分率。对比研究表明:PDSI指数和地表湿润指数能抓住降水是干旱最重要的决定因素这一特征,并且,能反映出干旱过程具有更大的时空尺度。在实际蒸发较大的地区,PDSI指数比降水距平百分率描述干旱强度更准确。对于华北地区,在20世纪80年代以前,降水偏多,气温偏低,最大潜在蒸发较小,处于相对湿润的时段;80年代以后,降水偏少,加之气温的升高,华北的干旱越来越严重。
关键词: Palmer干旱指数; 地表湿润指数; 降水距平百分率; 中国
卫捷,马柱国 . Palmer干旱指数、地表湿润指数与降水距平的比较[J]. 地理学报, 2003 , 58(7s) : 117 -124 . DOI: 10.11821/xb20037s014
The monthly PDSI, surface moisture index and percentage of precipitation anomaly are calculated for the past 49 years with data from 160 stations in China. The result shows that PDSI and surface moisture index can grasp rainfall, a decisive factor of drought. Moreover, they reflect the process of drought on a greater space and time scale. In the region with more actual evaporation, PDSI describes the severity of drought more precisely than percentage of precipitation anomaly. In North China, before the 1980s, the rainfall was more sufficient, the temperature was higher and the potential evaporation was lower. It was a relatively moist period. Since the 1980s, the rainfall has been less sufficient together with higher temperature, the drought in North China has become more and more severe.
[1] Ye Duzheng, Huang Ronghui. Investigation on Laws and Causes of Droughts and Floods in the Yellow and Yangtze River Valleys of China. Jinan: Shandong Science and Technology Press, 1996.
[叶笃正, 黄荣辉. 长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究. 济南: 山东科学技术出版社, 1996.]
[2] Ye Duzheng, Huang Ronghui (eds.). The Climate Research of Drought and Flood. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 1990.
[叶笃正, 黄荣辉 主编. 旱涝气候研究进展. 北京: 气象出版社, 1990.]
[3] Sun Shuqing. A study on the features of driught and flood in north China in recent 50 years and relations between them and global changes. Plateau Meteorology, 1999, 18(4): 541-551.
[孙淑清. 近50年来华北地区旱涝特征与全球变化的研究及对未来趋势的探讨. 高原气象, 1999, 18(4): 541-551.]
[4] Van Rooy M P. A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space. Notos, 1965, (14): 43.
[5] Bhalme H N, D A Mooley. Large-scale drought/floods and monsoon circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1980, 108: 1197-1211.
[6] N B Guttman. Comparing the Palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1998, 34: 113-121.
[7] Palmer W C. Meteorological Drought. U. S. Weather Bureau. Res. Pap., 1965, 45: 1-58.
[8] Shafer B A, L E Dezman. Development of a surface water supply index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snow pack runoff areas. Proc. Western Snow Conf., 1982. 164-175.
[9] Weghorst K M. The reclamation drought index: guidelines and practical applications. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver. CO 1996. 6.
[10] Byun Hi-Ryong, Donald A Wilhith. Objective quantification of drought severity and duration. J. Climate, 1999, 12: 2747-2755.
[11] Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. Trend of surface humid index in the arid area of northern China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2001, 59(6): 737-746.
[马柱国, 符淙斌. 中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析. 气象学报, 2001, 59(6): 737-746.]
[12] Cook E R et al. Drought reconstructions for continental United States. J. Climate, 1999, 12: 1145-1163.
[13] Aiguo Dai, Kevin E Trenberth, Thomas R Karl. Global variations in droughts and wet spells. Geophysical Research Letters, 1998, 25(17): 3367-3370.
[14] An Shunqing, Xing Jiuxing. Modification of Palmer drought severity model. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Press, 1986, 1(1): 75-82.
[安顺清, 邢久星. 帕尔默旱度模式的修正. 气象科学研究院院刊, 1986, 1(1): 75-82.]
[15] Alley W M. The Palmer severity drought index: limitations and assumptions. J. Climiate Appl. Meteor., 1984, 23: 1100-1109.
/
〈 | 〉 |