利用树轮重建秦岭地区历史时期 初春温度变化
收稿日期: 2003-02-18
修回日期: 2003-06-03
网络出版日期: 2003-11-25
基金资助
国家“十五”科技攻关项目(2001BA611B-01);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX3-SW-321)
Reconstruction of Early-Spring Temperature of Qinling Mountains Using Tree-Ring Chronologies
Received date: 2003-02-18
Revised date: 2003-06-03
Online published: 2003-11-25
Supported by
National Key Project for the Tenth Five Year Plan, No. 2001BA611B-01; Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No. KZ CX3-SW-321
采用树木年轮气候学方法,利用秦岭地区树轮长年表资料重建秦岭地区历史时期初春温度,表明各气象站点重建序列与器测序列均呈显著的正相关关系,其中重建序列与实测记录的相关系数最高可达0.7以上,其他站的相关系数取值也均接近或超过0.6,说明重建序列能较好地反映秦岭地区的初春温度变化。对重建序列的分析结果表明,近300年来秦岭地区的初春温度变化存在明显的冷暖时段:1715~1740年、1773~1804年和1893~1958年三个时段的初春温度相对较高,持续时间分别为26年、32年和66年;而1741~1772年、1805~1892年、1959~1992年三个时段的初春温度相对较低,持续时间分别为32年、88年和34年,在整体上具有升温快速降温缓慢的特征。重建结果的变化趋势与其他相关研究结果极为一致。但是在20世纪后期,无论是在重建序列还是在器测序列中至少到1992年均未反映出明显的增温趋势。秦岭西部地区初春季节变冷与增暖的幅度均大于秦岭中东部地区。此外,秦岭地区初春温度变化具有100年左右、50~60年、7~8年以及2~3年等准周期变化特征。
刘洪滨,邵雪梅 . 利用树轮重建秦岭地区历史时期 初春温度变化[J]. 地理学报, 2003 , 58(6) : 879 -884 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200306011
In this paper, tree ring chronologies were used to reconstruct early-spring temperature in the Qinling Mountains of China. The reconstructed series and the instrument data are well correlated, which the maximum correlation coefficient is up to 0.7 at Zhen'an meteorological station, and that of other stations are above 0.6. So the early-spring temperature changes are well reflected by the reconstructed series in this region. Three warm periods, which are from 1715 to 1740, from 1773 to 1804 and from 1893 to 1958, with 26-year, 32-year and 66-year durations respectively, could be detected in the last 300 years, and three cool periods, which are from 1741 to 1772, from 1805 to 1892 and from 1959 to 1992, with 32-year, 88-year and 34-year durations respectively, could also be detected. It is showed that the early-spring temperature in the region increases quickly and decreases slowly, with changes being consistent with the consequences of other researches. Neither the reconstructed series nor the instrument data has significant warming trend before 1992 in the latter part of the 20th century. For the extent of warm or cool period, the early-spring temperature of the west Qinling Mountains is larger than that of the east. The 100-year, 50 to 60-year, 7 to 8-year and 2 to 3-year period cycles can be detected in the reconstructed early-spring temperature series.
Key words: climate change; Qinling Mountains; tree-rings; chronologies
[1] Houghton J T. Climate Change 2001. The Press Syndicate of Cambridge University, 2001. 105-130.
[2] Wu X. Application of tree ring analysis to the study on environment variation. Quaternary Sciences, 1990, 10(2): 188-196.
[吴祥定. 树木年轮分析在环境变化研究中的应用. 第四纪研究, 1990, 10(2): 188-196.]
[3] Wu X, Shao X. Status of dendroclimatological study and its prospects in China. Advance in Earth Sciences, 1993, 8(6): 31-35.
[吴祥定, 邵雪梅. 中国树木年轮气候学研究动态与展望. 地球科学进展, 1993, 8(6): 31-35.]
[4] Briffa K R, Osborn T J, Schweingruber F H et al. Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2001, 106(D3): 2929-2941.
[5] Gervais B R, MacDonald G M. A 403-year record of July temperatures and treeline dynamics of Pinus sylvestris from the Kola Peninsula, northwest Russia. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2000, 32(3): 295-302.
[6] Chen M. Climate and Agriculture in Qinling Mountains. Xi'an: Shaanxi People's Press, 1983.
[陈明荣. 秦岭的气候与农业. 西安: 陕西人民出版社, 1983.]
[7] Wu X, Shao X. A preliminary analysis on response of tree-ring density to climate in the Qinling Mountains of China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1994, 5(2): 253-256.
[吴祥定, 邵雪梅. 中国秦岭地区树木年轮密度对气候响应的初步分析. 应用气象学报, 1994, 5(2): 253-256.]
[8] Wu X. Tree-ring width chronologies and their response to climate in the Qinling Mountains.TAO, 1994, 5(3): 365-372.
[9] Hughes M K, Wu X, Shao X et al. A preliminary reconstruction of rainfall in North-Central China since A.D. 1600 from tree-ring density and width. Quaternary Research, 1994, 42: 88-99.
[10] Shao X, Wu X. Tree-ring chronologies for Pinus Armandi Franch from Huashan, China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1994, 49(2): 174-181.
[邵雪梅, 吴祥定. 华山树木年轮年表的建立. 地理学报, 1994, 49(2): 174-181.]
[11] Shao X. Radial growth of Huashan Pine and its response to climate. J of Chinese Geography, 1994, 4(3/4): 88-102.
[12] Yin X. Modeling analysis of Huashan pine growth response to climate. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1995, 6(3): 257-264.
[尹训钢. 华山松树木年轮对气候响应的模拟分析. 应用气象学报, 1995, 6(3): 257-264.]
[13] Liu H, Shao X, Huang L. Reconstruction of early-summer drought indices in mid-north region of China after 1500 using tree ring chronologies. Quaternary Sciences, 2002, 22(3), 220-229.
[刘洪滨, 邵雪梅, 黄磊. 中国陕西关中及周边地区近500年来初夏干燥指数序列的重建. 第四纪研究, 2002, 22(3), 220-229.]
[14] Liu H, Shao X. Tree ring width chronologies of Zhen'an and Foping, Qinling Mountains region. Quaternary Sciences, 2003, 23(2): 235.
[刘洪滨, 邵雪梅. 秦岭镇安和佛坪地区树轮宽度年表的建立. 第四纪研究, 2003, 23(2): 235.]
[15] Liu H, Shao X. Reconstruction of early-spring temperature at Zhen'an from 1755 using tree ring chronology. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2000, 58(2): 223-233.
[刘洪滨, 邵雪梅. 采用秦岭冷杉年轮宽度重建陕西镇安1775年以来的初春温度. 气象学报, 2000, 58(2): 223-233.]
[16] Liu Y, Ma L, Cai Q et al. Reconstruction of March to April temperature using tree ring data of Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi Province. Progress in Natural Science, 2001, 11(2): 157-162.
[刘禹, 马利民, 蔡秋芳等. 依据陕西秦岭镇安树木年轮重建3~4月份气温序列. 自然科学进展, 2001, 11(2): 157-162.]
[17] Liu Y, Ma J, Hughes M K et al. Seasonal temperature reconstruction from central China based on tree ring data. Palaeobotanist, 2001, 50: 89-94.
[18] Liu H, Shao X. Reconstruction of January to April mean temperature at Foping, Qinling Mts. from 1789 to 1992 using tree ring chronologies. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2003, 14(2): 188-196.
[刘洪滨, 邵雪梅. 秦岭南坡佛坪1789年以来1~4月平均温度重建. 应用气象学报, 2003, 14(2): 188-196.]
[19] Cook E R. A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization. USA: University of Arizona, Ph.D. Dissertation. 1985.
[20] Mann H B. Non-parametric test of randomness against trend. Ekonometrika, 13: 245-259.
[21] Kohler M A. On the use of double-mass analysis for testing the consistency of meteorological records and for making required adjustment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1949, 82: 96-97.
[22] Fritts H C. Tree Rings and Climate. London: Academic Press, 1976. 254-260.
[23] Walpol R E. Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists. New York: Macmillan Publishing Company, 1985.
[24] Yin X, Liu H, Shao X. Flow analysis of climate reconstruction program using tree ring chronologies. Collection of researches on climate change and numerical modeling I, edited by Programme 85-913-02 Committee. Beijing: Meteorology Press, 1996. 116-126.
[尹训钢, 刘洪滨, 邵雪梅. 用树木年轮重建过去气候模型程序的流程分析. 见: 85-913项目02课题 编, 气候变化规律及其数值模拟研究论文 (第一集). 北京: 气象出版社, 1996. 116-126.]
[25] Wigley T M L, Briffa K R, Jones P D. On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 1984, 23: 201-213.
[26] Wang S. Studies on climate of the Little Ice Age. Quaternary Sciences, 15(3): 202-212.
[王绍武. 小冰期气候的研究. 第四纪研究, 1995, 15(3): 202-212.]
[27] Wang S. Construction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in China. Quarterly J of Applied Mete., 1998, 9(4): 392-401.
[王绍武. 近百年中国年气温序列的建立. 应用气象学报, 1998, 9(4): 392-401.]
[28] Lin X, Yu Q. Series of average air temperature over China for the last 100-year period. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1995, 19(5): 525-534.
[林学椿, 于淑秋. 中国近百年温度序列. 大气科学, 1995, 19(5): 525-534.]
/
〈 | 〉 |