长江干流径流的时序结构与长期记忆
收稿日期: 2005-08-11
修回日期: 2005-11-03
网络出版日期: 2006-01-25
基金资助
中国科学院知识创新重要方向性项目(KZCX3-SW-331), 国家自然科学基金(40371112)
Structure and Long-term Memory of Discharge Series in Yangtze River
Received date: 2005-08-11
Revised date: 2005-11-03
Online published: 2006-01-25
Supported by
Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX3-SW-331; National Natural Science Fund, No.40371112
基于宜昌、汉口、大通3个典型控制站的长期月径流序列，本文采用奇异谱分析方法、消除波动趋势法 (DFA) 等手段，识别长江干流径流序列的趋势、突变、周期振荡等时序结构及其长期记忆特征。主要结论有：①长江干流径流序列存在明显的准15年周期振荡特征，该周期振荡1970s以来受到某种扰动而弱化；② 宜昌站径流序列于1926 年、1970 年发生两次突变，均以径流减少为特征；汉口站径流序列于1955a发生突变，也以径流减少为特征；大通站径流于1955年、1988年发生两次突变，前者以径流减少为特征，后者以增加为特征；③ 长江干流月径流序列存在较强的确定性成分，长期记忆特征明显；集水面积越大，径流序列的长期记忆越强，表现出明显的记忆累积效应。
王国杰, 姜彤, 陈桂亚 . 长江干流径流的时序结构与长期记忆[J]. 地理学报, 2006 , 61(1) : 47 -56 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200601005
Based on the long-term monthly discharge series of Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations, this paper has explored the discharge series structure of periodicity, trend and abrupt changes as well as its long-term momery with Singular Spectum Analysis, and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in employment. The results revealed that: 1) there is a significant 15a periodicity in the discharge series of the Yangtze River, and the 15a periodicity has been disturbed since the 1970s; 2) two abrupt and negative changes of Yichang series respectively in 1926 and 1970 have been detected in Hankou series in 1954; two abrupt changes occurred in Datong series respectively in 1955 and 1988, the former negative and the latter positive; and 3) the performance of DFA revealed a long memory in the discharge series of the Yangtze River, and the larger the upslope contributing area is, the stronger the long memory, which exhibits a cumulative effect.
Key words： discharge series; time series structure; long-term memory; Yangtze River
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