阿克苏河流域的面雨量序列及其与径流关系
收稿日期: 2006-03-26
修回日期: 2006-05-28
网络出版日期: 2006-07-25
基金资助
科技部社会公益研究专项 (2004DIB3J118; 2005DIB6J113); 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金 (SQJ2004003)
Estimation of Areal Precipitation Series and Its Relation to Runoff in Aksu River Basin
Received date: 2006-03-26
Revised date: 2006-05-28
Online published: 2006-07-25
Supported by
Special Fund for Public Good Project of Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2004DIB3J118; No.2005DIB6J113; China Desert Meteorological Science Research Fund, No. SQJ2004003
以数字高程模型 (DEM) 的1km×1km网格数据为基础,对阿克苏河流域14个气象站和水文站的1961~2000年的年降水资料进行了自然正交分解 (EOF),通过回归分析,建立主要特征向量与地理因子的插值模型,给出了一个面雨量序列的计算方法,为建立气候要素的区域平均序列提供了一个有效的解决方案,并由此推算出年阿克苏流域平均年降水量的空间分布以及面雨量序列。径流量与面雨量之比 (R/P) 平均为0.43,最高为0.69 (1997年),最低为0.30 (1963年)。计算出的阿克苏河流域面雨量序列与阿克苏河实测径流量序列的趋势变化率分别为5.79×108 m3/10a和4.29×108 m3/10a,两者均表现出增加趋势,但面雨量的增加速率要比径流量大一些,年际变化幅度也要大,面雨量和径流量的变差系数Cv值分别为0.17和0.13。阿克苏河年径流量的变化与夏季0oC层高度、年面雨量有着十分密切的关系,表明20世纪90年代以来新疆气候的变化是阿克苏河流域径流稳定增加的一个非常重要的因素。
杨青,孙除荣,史玉光,毛纬绎,李扬 . 阿克苏河流域的面雨量序列及其与径流关系[J]. 地理学报, 2006 , 61(7) : 697 -704 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200607003
Based on Digital Elevation Model with a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km, the data of annual precipitation obtained from 12 meteorological and 2 hydrological stations (1961-2000) in the Aksu river catchment was filtered using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF). Through regression analysis, an interpolation model between the main characteristic vectors of EOF and geographical parameters was established. The annual areal precipitation was calculated from this model, and it is proved to be an efficient scheme to establish areal mean series of climate element. As a result, the annual areal precipitation and its spatial distribution are calculated on the grids that covered the basin. Point estimates were verified against meteorological or hydrological station data. The ratio (R/P) of the runoff of the Aksu river and calculated areal precipitation is 0.43 on average, the maximum is 0.69 (1997) and the minimum 0.30 (1963). The rates of changing trends of calculated areal precipitation and the observed runoff of Aksu river were 5.79×108 m3/10a and 4.29×108 m3/10a respectively, and both of them presented an increasing trend. The annual changing trend and extent of the areal precipitation are higher than those of the runoff. Both of their coefficients of variation (Cv) are 0.17 and 0.13, respectively. There is a close relationship between the annual runoff and annual areal precipitation and 0oC level height in summer. So the climate change after the 1990s in Xinjiang was the main cause for stable runoff increase in the Aksu river basin.
Key words: areal precipitation; runoff; climate change; Aksu river basin
[1] Hu Ruji. Physical Geography of the Tianshan Mountains in China. Beijing: China Environmental Science Press, 2004.
[胡汝骥. 中国天山自然地理. 北京: 中国环境科学出版社, 2004.]
[2] Shi Yafeng, Shen Yongping, Hu Ruji. Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in Northwest China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2002, 24(3): 219-226.
[施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3): 219-226.]
[3] Yang Qing, Wei Wenshou. The climate change and the analysis on the trend in Xinjiang since recent 40 years. In: Proceedings of the Symposium on Climate Change and Ecological Environment. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2004. 202-209.
[杨青, 魏文寿. 新疆现代气候变化特征及趋势分析. 见: 气候变化与生态环境研讨会论文集. 北京: 气象出版社, 2004. 202-209.]
[4] Amani A, Lebel T. Relationship between point rainfall, average sampled rainfall and ground truth at the event scale in the Sahel. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, 1998, 12:141-154.
[5] Hewitson B C, Crane R G. Gridded area-averaged daily precipitation via conditional interpolation. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18(1): 41-57.
[6] Johansson B, Chen D. The influence of wind and topography on precipitation distribution in Sweden: statistical analysis and modeling. International Journal of Climatology, 2003, 23: 1523-1535.
[7] Johansson B, Chen D. Estimation of areal precipitation for runoff modelling using wind data: a case study in Sweden. Climate Research, 2005, 29(7): 53-61.
[8] . Wang D H, Michael B Smith. Statistical comparison of mean areal precipitation estimates from Wsr-88d, Operational and Historical Gage Networks, Presented at 15th Conference on Hydrology, AMS, January 9-14, 2000, Long Beach, CA.
[9] Narayan Pokhrel. Study of areal precipitation distribution pattern in the Chepe Catchment, Nepal. International Conference on Hydrology: Science & Practice for the 21st Century 12-16 July 2004, London.
[10] Fang Ci'an, Pan Zhixiang. Comparison of calculation of methods river valley area rainfall. Meteorological Monthly, 2003, 29(7): 23-26.
[方慈安, 潘志祥. 几种流域面雨量计算方法的比较. 气象, 2003, 29(7): 23-26.]
[11] Yang Yang, Fang Qinsheng. Area precipitation analysis in geographical information system (ILWIS). Hydrology, 1997, (6): 24-27.
[杨扬, 方勤生. 利用地理信息系统软件计算面雨量. 水文, 1997, (6): 24-27.]
[12] Li Fei, Tian Wanshun. Algorithms of area rainfall. Meteorology Journal of Henan, 2003, (3): 20-21.
[李飞, 田万顺. 流域面雨量的计算方法. 河南气象, 2003, (3): 20-21.]
[13] Li Jiantong, Zhang Peichang. Optimum interpolation method used for measuring regional precipitation with weather radar. Journal of Oceangraphy in Taiwan Strait, 1996, 15(3): 255-259.
[李建通, 张陪昌. 最优插值法用于天气雷达测定区域降水量. 台湾海峡, 1996, 15(3): 255-259.]
[14] Zhang Lianqiang, Zhao Youzhong, Ouyang Zongji et al. Studies on local distribution of precipitation in mountainous areas calculated with geographic factors. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 1996, 17(2): 6-10.
[张连强, 赵有中, 欧阳宗继 等. 运用地理因子推算山区局地降水量的研究. 中国农业气象, 1996, 17(2): 6-10.]
[15] Xu Jing, Lin Jian. Calculating method of area rainfall over seven river valleys and its application. Meteorological Monthly, 2001, 27(11): 13-16.
[徐晶, 林建. 七大江河流域面雨量计算方法及应用. 气象, 2001, 27(11): 13-16.]
[16] Zhou Xiaolan, Zhang Liping, Wang Renqiao et al. Application of optimum correction method to forecasting of heavy area rainfall over the upper reaches of Changjiang River. Meteorological Monthly, 2003, 29(3): 31-33.
[周筱兰, 张礼平, 王仁乔 等. 应用最优化订正法制作长江上游面雨量预报. 气象, 2003, 29(3): 31-33.]
[17] Bi Baogui, Xu Jing. Method of area rainfall calculation and its application to Haihe valley. Meteorological Monthly, 2003, 29(8): 39-42.
[毕宝贵, 徐晶. 面雨量计算方法及其在海河流域的应用. 气象, 2003, 29(8): 39-42.]
[18] Qin Chengping, Ju Zhigang. Calculating method of area rainfall over Qingjiang and Changjiang valleys and its application. Journal of Hubei Meteorology, 1999, (4): 16-18.
[秦承平, 居志刚. 清江和长江干支流域面雨量计算方法及其应用. 湖北气象, 1999, (4): 16-18.]
[19] Zhu Huiyi, Jia Shaofeng. Uncertainty in the spatial interpolation of rainfall data. Progress in Geography, 2004, 23(2): 34-42.
[朱会义, 贾绍凤. 降雨信息空间插值的不确定性分析. 地理科学进展, 2004, 23(2): 34-42.]
[20] Jiang Yan, Zhou Chenghu. Analysis on the characteristics of runoff time series in Akesu Basin. Progress in Geography, 2005, 24(1): 87-96.
[蒋艳, 周成虎. 新疆阿克苏河流域年径流时序特征分析. 地理科学进展, 2005, 24(1): 87-96.]
[21] Lin Zhonghui, Mo Xingguo, Li Hongxuan et al. Comparison of three spatial interpolation methods for climate variable in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(1): 47-56.
[林忠辉, 莫兴国, 李宏轩 等. 中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值. 地理学报, 2002, 57(1): 47-56.]
[22] Shen Yongping, Liu Shiyin. Glacier mass balance change in Tailanhe River watersheds on the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and its impact on water resources. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2003, 25(2): 124-129.
[沈永平, 刘时银. 天山南坡台兰河流域冰川物质及其对径流的影响. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(2): 124-129.]
/
〈 | 〉 |