• 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学资源学院,北京 100875
黄庆旭 (1984-), 男, 四川成都人, 博士生, 主要从事干旱化过程与人地关系仿真模拟研究。 E-mail: hqx@ires.cn

收稿日期: 2006-07-17

  修回日期: 2006-10-11

  网络出版日期: 2006-12-25


国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (2006CB400505)

Modelling Land Use Change Dynamics under Different Aridification Scenarios in Northern China

  • Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University; College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received date: 2006-07-17

  Revised date: 2006-10-11

  Online published: 2006-12-25

Supported by

National Basic Research Program of China, No.2006CB400505


目前,中国北方未来干旱化过程对土地系统的可能影响还不是十分清楚,这将在一定程度上限制中国北方土地资源的合理开发利用。因此,利用系统动力学 (SD) 的原理和方法,首先构建了中国北方未来干旱化过程影响下的土地利用变化系统动力学模型。进而在不同系统状态下,模拟了中国北方13省未来30年不同干旱化过程和社会经济情景共同影响下的区域土地利用结构变化过程。1989~2001年的模型检验结果表明该SD模型具有一定的可靠性,能在一定程度上理解土地利用系统的复杂变化过程。2000~2030年在干旱化过程转折、不明显和加速3种情景下的情景模拟结果发现,干旱化过程对中国北方未来水资源总量变化影响明显。在干旱化过程3种情景下,北方13省水资源总量从4686.17亿m3下降到3887.88亿m3,水资源正逐渐成为稀缺资源,并成为区域可持续发展的重要制约因素。在中国北方人口增加和经济发展的持续压力下,建筑用地和交通用地在未来增长迅速。城镇,交通等生活型用地与耕地资源之间的矛盾将会十分突出。因此,在未来的发展中,寻求合理的土地利用结构和格局,适应气候变化和社会经济因素的共同压力,将是中国北方区域可持续发展过程中必须面临和解决的问题。


黄庆旭, 史培军, 何春阳, 李晓兵 . 中国北方未来干旱化情景下的土地利用变化模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2006 , 61(12) : 1299 -1310 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200612007


Currently, in northern China, the impact of aridification on land system is not very clear, which would, to some extent, restrict the rational development and utilization of land resources. Therefore, based on the principle and method of system dynamics (SD), a SD model aims at simulating land use changes in northern China under different aridification scenarios and designed socio-economic status is developed in this paper. The accuracy assessment with historic data covering 1989 to 2001 indicates the SD model is helpful and reliable to understand the complex change process of land use system. The aridification scenarios in the next 30 years are defined as three types, from the reversal of aridification, gradual aridification to the acceleration of aridification with the increment of aridification degree. The results suggest that, in northern China, future aridification has great impact on the water resource, leading it to decline from 468.6 to 388.8 million m3 under different aridification scenarios. In other words, water resource is gradually becoming a rare resource restricting regional sustainable development. Furthermore, the results show that, under the pressure of population growth and economic development, the construction and traffic land will expand obviously and the conflict between cultivated land and construction and traffic land will be prominent. In all, in the future development, such issues as how to arrange land use structure and pattern rationally, and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socio-economic development together will be the main problems which would be faced and should be solved in the regional sustainable development in northern China.


[1] IPCC. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. In: Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

[2] Fu Congbin, An Zhisheng. Study of aridification in northern China: a global change issue facing directly demand of nation. Earth Science Frontiers, 2002, 9(2): 271-275.
[符淙斌, 安芷生. 我国北方干旱化研究: 面向国家需求的全球变化科学问题. 地学前缘, 2002, 9(2): 271-275.]

[3] Fu Congbin, An Zhisheng, Guo Weidong. Evolution of life-supporting environment in our nation and the predictive study of aridification in northern China (I): main scientific issues and achievements. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(11): 1157-1167.
[符淙斌, 安芷生, 郭维栋. 我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势预测研究 (I): 主要研究成果. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(11): 1157-1167.]

[4] Wei Jie, Ma Zhuguo. Comparison of Palmer drought severity index, percentage of precipitation anomaly and surface humid index. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(suppl.): 117-124.
[卫捷, 马柱国. Palmer干旱指数、地表湿润指数与降水距平的比较. 地理学报, 2003, 58(增刊): 117-124.]

[5] Liang Zexue, Jiang Jing. Aridificational and semi-aridificational tendency of the northern China from 1961 to 2000. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica, 2005, 25(1): 9-17.
[梁泽学, 江静. 中国北方地区1961~2000年干旱半干旱化趋势. 气象科学, 2005, 25(1): 9-17.]

[6] Xie An, Sun Yonggang, Bai Renhai. Arid climate trend over northeastern China and its response to global warming. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(suppl.): 75-82.
[谢安, 孙永罡, 白人海. 中国东北近50年干旱发展及对全球气候变暖的响应. 地理学报, 2003, 58(增刊): 75-82.]

[7] Guo Jianping, Gao Suhua, Mao Fei. Study on drought tendency and defending countermeasures in north part of China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2001, 10(3): 32-36.
[郭建平, 高素华, 毛飞. 中国北方干旱化趋势与防御对策. 自然灾害学报, 2001, 10(3): 32-36.]

[8] Zhou Guangsheng. NECT and global change: aridification, human impact and ecosystem. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2002.
[周广胜. 中国东北样带 (NECT) 与全球变化: 干旱化、人类活动于生态系统. 北京: 气象出版社, 2002.]

[9] Ren Liliang, Wang Meirong, Li Chunhong et al. Impacts of human activity on river runoff in the northern area of China. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 261: 204-217.

[10] Shi Yafeng, Shen Yongping, Li Dongliang et al. Discussion on the present climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Northwest China. Quaternary Sciences, 2003, 23(2): 152-164.
[施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋梁 等. 中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨. 第四纪研究, 2003, 23(2): 152-164.]

[11] Zhang De'er. Variation of dry-wet climate and severe drought events as revealed in the climate records of China over the past 1000 years. Science & Technology Review, 2004, (8): 47-49.
[张德二. 中国历史气候记录揭示的千年干湿变化和重大干旱事件. 科学导报, 2004, (8): 47-49.]

[12] Lambin E F, Baulies X, Boskstael N E et al. Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC). Implementation Strategy: IGBP Report. No.48, IHDP Report No.10. Stockholm. Bonn. IGBP, IHDP. 2000.

[13] Shi Peijun, Wang Jing'ai, Chen Jing et al. The future of human-environment interaction research in geography: lessons from the 6th open meeting of IHDP. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(2): 116-126.
[史培军, 王静爱, 陈婧 等. 当代地理学之人地相互作用研究的趋向: 全球变化人类行为计划 (IGBP) 第六届开放会议透视. 地理学报, 2006, 61(2): 116-126.]

[14] Wang Hao, Qin Dayong, Wang Jianhua et al. Study of carrying capacity of water resources in inland arid zone of Northwest China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2004, 19(2): 151-159.
[王浩, 秦大庸, 王建华 等. 西北内陆干旱区水资源承载能力研究. 自然资源学报, 2004, 19(2): 151-159.]

[15] Zhu Yizhong, Xia Jun, Tan Ge. A primary study on the theories and process of water resources carry capacity. Progress in Geography, 2002, 21(2): 180-188.
[朱一中, 夏军, 谈戈. 关于水资源承载力理论与方法的研究. 地理科学进展, 2002, 21(2): 180-188.]

[16] Li Qiaoping, Ding Yihui. Multi-year simulation of the east Asian monsoon and precipitation in China using a regional climate model and evaluation. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2004, 62(2): 141-153.
[李巧萍, 丁一汇. 区域气候模式对东亚季风和中国降水的多年模拟与性能检验. 气象学报, 2004, 62(2): 141-153.]

[17] Xiong Zhe. The multiyear surface climatology of RIEMS over East Asia. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2004, 9(2): 251-260.
[熊喆. 区域气候模式RIEMS对东亚气候的模拟. 气候与环境研究, 2004, 9(2): 251-260.]

[18] Poiani K A, Johnson W C. A spatial simulation model of hydrology and vegetation dynamics in semi-permanent prairie wetlands. Ecological Applications, 1993, 3(2): 279-293.

[19] Veldkamp A, Fresco L O. CLUE: a conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects. Ecological Modelling, 1996, 85: 253-270.

[20] Verburg P E, Veldkamp A, Frescoa L O. Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China. Applied Geography, 1999, 19: 211-233.

[21] Fan Zemeng, Yue Tianxiang, Liu Jiyuan et al. Spatial and temporal distribution of land over scenarios in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(6): 941-952.
[范泽孟, 岳天祥, 刘纪远 等. 中国土地覆盖时空变化未来情景分析. 地理学报, 2005, 60(6): 941-952.]

[22] Costanza R, Ruth M. Using dynamic modeling to scope environmental problems and build consensus. Environmental Management, 1998, 22: 183-195.

[23] Chen Zhengjiang. System Dynamics and Ecosystem in Arid Zone: Economic System Simulation. Xi'an: Xi'an Map Press, 2002.
[陈正江. 系统动力学与干旱区生态: 经济系统仿真. 西安: 西安地图出版社, 2002.]

[24] Rosimeiry Portela, Ida Rademacher. A dynamic model of patterns of deforestation and their effect on the ability of the Brazilian Amazonia to provide ecosystem services. Ecological Modelling, 2001, 143: 115-146.

[25] Lee Sang Yong. An integrated model for land use/transportation system performance: system dynamics modeling approach. University of Maryland College Park, 1995.

[26] Li Jinggang, He Chunyang, Shi Peijun et al. Change process of cultivated land and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(2): 274-282.
[李景刚, 何春阳, 史培军 等. 近20年中国北方13省耕地变化与驱动力. 地理学报, 2004, 59(2): 274-282.]

[27] He Chunyang, Shi Peijun, Li Jinggang et al. Scenarios simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(4): 599-607.
[何春阳, 史培军, 李景刚 等. 中国北方未来土地利用变化情景模拟. 地理学报, 2004, 59(4): 599-607.]

[28] http://dynamic-hps-inc.com/community/presentations/STELLA.aspx#

[29] Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. Trend of surface humid index in the arid area of northern China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2001, 59(6): 737-746.
[马柱国, 符淙斌. 中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析. 气象学报, 2001, 59(6): 737-746.]

[30] Ma Zhuguo, Huang Gang, Gan Wenqiang et al. Multi-scale temporal characteristics of the dryness/wetness over northern China during the last century. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2005, 29(5): 671-681.
[马柱国, 黄刚, 甘文强 等. 近代中国北方干湿变化趋势的多时段特征. 大气科学, 2005, 29(5): 671-681.]

[31] http://www.cws.net.cn/Journal/cwr/200305B/05.html.

[32] Du Guoming, Chang Haiqing. A prediction of the development scale of Baotou city. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2002, 16(4): 28-33.
[杜国明, 常海青. 包头市城市发展规模预测. 干旱区资源与环境, 2002, 16(4): 28-33.]

[33] Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Shi Guangyu et al. National assessment reports of climate change (I): climate change in China and its future trend. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(1): 3-8.
[丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉 等. 气候变化国家评估报告 (I): 中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1): 3-8.]

[34] 水利部长江水利委员会. 南水北调中线工程规划 (2001年修订)简介. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/gcgh/20030829/200308250056.htm, 2003-08-29.

[35] 水利部黄河水利委员会. 南水北调西线工程规划简介. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/gcgh/20030829/200308250061.htm, 2003-08-29.

[36] 水利部淮河水利委员会, 水利部海河水利委员会. 南水北调东线工程规划 (2001年修订) 简介. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/gcgh/20030829/200308250054.htm, 2003-08-29.

[37] 水利部南水北调规划设计管理局. 南水北调工程总体规划内容简介. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/gcgh/20030829/200308250041.htm, 2003-08-29.

[38] http://www.tj.xinhuanet.com/2006-03/23/content_6546441.htm.

[39] 中华人民共和国国家统计局. 统计数据. http://www.stats.gov.cn/.

[40] 联合国社会经济司人口处. 联合国世界人口展望: 1998年修订本. 纽约. 1998.

[41] 中国人口信息研究中心. 中国人口信息研究中心对中国人口发展的预测. http://www.cpirc.org.cn/tjsj/tjsj_cy_detail.asp?id=254.

[42] 中华人民共和国国家人口计划生育委员会. 2001~2050年全国总人口变动情况预测. http://www.cpirc.org.cn/tjsj/tjsj_cy_detail.asp?id=1422.

[43] 韩俊 (国务院发展研究中心). 多少粮食才安全. http://www.drcnet.com.cn/new_product/drcexpert1/showdoc.asp?doc_id=198590, 2005-07-12